Evidence for massive and recurrent toxic blooms of Alexandrium catenella in the Alaskan Arctic.

Among the organisms that spread into and flourish in Arctic waters with rising temperatures and sea ice loss are toxic algae, a group of harmful algal bloom species that produce potent biotoxins. Alexandrium catenella, a cyst-forming dinoflagellate that causes paralytic shellfish poisoning worldwide, has been a significant threat to human health in southeastern Alaska for centuries. It is known to be transported into Arctic regions in waters transiting northward through the Bering Strait, yet there is little recognition of this organism as a human health concern north of the Strait. Here, we describe an exceptionally large A. catenella benthic cyst bed and hydrographic conditions across the Chukchi Sea that support germination and development of recurrent, locally originating and self-seeding blooms. Two prominent cyst accumulation zones result from deposition promoted by weak circulation. Cyst concentrations are among the highest reported globally for this species, and the cyst bed is at least 6× larger in area than any other. These extraordinary accumulations are attributed to repeated inputs from advected southern blooms and to localized cyst formation and deposition. Over the past two decades, warming has likely increased the magnitude of the germination flux twofold and advanced the timing of cell inoculation into the euphotic zone by 20 d. Conditions are also now favorable for bloom development in surface waters. The region is poised to support annually recurrent A. catenella blooms that are massive in scale, posing a significant and worrisome threat to public and ecosystem health in Alaskan Arctic communities where economies are subsistence based.

Variable wind, pack ice, and prey dispersion affect the long-term adequacy of protected areas for an Arctic sea duck.

With changing climate, delineation of protected areas for sensitive species must account for long-term variability and geographic shifts of key habitat elements. Projecting the future adequacy of protected areas requires knowing major factors that drive such changes, and how readily the animals adjust to altered resources. In the Arctic, the viability of habitats for marine birds and mammals often depends on sea ice to dissipate storm waves and provide platforms for resting. However, some wind conditions (including weak winds during extreme cold) can consolidate pack ice into cover so dense that air-breathing divers are excluded from the better feeding areas. Spectacled Eiders (Somateria fischeri) winter among leads (openings) in pack ice in areas where densities of their bivalve prey are quite high. During winter 2009, however, prevailing winds created a large region of continuous ice with inadequate leads to allow access to areas of dense preferred prey. Stable isotope and fatty acid biomarkers indicated that, under these conditions, the eiders did not diversify their diet to include abundant non-bivalve taxa but did add a smaller, less preferred, bivalve species. Consistent with a computer model of eider energy balance, the body fat of adult eiders in 2009 was 33-35% lower than on the same date (19 March) in 2001 when ice conditions allowed access to higher bivalve densities. Ice cover data suggest that the eiders were mostly excluded from areas of high bivalve density from January to March in about 30% of 14 winters from 1998 to 2011. Thus, even without change in total extent of ice, shifts in prevailing winds can alter the areal density of ice to reduce access to important habitats. Because changes in wind-driven currents can also rearrange the dispersion of prey, the potential for altered wind patterns should be an important concern in projecting effects of climate change on the adequacy of marine protected areas for diving endotherms in the Arctic.

Deposit­feeder diets in the Bering Sea: potential effects of climatic loss of sea ice­related microalgal blooms.

