Combining photoperiod and thermal responses to predict phenological mismatch for introduced insects.

A wide variety of organisms use the regular seasonal changes in photoperiod as a cue to align their life cycles with favorable conditions. Yet the phenological consequences of photoperiodism for organisms exposed to new climates are often overlooked. We present a conceptual approach and phenology model that maps voltinism (generations per year) and the degree of phenological mismatch that can arise when organisms with a short-day diapause response are introduced to new regions or are otherwise exposed to new climates. Our degree-day-based model combines continent-wide spatialized daily climate data, calculated date-specific and latitude-specific day lengths, and experimentally determined developmental responses to both photoperiod and temperature. Using the case of the knotweed psyllid Aphalara itadori, a new biological control agent being introduced from Japan to North America and Europe to control an invasive weed, we show how incorporating a short-day diapause response will result in geographic patterns of attempted voltinism that are strikingly different from the potential number of generations based on degree-days alone. The difference between the attempted and potential generations represents a quantitative measure of phenological mismatch between diapause timing and the end of the growing season. We conclude that insects moved from lower to higher latitudes (or to cooler climates) will tend to diapause too late, potentially resulting in high mortality from inclement weather, and those moved from higher to lower latitude (to warmer climates) may be prone to diapausing too early, therefore not fully exploiting the growing season and/or suffering from insufficient reserves for the longer duration in diapause. Mapped output reveals a central region with good phenology match that shifts north or south depending on the geographic source of the insect and its corresponding critical photoperiod for diapause. These results have direct relevance for efforts to establish populations of classical biocontrol agents. More generally, our approach and model could be applied to a wide variety of photoperiod- and temperature-sensitive organisms that are exposed to changes in climate, including resident and invasive agricultural pests and species of conservation concern.

Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly.

A rapidly changing climate has the potential to interfere with the timing of environmental cues that ectothermic organisms rely on to initiate and regulate life history events. Short-lived ectotherms that exhibit plasticity in their life history could increase the number of generations per year under warming climate. If many individuals successfully complete an additional generation, the population experiences an additional opportunity to grow, and a warming climate could lead to a demographic bonanza. However, these plastic responses could become maladaptive in temperate regions, where a warmer climate could trigger a developmental pathway that cannot be completed within the growing season, referred to as a developmental trap. Here we incorporated detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models to evaluate these demographic consequences of phenological shifts due to a warming climate on the formerly widespread, multivoltine butterfly (Pieris oleracea). Using species-specific temperature- and photoperiod-sensitive vital rates, we estimated the number of generations per year and population growth rate over the set of climate conditions experienced during the past 38 years. We predicted that populations in the southern portion of its range have added a fourth generation in recent years, resulting in higher annual population growth rates (demographic bonanzas). We predicted that populations in the Northeast United States have experienced developmental traps, where increases in the thermal window initially caused mortality of the final generation and reduced growth rates. These populations may recover if more growing degree days are added to the year. Our framework for incorporating detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models demonstrates the importance of using both demography and phenology to predict consequences of phenological shifts.

The consequences of photoperiodism for organisms in new climates.

A change in climate is known to affect seasonal timing (phenology) of the life stages of poikilothermic organisms whose development depends on temperature. Less understood is the potential for even greater disruption to the life cycle when a phenology shift exposes photoperiod-sensitive life stages to new day lengths. We present a conceptual framework and model to investigate the ways that photoperiod-cued diapause can interact with a change in climate or latitude to influence voltinism in poikilothermic organisms. Our degree-day phenology model combines detailed spatial climate data, latitude- and date-specific photoperiods, and development and photoperiod response parameters. As an example, we model the biological control beetle Galerucella calmariensis and map the number of generations expected following its introduction into diverse climates throughout the continental United States. Incorporation of photoperiodism results in a complex geography of voltinism that differs markedly from predictions of traditional phenology models. Facultative multivoltine species will be prone to univoltism when transported to either warmer or southern climates due to exposure of the sensitive stage to shorter day lengths. When moved to more northern locations, they may attempt too many generations for the season duration thereby exposing vulnerable life stages to harsh weather in the fall. We further show that even small changes in temperature can result in large and unexpected shifts in voltinism. Analogous effects may be expected for organisms from wide variety of taxa that use photoperiod as a seasonal cue during some stage of their life cycle. Our approach is useful for understanding the performance and impacts of introduced pests and beneficial organisms as well as for predicting responses of resident species to climate change and climate variability.

