Progression of non-obstructive coronary plaque: a practical CCTA-based risk score from the PARADIGM registry.

OBJECTIVES: No clear recommendations are endorsed by the different scientific societies on the clinical use of repeat coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in patients with non-obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). This study aimed to develop and validate a practical CCTA risk score to predict medium-term disease progression in patients at a low-to-intermediate probability of CAD. METHODS: Patients were part of the Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging (PARADIGM) registry. Specifically, 370 (derivation cohort) and 219 (validation cohort) patients with two repeat, clinically indicated CCTA scans, non-obstructive CAD, and absence of high-risk plaque (≥ 2 high-risk features) at baseline CCTA were included. Disease progression was defined as the new occurrence of ≥ 50% stenosis and/or high-risk plaque at follow-up CCTA. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, 104 (28%) patients experienced disease progression. The median time interval between the two CCTAs was 3.3 years (2.7-4.8). Odds ratios for disease progression derived from multivariable logistic regression were as follows: 4.59 (95% confidence interval: 1.69-12.48) for the number of plaques with spotty calcification, 3.73 (1.46-9.52) for the number of plaques with low attenuation component, 2.71 (1.62-4.50) for 25-49% stenosis severity, 1.47 (1.17-1.84) for the number of bifurcation plaques, and 1.21 (1.02-1.42) for the time between the two CCTAs. The C-statistics of the model were 0.732 (0.676-0.788) and 0.668 (0.583-0.752) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new CCTA-based risk score is a simple and practical tool that can predict mid-term CAD progression in patients with known non-obstructive CAD. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: The clinical implementation of this new CCTA-based risk score can help promote the management of patients with non-obstructive coronary disease in terms of timing of imaging follow-up and therapeutic strategies. KEY POINTS: • No recommendations are available on the use of repeat CCTA in patients with non-obstructive CAD. • This new CCTA score predicts mid-term CAD progression in patients with non-obstructive stenosis at baseline. • This new CCTA score can help guide the clinical management of patients with non-obstructive CAD.

Glycemic control is independently associated with rapid progression of coronary atherosclerosis in the absence of a baseline coronary plaque burden: a retrospective case-control study from the PARADIGM registry.

BACKGROUND: The baseline coronary plaque burden is the most important factor for rapid plaque progression (RPP) in the coronary artery. However, data on the independent predictors of RPP in the absence of a baseline coronary plaque burden are limited. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the predictors for RPP in patients without coronary plaques on baseline coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images. METHODS: A total of 402 patients (mean age: 57.6 ± 10.0 years, 49.3% men) without coronary plaques at baseline who underwent serial coronary CCTA were identified from the Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging (PARADIGM) registry and included in this retrospective study. RPP was defined as an annual change of ≥ 1.0%/year in the percentage atheroma volume (PAV). RESULTS: During a median inter-scan period of 3.6 years (interquartile range: 2.7-5.0 years), newly developed coronary plaques and RPP were observed in 35.6% and 4.2% of the patients, respectively. The baseline traditional risk factors, i.e., advanced age (≥ 60 years), male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, obesity, and current smoking status, were not significantly associated with the risk of RPP. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level (per 1% increase) measured at follow-up CCTA was independently associated with the annual change in the PAV (ß: 0.098, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.048-0.149; P < 0.001). The multiple logistic regression models showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level had an independent and positive association with the risk of RPP. The optimal predictive cut-off value of the hemoglobin A1c level for RPP was 7.05% (sensitivity: 80.0%, specificity: 86.7%; area under curve: 0.816 [95% CI: 0.574-0.999]; P = 0.017). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective case-control study, the glycemic control status was strongly associated with the risk of RPP in patients without a baseline coronary plaque burden. This suggests that regular monitoring of the glycemic control status might be helpful for preventing the rapid progression of coronary atherosclerosis irrespective of the baseline risk factors. Further randomized investigations are necessary to confirm the results of our study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

Association between Aortic Valve Calcification Progression and Coronary Atherosclerotic Plaque Volume Progression in the PARADIGM Registry.

Background Aortic valve calcification (AVC) is a key feature of aortic stenosis, and patients with aortic stenosis often have coronary -artery disease. Therefore, proving the association between the progression of AVC and coronary atherosclerosis could improve follow-up and treatment strategies. Purpose To explore the association between the progression of AVC and the progression of total and plaque volume composition from a large multicenter registry of serial coronary CT angiographic examinations. Materials and Methods A prospective multinational registry (PARADIGM) of consecutive participants who underwent serial coronary CT angiography at intervals of every 2 years or more was performed (January 2003-December 2015). AVC and the total and plaque volume composition at baseline and follow-up angiography were quantitatively analyzed. Plaque volumes were normalized by using the mean total analyzed vessel length of the study population. Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were constructed. Results Overall, 594 participants (mean age ± standard deviation, 62 years ± 10; 330 men) were included (mean interval between baseline and follow-up angiography, 3.9 years ± 1.5). At baseline, the AVC score was 31 Agatston units ± 117, and the normalized total plaque volume at baseline was 122 mm3 ± 219. After adjustment for age, sex, clinical risk factors, and medication use, AVC was independently associated with total plaque volume (standardized ß = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.16, 0.32; P < .001) and both calcified (ß = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.18, 0.34; P < .001) and noncalcified (ß = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.08, 0.25; P < .001) plaque volumes at baseline. The progression of AVC was associated with the progression of total plaque volume (ß = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.22; P = .01), driven solely by calcified plaque volume (ß = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.14, 0.34; P < .001) but not noncalcified plaque volumes (ß = -0.06; 95% CI: -0.14, 0.03; P = .17). Conclusion The overall burden of coronary atherosclerosis was associated with aortic valve calcification at baseline. However, the progression of aortic valve calcification was associated with only the progression of calcified plaque volume but not with the -progression of noncalcified plaque volume. Clinical trial registration no. NCT02803411 © RSNA, 2021 See also the editorial by Sinitsyn in this issue.

