An immune-protein score combining TRAIL, IP-10 and CRP for predicting severe COVID-19 disease.

COVID-19 patients are oftentimes over- or under-treated due to a deficit in predictive management tools. This study reports derivation of an algorithm that integrates the host levels of TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP into a single numeric score that is an early indicator of severe outcome for COVID-19 patients and can identify patients at-risk to deteriorate. 394 COVID-19 patients were eligible; 29% meeting a severe outcome (intensive care unit admission/non-invasive or invasive ventilation/death). The score's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.86, superior to IL-6 (AUC 0.77; p = 0.033) and CRP (AUC 0.78; p < 0.001). Likelihood of severe outcome increased significantly (p < 0.001) with higher scores. The score differentiated severe patients who further deteriorated from those who improved (p = 0.004) and projected 14-day survival probabilities (p < 0.001). The score accurately predicted COVID-19 patients at-risk for severe outcome, and therefore has potential to facilitate timely care escalation and de-escalation and appropriate resource allocation.

Antibiotic misuse in respiratory tract infections in children and adults-a prospective, multicentre study (TAILORED Treatment).

Respiratory tract infections (RTI) are more commonly caused by viral pathogens in children than in adults. Surprisingly, little is known about antibiotic use in children as compared to adults with RTI. This prospective study aimed to determine antibiotic misuse in children and adults with RTI, using an expert panel reference standard, in order to prioritise the target age population for antibiotic stewardship interventions. We recruited children and adults who presented at the emergency department or were hospitalised with clinical presentation of RTI in The Netherlands and Israel. A panel of three experienced physicians adjudicated a reference standard diagnosis (i.e. bacterial or viral infection) for all the patients using all available clinical and laboratory information, including a 28-day follow-up assessment. The cohort included 284 children and 232 adults with RTI (median age, 1.3 years and 64.5 years, respectively). The proportion of viral infections was larger in children than in adults (209(74%) versus 89(38%), p < 0.001). In case of viral RTI, antibiotics were prescribed (i.e. overuse) less frequently in children than in adults (77/209 (37%) versus 74/89 (83%), p < 0.001). One (1%) child and three (2%) adults with bacterial infection were not treated with antibiotics (i.e. underuse); all were mild cases. This international, prospective study confirms major antibiotic overuse in patients with RTI. Viral infection is more common in children, but antibiotic overuse is more frequent in adults with viral RTI. Together, these findings support the need for effective interventions to decrease antibiotic overuse in RTI patients of all ages.

A host-protein signature is superior to other biomarkers for differentiating between bacterial and viral disease in patients with respiratory infection and fever without source: a prospective observational study.

Bacterial and viral infections often present with similar symptoms. Etiologic misdiagnosis can alter the trajectory of patient care, including antibiotic overuse. A host-protein signature comprising tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL), interferon gamma-induced protein-10 (IP-10), and C-reactive protein (CRP) was validated recently for differentiating bacterial from viral disease. However, a focused head-to-head comparison of its diagnostic performance against other biomarker candidates for this indication was lacking in patients with respiratory infection and fever without source. We compared the signature to other biomarkers and prediction rules using specimens collected prospectively at two secondary medical centers from children and adults. Inclusion criteria included fever > 37.5 °C, symptom duration ≤ 12 days, and presentation with respiratory infection or fever without source. Comparator method was based on expert panel adjudication. Signature and biomarker cutoffs and prediction rules were predefined. Of 493 potentially eligible patients, 314 were assigned unanimous expert panel diagnosis and also had sufficient specimen volume. The resulting cohort comprised 175 (56%) viral and 139 (44%) bacterial infections. Signature sensitivity 93.5% (95% CI 89.1-97.9%), specificity 94.3% (95% CI 90.7-98.0%), or both were significantly higher (all p values < 0.01) than for CRP, procalcitonin, interleukin-6, human neutrophil lipocalin, white blood cell count, absolute neutrophil count, and prediction rules. Signature identified as viral 50/57 viral patients prescribed antibiotics, suggesting potential to reduce antibiotic overuse by 88%. The host-protein signature demonstrated superior diagnostic performance in differentiating viral from bacterial respiratory infections and fever without source. Future utility studies are warranted to validate potential to reduce antibiotic overuse.

Host biomarkers and combinatorial scores for the detection of serious and invasive bacterial infection in pediatric patients with fever without source.