Climate warming in seasonally ice-covered seas is expected to reduce the extent and duration of annual sea ice. Resulting changes in sea ice related blooms of ice algae or phytoplankton may in turn alter the timing, magnitude, or quality of organic matter inputs to the sea floor. If benthic taxa rely differently on direct consumption of settling fresh microalgae for growth and reproduction, altered blooms may lead to reorganization of deposit-feeding assemblages. To assess the potential for such changes, we examined the diets of five abundant deposit-feeders (three infaunal bivalves, a polychaete, and a brittle star) with different feeding modes over the course of the spring bloom in May­June 2007 in the north-central Bering Sea (30­90 m depth). Short-term data from gut contents reflected feeding modes, with the bivalves Macoma calcarea, Ennucula tenuis, and Nuculana radiata, and the brittle star Ophiura sarsi, responding more quickly to deposition of fresh algae than did the head-down polychaete Pectinaria hyperborea. Fatty acid biomarkers also indicated rapid ingestion of settling algae by the bivalves (especially Macoma) and the brittle star, while Pectinaria continued to ingest mainly bacteria. Fatty acid biomarkers did not indicate any unique dietary importance of ice algae released from melting ice. Longer-term inference from stable isotopes suggested that fresh microalgae contributed little to overall carbon assimilated by any of these species. Instead, deposit-feeders appeared to select a consistent fraction from the pool of sediment organic matter, probably heterotrophic microbes, microbial products, and reworked phytodetritus that form a longer-term sediment "food bank." Redistribution of settled organic matter via scouring and accumulation by currents, as well as the multi-year life spans of macroinvertebrates, may further overwhelm effects of short-term variations in the timing, magnitude, and dispersion of blooms in the water column. More diet data are needed from midsummer to account for any lag in assimilation of fresh microalgae at these cold temperatures. Nevertheless, our results suggest that if annual sea ice cover is reduced, increased production of phytoplankton during longer ice-free periods could replace inputs of ice-associated microalgae to the sediment food bank used by deposit-feeders.

A comprehensive satellite-based assessment across the Pacific Arctic Distributed Biological Observatory shows widespread late-season sea surface warming and sea ice declines with significant influences on primary productivity.

Massive declines in sea ice cover and widespread warming seawaters across the Pacific Arctic region over the past several decades have resulted in profound shifts in marine ecosystems that have cascaded throughout all trophic levels. The Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) provides sampling infrastructure for a latitudinal gradient of biological "hotspot" regions across the Pacific Arctic region, with eight sites spanning the northern Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. The purpose of this study is two-fold: (a) to provide an assessment of satellite-based environmental variables for the eight DBO sites (including sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration, annual sea ice persistence and the timing of sea ice breakup/formation, chlorophyll-a concentrations, primary productivity, and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR)) as well as their trends across the 2003-2020 time period; and (b) to assess the importance of sea ice presence/open water for influencing primary productivity across the region and for the eight DBO sites in particular. While we observe significant trends in SST, sea ice, and chlorophyll-a/primary productivity throughout the year, the most significant and synoptic trends for the DBO sites have been those during late summer and autumn (warming SST during October/November, later shifts in the timing of sea ice formation, and increases in chlorophyll-a/primary productivity during August/September). Those DBO sites where significant increases in annual primary productivity over the 2003-2020 time period have been observed include DBO1 in the Bering Sea (37.7 g C/m2/year/decade), DBO3 in the Chukchi Sea (48.0 g C/m2/year/decade), and DBO8 in the Beaufort Sea (38.8 g C/m2/year/decade). The length of the open water season explains the variance of annual primary productivity most strongly for sites DBO3 (74%), DBO4 in the Chukchi Sea (79%), and DBO6 in the Beaufort Sea (78%), with DBO3 influenced most strongly with each day of additional increased open water (3.8 g C/m2/year per day). These synoptic satellite-based observations across the suite of DBO sites will provide the legacy groundwork necessary to track additional and inevitable future physical and biological change across the region in response to ongoing climate warming.

Boom-bust cycles in gray whales associated with dynamic and changing Arctic conditions.

Climate change is affecting a wide range of global systems, with polar ecosystems experiencing the most rapid change. Although climate impacts affect lower-trophic-level and short-lived species most directly, it is less clear how long-lived and mobile species will respond to rapid polar warming because they may have the short-term ability to accommodate ecological disruptions while adapting to new conditions. We found that the population dynamics of an iconic and highly mobile polar-associated species are tightly coupled to Arctic prey availability and access to feeding areas. When low prey biomass coincided with high ice cover, gray whales experienced major mortality events, each reducing the population by 15 to 25%. This suggests that even mobile, long-lived species are sensitive to dynamic and changing conditions as the Arctic warms.

Changes in the oxygen isotope composition of the Bering Sea contribution to the Arctic Ocean are an independent measure of increasing freshwater fluxes through the Bering Strait.

