Dietary B group vitamin intake and the bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PURPOSE: Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). The B group complex vitamins involve diverse biological functions that could be influential in cancer prevention. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between various components of the B group vitamin complex and BC risk. METHODS: Dietary data were pooled from four cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of B group vitamins and pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were obtained using Cox-regression models. Dose-response relationships were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. RESULTS: In total, 2915 BC cases and 530,012 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an increased BC risk for moderate intake of vitamin B1 (HRB1: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00-1.20). In men, moderate intake of the vitamins B1, B2, energy-related vitamins and high intake of vitamin B1 were associated with an increased BC risk (HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.02-1.26), 1.14 (1.02-1.26), 1.13 (1.02-1.26; 1.13 (1.02-1.26), respectively). In women, high intake of all vitamins and vitamin combinations, except for the entire complex, showed an inverse association (HR (95% CI): 0.80 (0.67-0.97), 0.83 (0.70-1.00); 0.77 (0.63-0.93), 0.73 (0.61-0.88), 0.82 (0.68-0.99), 0.79 (0.66-0.95), 0.80 (0.66-0.96), 0.74 (0.62-0.89), 0.76 (0.63-0.92), respectively). Dose-response analyses showed an increased BC risk for higher intake of vitamin B1 and B12. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the importance of future research on the food sources of B group vitamins in the context of the overall and sex-stratified diet.

Vegetable intake and the risk of bladder cancer in the BLadder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) international study.

BACKGROUND: Although a potential inverse association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk has been reported, epidemiological evidence is inconsistent. This research aimed to elucidate the association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk by conducting a pooled analysis of data from prospective cohort studies. METHODS: Vegetable intake in relation to bladder cancer risk was examined by pooling individual-level data from 13 cohort studies, comprising 3203 cases among a total of 555,685 participants. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models stratified by cohort for intakes of total vegetable, vegetable subtypes (i.e. non-starchy, starchy, green leafy and cruciferous vegetables) and individual vegetable types. In addition, a diet diversity score was used to assess the association of the varied types of vegetable intake on bladder cancer risk. RESULTS: The association between vegetable intake and bladder cancer risk differed by sex (P-interaction = 0.011) and smoking status (P-interaction = 0.038); therefore, analyses were stratified by sex and smoking status. With adjustment of age, sex, smoking, energy intake, ethnicity and other potential dietary factors, we found that higher intake of total and non-starchy vegetables were inversely associated with the risk of bladder cancer among women (comparing the highest with lowest intake tertile: HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.64-0.98, P = 0.037 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.81-0.99; HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.63-0.97, P = 0.034 for trend, HR per 1 SD increment = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79-0.98, respectively). However, no evidence of association was observed among men, and the intake of vegetable was not found to be associated with bladder cancer when stratified by smoking status. Moreover, we found no evidence of association for diet diversity with bladder cancer risk. CONCLUSION: Higher intakes of total and non-starchy vegetable are associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer for women. Further studies are needed to clarify whether these results reflect causal processes and potential underlying mechanisms.

Radiation risk of incident colorectal cancer by anatomical site among atomic bomb survivors: 1958-2009.

Radiation effects on colorectal cancer rates, adjusted for smoking, alcohol intake and frequency of meat consumption and body mass index (BMI) by anatomical subsite (proximal colon, distal colon and rectum) were examined in a cohort of 105,444 atomic bomb survivors. Poisson regression methods were used to describe radiation-associated excess relative risks (ERR) and excess absolute rates (EAR) for the 1958-2009 period. There were 2,960 first primary colorectal cancers including 894 proximal, 871 distal and 1,046 rectal cancers. Smoking, alcohol intake and BMI were associated with subsite-specific cancer background rates. Significant linear dose-responses were found for total colon (sex-averaged ERR/Gy for 70 years old exposed at age 30 = 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.34; 0.98), proximal [ERR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.32; 1.44] and distal colon cancers [ERR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.04; 0.97], but not for rectal cancer [ERR = 0.023, 95% CI: -0.081; 0.13]. The ERRs for proximal and distal colon cancers were not significantly different (p = 0.41). The ERR decreased with attained age for total colon, but not for proximal colon cancer, and with calendar year for distal colon cancer. The ERRs and EARs did not vary by age at exposure, except for decreasing trend in EAR for proximal colon cancer. In conclusion, ionizing radiation is associated with increased risk of proximal and distal colon cancers. The ERR for proximal cancer persists over time, but that for distal colon cancer decreases. There continues to be no indication of radiation effects on rectal cancer incidence in this population.