Quantitative assessment of coronary plaque volume change related to triglyceride glucose index: The Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography IMaging (PARADIGM) registry.

BACKGROUND: The association between triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and coronary atherosclerotic change remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the association between TyG index and coronary plaque progression (PP) using serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). METHODS: A total of 1143 subjects (aged 60.7 ± 9.3 years, 54.6% male) who underwent serial CCTA with available data on TyG index and diabetic status were analyzed from The Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography IMaging (PARADIGM) registry. PP was defined as plaque volume (PV) (mm3) at follow-up minus PV at index > 0. Annual change of PV (mm3/year) was defined as PV change divided by inter-scan period. Rapid PP was defined as the progression of percent atheroma volume (PV divided by vessel volume multiplied by 100) ≥ 1.0%/year. RESULTS: The median inter-scan period was 3.2 (range 2.6-4.4) years. All participants were stratified into three groups based on TyG index tertiles. The overall incidence of PP was 77.3%. Baseline total PV (group I [lowest]: 30.8 (0.0-117.7), group II: 47.2 (6.2-160.4), and group III [highest]: 57.5 (8.4-154.3); P < 0.001) and the annual change of total PV (group I: 5.7 (0.0-20.2), group II: 7.6 (0.5-23.5), and group III: 9.4 (1.4-27.7); P = 0.010) were different among all groups. The risk of PP (odds ratio [OR] 1.648; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.167-2.327; P = 0.005) and rapid PP (OR 1.777; 95% CI 1.288-2.451; P < 0.001) was increased in group III compared to that in group I. TyG index had a positive and significant association with an increased risk of PP and rapid PP after adjusting for confounding factors. CONCLUSION: TyG index is an independent predictive marker for the progression of coronary atherosclerosis. Clinical registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

Rationale and design of the Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography IMaging (PARADIGM) registry: A comprehensive exploration of plaque progression and its impact on clinical outcomes from a multicenter serial coronary computed tomographic angiography study.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with low-to-intermediate risk is not well characterized. Although earlier invasive serial studies have documented the progression of atherosclerotic burden, most were focused on high-risk patients only. The PARADIGM registry is a large, prospective, multinational dynamic observational registry of patients undergoing serial coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA). The primary aim of PARADIGM is to characterize the natural history of CAD in relation to clinical and laboratory data. DESIGN: The PARADIGM registry (ClinicalTrials.govNCT02803411) comprises ≥2,000 consecutive patients across 9 cluster sites in 7 countries. PARADIGM sites were chosen on the basis of adequate CCTA volume, site CCTA proficiency, local demographic characteristics, and medical facilities to ensure a broad-based sample of patients. Patients referred for clinically indicated CCTA will be followed up and enrolled if they had a second CCTA scan. Patients will also be followed up beyond serial CCTA performance to identify adverse CAD events that include cardiac and noncardiac death, myocardial infarction, unstable angina, target vessel revascularization, and CAD-related hospitalization. SUMMARY: The results derived from the PARADIGM registry are anticipated to add incremental insight into the changes in CCTA findings in accordance with the progression or regression of CAD that confer prognostic value beyond demographic and clinical characteristics.

Low frequency of cardniac arrhythmias and lack of structural heart disease in medically-naïve acromegaly patients: a prospective study at baseline and after 1 year of somatostatin analogs treatment.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of arrhythmias may be increased in acromegaly, but the pathophysiologic mechanisms involved are still unclear, and it has never been correlated with structural heart changes analyzed by the gold-standard method cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). AIM: Evaluate the frequency of arrhythmias in drug-naïve acromegaly patients at baseline and after 1 year of somatostatin analogs (SA) treatment and to correlate the occurrence of arrhythmias with the presence of structural heart changes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive drug-naïve acromegaly patients were recruited. The occurrence of arrhythmias and structural heart changes were studied through 24-h Holter and CMR, respectively, at baseline and after 1-year SA treatment. RESULTS: Thirty-six patients were studied at baseline and 28 were re-evaluated after 1 year of SA treatment. There were 13 females and median age was 48 years (20-73 years). Nine patients (32 %) were controlled after treatment. No sustained arrhythmias were reported in the 24-h Holter. No arrhythmia-related symptoms were observed. Only two patients presented left ventricular hypertrophy and three patients presented fibrosis at baseline. There was no correlation of the left ventricular mass with the number of episodes of arrhythmias and they were not more prevalent in the patients presenting cardiac fibrosis. CONCLUSION: We found no sustained arrhythmias and a lack of arrhythmia-related symptoms at baseline and after 1 year of SA treatment in a contemporary cohort of acromegaly patients that also present a low frequency of structural heart changes, indicating that these patients may have a lower frequency of heart disease than previously reported.