A large volume of freshwater is incorporated in the relatively fresh (salinity ~32-33) Pacific Ocean waters that are transported north through the Bering Strait relative to deep Atlantic salinity in the Arctic Ocean (salinity ~34.8). These freshened waters help maintain the halocline that separates cold Arctic surface waters from warmer Arctic Ocean waters at depth. The stable oxygen isotope composition of the Bering Sea contribution to the upper Arctic Ocean halocline was established as early as the late 1980's as having a δ18OV-SMOW value of approximately -1.1‰. More recent data indicates a shift to an isotopic composition that is more depleted in 18O (mean δ18O value ~-1.5‰). This shift is supported by a data synthesis of >1400 water samples (salinity from 32.5 to 33.5) from the northern Bering and Chukchi seas, from the years 1987-2020, which show significant year-to-year, seasonal and regional variability. This change in the oxygen isotope composition of water in the upper halocline is consistent with observations of added freshwater in the Canada Basin, and mooring-based estimates of increased freshwater inflows through Bering Strait. Here, we use this isotopic time-series as an independent means of estimating freshwater flux changes through the Bering Strait. We employed a simple end-member mixing model that requires that the volume of freshwater (including runoff and other meteoric water, but not sea ice melt) flowing through Bering Strait has increased by ~40% over the past two decades to account for a change in the isotopic composition of the 33.1 salinity water from a δ18O value of approximately -1.1‰ to a mean of -1.5‰. This freshwater flux change is comparable with independent published measurements made from mooring arrays in the Bering Strait (freshwater fluxes rising from 2000-2500 km3 in 2001 to 3000-3500 km3 in 2011).

Phytoplankton bloom stages estimated from chlorophyll pigment proportions suggest delayed summer production in low sea ice years in the northern Bering Sea.

Decreased sea ice cover in the northern Bering Sea has altered annual phytoplankton phenology owing to an expansion of open water duration and its impact on ocean stratification. Limitations of satellite remote sensing such as the inability to detect bloom activity throughout the water column, under ice, and in cloudy conditions dictate the need for shipboard based measurements to provide more information on bloom dynamics. In this study, we adapted remote sensing land cover classification techniques to provide a new means to determine bloom stage from shipboard samples. Specifically, we used multiyear satellite time series of chlorophyll a to determine whether in-situ blooms were actively growing or mature (i.e., past-peak) at the time of field sampling. Field observations of chlorophyll a and pheophytin (degraded and oxidized chlorophyll products) were used to calculate pheophytin proportions, i.e., (Pheophytin/(Chlorophyll a + Pheophytin)) and empirically determine whether the bloom was growing or mature based on remotely sensed bloom stages. Data collected at 13 north Bering Sea stations each July from 2013-2019 supported a pheophytin proportion of 28% as the best empirical threshold to distinguish a growing vs. mature bloom stage. One outcome was that low vs. high sea ice years resulted in significantly different pheophytin proportions in July; in years with low winter-to-spring ice, more blooms with growing status were observed, compared to later stage, more mature blooms following springs with abundant seasonal sea ice. The detection of growing blooms in July following low ice years suggests that changes in the timing of the spring bloom triggers cascading effects on mid-summer production.

Changes in gray whale phenology and distribution related to prey variability and ocean biophysics in the northern Bering and eastern Chukchi seas.