A data mining approach to investigate food groups related to incidence of bladder cancer in the BLadder cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants International Study.

At present, analysis of diet and bladder cancer (BC) is mostly based on the intake of individual foods. The examination of food combinations provides a scope to deal with the complexity and unpredictability of the diet and aims to overcome the limitations of the study of nutrients and foods in isolation. This article aims to demonstrate the usability of supervised data mining methods to extract the food groups related to BC. In order to derive key food groups associated with BC risk, we applied the data mining technique C5.0 with 10-fold cross-validation in the BLadder cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants study, including data from eighteen case-control and one nested case-cohort study, compromising 8320 BC cases out of 31 551 participants. Dietary data, on the eleven main food groups of the Eurocode 2 Core classification codebook, and relevant non-diet data (i.e. sex, age and smoking status) were available. Primarily, five key food groups were extracted; in order of importance, beverages (non-milk); grains and grain products; vegetables and vegetable products; fats, oils and their products; meats and meat products were associated with BC risk. Since these food groups are corresponded with previously proposed BC-related dietary factors, data mining seems to be a promising technique in the field of nutritional epidemiology and deserves further examination.

Coffee consumption and risk of bladder cancer: a pooled analysis of 501,604 participants from 12 cohort studies in the BLadder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) international study.

Recent epidemiological studies have shown varying associations between coffee consumption and bladder cancer (BC). This research aims to elucidate the association between coffee consumption and BC risk by bringing together worldwide cohort studies on this topic. Coffee consumption in relation to BC risk was examined by pooling individual data from 12 cohort studies, comprising of 2601 cases out of 501,604 participants. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were obtained using multilevel Weibull regression models. Furthermore, dose-response relationships were examined using generalized least squares regression models. The association between coffee consumption and BC risk showed interaction with sex (P-interaction < 0.001) and smoking (P-interaction = 0.001). Therefore, analyses were stratified by sex and smoking. After adjustment for potential confounders, an increased BC risk was shown for high (> 500 ml/day, equivalent to > 4 cups/day) coffee consumption compared to never consumers among male smokers (current smokers: HR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.27-2.42, P-trend = 0.002; former smokers: HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.12-1.85, P-trend = 0.001). In addition, dose-response analyses, in male smokers also showed an increased BC risk for coffee consumption of more than 500 ml/day (4 cups/day), with the risk of one cup (125 ml) increment as 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.08). This research suggests that positive associations between coffee consumption and BC among male smokers but not never smokers and females. The inconsistent results between sexes and the absence of an association in never smokers indicate that the associations found among male smokers is unlikely to be causal and is possibly caused by residual confounding of smoking.

Effects of Omitting Non-confounding Predictors From General Relative-Risk Models for Binary Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The effects, in terms of bias and precision, of omitting non-confounding predictive covariates from generalized linear models have been well studied, and it is known that such omission results in attenuation bias but increased precision with logistic regression. However, many epidemiologic risk analyses utilize alternative models that are not based on a linear predictor, and the effect of omitting non-confounding predictive covariates from such models has not been characterized. METHODS: We employed simulation to study the effects on risk estimation of omitting non-confounding predictive covariates from an excess relative risk (ERR) model and a general additive-multiplicative relative-risk mixture model for binary outcome data in a case-control setting. We also compared the results to the effects with ordinary logistic regression. RESULTS: For these commonly employed alternative relative-risk models, the bias was similar to that with logistic regression when the risk was small. More generally, the bias and standard error of the risk-parameter estimates demonstrated patterns that are similar to those with logistic regression, but with greater magnitude depending on the true value of the risk. The magnitude of bias and standard error had little relation to study size or underlying disease prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Prior conclusions regarding omitted covariates in logistic regression models can be qualitatively applied to the ERR and the general additive-multiplicative relative-risk mixture model without substantial change. Quantitatively, however, these alternative models may have slightly greater omitted-covariate bias, depending on the magnitude of the true risk being estimated.