Prognostic value of myocardium perfusion imaging with a new reconstruction algorithm.

BACKGROUND: It has been demonstrated that a new reconstruction algorithm for myocardium perfusion imaging (MPI) allows faster acquisition with similar accuracy. The prognostic value of MPI performed with this software and short acquisition time is unknown. METHODS: To determine the prognostic value we followed 3184 consecutive MPI patients between March 2008 and March 2010. A 2-day protocol with low dose 99mTc-MIBI (10-12 mCi) and a 6-minute acquisition was used. Exercise stress was used in 62.6% of the studies. Scans were reconstructed using the software "Evolution for cardiac". Perfusion defects were quantified by summed stress score (SSS) and categorized in four groups: SSS0 = 0; SSS1 = 1-3; SSS2 = 4-8; and SSS3 ≥ 9. Patients were phone contacted every 6 months for follow up and hard events were defined as death or myocardial infarction (MI) and total events as hard events plus late revascularization. RESULTS: The mean radiation dose was <7 mSv/patient. Mean F/U was 33 ± 20 months; 140 of the patients were lost to follow up and 86 were censored due early revascularization (<60 days after MPS). There were 140 hard events: 89 deaths and 51 MI. Mean age was 61.5 ± 12.3 years and 57.7% were male. Hard event rate was 0.8%/year in patients with normal MPS and 3.7%/year in those with abnormal MPS. Patients with larger defects had nine times more hard events than patients with SSS = 0 (14.2% vs 1.6%). Revascularization was more frequent in patients with abnormal MPS than normal MPS (21.7% vs 3.9%; P < 0.001). Cox proportional hazard analysis showed that SSS was an independent predictor of hard events and revascularization. CONCLUSIONS: The use of reduced-dose, fast myocardial perfusion SPECT and the new processing algorithm lowers acquisition time and radiation exposure compared to conventional SPECT without compromising the well-established prognostic value of MPI.

Rapid Plaque Progression Is Independently Associated With Hyperglycemia and Low HDL Cholesterol in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease: A PARADIGM Study.

BACKGROUND: We assessed whether combinations of cardiometabolic risk factors independently predict coronary plaque progression (PP) and major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary artery disease. METHODS: Patients with known or suspected stable coronary artery disease (60.9±9.3 years, 55.4% male) undergoing serial coronary computed tomography angiographies (≥2 years apart), with clinical characterization and follow-up (N=1200), were analyzed from the PARADIGM study (Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging). Plaque volumes measured in coronary segments (≥2 mm in diameter) were summed to provide whole heart plaque volume (mm3) and percent atheroma volume (plaque volume/vessel volume×100; %) per patient at baseline and follow-up. Rapid PP was defined as a percent atheroma volume increase of ≥1.0%/y. Major adverse cardiovascular events included nonfatal myocardial infarction, death, and unplanned coronary revascularization. RESULTS: In an interscan period of 3.2 years (interquartile range, 1.9), rapid PP occurred in 341 patients (28%). At multivariable analysis, the combination of cardiometabolic risk factors defined as metabolic syndrome predicted rapid PP (odds ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.12-2.03]; P=0.007) together with older age, smoking habits, and baseline percent atheroma volume. Among single cardiometabolic variables, high fasting plasma glucose (diabetes or fasting plasma glucose >100 mg/dL) and low HDL-C (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; <40 mg/dL in males and <50 mg/dL in females) were independently associated with rapid PP, in particular when combined (odds ratio, 2.37 [95% CI, 1.56-3.61]; P<0.001). In a follow-up of 8.23 years (interquartile range, 5.92-9.53), major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 201 patients (17%). At multivariable Cox analysis, the combination of high fasting plasma glucose with high systemic blood pressure (treated hypertension or systemic blood pressure >130/85 mm Hg) was an independent predictor of events (hazard ratio, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.10-2.90]; P=0.018) together with family history, baseline percent atheroma volume, and rapid PP. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with stable coronary artery disease, the combination of hyperglycemia with low HDL-C is associated with rapid PP independently of other risk factors, baseline plaque burden, and treatment. The combination of hyperglycemia with high systemic blood pressure independently predicts the worse outcome beyond PP. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02803411.

Prediction of the development of new coronary atherosclerotic plaques with radiomics.