BACKGROUND: Improved tools are required to detect bacterial infection in children with fever without source (FWS), especially when younger than 3 years old. The aim of the present study was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of a host signature combining for the first time two viral-induced biomarkers, tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) and interferon γ-induced protein-10 (IP-10), with a bacterial-induced one, C-reactive protein (CRP), to reliably predict bacterial infection in children with fever without source (FWS) and to compare its performance to routine individual biomarkers (CRP, procalcitonin (PCT), white blood cell and absolute neutrophil counts, TRAIL, and IP-10) and to the Labscore. METHODS: This was a prospective diagnostic accuracy study conducted in a single tertiary center in children aged less than 3 years old presenting with FWS. Reference standard etiology (bacterial or viral) was assigned by a panel of three independent experts. Diagnostic accuracy (AUC, sensitivity, specificity) of host individual biomarkers and combinatorial scores was evaluated in comparison to reference standard outcomes (expert panel adjudication and microbiological diagnosis). RESULTS: 241 patients were included. 68 of them (28%) were diagnosed with a bacterial infection and 5 (2%) with invasive bacterial infection (IBI). Labscore, ImmunoXpert, and CRP attained the highest AUC values for the detection of bacterial infection, respectively 0.854 (0.804-0.905), 0.827 (0.764-0.890), and 0.807 (0.744-0.869). Labscore and ImmunoXpert outperformed the other single biomarkers with higher sensitivity and/or specificity and showed comparable performance to one another although slightly reduced sensitivity in children < 90 days of age. CONCLUSION: Labscore and ImmunoXpert demonstrate high diagnostic accuracy for safely discriminating bacterial infection in children with FWS aged under and over 90 days, supporting their adoption in the assessment of febrile patients.

Host test based on tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, interferon gamma-induced protein-10 and C-reactive protein for differentiating bacterial and viral respiratory tract infections in adults: diagnostic accuracy study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of a test (called BV), integrating the blood levels of three immune proteins into a score, to differentiate bacterial from viral infection among adults with suspected lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). METHODS: Prospective diagnostic accuracy study, enrolling febrile adults >18 years with LRTI signs or symptoms for less than 7 days presenting to several hospitals' emergency departments in Israel. The main exclusion criterion was immunodeficiency. Reference standard diagnosis (bacterial/viral/indeterminate) was based on three experts independently reviewing comprehensive patient data including follow-up data. BV generated three results: viral infection or other nonbacterial condition (0 ≤ score < 35), equivocal (35 ≤ score ≤ 65) and bacterial infection including co-infection (65 < score ≤ 100). BV performance was assessed against the reference standard with indeterminate reference standard and equivocal BV cases removed. RESULTS: Of 490 enrolled patients, 415 met eligibility criteria (median age 56 years, interquartile range 35). The reference standard classified 104 patients as bacterial, 210 as viral and 101 as indeterminate. BV was equivocal in 9.6% (30/314). Excluding indeterminate reference standard diagnoses and equivocal BV results, BV's sensitivity for bacterial infection was 98.1% (101/103; 95% confidence interval 95.4-100), specificity 88.4% (160/181; 83.7-93.1) and negative predictive value 98.8% (160/162; 97.1-100). DISCUSSION: BV exhibited high diagnostic performance for febrile adults with suspected LRTI among patients with reference standard diagnoses of bacterial or viral LRTI.

A point-of-need platform for rapid measurement of a host-protein score that differentiates bacterial from viral infection: Analytical evaluation.

The objective was to evaluate the analytical performance of a new point-of-need platform for rapid and accurate measurement of a host-protein score that differentiates between bacterial and viral infection. The system comprises a dedicated test cartridge (MeMed BV®) and an analyzer (MeMed Key®). In each run, three host proteins (TRAIL, IP-10 and CRP) are measured quantitatively and a combinational score (0-100) computed that indicates the likelihood of Bacterial versus Viral infection (BV score). Serum samples collected from patients with acute infection representing viral (0 ≤ score < 35), equivocal (35 ≤ score ≤ 65), or bacterial (65 < score ≤ 100) scores based on pre-defined score cutoffs were employed for the analytical evaluation studies as well as samples from healthy individuals. To assess reproducibility, triplicate runs were conducted at 3 different sites, on 2 analyzers per site over 5 non-consecutive days. Lower limit of quantitation (LLoQ) and analytical measurement range were established utilizing recombinant proteins. Sample stability was evaluated using patient samples representative of BV score range (0-100). MeMed Key® and MeMed BV® passed the acceptance criteria for each study. In the reproducibility study, TRAIL, IP-10 and CRP measurements ranged with coefficient of variation from 9.7 to 12.7%, 4.6 to 6.2% and 5.0 to 11.6%, respectively. LLoQ concentrations were established as 15 pg/mL, 100 pg/mL and 1 mg/L for TRAIL, IP-10 and CRP, respectively. In summary, the analytical performance reported here, along with diagnostic accuracy established in the Apollo clinical validation study (NCT04690569), supports that MeMed BV® run on MeMed Key® can serve as a tool to assist clinicians in differentiating between bacterial and viral infection.

