Potential distributions of pre-Columbian people in Tropical Andean landscapes.

Much has yet to be learned of the spatial patterning of pre-Columbian people across the Tropical Andes. Using compiled archaeological data and a suite of environmental variables, we generate an ensemble species distribution model (SDM) that incorporates general additive models, random forest models and Maxent models to reconstruct spatial patterns of pre-Columbian people that inhabited the Tropical Andes east of the continental divide, within the modern countries of Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador. Within this region, here referred to as the eastern Andean flank, elevation, mean annual cloud frequency, distance to rivers and precipitation of the driest quarter are the environmental variables most closely related to human occupancy. Our model indicates that 11.04% of our study area (65 368 km2) was likely occupied by pre-Columbian people. Our model shows that 30 of 351 forest inventory plots, which are used to generate ecological understanding of Andean ecosystems, were likely occupied in the pre-Columbian period. In previously occupied sites, successional trajectories may still be shaping forest dynamics, and those forests may still be recovering from the ecological legacy of pre-Columbian impacts. Our ensemble SDM links palaeo- and neo-ecology and can also be used to guide both future archaeological and ecological studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Tropical forests in the deep human past'.

Recent climate warming drives ecological change in a remote high-Arctic lake.

The high Arctic is the fastest warming region on Earth, evidenced by extreme near-surface temperature increase in non-summer seasons, recent rapid sea ice decline and permafrost melting since the early 1990's. Understanding the impact of climate change on the sensitive Arctic ecosystem to climate change has so far been hampered by the lack of time-constrained, high-resolution records and by implicit climate data analyses. Here, we show evidence of sharp growth in freshwater green algae as well as distinct diatom assemblage changes since ~1995, retrieved from a high-Arctic (80 °N) lake sediment record on Barentsøya (Svalbard). The proxy record approaches an annual to biennial resolution. Combining remote sensing and in-situ climate data, we show that this ecological change is concurrent with, and is likely driven by, the atmospheric warming and a sharp decrease in the length of the sea ice covered period in the region, and throughout the Arctic. Moreover, this research demonstrates the value of palaeoclimate records in pristine environments for supporting and extending instrumental records. Our results reinforce and extend observations from other sites that the high Arctic has already undergone rapid ecological changes in response to on-going climate change, and will continue to do so in the future.

Region-specific sensitivity of anemophilous pollen deposition to temperature and precipitation.

Understanding relations between climate and pollen production is important for several societal and ecological challenges, importantly pollen forecasting for pollinosis treatment, forensic studies, global change biology, and high-resolution palaeoecological studies of past vegetation and climate fluctuations. For these purposes, we investigate the role of climate variables on annual-scale variations in pollen influx, test the regional consistency of observed patterns, and evaluate the potential to reconstruct high-frequency signals from sediment archives. A 43-year pollen-trap record from the Netherlands is used to investigate relations between annual pollen influx, climate variables (monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation values), and the North Atlantic Oscillation climate index. Spearman rank correlation analysis shows that specifically in Alnus, Betula, Corylus, Fraxinus, Quercus and Plantago both temperature in the year prior to (T-1), as well as in the growing season (T), are highly significant factors (TApril rs between 0.30 [P<0.05[ and 0.58 [P<0.0001]; TJuli-1 rs between 0.32 [P<0.05[ and 0.56 [P<0.0001]) in the annual pollen influx of wind-pollinated plants. Total annual pollen prediction models based on multiple climate variables yield R2 between 0.38 and 0.62 (P<0.0001). The effect of precipitation is minimal. A second trapping station in the SE Netherlands, shows consistent trends and annual variability, suggesting the climate factors are regionally relevant. Summer temperature is thought to influence the formation of reproductive structures, while temperature during the flowering season influences pollen release. This study provides a first predictive model for seasonal pollen forecasting, and also aides forensic studies. Furthermore, variations in pollen accumulation rates from a sub-fossil peat deposit are comparable with the pollen trap data. This suggests that high frequency variability pollen records from natural archives reflect annual past climate variability, and can be used in palaeoecological and -climatological studies to bridge between population- and species-scale responses to climate forcing.