BACKGROUND: Radiomics is expected to identify imaging features beyond the human eye. We investigated whether radiomics can identify coronary segments that will develop new atherosclerotic plaques on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). METHODS: From a prospective multinational registry of patients with serial CCTA studies at ≥ 2-year intervals, segments without identifiable coronary plaque at baseline were selected and radiomic features were extracted. Cox models using clinical risk factors (Model 1), radiomic features (Model 2) and both clinical risk factors and radiomic features (Model 3) were constructed to predict the development of a coronary plaque, defined as total PV â€‹≥ â€‹1 â€‹mm3, at follow-up CCTA in each segment. RESULTS: In total, 9583 normal coronary segments were identified from 1162 patients (60.3 â€‹± â€‹9.2 years, 55.7% male) and divided 8:2 into training and test sets. At follow-up CCTA, 9.8% of the segments developed new coronary plaque. The predictive power of Models 1 and 2 was not different in both the training and test sets (C-index [95% confidence interval (CI)] of Model 1 vs. Model 2: 0.701 [0.690-0.712] vs. 0.699 [0.0.688-0.710] and 0.696 [0.671-0.725] vs. 0.0.691 [0.667-0.715], respectively, all p â€‹> â€‹0.05). The addition of radiomic features to clinical risk factors improved the predictive power of the Cox model in both the training and test sets (C-index [95% CI] of Model 3: 0.772 [0.762-0.781] and 0.767 [0.751-0.787], respectively, all p â€‹< â€‹00.0001 compared to Models 1 and 2). CONCLUSION: Radiomic features can improve the identification of segments that would develop new coronary atherosclerotic plaque. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0280341.

Abnormal exercise adaptation after varying severities of COVID-19: A controlled cross-sectional analysis of 392 survivors.

The multisystem impairment promoted by COVID-19 may be associated with a reduction in exercise capacity. Cardiopulmonary abnormalities can change across the acute disease severity spectrum. We aimed to verify exercise physiology differences between COVID-19 survivors and SARS-CoV-2-naïve controls and how illness severity influences exercise limitation. A single-centre cross-sectional analysis of prospectively collected data from COVID-19 survivors who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in their recovery phase (x = 50[36;72] days). Patients with COVID-19 were stratified according to severity as mild [M-Cov (outpatient)] vs severe/critical [SC-Cov(inpatients)] and were compared with SARS-CoV-2-naïve controls (N-Cov). Collected information included demographics, anthropometrics, previous physical exercise, comorbidities, lung function test and CPET parameters. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify low aerobic capacity (LAC) predictors post COVID-19. Of the 702 included patients, 310 (44.2%), 305 (43.4%) and 87 (12.4%) were N-Cov, M-Cov and SC-Cov, respectively. LAC was identified in 115 (37.1%), 102 (33.4%), and 66 (75.9%) of N-CoV, M-CoV and SC-CoV, respectively (p < 0.001). SC-Cov were older, heavier with higher body fat, more sedentary lifestyle, more hypertension and diabetes, lower forced vital capacity, higher prevalence of early anaerobiosis, ventilatory inefficiency and exercise-induced hypoxia than N-Cov. M-Cov had lower weight, fat mass, and coronary disease prevalence and did not demonstrate more CEPT abnormalities than N-Cov. After adjustment for covariates, SC-Cov was an independent predictor of LAC (OR = 2.7; 95% CI, 1.3-5.6). Almost two months after disease onset, SC-CoV presented several exercise abnormalities of oxygen uptake, ventilatory adaptation and gas exchange, including a high prevalence of LAC.Highlights Weeks after the acute disease phase, one-third of mild and three-quarters of severe and critical patients with COVID-19 presented a reduced aerobic capacity. Previous studies including SARS-CoV-1 survivors observed much lower values.A severe or critical COVID-19 case was an independent predictor for low aerobic capacity.In our sample, pre-COVID-19 exercise significantly reduced the odds of post-COVID-19 low aerobic capacity. Even severe or critical patients who exercised regularly had a prevalence of low aerobic capacity 2.5 times lower than those who did not have this routine before sickening.