A host signature based on TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP for reducing antibiotic overuse in children by differentiating bacterial from viral infections: a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Identifying infection aetiology is essential for appropriate antibiotic use. Previous studies have shown that a host-protein signature consisting of TNF-related apoptosis-induced ligand (TRAIL), interferon-γ-induced protein-10 (IP-10), and C-reactive protein (CRP) can accurately differentiate bacterial from viral infections. METHODS: This prospective, multicentre cohort study, entitled AutoPilot-Dx, aimed to validate signature performance and to estimate its potential impact on antibiotic use across a broad paediatric population (>90 days to 18 years) with respiratory tract infections, or fever without source, at emergency departments and wards in Italy and Germany. Infection aetiology was adjudicated by experts based on clinical and laboratory investigations, including multiplex PCR and follow-up data. RESULTS: In total, 1140 patients were recruited (February 2017-December 2018), of which 1008 met the eligibility criteria (mean age 3.5 years, 41.9% female). Viral and bacterial infections were adjudicated for 628 (85.8%) and 104 (14.2%) children, respectively; 276 patients were assigned an indeterminate reference standard outcome. For the 732 children with reference standard aetiology, the signature discriminated bacterial from viral infections with a sensitivity of 93.7% (95%CI 88.7-98.7), a specificity of 94.2% (92.2-96.1), positive predictive value of 73.0% (65.0-81.0), and negative predictive value of 98.9% (98.0-99.8); in 9.8% the test results were equivocal. The signature performed consistently across different patient subgroups and detected bacterial immune responses in viral PCR-positive patients. CONCLUSIONS: The findings validate the high diagnostic performance of the TRAIL/IP-10/CRP signature in a broad paediatric cohort, and support its potential to reduce antibiotic overuse in children with viral infections.

The diagnostic value of nasal microbiota and clinical parameters in a multi-parametric prediction model to differentiate bacterial versus viral infections in lower respiratory tract infections.

BACKGROUND: The ability to accurately distinguish bacterial from viral infection would help clinicians better target antimicrobial therapy during suspected lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI). Although technological developments make it feasible to rapidly generate patient-specific microbiota profiles, evidence is required to show the clinical value of using microbiota data for infection diagnosis. In this study, we investigated whether adding nasal cavity microbiota profiles to readily available clinical information could improve machine learning classifiers to distinguish bacterial from viral infection in patients with LRTI. RESULTS: Various multi-parametric Random Forests classifiers were evaluated on the clinical and microbiota data of 293 LRTI patients for their prediction accuracies to differentiate bacterial from viral infection. The most predictive variable was C-reactive protein (CRP). We observed a marginal prediction improvement when 7 most prevalent nasal microbiota genera were added to the CRP model. In contrast, adding three clinical variables, absolute neutrophil count, consolidation on X-ray, and age group to the CRP model significantly improved the prediction. The best model correctly predicted 85% of the 'bacterial' patients and 82% of the 'viral' patients using 13 clinical and 3 nasal cavity microbiota genera (Staphylococcus, Moraxella, and Streptococcus). CONCLUSIONS: We developed high-accuracy multi-parametric machine learning classifiers to differentiate bacterial from viral infections in LRTI patients of various ages. We demonstrated the predictive value of four easy-to-collect clinical variables which facilitate personalized and accurate clinical decision-making. We observed that nasal cavity microbiota correlate with the clinical variables and thus may not add significant value to diagnostic algorithms that aim to differentiate bacterial from viral infections.

Differential Serum and Urine CRP, IP-10, and TRAIL Levels in Pediatric Urinary Tract Infection.