Japanese Legacy Cohorts: The Life Span Study Atomic Bomb Survivor Cohort and Survivors' Offspring.

Cohorts of atomic bomb survivors-including those exposed in utero-and children conceived after parental exposure were established to investigate late health effects of atomic bomb radiation and its transgenerational effects by the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC) in the 1950s. ABCC was reorganized to the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) in 1975, and all work has been continued at RERF. The Life Span Study, the cohort of survivors, consists of about 120,000 subjects and has been followed since 1950. Cohorts of in utero survivors and the survivors' children include about 3,600 and 77,000 subjects, respectively, and have been followed since 1945. Atomic bomb radiation dose was estimated for each subject based on location at the time of the bombing and shielding conditions from exposure, which were obtained through enormous efforts of investigators and cooperation of subjects. Outcomes include vital status, cause of death, and cancer incidence. In addition, sub-cohorts of these three cohorts were constructed to examine clinical features of late health effects, and the subjects have been invited to periodic health examinations at clinics of ABCC and RERF. They were also asked to donate biosamples for biomedical investigations. Epidemiological studies have observed increased radiation risks for malignant diseases among survivors, including those exposed in utero, and possible risks for some non-cancer diseases. In children of survivors, no increased risks due to parental exposure to radiation have been observed for malignancies or other diseases, but investigations are continuing, as these cohorts are still relatively young.

Effect of follow-up period on minimal-significant dose in the atomic-bomb survivor studies.

It was recently suggested that earlier reports on solid-cancer mortality and incidence in the Life Span Study of atomic-bomb survivors contain still-useful information about low-dose risk that should not be ignored, because longer follow-up may lead to attenuated estimates of low-dose risk due to longer time since exposure. Here it is demonstrated, through the use of all follow-up data and risk models stratified on period of follow-up (as opposed to sub-setting the data by follow-up period), that the appearance of risk attenuation over time may be the result of less-precise risk estimation-in particular, imprecise estimation of effect-modification parameters-in the earlier periods. Longer follow-up, in addition to allowing more-precise estimation of risk due to larger numbers of radiation-related cases, provides more-precise adjustment for background mortality or incidence and more-accurate assessment of risk modification by age at exposure and attained age. It is concluded that the latest follow-up data are most appropriate for inferring low-dose risk. Furthermore, if researchers are interested in effects of time since exposure, the most-recent follow-up data should be considered rather than the results of earlier reports.