Changes in gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) phenology and distribution are related to observed and hypothesized prey availability, bottom water temperature, salinity, sea ice persistence, integrated water column and sediment chlorophyll a, and patterns of wind-driven biophysical forcing in the northern Bering and eastern Chukchi seas. This portion of the Pacific Arctic includes four Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) sampling regions. In the Bering Strait area, passive acoustic data showed marked declines in gray whale calling activity coincident with unprecedented wintertime sea ice loss there in 2017-2019, although some whales were seen there during DBO cruises in those years. In the northern Bering Sea, sightings during DBO cruises show changes in gray whale distribution coincident with a shrinking field of infaunal amphipods, with a significant decrease in prey abundance (r = -0.314, p<0.05) observed in the DBO 2 region over the 2010-2019 period. In the eastern Chukchi Sea, sightings during broad scale aerial surveys show that gray whale distribution is associated with localized areas of high infaunal crustacean abundance. Although infaunal crustacean prey abundance was unchanged in DBO regions 3, 4 and 5, a mid-decade shift in gray whale distribution corresponded to both: (i) a localized increase in infaunal prey abundance in DBO regions 4 and 5, and (ii) a correlation of whale relative abundance with wind patterns that can influence epi-benthic and pelagic prey availability. Specifically, in the northeastern Chukchi Sea, increased sighting rates (whales/km) associated with an ~110 km (60 nm) offshore shift in distribution was positively correlated with large scale and local wind patterns conducive to increased availability of krill. In the southern Chukchi Sea, gray whale distribution clustered in all years near an amphipod-krill 'hotspot' associated with a 50-60m deep trough. We discuss potential impacts of observed and inferred prey shifts on gray whale nutrition in the context of an ongoing unusual gray whale mortality event. To conclude, we use the conceptual Arctic Marine Pulses (AMP) model to frame hypotheses that may guide future research on whales in the Pacific Arctic marine ecosystem.

Paralytic shellfish toxins in Alaskan Arctic food webs during the anomalously warm ocean conditions of 2019 and estimated toxin doses to Pacific walruses and bowhead whales.

Climate change-related ocean warming and reduction in Arctic sea ice extent, duration and thickness increase the risk of toxic blooms of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella in the Alaskan Arctic. This algal species produces neurotoxins that impact marine wildlife health and cause the human illness known as paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP). This study reports Paralytic Shellfish Toxin (PST) concentrations quantified in Arctic food web samples that include phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthic clams, benthic worms, and pelagic fish collected throughout summer 2019 during anomalously warm ocean conditions. PSTs (saxitoxin equivalents, STX eq.) were detected in all trophic levels with concentrations above the seafood safety regulatory limit (80 µg STX eq. 100 g-1) in benthic clams collected offshore on the continental shelf in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas. Most notably, toxic benthic clams (Macoma calcarea) were found north of Saint Lawrence Island where Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) are known to forage for a variety of benthic species, including Macoma. Additionally, fecal samples collected from 13 walruses harvested for subsistence purposes near Saint Lawrence Island during March to May 2019, all contained detectable levels of STX, with fecal samples from two animals (78 and 72 µg STX eq. 100 g-1) near the seafood safety regulatory limit. In contrast, 64% of fecal samples from zooplankton-feeding bowhead whales (n = 9) harvested between March and September 2019 in coastal waters of the Beaufort Sea near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) and Kaktovik were toxin-positive, and those levels were significantly lower than in walruses (max bowhead 8.5 µg STX eq. 100 g-1). This was consistent with the lower concentrations of PSTs found in regional zooplankton prey. Maximum ecologically-relevant daily toxin doses to walruses feeding on clams and bowhead whales feeding on zooplankton were estimated to be 21.5 and 0.7 µg STX eq. kg body weight-1 day-1, respectively, suggesting that walruses had higher PST exposures than bowhead whales. Average and maximum STX doses in walruses were in the range reported previously to cause illness and/or death in humans and humpback whales, while bowhead whale doses were well below those levels. These findings raise concerns regarding potential increases in PST/STX exposure risks and health impacts to Arctic marine mammals as ocean warming and sea ice reduction continue.

Biogeography and ecology of Ostracoda in the U.S. northern Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas.

