Ebola virus disease in West Africa--the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections.

BACKGROUND: On March 23, 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) was notified of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea. On August 8, the WHO declared the epidemic to be a "public health emergency of international concern." METHODS: By September 14, 2014, a total of 4507 probable and confirmed cases, including 2296 deaths from EVD (Zaire species) had been reported from five countries in West Africa--Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. We analyzed a detailed subset of data on 3343 confirmed and 667 probable Ebola cases collected in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone as of September 14. RESULTS: The majority of patients are 15 to 44 years of age (49.9% male), and we estimate that the case fatality rate is 70.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 73) among persons with known clinical outcome of infection. The course of infection, including signs and symptoms, incubation period (11.4 days), and serial interval (15.3 days), is similar to that reported in previous outbreaks of EVD. On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone. Assuming no change in the control measures for this epidemic, by November 2, 2014, the cumulative reported numbers of confirmed and probable cases are predicted to be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 in total. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from EVD are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months.

Ebola and Its Control in Liberia, 2014-2015.

The severe epidemic of Ebola virus disease in Liberia started in March 2014. On May 9, 2015, the World Health Organization declared Liberia free of Ebola, 42 days after safe burial of the last known case-patient. However, another 6 cases occurred during June-July; on September 3, 2015, the country was again declared free of Ebola. Liberia had by then reported 10,672 cases of Ebola and 4,808 deaths, 37.0% and 42.6%, respectively, of the 28,103 cases and 11,290 deaths reported from the 3 countries that were heavily affected at that time. Essential components of the response included government leadership and sense of urgency, coordinated international assistance, sound technical work, flexibility guided by epidemiologic data, transparency and effective communication, and efforts by communities themselves. Priorities after the epidemic include surveillance in case of resurgence, restoration of health services, infection control in healthcare settings, and strengthening of basic public health systems.

The World Health Organization's Frontline Support to Countries During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 30, 2020. WHO rapidly scaled up its response including through its 149 country offices to support Member States prepare for and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. This article describes the frontline role of the WHO Country Offices (WCOs) and demonstrates that WHO utilized its existing country presence to deliver its global program of work during this unprecedented emergency. Using data collected from the 2020 WHO COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan monitoring and evaluation framework assessments, plus data collected in a quantitative survey completed by 149 WCOs during 2020, this article describes how WHO supported national authorities and partners through leadership, policy dialogue, strategic support, technical assistance, and service delivery, in line with WHO's current 5-year strategic plan, the WHO 13th General Programme of Work 2019-2023. Country level case studies were used to further illustrate actions taken by WCOs. WHO's achievements notwithstanding, the Organization faced several key challenges in the first year of the response. Recommendations to enhance WHO presence in countries for future emergency prevention, preparedness and response, from several independent reviews, were presented to the World Health Assembly in May 2021 and relevant recommendations are presented in this article.

Serving the Vulnerable: The World Health Organization's Scaled Support to Countries During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC), created by the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in 1991, serves as the global humanitarian coordination forum of the UN s system. The IASC brings 18 agencies together, including the World Health Organization (WHO), for humanitarian preparedness and response policies and action. Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the IASC recognized the importance of providing intensified support to countries with conflict, humanitarian, or complex emergencies due to their weak health systems and fragile contexts. A Global Humanitarian Response Plan (GHRP) was rapidly developed in March 2020, which reflected the international support needed for 63 target countries deemed to have humanitarian vulnerability. This paper assessed whether WHO provided intensified technical, financial, and commodity inputs to GHRP countries (n = 63) compared to non-GHRP countries (n = 131) in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis showed that WHO supported all 194 countries regardless of humanitarian vulnerability. Health commodities were supplied to most countries globally (86%), and WHO implemented most (67%) of the $1.268 billion spent in 2020 at country level. However, proportionally more GHRP countries received health commodities and nearly four times as much was spent in GHRP countries per capita compared to non-GHRP countries ($232 vs. $60 per 1,000 capita). In countries with WHO country offices (n = 149), proportionally more GHRP countries received WHO support for developing national response plans and monitoring frameworks, training of technical staff, facilitating logistics, publication of situation updates, and participation in research activities prior to the characterization of the pandemic or first in-country COVID-19 case. This affirms WHO's capacity to scale country support according to its humanitarian mandate. Further work is needed to assess the impact of WHO's inputs on health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic, which will strengthen WHO's scaled support to countries during future health emergencies.