Risk of death among children of atomic bomb survivors after 62 years of follow-up: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: No clear epidemiological hereditary effects of radiation exposure in human beings have been reported. However, no previous studies have investigated mortality into middle age in a population whose parents were exposed to substantial amounts of radiation before conception. We assessed mortality in children of the atomic bomb survivors after 62 years of follow-up. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we assessed 75 327 singleton children of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and unexposed controls, born between 1946 and 1984, and followed up to Dec 31, 2009. Parental gonadal doses of radiation from the atomic bombings were the primary exposures. The primary endpoint was death due to cancer or non-cancer disease, based on death certificates. FINDINGS: Median follow-up was 54·3 years (IQR 45·4-59·3). 5183 participants died from disease. The mean age of the 68 689 surviving children at the end of follow-up was 53·1 years (SD 7·9) with 15 623 (23%) older than age 60 years. For parents who were exposed to a non-zero gonadal dose of radiation, the mean dose was 264 mGy (SD 463). We detected no association between maternal gonadal radiation exposure and risk of death caused by cancer (hazard ratio [HR] for 1 Gy change in exposure 0·891 [95% CI 0·693-1·145]; p=0·36) or risk of death caused by non-cancer diseases (0·973 [0·849-1·115]; p=0·69). Likewise, paternal exposure had no effect on deaths caused by cancer (0·815 [0·614-1·083]; p=0·14) or deaths caused by non-cancer disease (1·103 [0·979-1·241]; p=0·12). Age or time between parental exposure and delivery had no effect on risk of death. INTERPRETATION: Late effects of ionising radiation exposure include increased mortality risks, and models of the transgenerational effects of radiation exposure predict more genetic disease in the children of people exposed to radiation. However, children of people exposed to the atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki had no indications of deleterious health effects after 62 years. Epidemiological studies complemented by sensitive molecular techniques are needed to understand the overall effects of preconception exposure to ionising radiation on human beings.

Associations of body mass index, smoking, and alcohol consumption with prostate cancer mortality in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

Many potentially modifiable risk factors for prostate cancer are also associated with prostate cancer screening, which may induce a bias in epidemiologic studies. We investigated the associations of body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)), smoking, and alcohol consumption with risk of fatal prostate cancer in Asian countries where prostate cancer screening is not widely utilized. Analysis included 18 prospective cohort studies conducted during 1963-2006 across 6 countries in southern and eastern Asia that are part of the Asia Cohort Consortium. Body mass index, smoking, and alcohol intake were determined by questionnaire at baseline, and cause of death was ascertained through death certificates. Analysis included 522,736 men aged 54 years, on average, at baseline. During 4.8 million person-years of follow-up, there were 634 prostate cancer deaths (367 prostate cancer deaths across the 11 cohorts with alcohol data). In Cox proportional hazards analyses of all cohorts in the Asia Cohort Consortium, prostate cancer mortality was not significantly associated with obesity (body mass index >25: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85, 1.36), ever smoking (HR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.21), or heavy alcohol intake (HR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.74, 1.35). Differences in prostate cancer screening and detection probably contribute to differences in the association of obesity, smoking, or alcohol intake with prostate cancer risk and mortality between Asian and Western populations and thus require further investigation.

Burden of total and cause-specific mortality related to tobacco smoking among adults aged ≥ 45 years in Asia: a pooled analysis of 21 cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases. We sought to quantify the burden of tobacco-smoking-related deaths in Asia, in parts of which men's smoking prevalence is among the world's highest. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed pooled analyses of data from 1,049,929 participants in 21 cohorts in Asia to quantify the risks of total and cause-specific mortality associated with tobacco smoking using adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. We then estimated smoking-related deaths among adults aged ≥45 y in 2004 in Bangladesh, India, mainland China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan-accounting for ∼71% of Asia's total population. An approximately 1.44-fold (95% CI = 1.37-1.51) and 1.48-fold (1.38-1.58) elevated risk of death from any cause was found in male and female ever-smokers, respectively. In 2004, active tobacco smoking accounted for approximately 15.8% (95% CI = 14.3%-17.2%) and 3.3% (2.6%-4.0%) of deaths, respectively, in men and women aged ≥45 y in the seven countries/regions combined, with a total number of estimated deaths of ∼1,575,500 (95% CI = 1,398,000-1,744,700). Among men, approximately 11.4%, 30.5%, and 19.8% of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases, respectively, were attributable to tobacco smoking. Corresponding proportions for East Asian women were 3.7%, 4.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. The strongest association with tobacco smoking was found for lung cancer: a 3- to 4-fold elevated risk, accounting for 60.5% and 16.7% of lung cancer deaths, respectively, in Asian men and East Asian women aged ≥45 y. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco smoking is associated with a substantially elevated risk of mortality, accounting for approximately 2 million deaths in adults aged ≥45 y throughout Asia in 2004. It is likely that smoking-related deaths in Asia will continue to rise over the next few decades if no effective smoking control programs are implemented. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

A Historical Survey of Key Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation Exposure.