Clinical and Coronary Plaque Predictors of Atherosclerotic Nonresponse to Statin Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Statins reduce the incidence of major cardiovascular events, but residual risk remains. The study examined the determinants of atherosclerotic statin nonresponse. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate factors associated with statin nonresponse-defined atherosclerosis progression in patients treated with statins. METHODS: The multicenter PARADIGM (Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography Imaging) registry included patients who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography ≥2 years apart, with whole-heart coronary tree quantification of vessel, lumen, and plaque, and matching of baseline and follow-up coronary segments and lesions. Patients with statin use at baseline and follow-up coronary computed tomography angiography were included. Atherosclerotic statin nonresponse was defined as an absolute increase in percent atheroma volume (PAV) of 1.0% or more per year. Furthermore, a secondary endpoint was defined by the additional requirement of progression of low-attenuation plaque or fibro-fatty plaque. RESULTS: The authors included 649 patients (age 62.0 ± 9.0 years, 63.5% male) on statin therapy and 205 (31.5%) experienced atherosclerotic statin nonresponse. Age, diabetes, hypertension, and all atherosclerotic plaque features measured at baseline scan (high-risk plaque [HRP] features, calcified and noncalcified PAV, and lumen volume) were significantly different between patients with and without atherosclerotic statin nonresponse, whereas only diabetes, number of HRP features, and noncalcified and calcified PAV were independently associated with atherosclerotic statin nonresponse (odds ratio [OR]: 1.41 [95% CI: 0.95-2.11], OR: 1.15 [95% CI: 1.09-1.21], OR: 1.06 [95% CI: 1.02-1.10], OR: 1.07 [95% CI: 1.03-1.12], respectively). For the secondary endpoint (N = 125, 19.2%), only noncalcified PAV and number of HRP features were the independent determinants (OR: 1.08 [95% CI: 1.03-1.13] and OR: 1.21 [95% CI: 1.06-1.21], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In patients treated with statins, baseline plaque characterization by plaque burden and HRP is associated with atherosclerotic statin nonresponse. Patients with the highest plaque burden including HRP were at highest risk for plaque progression, despite statin therapy. These patients may need additional therapies for further risk reduction.

Impact of statins based on high-risk plaque features on coronary plaque progression in mild stenosis lesions: results from the PARADIGM study.

AIMS: To investigate the impact of statins on plaque progression according to high-risk coronary atherosclerotic plaque (HRP) features and to identify predictive factors for rapid plaque progression in mild coronary artery disease (CAD) using serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed mild stenosis (25-49%) CAD, totaling 1432 lesions from 613 patients (mean age, 62.2 years, 63.9% male) and who underwent serial CCTA at a ≥2 year inter-scan interval using the Progression of AtheRosclerotic PlAque DetermIned by Computed TomoGraphic Angiography Imaging (NCT02803411) registry. The median inter-scan period was 3.5 ± 1.4 years; plaques were quantitatively assessed for annualized percent atheroma volume (PAV) and compositional plaque volume changes according to HRP features, and the rapid plaque progression was defined by the ≥90th percentile annual PAV. In mild stenotic lesions with ≥2 HRPs, statin therapy showed a 37% reduction in annual PAV (0.97 ± 2.02 vs. 1.55 ± 2.22, P = 0.038) with decreased necrotic core volume and increased dense calcium volume compared to non-statin recipient mild lesions. The key factors for rapid plaque progression were ≥2 HRPs [hazard ratio (HR), 1.89; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-3.49; P = 0.042], current smoking (HR, 1.69; 95% CI 1.09-2.57; P = 0.017), and diabetes (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.07-2.22; P = 0.020). CONCLUSION: In mild CAD, statin treatment reduced plaque progression, particularly in lesions with a higher number of HRP features, which was also a strong predictor of rapid plaque progression. Therefore, aggressive statin therapy might be needed even in mild CAD with higher HRPs. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

Risk factors based vessel-specific prediction for stages of coronary artery disease using Bayesian quantile regression machine learning method: Results from the PARADIGM registry.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The recently introduced Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) machine-learning method enables comprehensive analyzing the relationship among complex clinical variables. We analyzed the relationship between multiple cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and different stages of coronary artery disease (CAD) using the BQR model in a vessel-specific manner. METHODS: From the data of 1,463 patients obtained from the PARADIGM (NCT02803411) registry, we analyzed the lumen diameter stenosis (DS) of the three vessels: left anterior descending (LAD), left circumflex (LCx), and right coronary artery (RCA). Two models for predicting DS and DS changes were developed. Baseline CV risk factors, symptoms, and laboratory test results were used as the inputs. The conditional 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 90% quantile functions of the maximum DS and DS change of the three vessels were estimated using the BQR model. RESULTS: The 90th percentiles of the DS of the three vessels and their maximum DS change were 41%-50% and 5.6%-7.3%, respectively. Typical anginal symptoms were associated with the highest quantile (90%) of DS in the LAD; diabetes with higher quantiles (75% and 90%) of DS in the LCx; dyslipidemia with the highest quantile (90%) of DS in the RCA; and shortness of breath showed some association with the LCx and RCA. Interestingly, High-density lipoprotein cholesterol showed a dynamic association along DS change in the per-patient analysis. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the clinical utility of the BQR model for evaluating the comprehensive relationship between risk factors and baseline-grade CAD and its progression.

How early can atherosclerosis be detected by coronary CT angiography? Insights from quantitative CT analysis of serial scans in the PARADIGM trial.