The World Health Organization's Actions Within the United Nations System to Facilitate a Whole-of-Society Response to COVID-19 at Country Level.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted that managing health emergencies requires more than an effective health response, but that operationalizing a whole-of-society approach is challenging. The World Health Organization (WHO), as the lead agency for health within the United Nations (UN), led the UN response at the global level through the Crisis Management Team, and at the country level through the UN Country Teams (UNCTs) in accordance with its mandate. Three case studies-Mali, Cox's Bazar in Bangladesh, and Uzbekistan-provide examples of how WHO contributed to the whole-of-society response for COVID-19 at the country level. Interviews with WHO staff, supplemented by internal and external published reports, highlighted that the action of WHO comprised technical expertise to ensure an effective whole-of-society response and to minimize social disruption, including those affecting peacekeeping in Mali, livelihood sectors in Cox's Bazar, and the education sector in Uzbekistan. Leveraging local level volunteers from various sectors led to both a stronger public health response and the continuation of other sectoral work. Risk communication and community engagement (RCCE) emerged as a key theme for UN engagement at country level. These collective efforts of operationalizing whole-of-society response at the country level need to continue for the COVID-19 response, but also in preparedness for other health and non-health emergencies. Building resilience for future emergencies requires developing and exercising multi-sectoral preparedness plans and benefits from collective UN support to countries. Coronavirus disease had many impacts outside of health, and therefore emergency preparedness needs to occur outside of health too.

Emergency and essential surgical services in Afghanistan: still a missing challenge.

BACKGROUND: In Afghanistan, the number of surgically amenable injuries related to civil unrest and ongoing conflict or consequent to road traffic accidents, trauma, or pregnancy-related complications is rising and becoming a major cause of death and disability. This study was designed to evaluate availability of basic lifesaving and disability-preventive emergency surgical and anesthesia interventions representing most of the country. METHODS: Evaluation was performed outside Kabul to represent a cross-section of the country. Data were collected from Afghanistan health facilities, using the WHO Tool for Situation Analysis to Assess Emergency and Essential Surgical Care, covering case volume, travel distances, infrastructures, human resources, supplies, equipment, and interventions characterizing basic trauma, surgery, and anesthesia capacities. RESULTS: In 30% of the 17 facilities examined, oxygen supply is limited and irregular; uninterrupted running water is not accessible in 40%; electrical power is not available continuously in 66%. Shortage of equipment and personnel is evident in peripheral health facilities: certified surgeons are present in 63.6% and certified anesthesiologists in 27.2%. Continuous 24 h surgical service is available in 29.4%. Lifesaving procedures are performed in 17-42% of peripheral hospitals; 23.5% are without emergency obstetric service. CONCLUSIONS: Limited access to surgery is highly remarkable in Afghanistan, with a severe shortage of emergency surgical capacities in provincial and district hospitals, where availability of basic and emergency surgical care is far from satisfactory. A comprehensive approach for strengthening basic surgical capacities at the primary health care level should be introduced.

Use of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited countries in 2006: distribution and uptake of first- and second-line regimens.