In this article we review the history of key epidemiological studies of populations exposed to ionizing radiation. We highlight historical and recent findings regarding radiation-associated risks for incidence and mortality of cancer and non-cancer outcomes with emphasis on study design and methods of exposure assessment and dose estimation along with brief consideration of sources of bias for a few of the more important studies. We examine the findings from the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, persons exposed to radiation for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes, those exposed to environmental sources including Chornobyl and other reactor accidents, and occupationally exposed cohorts. We also summarize results of pooled studies. These summaries are necessarily brief, but we provide references to more detailed information. We discuss possible future directions of study, to include assessment of susceptible populations, and possible new populations, data sources, study designs and methods of analysis.

Relationship between anthropometric factors, radiation exposure, and colon cancer incidence in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors.

PURPOSE: We examined colon cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors to investigate whether excess body weight after the bombings alters sensitivity to radiation effects. METHODS: Of the 56,064 Japanese atomic bomb survivors with follow-up through 2002 with self-reported anthropometric data obtained from periodic mail surveys, 1,142 were diagnosed with colon cancer. We evaluated the influence of body mass index (BMI) and height on radiation-associated colon cancer risk using Poisson regression. RESULTS: We observed a similar linear dose-response relationship for the 56,064 subjects included in our analysis and the entire cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors [excess relative risk (ERR) per Gray (Gy) = 0.53, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.25-0.86]. Elevation in earliest reported BMI, BMI reported closest to colon cancer diagnosis, and time-varying BMI were associated with an elevated risk of colon cancer [relative risk (RR) per 5 kg/m(2) increase in BMI = 1.14, 95 % CI 1.03-1.26; RR = 1.16, 95 % CI 1.05-1.27; and RR = 1.15, 95 % CI 1.04-1.27, respectively]. Height was not significantly related to colon cancer risk. Inclusion of anthropometric variables in models had little impact on radiation risk estimates, and there was no evidence that sensitivity to the effect of radiation on colon cancer risk depended on BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Radiation exposure and BMI are both risk factors for colon cancer. BMI at various times after exposure to the atomic bombings does not significantly influence the relationship between radiation dose and colon cancer risk, suggesting that BMI and radiation impact colon cancer risk independently of each other.

The Effect of Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) Test on Radiation Risk Estimate for Prostate Cancer Incidence among Atomic-Bomb Survivors.

Following our previous report on the radiation dose-response for prostate cancer incidence rates in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors, we reevaluated the radiation-related risk adjusting for differences in baseline cancer incidence rates among three subsets of the LSS cohort defined by the timing of their first participation in biennial health examinations offered to the Adult Health Study (AHS) sub-cohort members and prostate-specific-antigen (PSA) testing status for AHS participants: 1. non-AHS participants, 2. AHS participants before receiving PSA test, and 3. AHS participants after receiving PSA test. We found a 2.9-fold increase in the baseline incidence rates among AHS participants after receiving PSA test. After adjusting for the PSA-testing-status effects on the baseline rates the estimated excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.15, 1.05), which was almost identical to the previously reported unadjusted ERR estimate (0.57, 95% CI: 0.21, 1.00). The current results confirmed that, while the PSA testing among AHS participants increased the baseline incidence rates, it did not impact the radiation risk estimate, strengthening the previously reported dose-response relationship for prostate cancer incidence in the LSS. As the use of PSA tests continue in screening and medical settings, analyses of possible effects of PSA testing should be an important aspect of future epidemiological studies of the association between radiation exposure and prostate cancer.

Radiation dose and cataract surgery incidence in atomic bomb survivors, 1986-2005.