Divergence in Photoperiod Responses of a Classical Biological Control Agent, Galerucella calmariensis (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), Across a Climatic and Latitudinal Gradient.

A key knowledge gap in classical biological control is to what extent insect agents evolve to novel environments. The introduction of biological control agents to new photoperiod regimes and climates may disrupt the coordination of diapause timing that evolved to the growing season length in the native range. We tested whether populations of Galerucella calmariensis L. have evolved in response to the potential mismatch of their diapause timing since their intentional introduction to the United States from Germany in the 1990s. Populations collected from 39.4° to 48.8° latitude in the western United States were reared in growth chambers to isolate the effects of photoperiod on diapause induction and development time. For all populations, shorter day lengths increased the proportion of beetles that entered diapause instead of reproducing. The critical photoperiods, or the day length at which half of a population diapauses, differed significantly among the sampled populations, generally decreasing at lower latitudes. The latitudinal trend reflects changes in growing season length, which determines the number of generations possible, and in local day lengths, at the time when beetles are sensitive to this cue. Development times were similar across populations, with one exception, and did not vary with photoperiod. These results show that there was sufficient genetic variation from the two German source populations to evolve different photoperiod responses across a range of environmental conditions. This study adds to the examples of rapid evolution of seasonal adaptations in introduced insects.

The influence of plant architecture on the foraging efficiencies of a suite of ladybird beetles feeding on aphids.

By manipulating plant variety and predator species, we investigated the interactions of plant and predator traits in determining predation effectiveness. The predators were all coccinellid adults (Hippodamia convergens, Hippodamia variegata, Coccinella apunctata, and Coccinella septempunctata) and the prey were cabbage aphids (Brevicoryne brassicae). Foraging behavior of the four predators was observed on four crucifers that differed widely in their structures and surface textures (Brassica oleracea caulorapa, Brassica campestris, Brassica juncea crispifolia, and Hirschfeldia incana). Predation rates were significantly influenced by plant variety, a result we attribute to direct effects of plant morphology on predator mobility, falling frequency, and prey accessibility. Predation rates did not vary significantly among the ladybirds, although the four species did exhibit distinct foraging strategies as measured by time spent actively foraging, the rate of encountering aphids, and the fraction of aphids encountered that were consumed. The coccinellids also differed in their propensity for flying away from the plant, and in the frequency with which they fell from the plant. We did not detect any significant interaction effects between plant and predator species, suggesting that the main effects of plant and predator species may overwhelm their interactions in this kind of system. Our results suggest that the level of predation upon herbivorous insects may depend more upon plant architecture than on the particular species of natural enemies present.

Quantifying the effects of distance and conspecifics on colonization: experiments and models using the loosestrife leaf beetle, Galerucella calmariensis.

The ability of an insect to disperse to new habitat patches is difficult to quantify, but key to the establishment and persistence of populations. In this study, we examined dispersal of the phytophagous chrysomelid beetle, Galerucella calmariensis, which is currently being introduced into North America for the biological control of purple loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria), an aggressive wetland weed. We used a mark, release, and recapture approach to determine how rates of colonization of host patches by this beetle are influenced by the distance of the patch from the source of dispersers, and by the presence of conspecifics at the patch. We released color-coded beetles at six distances from a long, linear patch of purple loosestrife that was divided into segments with and without conspecifics. We observed initial flight directions as beetles left the release points and collected all beetles that settled at the target patch. We found a bias in initial flight toward the target for distances up to 50 m. Over the 7 days of the experiment, beetles arrived at the target from all release points, including the farthest release point, 847 m away. G. calmariensis was strongly attracted to conspecifics when settling after dispersal; 86% of the 582 recovered beetles came from the segments inhabited by conspecifics. The probability of an individual arriving at the patch declined steeply with release distance. This relationship fits a model in which beetles move in a random direction and stop if they intercept the target patch, and where beetles are lost at a constant rate with distance travelled. The dispersal and patch-colonizing behavior of G. calmariensis is likely to have important consequences for the biological control program against purple loosestrife.