BACKGROUND: Non-obstructing small coronary plaques may not be well recognized by expert readers during coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) evaluation. Recent developments in atherosclerosis imaging quantitative computed tomography (AI-QCT) enabled by machine learning allow for whole-heart coronary phenotyping of atherosclerosis, but its diagnostic role for detection of small plaques on CCTA is unknown. METHODS: We performed AI-QCT in patients who underwent serial CCTA in the multinational PARADIGM study. AI-QCT results were verified by a level III experienced reader, who was blinded to baseline and follow-up status of CCTA. This retrospective analysis aimed to characterize small plaques on baseline CCTA and evaluate their serial changes on follow-up imaging. Small plaques were defined as a total plaque volume <50 â€‹mm3. RESULTS: A total of 99 patients with 502 small plaques were included. The median total plaque volume was 6.8 â€‹mm3 (IQR 3.5-13.9 â€‹mm3), most of which was non-calcified (median 6.2 â€‹mm3; 2.9-12.3 â€‹mm3). The median age at the time of baseline CCTA was 61 years old and 63% were male. The mean interscan period was 3.8 â€‹± â€‹1.6 years. On follow-up CCTA, 437 (87%) plaques were present at the same location as small plaques on baseline CCTA; 72% were larger and 15% decreased in volume. The median total plaque volume and non-calcified plaque volume increased to 18.9 â€‹mm3 (IQR 8.3-45.2 â€‹mm3) and 13.8 â€‹mm3 (IQR 5.7-33.4 â€‹mm3), respectively, among plaques that persisted on follow-up CCTA. Small plaques no longer visualized on follow-up CCTA were significantly more likely to be of lower volume, shorter in length, non-calcified, and more distal in the coronary artery, as compared with plaques that persisted at follow-up. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective analysis from the PARADIGM study, small plaques (<50 â€‹mm3) identified by AI-QCT persisted at the same location and were often larger on follow-up CCTA.

Effects of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system inhibitors on coronary atherosclerotic plaques: The PARADIGM registry.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Inhibition of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone-System (RAAS) has been hypothesized to improve endothelial function and reduce plaque inflammation, however, their impact on the progression of coronary atherosclerosis is unclear. We aim to study the effects of RAAS inhibitor on plaque progression and composition assessed by serial coronary CT angiography (CCTA). METHODS: We performed a prospective, multinational study consisting of a registry of patients without history of CAD, who underwent serial CCTAs. Patients using RAAS inhibitors were propensity matched to RAAS inhibitor naïve patients based on clinical and CCTA characteristics at baseline. Atherosclerotic plaques in CCTAs were quantitatively analyzed for percent atheroma volume (PAV) according to plaque composition. Interactions between RAAS inhibitor use and baseline PAV on plaque progression were assessed in the unmatched cohort using a multivariate linear regression model. RESULTS: Of 1248 patients from the registry, 299 RAAS inhibitor taking patients were matched to 299 RAAS inhibitor naïve patients. Over a mean interval of 3.9 years, there was no significant difference in annual progression of total PAV between RAAS inhibitor naïve vs taking patients (0.75 vs 0.79%/year, p = 0.66). With interaction testing in the unmatched cohort, however, RAAS inhibitor use was significantly associated with lower non-calcified plaque progression (Beta coefficient -0.100, adjusted p = 0.038) with higher levels of baseline PAV. CONCLUSIONS: The use of RAAS inhibitors over a period of nearly 4 years did not significantly impact on total atherosclerotic plaque progression or various plaque components. However, interaction testing to assess the differential effect of RAAS inhibition based on baseline PAV suggested a significant decrease in progression of non-calcified plaque in patients with a higher burden of baseline atherosclerosis, which should be considered hypothesis generating.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of CCTA in SUS, as Compared to Other Non-Invasive Imaging Modalities in Suspected Obstructive CAD. / Análise da Custo-Efetividade da Angiotomografia Coronariana no SUS, em Comparação com Outros Métodos Não Invasivos na Suspeita de DAC Estável.

BACKGROUND: The Brazilian public health system does not include computed tomography angiography (CTA). OBJECTIVE: Rank, according to the Brazilian public health system, the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD), combining exercise tests (ET), myocardial scintigraphy (MS), stress echocardiography (SE), and CTA in a hypothetical intermediate pre-test probability cohort of patients. METHODS: This study implemented a cost-effectiveness analysis through a decision tree. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and net benefit were analyzed by adopting multiple thresholds of willingness to pay, from 0.05 to 1 GDP per capita per correct diagnosis. In sequential tests, a second confirmatory test was performed only when the first was positive. RESULTS: After excluding dominated or extended dominance diagnostic strategies, the efficiency frontier consisted of three strategies: ET, ET followed by SE, and SE followed by CTA, the last being the most cost-effective strategy. Through the net benefit, the ranking of the most cost-effective strategies varied according to willingness to pay. CONCLUSIONS: Using current concepts of health technology assessment, this study provides a ranking for decision-making concerning which diagnostic strategy to use in a population with an intermediate pre-test risk for CAD. With a feasible cost estimate adopted for CTA, the impact of including this to the list of the diagnostic arsenal would represent a cost-effective strategy in most of the evaluated scenarios with broad variations in the willingness to pay.