PURPOSE: To examine the incidence of clinically important cataracts in relation to lens radiation doses between 0 and approximately 3 Gy to address risks at relatively low brief doses. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Informed consent was obtained, and human subjects procedures were approved by the ethical committee at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. Cataract surgery incidence was documented for 6066 atomic bomb survivors during 1986-2005. Sixteen risk factors for cataract, such as smoking, hypertension, and corticosteroid use, were not confounders of the radiation effect on the basis of Cox regression analysis. Radiation dose-response analyses were performed for cataract surgery incidence by using Poisson regression analysis, adjusting for demographic variables and diabetes mellitus, and results were expressed as the excess relative risk (ERR) and the excess absolute risk (EAR) (ie, measures of how much radiation multiplies [ERR] or adds to [EAR] the risk in the unexposed group). RESULTS: Of 6066 atomic bomb survivors, 1028 underwent a first cataract surgery during 1986-2005. The estimated threshold dose was 0.50 Gy (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10 Gy, 0.95 Gy) for the ERR model and 0.45 Gy (95% CI: 0.10 Gy, 1.05 Gy) for the EAR model. A linear-quadratic test for upward curvature did not show a significant quadratic effect for either the ERR or EAR model. The linear ERR model for a 70-year-old individual, exposed at age 20 years, showed a 0.32 (95% CI: 0.09, 0.53) [corrected] excess risk at 1 Gy. The ERR was highest for those who were young at exposure. CONCLUSION: These data indicate a radiation effect for vision-impairing cataracts at doses less than 1 Gy. The evidence suggests that dose standards for protection of the eye from brief radiation exposures should be 0.5 Gy or less.

Proportional hazards regression in epidemiologic follow-up studies: an intuitive consideration of primary time scale.

In epidemiologic cohort studies of chronic diseases, such as heart disease or cancer, confounding by age can bias the estimated effects of risk factors under study. With Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling in such studies, it would generally be recommended that chronological age be handled nonparametrically as the primary time scale. However, studies involving baseline measurements of biomarkers or other factors frequently use follow-up time since measurement as the primary time scale, with no explicit justification. The effects of age are adjusted for by modeling age at entry as a parametric covariate. Parametric adjustment raises the question of model adequacy, in that it assumes a known functional relationship between age and disease, whereas using age as the primary time scale does not. We illustrate this graphically and show intuitively why the parametric approach to age adjustment using follow-up time as the primary time scale provides a poor approximation to age-specific incidence. Adequate parametric adjustment for age could require extensive modeling, which is wasteful, given the simplicity of using age as the primary time scale. Furthermore, the underlying hazard with follow-up time based on arbitrary timing of study initiation may have no inherent meaning in terms of risk. Given the potential for biased risk estimates, age should be considered as the preferred time scale for proportional-hazards regression with epidemiologic follow-up data when confounding by age is a concern.

Age-period-cohort analysis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality in Japan, 1950-2004.

BACKGROUND: We examined trends in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality in Japan. METHODS: An age-period-cohort model was used to examine trends in COPD mortality by age, time period, and birth cohort among adults aged 40 years or older from 1950 to 2004. RESULTS: During the study period, the age-standardized rate of COPD mortality substantially decreased from 71.3 per 100,000 to 19.7 in men and from 41.7 to 4.3 in women. The period effects rapidly declined during the early period in both sexes. They have increased in recent years in men but have continued to decrease in women. The cohort effects began increasing in the 1865-1869 birth cohort, peaked in the 1880-1889 cohort, and decreased thereafter among the recent cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: An early decrease in the period effects might have been associated with changes in disease structure and misclassification of COPD in the early period. Changes in cohort effects might have been mostly associated with changes in cigarette consumption and smoking prevalence in the Japanese population. Changes in those effects may also be a proxy for other social changes over time.

Tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer in the Bladder Cancer Epidemiology and Nutritional Determinants (BLEND) Study: Pooled analysis of 12 international cohort studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tea has been shown to be associated with reduced risk of several diseases including cardiovascular diseases, stroke, metabolic syndrome, and obesity. However, the results on the relationship between tea consumption and bladder cancer are conflicting. This research aimed to assess the association between tea consumption and risk of bladder cancer using a pooled analysis of prospective cohort data. METHODS: Individual data from 532,949 participants in 12 cohort studies, were pooled for analyses. Cox regression models stratified by study centre was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% CIs. Fractional polynomial regression models were used to examine the dose-response relationship. RESULTS: A higher level of tea consumption was associated with lower risk of bladder cancer incidence (compared with no tea consumption: HR = 0.87, 95% C.I. = 0.77-0.98 for low consumption; HR = 0.86, 95% C.I. = 0.77-0.96 for moderate consumption; HR = 0.84, 95% C.I. = 0.75-0.95 for high consumption). When stratified by sex and smoking status, this reduced risk was statistically significant among men and current and former smokers. In addition, dose-response analyses showed a lower bladder cancer risk with increment of 100 ml of tea consumption per day (HR-increment = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.96-0.98). A similar inverse association was found among males, current and former smokers while never smokers and females showed non-significant results, suggesting potential sex-dependent effect. CONCLUSIONS: Higher consumption of tea is associated with reduced risk of bladder cancer with potential interaction with sex and smoking status. Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms for a protective effect of tea (e.g. inhibition of the survival and proliferation of cancer cells and anti-inflammatory mechanisms) and its interaction with smoking and sex.

Age effects on radiation response: summary of a recent symposium and future perspectives.

One of the principal uncertainties when estimating population risk of late effects from epidemiological data is that few radiation-exposed cohorts have been followed up to extinction. Therefore, the relative risk model has often been used to estimate radiation-associated risk and to extrapolate risk to the end of life. Epidemiological studies provide evidence that children are generally at higher risk of cancer induction than adults for a given radiation dose. However, the strength of evidence varies by cancer site and questions remain about site-specific age at exposure patterns. For solid cancers, there is a large body of evidence that excess relative risk (ERR) diminishes with increasing age at exposure. This pattern of risk is observed in the Life Span Study (LSS) as well as in other radiation-exposed populations for overall solid cancer incidence and mortality and for most site-specific solid cancers. However, there are some disparities by endpoint in the degree of variation of ERR with exposure age, with some sites (e.g., colon, lung) in the LSS incidence data showing no variation, or even increasing ERR with increasing age at exposure. The pattern of variation of excess absolute risk (EAR) with age at exposure is often similar, with EAR for solid cancers or solid cancer mortality decreasing with increasing age at exposure in the LSS. We shall review the human data from the Japanese LSS cohort, and a variety of other epidemiological data sets, including a review of types of medical diagnostic exposures, also some radiobiological animal data, all bearing on the issue of variations of radiation late-effects risk with age at exposure and with attained age. The paper includes a summary of several oral presentations given in a Symposium on "Age effects on radiation response" as part of the 67th Annual Meeting of the Radiation Research Society, held virtually on 3-6 October 2021.

Body iron stores and breast cancer risk in female atomic bomb survivors.

Iron can be a potent pro-oxidant and, on this basis, elevated body iron may increase the risk of cancer. Although epidemiological evidence is mixed, there is overall support for this possibility. In addition, because of this same oxidative capacity, body iron levels may alter radiation sensitivity. In the present study, a nested case-control study of breast cancer was conducted in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Stored serum samples from the Adult Health Study cohort were assayed for ferritin levels and joint statistical analyses were conducted of ferritin and radiation dose on the risk of breast cancer. Serum ferritin is the best feasible indicator of body iron levels in otherwise healthy people. A total of 107 cases and 212 controls were available for analysis. The relative risk (RR) of breast cancer for a 1 log unit increase in ferritin was 1.4 (95% confidence interval 1.1-1.8). This translates to an RR of 1.64 comparing high and low values of the interquartile range among controls (58 and 13.2 ng/mL, respectively). The results support the hypothesis that elevated body iron stores increase the risk of breast cancer. However, the study was inconclusive regarding the question of whether body iron alters radiation-induced breast cancer risk.