Background: It is estimated that clinical evaluation and urinalysis are unable to diagnose >10% of urinary tract infections (UTI) in young children. TNF-related apoptosis induced ligand (TRAIL), interferon gamma induced protein-10 (IP-10), and C-reactive protein (CRP) exhibit differential expression in the blood in response to bacterial vs. viral infection. We assessed if the urinary and serum levels of these host biomarkers discriminate UTI, nephronia, and response to antibiotic treatment. Methods: Hospitalized febrile children aged <18 years with suspected UTI based on abnormal urinalysis were recruited prospectively between 2016 and 2018; also, non-febrile controls were recruited. Following urine culture results and hospitalization course, participants were divided into three groups based on AAP criteria and expert adjudication: UTI, viral infection, and indeterminate. Results: Seventy-three children were enrolled, 61 with suspected UTI and 12 non-febrile controls. Of the 61 with suspected UTI, 40 were adjudicated as UTI, 10 viral infection, and 11 as indeterminate. Urinary CRP and IP-10 levels were significantly higher in the UTI group (p ≤ 0.05). Urinary CRP differentiated UTI from non-bacterial etiology in children under and over 3 months of age, with AUCs 0.98 (95% CI: 0.93-1.00) and 0.82 (0.68-0.95), respectively. Similarly, urinary IP-10 discriminated with AUCs of 0.80 (0.59-1.00) and 0.90 (0.80-1.00), respectively. Serum CRP and IP-10 levels were significantly higher in UTI cases with nephronia (p ≤ 0.03). UTI-induced changes in the levels of urinary and serum biomarkers resolved during recovery. Conclusions: CRP, IP-10, and TRAIL represent biomarkers with potential to aid the clinician in diagnosis and management of UTI.

Observational cohort study of IP-10's potential as a biomarker to aid in inflammation regulation within a clinical decision support protocol for patients with severe COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of severely ill COVID-19 patients requires simultaneous management of oxygenation and inflammation without compromising viral clearance. While multiple tools are available to aid oxygenation, data supporting immune biomarkers for monitoring the host-pathogen interaction across disease stages and for titrating immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. METHODS: In this single-center cohort study, we used an immunoassay platform that enables rapid and quantitative measurement of interferon γ-induced protein 10 (IP-10), a host protein involved in lung injury from virus-induced hyperinflammation. A dynamic clinical decision support protocol was followed to manage patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and examine the potential utility of timely and serial measurements of IP-10 as tool in regulating inflammation. RESULTS: Overall, 502 IP-10 measurements were performed on 52 patients between 7 April and 10 May 2020, with 12 patients admitted to the intensive care unit. IP-10 levels correlated with COVID-19 severity scores and admission to the intensive care unit. Among patients in the intensive care unit, the number of days with IP-10 levels exceeding 1,000 pg/mL was associated with mortality. Administration of corticosteroid immunomodulatory therapy decreased IP-10 levels significantly. Only two patients presented with subsequent IP-10 flare-ups exceeding 1,000 pg/mL and died of COVID-19-related complications. CONCLUSIONS: Serial and readily available IP-10 measurements potentially represent an actionable aid in managing inflammation in COVID-19 patients and therapeutic decision-making. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04389645, retrospectively registered on May 15, 2020.

Expert panel diagnosis demonstrated high reproducibility as reference standard in infectious diseases.

OBJECTIVE: If a gold standard is lacking in a diagnostic test accuracy study, expert diagnosis is frequently used as reference standard. However, interobserver and intraobserver agreements are imperfect. The aim of this study was to quantify the reproducibility of a panel diagnosis for pediatric infectious diseases. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Pediatricians from six countries adjudicated a diagnosis (i.e., bacterial infection, viral infection, or indeterminate) for febrile children. Diagnosis was reached when the majority of panel members came to the same diagnosis, leaving others inconclusive. We evaluated intraobserver and intrapanel agreement with 6 weeks and 3 years' time intervals. We calculated the proportion of inconclusive diagnosis for a three-, five-, and seven-expert panel. RESULTS: For both time intervals (i.e., 6 weeks and 3 years), intrapanel agreement was higher (kappa 0.88, 95%CI: 0.81-0.94 and 0.80, 95%CI: NA) compared to intraobserver agreement (kappa 0.77, 95%CI: 0.71-0.83 and 0.65, 95%CI: 0.52-0.78). After expanding the three-expert panel to five or seven experts, the proportion of inconclusive diagnoses (11%) remained the same. CONCLUSION: A panel consisting of three experts provides more reproducible diagnoses than an individual expert in children with lower respiratory tract infection or fever without source. Increasing the size of a panel beyond three experts has no major advantage for diagnosis reproducibility.

A novel host-protein assay outperforms routine parameters for distinguishing between bacterial and viral lower respiratory tract infections.

Bacterial and viral lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) are often clinically indistinguishable, leading to antibiotic overuse. We compared the diagnostic accuracy of a new assay that combines 3 host-biomarkers (TRAIL, IP-10, CRP) with parameters in routine use to distinguish bacterial from viral LRTIs. Study cohort included 184 potentially eligible pediatric and adult patients. Reference standard diagnosis was based on adjudication by an expert panel following comprehensive clinical and laboratory investigation (including respiratory PCRs). Experts were blinded to assay results and assay performers were blinded to reference standard outcomes. Evaluated cohort included 88 bacterial and 36 viral patients (23 did not fulfill inclusion criteria; 37 had indeterminate reference standard outcome). Assay distinguished bacterial from viral LRTI patients with sensitivity of 0.93±0.06 and specificity of 0.91±0.09, outperforming routine parameters, including WBC, CRP and chest x-ray signs. These findings support the assay's potential to help clinicians avoid missing bacterial LRTIs or overusing antibiotics.