FUNDAMENTO: Atualmente o sistema de saúde público brasileiro (SUS) não contempla a angiotomografia de coronárias. OBJETIVOS: Ranquear sob a perspectiva do SUS, a custo-efetividade de estratégias diagnósticas combinando teste ergométrico, cintilografia miocárdica, ecocardiograma por estresse e angiotomografia de coronárias para o diagnóstico de doença arterial coronariana em uma coorte hipotética de pacientes com probabilidade pré-teste intermediária. MÉTODOS: Análise de custo-efetividade por meio de árvore de decisão. Foram analisados a relação de custo-efetividade incremental e o benefício líquido em saúde das estratégias diagnósticas, com a adoção de múltiplos limiares de disposição a pagar entre 0,05 e 1 PIB per capita por diagnóstico correto. Nos casos de testes sequenciais, um segundo teste confirmatório era realizado quando o primeiro fosse positivo. RESULTADOS: Após exclusão das estratégias diagnósticas dominadas ou com dominância estendida, a fronteira de eficiência foi composta por três estratégias: teste ergométrico, teste ergométrico seguido de ecocardiograma de estresse, e ecocardiograma de estresse seguido de angiotomografia de coronárias, sendo esta última a estratégia mais custo-efetiva. Pelo critério do benefício líquido, o ranqueamento das estratégias mais custo-efetivas variou conforme a disposição a pagar. CONCLUSÃO: Utilizando conceitos atuais de avaliação de tecnologias em saúde, este estudo fornece um ranqueamento para a tomada de decisão sobre qual estratégia diagnóstica utilizar, em uma população com risco pré-teste intermediário para DAC. Com estimativa factível de custos para a ATC, o impacto da inclusão desta ao rol do arsenal diagnóstico representaria uma estratégia custo-efetiva na maioria dos cenários avaliados nas variações de disposição a pagar.

Computational Fluid Dynamics to Assess the Future Risk of Ascending Aortic Aneurysms. / Fluidodinâmica Computacional na Avaliação do Risco Futuro de Aneurismas de Aorta Ascendente.

BACKGROUND: A methodology to identify patients with ascending aortic aneurysm (AsAA) under high risk for aortic growth is not completely defined. OBJETIVE: This research seeks to numerically characterize the aortic blood flow by relating the resulting mechanical stress distribution with AsAA growth. METHODS: Analytical, observational, single-center study in which a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) protocol was applied to aortic computed tomography angiogram (CTA) images of patients with AsAA. Two CTA exams taken at a minimum interval of one year were obtained. From the CTA-gathered images, three-dimensional models were built, and clinical data were registered. Study of velocity field and coherent structures (vortices) was performed aiming to relate them to the presence or absence of aneurysm growth, as well as comparing them to the patients' clinical data. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the normality of the distribution, and the non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank test, for non-normal distribution, was used to compare the paired data of the aortic angles. Statistical significance was set at 5%. RESULTS: The incident jet in the aortic wall generated recirculation areas in the posterior region of the jet, inducing complex vortices formation in the group with aneurysm growth, leading to an average pressure increase in the ascending aortic wall between exams. In the group without aneurysm growth, the average pressure decreased. CONCLUSION: This pilot study showed that CFD based on CTA may in the near future be a tool to help identify flow patterns associated with AsAA remodeling process.

FUNDAMENTOS: Uma metodologia para identificação de pacientes portadores de aneurisma de aorta ascendente (AAAs) sob alto risco de remodelamento aórtico não está completamente definida. OBJETIVO: Esta pesquisa objetiva caracterizar numericamente o fluxo sanguíneo aórtico, relacionando a distribuição do estresse mecânico resultante com o crescimento de AAAs. MÉTODOS: Estudo analítico, observacional, unicêntrico, em que um protocolo de fluidodinâmica computacional (CFD - Computacional Fluid Dynamics) foi aplicado a imagens de angiotomografia computadorizada (ATC) de aorta de pacientes portadores de AAAs. Duas ATC de aorta com pelo menos um ano de intervalo foram obtidas. Dados clínicos dos pacientes foram registrados e, a partir das imagens de ATC, foram gerados modelos tridimensionais. Foram realizados estudos do campo de velocidade e estruturas coerentes (vórtices) com o objetivo de relacioná-los ao crescimento ou não do aneurisma e, posteriormente, compará-los com os dados clínicos dos pacientes. O teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov foi utilizado para avaliar a normalidade da amostra e o teste não-paramétrico Wilcoxon signed-rank foi aplicado para comparações de dados pareados entre os ângulos aórticos. A significância estatística foi fixada em 5%. RESULTADOS: Para o grupo que apresentou crescimento do aneurisma, a incidência do jato na parede aórtica gerou áreas de recirculação posterior ao jato, induzindo à formação de vórtices complexos, ocasionando um incremento na pressão média no endotélio aórtico. O grupo sem crescimento do aneurisma apresentou diminuição na pressão média. CONCLUSÃO: Este estudo piloto mostrou que a CFD baseada em ATC pode, em um futuro próximo, ser uma ferramenta auxiliar na identificação dos padrões de fluxo associados ao processo de remodelamento de AAAs.