OBJECTIVE: To address the information gap on current use of antiretroviral drugs (ARTs) in developing countries. METHODS: The AIDS Medicines and Diagnostics Service of the World Health Organization (WHO) carried out a multi-country survey in early 2006. Questionnaires covered the use of first- and second-line regimens in adults and children, and the rates of switching from first-line to second-line regimen. Weighted percentages of use of ARTs across the cohort of adults and children were calculated and correlated with 2006 WHO guidelines. A second analysis compared demand for ARTs with rates of production of active pharmaceutical ingredients. RESULTS: Twenty-three countries (96%) returned the questionnaires, representing 53% of relevant patients in developing countries as of June 2006, and comprising 92% adults and 8% children receiving ARTs. Response rates were highest for questions regarding first-line use and lowest for those regarding pediatric regimens. The distribution of first-line: second-line use was 96%: 4% among adults and 99%: 1% among children. For adults, 95% of those receiving first-line treatment, but only 25% of those receiving second-line treatment, were on regimens consistent with those preferred by the WHO. Among first-line users, the most common regimen (61%) was stavudine+lamivudine+nevirapine. Among second-line users, abacavir+didanosine+lopinavir/ritonavir was the most common regimen (24%). Among children, compliance with WHO guidelines was high among the respondents, with zidovudine+lamivudine+nevirapine reported as the main option. Estimates of first-year switching rate were highly variable, ranging from 1% to 15%, with only ten responses. Comparison of supply and demand showed that the stated production capacity for active pharmaceutical ingredients is sufficient to meet current demands for ARTs. CONCLUSION: This survey has provided valuable information on the uptake of ARTs in developing countries and will help forecast future demand. Reporting for second-line and pediatric antiretroviral therapy should improve as national programs gain more experience. The current availability of active pharmaceutical ingredients appears to be sufficient to meet current demand. Further work is needed for an understanding of switching rates.

What strategies to boost production of affordable fixed-dose anti-retroviral drug combinations for children in the developing world?

BACKGROUND: No more than 8% of HIV positive children needing treatment in low- and middle-income countries have access to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs). Children presently account for about 4% of all treated patients, while for equitable access they should make up at least 13%. AIMS: This study explores key issues, implications and interaction dynamics to boost production of easy-to-use and affordable fixed-dose combination (FDC) ARVs for children in the developing world. Potentials for equitable solutions are examined including priority steps and actions, appropriate treatment options and reliable forecasting methods for paediatric ARVs, as well as combination incentives to generic companies against market unattractiveness and enforced intellectual property (IP) rights. Moreover, implementation strategies to enhance the development and production of affordable ARV paediatric formulations and appropriate supply systems to ensure availability are investigated. RESULTS: The current market for FDC paediatric ARVs is already substantial and will only grow with improved and scaled up diagnosis and monitoring of children. This provides an argument for immediate increase of production and development of FDC ARVs for children. These formulations must be low cost and included in the list of Essential Medicines to avoid children continuing to lag behind in access to treatment. Access-oriented, long-term drug policy strategies with the ability to pass muster of governments, the UN system, as well as generic and research-based enterprises are needed to let children gain expanded and sustained access to FDC ARVs. Under the requirements listed above, IP-bound Voluntary License (VL) flexibilities do appear, if coupled with substantial combination incentives to generic firms, as a fitting tool into the needs. Policies must consider enhancing human resource capacity in the area of caregivers and social and health workers aiming to spread correct information and awareness on effectiveness and rationale of FDC ARVs for children. Policies should urge that paediatric ARV treatment programmes entwine with extant interventions on prevention of mother-to-child transmission, as well as with HIV treatment initiatives focused on mothers and household members. Policies, again, should consider centralising functions and pooling resources to help overcome drug supply barriers. WHO's brokering role in VL-based agreements between wealthy and developing country industries, as well as its technical guidance in setting international standards should not be waived while looking for sustained access to optimised ARV treatments for children. Strategies discussed in this paper, while taking unavoidability of marketing and profit rules into account, look closely into the trade and drug policy directions of China and India according to frontier crossing implications of their IP management trends as well as their multi-faceted penetration strategies of both the wealthy and under-served markets the world over.