Validation of a Novel Assay to Distinguish Bacterial and Viral Infections.

BACKGROUND: Reliably distinguishing bacterial from viral infections is often challenging, leading to antibiotic misuse. A novel assay that integrates measurements of blood-borne host-proteins (tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, interferon γ-induced protein-10, and C-reactive protein [CRP]) was developed to assist in differentiation between bacterial and viral disease. METHODS: We performed double-blind, multicenter assay evaluation using serum remnants collected at 5 pediatric emergency departments and 2 wards from children ≥3 months to ≤18 years without (n = 68) and with (n = 529) suspicion of acute infection. Infectious cohort inclusion criteria were fever ≥38°C and symptom duration ≤7 days. The reference standard diagnosis was based on predetermined criteria plus adjudication by experts blinded to assay results. Assay performers were blinded to the reference standard. Assay cutoffs were predefined. RESULTS: Of 529 potentially eligible patients with suspected acute infection, 100 did not fulfill infectious inclusion criteria and 68 had insufficient serum. The resulting cohort included 361 patients, with 239 viral, 68 bacterial, and 54 indeterminate reference standard diagnoses. The assay distinguished between bacterial and viral patients with 93.8% sensitivity (95% confidence interval: 87.8%-99.8%) and 89.8% specificity (85.6%-94.0%); 11.7% had an equivocal assay outcome. The assay outperformed CRP (cutoff 40 mg/L; sensitivity 88.2% [80.4%-96.1%], specificity 73.2% [67.6%-78.9%]) and procalcitonin testing (cutoff 0.5 ng/mL; sensitivity 63.1% [51.0%-75.1%], specificity 82.3% [77.1%-87.5%]). CONCLUSIONS: Double-blinded evaluation confirmed high assay performance in febrile children. Assay was significantly more accurate than CRP, procalcitonin, and routine laboratory parameters. Additional studies are warranted to support its potential to improve antimicrobial treatment decisions.

Cross-talk between Akt, p53 and Mdm2: possible implications for the regulation of apoptosis.

The p53 tumor suppressor protein and the Akt/PKB kinase play important roles in the transduction of pro-apoptotic and anti-apoptotic signals, respectively. We provide evidence that conflicting signals transduced by Akt and p53 are integrated via negative feedback between the two pathways. On the one hand, the combination of ionizing radiation and survival factor deprivation, which leads to rapid apoptosis of IL-3 dependent DA-1 cells, entails a caspase- and p53-dependent destruction of Akt. This destruction of Akt is not a secondary consequence of apoptosis, since it is not seen when the same cells are triggered to undergo apoptosis under different conditions. On the other hand upon serum stimulation, when Akt becomes active and enhances cell survival, phosphorylation occurs at an Akt consensus site (serine 166) within the Mdm2 protein, a key regulator of p53 function. Taken together, our findings suggest that depending on the balance of signals, p53-dependent downregulation of Akt may promote an irreversible commitment to apoptotic cell death, whereas effective recruitment of Akt by appropriate survival signals may lead to activation of Mdm2, inactivation of p53, and eventually inhibition of p53-dependent apoptosis.

Potential genetic variance and the domestication of maize.

Since Darwin, there has been a long and arduous struggle to understand the source and maintenance of natural genetic variation and its relationship to phenotype. The reason that this task is so difficult is that it requires integration of detailed, and as yet incomplete, knowledge from several biological disciplines, including evolutionary, population, and developmental genetics. In this 'post-genomic' era, it is relatively easy to identify differences in the DNA sequence between individuals. However, the task remains to delineate how this abundant genetic diversity actually contributes to phenotypic diversity. This necessitates tackling the problem of hidden genetic variation. Genetic polymorphisms can be conditionally cryptic, but have the potential to contribute to phenotypic variation in particular genetic backgrounds or under specific environmental conditions. A recent paper by Lauter and Doebley highlights the contribution of hidden genetic variation to traits characterizing the morphological evolution of modern maize from its wild grass-like progenitor teosinte.1 This work is the first to demonstrate hidden variance for selected (agronomically 'adaptive') traits in a well-characterized model for morphological evolution.