Analysis of Three-Dimensional Scar Architecture and Conducting Channels by High-Resolution Contrast-Enhanced Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Chagas Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to describe the morphology of the border zone of viable myocardium surrounded by scarring in patients with Chagas heart disease and study their association with clinical events. METHODS: Adult patients with Chagas heart disease (n=22; 55% females; 65.5 years, SD 10.1) were included. Patients underwent high-resolution contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance using myocardial delayed enhancement with postprocessing analysis to identify the core scar area and border zone channels number, mass, and length. The association between border zone channel parameters and the combined end-point (cardiovascular mortality or internal cardiac defibrillator implantation) was tested by multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. The significance level was set at 0.05. Data are presented as the mean (standard deviation [SD]) or median (interquartile range). RESULTS: A total of 44 border zone channels (1[1-3] per patient) were identified. The border zone channel mass per patient was 1.25 (0.48-4.39) g, and the extension in layers of the border zone channels per patient was 2.4 (1.0-4.25). Most border zone channels were identified in the midwall location. Six patients presented the studied end-point during a mean follow-up of 4.9 years (SD 1.6). Border zone channel extension in layers was associated with the studied end-point independent from left ventricular ejection fraction or fibrosis mass (HR=2.03; 95% CI 1.15-3.60). CONCLUSIONS: High-resolution contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance can identify border zone channels in patients with Chagas heart disease. Moreover, border zone channel extension was independently associated with clinical events.

Longitudinal quantitative assessment of coronary atherosclerosis related to normal systolic blood pressure maintenance in the absence of established cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerosis-related adverse events are commonly observed even in conditions with low cardiovascular (CV) risk. Longitudinal data regarding the association of normal systolic blood pressure maintenance (SBPmaintain ) with coronary plaque volume changes (PVC) has been limited in adults without traditional CV disease. HYPOTHESIS: Normal SBPmaintain is important to attenuate coronary atherosclerosis progression in adults without baseline CV disease. METHODS: We analyzed 95 adults (56.7 ± 8.5 years; 40.0% men) without baseline CV disease who underwent serial coronary computed tomographic angiography with mean 3.5 years of follow-up. All participants were divided into two groups of normal SBPmaintain (follow-up SBP < 120 mm Hg) and ≥elevated SBPmaintain (follow-up SBP ≥ 120 mm Hg). Annualized PVC was defined as PVC divided by the interscan period. RESULTS: Compared to participants with normal SBPmaintain , those with ≥elevated SBPmaintain had higher annualized total PVC (mm3 /year) (0.0 [0.0-2.2] vs. 4.1 [0.0-13.0]; p < .001). Baseline total plaque volume (ß = .10) and the levels of SBPmaintain (ß = .23) and follow-up high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (ß = -0.28) were associated with annualized total PVC (all p < .05). The optimal cutoff of SBPmaintain for predicting plaque progression was 118.5 mm Hg (sensitivity: 78.2%, specificity: 62.5%; area under curve: 0.700; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59-0.81; p < .05). SBPmaintain ≥ 118.5 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR]: 4.03; 95% CI: 1.51-10.75) and baseline total plaque volume (OR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06) independently influenced coronary plaque progression (all p < .05). CONCLUSION: Normal SBPmaintain is substantial to attenuate coronary atherosclerosis progression in conditions without established CV disease.

Marked variation in atherosclerotic plaque progression between the major epicardial coronary arteries.

AIMS: Atherosclerosis develops progressively and worsens over time, yet event risk patterns vary in the left circumflex (LCx), right coronary artery (RCA) and left anterior descending (LAD). The aim of this analysis was to examine varying progressive disease alterations between the three major coronary arteries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients were included from a prospective, international registry of consecutive patients who underwent serial CCTA at a median interval of 3.3 years. Annual progression of quantitative total and compositional plaque volume were compared between the three coronary arteries (LCx, LAD, and RCA). Other analyses compared stenosis ≥50% and new high-risk plaque (HRP; ≥2 of the following: spotty calcification, positive remodelling, napkin-ring sign, and low-attenuation plaque) on follow-up. Generalized estimating equations and marginal Cox regression models were used to compare progression, with covariate adjustment by the baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score, statin use, and plaque burden. Quantitative plaque measurements were calculated in 1344 patients (age 60 ± 9 years, 57% men). Plaque progression occurred less often in the LCx (41.0%) as compared to the RCA (52.7%) and LAD (77.4%, P < 0.001). Odds for annual plaque burden increase ≥population mean were 1.98- and 1.43-fold as high in the LAD (P < 0.001) and RCA (P < 0.001) as compared to the LCx. Similarly, the LAD was associated with a 2.45 higher risk of progression to obstructive CAD (P < 0.001), as compared to the LCx; with no differences between the RCA and LCx (P = 0.13). New HRP lesions formed least often in the LCx (3.4%), followed by the RCA (8.1%) and most often in the LAD (10.1%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reveal novel insights into varied patterns of atherosclerotic plaque progression within the LCx as compared to the other epicardial coronary arteries. These varied patterns reflect differing stages in the disease process or differing pathogenic milieu across the coronary arteries.