Ostracoda (bivalved Crustacea) comprise a significant part of the benthic meiofauna in the Pacific-Arctic region, including more than 50 species, many with identifiable ecological tolerances. These species hold potential as useful indicators of past and future ecosystem changes. In this study, we examined benthic ostracodes from nearly 300 surface sediment samples, >34,000 specimens, from three regions-the northern Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas-to establish species' ecology and distribution. Samples were collected during various sampling programs from 1970 through 2018 on the continental shelves at 20 to ~100m water depth. Ordination analyses using species' relative frequencies identified six species, Normanicythere leioderma, Sarsicytheridea bradii, Paracyprideis pseudopunctillata, Semicytherura complanata, Schizocythere ikeyai, and Munseyella mananensis, as having diagnostic habitat ranges in bottom water temperatures, salinities, sediment substrates and/or food sources. Species relative abundances and distributions can be used to infer past bottom environmental conditions in sediment archives for paleo-reconstructions and to characterize potential changes in Pacific-Arctic ecosystems in future sampling studies. Statistical analyses further showed ostracode assemblages grouped by the summer water masses influencing the area. Offshore-to-nearshore transects of samples across different water masses showed that complex water mass characteristics, such as bottom temperature, productivity, as well as sediment texture, influenced the relative frequencies of ostracode species over small spatial scales. On the larger biogeographic scale, synoptic ordination analyses showed dominant species-N. leioderma (Bering Sea), P. pseudopunctillata (offshore Chukchi and Beaufort Seas), and S. bradii (all regions)-remained fairly constant over recent decades. However, during 2013-2018, northern Pacific species M. mananensis and S. ikeyai increased in abundance by small but significant proportions in the Chukchi Sea region compared to earlier years. It is yet unclear if these assemblage changes signify a meiofaunal response to changing water mass properties and if this trend will continue in the future. Our new ecological data on ostracode species and biogeography suggest these hypotheses can be tested with future benthic monitoring efforts.

Female Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) show greater partitioning of sea ice organic carbon than males: Evidence from ice algae trophic markers.

The expected reduction of ice algae with declining sea ice may prove to be detrimental to the Pacific Arctic ecosystem. Benthic organisms that rely on sea ice organic carbon (iPOC) sustain benthic predators such as the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The ability to track the trophic transfer of iPOC is critical to understanding its value in the food web, but prior methods have lacked the required source specificity. We analyzed the H-Print index, based on biomarkers of ice algae versus phytoplankton contributions to organic carbon in marine predators, in Pacific walrus livers collected in 2012, 2014 and 2016 from the Northern Bering Sea (NBS) and Chukchi Sea. We paired these measurements with stable nitrogen isotopes (δ15N) to estimate trophic position. We observed differences in the contribution of iPOC in Pacific walrus diet between regions, sexes, and age classes. Specifically, the contribution of iPOC to the diet of Pacific walruses was higher in the Chukchi Sea (52%) compared to the NBS (30%). This regional difference is consistent with longer annual sea ice persistence in the Chukchi Sea. Within the NBS, the contribution of iPOC to walrus spring diet was higher in females (~45%) compared to males (~30%) for each year (p < 0.001), likely due to specific foraging behavior of females to support energetic demands associated with pregnancy and lactation. Within the Chukchi Sea, the iPOC contribution was similar between males and females, yet higher in juveniles than in adults. Despite differences in the origin of organic carbon fueling the system (sea ice versus pelagic derived carbon), the trophic position of adult female Pacific walruses was similar between the NBS and Chukchi Sea (3.2 and 3.5, respectively), supporting similar diets (i.e. clams). Given the higher quality of organic carbon from ice algae, the retreat of seasonal sea ice in recent decades may create an additional vulnerability for female and juvenile Pacific walruses and should be considered in management of the species.

Impact of a warm anomaly in the Pacific Arctic region derived from time-series export fluxes.

Unusually warm conditions recently observed in the Pacific Arctic region included a dramatic loss of sea ice cover and an enhanced inflow of warmer Pacific-derived waters. Moored sediment traps deployed at three biological hotspots of the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) during this anomalously warm period collected sinking particles nearly continuously from June 2017 to July 2019 in the northern Bering Sea (DBO2) and in the southern Chukchi Sea (DBO3), and from August 2018 to July 2019 in the northern Chukchi Sea (DBO4). Fluxes of living algal cells, chlorophyll a (chl a), total particulate matter (TPM), particulate organic carbon (POC), and zooplankton fecal pellets, along with zooplankton and meroplankton collected in the traps, were used to evaluate spatial and temporal variations in the development and composition of the phytoplankton and zooplankton communities in relation to sea ice cover and water temperature. The unprecedented sea ice loss of 2018 in the northern Bering Sea led to the export of a large bloom dominated by the exclusively pelagic diatoms Chaetoceros spp. at DBO2. Despite this intense bloom, early sea ice breakup resulted in shorter periods of enhanced chl a and diatom fluxes at all DBO sites, suggesting a weaker biological pump under reduced ice cover in the Pacific Arctic region, while the coincident increase or decrease in TPM and POC fluxes likely reflected variations in resuspension events. Meanwhile, the highest transport of warm Pacific waters during 2017-2018 led to a dominance of the small copepods Pseudocalanus at all sites. Whereas the export of ice-associated diatoms during 2019 suggested a return to more typical conditions in the northern Bering Sea, the impact on copepods persisted under the continuously enhanced transport of warm Pacific waters. Regardless, the biological pump remained strong on the shallow Pacific Arctic shelves.

Seasonal and latitudinal variations in sea ice algae deposition in the Northern Bering and Chukchi Seas determined by algal biomarkers.

An assessment of the production, distribution and fate of highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) biomarkers produced by sea ice and pelagic diatoms is necessary to interpret their detection and proportions in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas. HBIs measured in surface sediments collected from 2012 to 2017 were used to determine the distribution and seasonality of the biomarkers relative to sea ice patterns. A northward gradient of increasing ice algae deposition was observed with localized occurrences of elevated IP25 (sympagic HBI) concentrations from 68-70°N and consistently strong sympagic signatures from 71-72.5°N. A declining sympagic signature was observed from 2012 to 2017 in the northeast Chukchi Sea, coincident with declining sea ice concentrations. HBI fluxes were investigated on the northeast Chukchi shelf with a moored sediment trap deployed from August 2015 to July 2016. Fluxes of sea ice exclusive diatoms (Nitzschia frigida and Melosira arctica) and HBI-producing taxa (Pleurosigma, Haslea and Rhizosolenia spp.) were measured to confirm HBI sources and ice associations. IP25 was detected year-round, increasing in March 2016 (10 ng m-2 d-1) and reaching a maximum in July 2016 (1331 ng m-2 d-1). Snowmelt triggered the release of sea ice algae into the water column in May 2016, while under-ice pelagic production contributed to the diatom export in June and July 2016. Sea ice diatom fluxes were strongly correlated with the IP25 flux, however associations between pelagic diatoms and HBI fluxes were inconclusive. Bioturbation likely facilitates sustained burial of sympagic organic matter on the shelf despite the occurrence of pelagic diatom blooms. These results suggest that sympagic diatoms may sustain the food web through winter on the northeast Chukchi shelf. The reduced relative proportions of sympagic HBIs in the northern Bering Sea are likely driven by sea ice persistence in the region.

Modeling marine protected areas for threatened eiders in a climatically changing Bering Sea.

Delineating protected areas for sensitive species is a growing challenge as changing climate alters the geographic pattern of habitats as well as human responses to those shifts. When human impacts are expected within projected ranges of threatened species, there is often demand to demarcate the minimum habitat required to ensure the species' persistence. Because diminished or wide-ranging populations may not occupy all viable (and needed) habitat at once, one must identify thresholds of resources that will support the species even in unoccupied areas. Long-term data on the shifting mosaic of critical resources may indicate ranges of future variability. We addressed these issues for the Spectacled Eider (Somateria fischeri), a federally threatened species that winters in pack ice of the Bering Sea. Changing climate has decreased ice cover and severely reduced the eiders' benthic prey and has increased prospects for expansion of bottom trawling that may further affect prey communities. To assess long-term changes in habitats that will support eiders, we linked data on benthic prey, sea ice, and weather from 1970 to 2001 with a spatially explicit simulation model of eider energy balance that integrated field, laboratory, and remote-sensing studies. Areas estimated to have prey densities adequate for eiders in 1970-1974 did not include most areas that were viable 20 years later (1993-1994). Unless the entire area with adequate prey in 1993-1994 had been protected, the much reduced viable area in 1999-2001 might well have been excluded. During long non-foraging periods (as at night), eiders can save much energy by resting on ice vs. floating on water; thus, loss of ice cover in the future might substantially decrease the area in which prey densities are adequate to offset the eiders' energy needs. For wide-ranging benthivores such as eiders, our results emphasize that fixed protected areas based on current conditions can be too small or inflexible to subsume long-term shifts in habitat conditions. Better knowledge of patterns of natural disturbance experienced by prey communities, and appropriate allocation of human disturbance over seasons or years, may yield alternative strategies to large-scale closures that may be politically and economically problematic.

Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) resource selection in the Northern Bering Sea.

The Pacific walrus is a large benthivore with an annual range extending across the continental shelves of the Bering and Chukchi Seas. We used a discrete choice model to estimate site selection by adult radio-tagged walruses relative to the availability of the caloric biomass of benthic infauna and sea ice concentration in a prominent walrus wintering area in the northern Bering Sea (St. Lawrence Island polynya) in 2006, 2008, and 2009. At least 60% of the total caloric biomass of dominant macroinfauna in the study area was composed of members of the bivalve families Nuculidae, Tellinidae, and Nuculanidae. Model estimates indicated walrus site selection was related most strongly to tellinid bivalve caloric biomass distribution and that walruses selected lower ice concentrations from the mostly high ice concentrations that were available to them (quartiles: 76%, 93%, and 99%). Areas with high average predicted walrus site selection generally coincided with areas of high organic carbon input identified in other studies. Projected decreases in sea ice in the St. Lawrence Island polynya and the potential for a concomitant decline of bivalves in the region could result in a northward shift in the wintering grounds of walruses in the northern Bering Sea.

Shifting patterns of life in the Pacific Arctic and sub-Arctic seas.

Recent changes in the timing of sea ice formation and retreat, along with increasing seawater temperatures, are driving shifts in marine species composition that may signal marine ecosystem reorganization in the Pacific Arctic sector. Interannual variability in seasonal sea ice retreat in the northern Bering Sea has been observed over the past decade; north of the Bering Strait, the Chukchi Sea ecosystem has had consistent earlier spring sea ice retreat and later fall sea ice formation. The latitudinal gradient in sea ice persistence, water column chlorophyll, and carbon export to the sediments has a direct impact on ecosystem structure in this Arctic/sub-Arctic complex. Large-scale decadal patterns in the benthic biological system are driven by sea ice extent, hydrographic forcing, and export production that influences benthic processes. Shifts in species composition and northward faunal range expansions indicate a changing system. The shifting patterns of life and change in key biological processes have the potential for a system-wide reorganization of the marine ecosystem.

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

Decrease in the CO2 uptake capacity in an ice-free Arctic Ocean basin.

It has been predicted that the Arctic Ocean will sequester much greater amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere as a result of sea ice melt and increasing primary productivity. However, this prediction was made on the basis of observations from either highly productive ocean margins or ice-covered basins before the recent major ice retreat. We report here a high-resolution survey of sea-surface CO2 concentration across the Canada Basin, showing a great increase relative to earlier observations. Rapid CO2 invasion from the atmosphere and low biological CO2 drawdown are the main causes for the higher CO2, which also acts as a barrier to further CO2 invasion. Contrary to the current view, we predict that the Arctic Ocean basin will not become a large atmospheric CO2 sink under ice-free conditions.

A major ecosystem shift in the northern Bering Sea.

Until recently, northern Bering Sea ecosystems were characterized by extensive seasonal sea ice cover, high water column and sediment carbon production, and tight pelagic-benthic coupling of organic production. Here, we show that these ecosystems are shifting away from these characteristics. Changes in biological communities are contemporaneous with shifts in regional atmospheric and hydrographic forcing. In the past decade, geographic displacement of marine mammal population distributions has coincided with a reduction of benthic prey populations, an increase in pelagic fish, a reduction in sea ice, and an increase in air and ocean temperatures. These changes now observed on the shallow shelf of the northern Bering Sea should be expected to affect a much broader portion of the Pacific-influenced sector of the Arctic Ocean.