Simulating the Simultaneous Impact of Medication for Opioid Use Disorder and Naloxone on Opioid Overdose Death in Eight New York Counties.

BACKGROUND: The United States is in the midst of an opioid overdose epidemic; 28.3 per 100,000 people died of opioid overdose in 2020. Simulation models can help understand and address this complex, dynamic, and nonlinear social phenomenon. Using the HEALing Communities Study, aimed at reducing opioid overdoses, and an agent-based model, Simulation of Community-Level Overdose Prevention Strategy, we simulated increases in buprenorphine initiation and retention and naloxone distribution aimed at reducing overdose deaths by 40% in New York Counties. METHODS: Our simulations covered 2020-2022. The eight counties contrasted urban or rural and high and low baseline rates of opioid use disorder treatment. The model calibrated agent characteristics for opioid use and use disorder, treatments and treatment access, and fatal and nonfatal overdose. Modeled interventions included increased buprenorphine initiation and retention, and naloxone distribution. We predicted a decrease in the rate of fatal opioid overdose 1 year after intervention, given various modeled intervention scenarios. RESULTS: Counties required unique combinations of modeled interventions to achieve a 40% reduction in overdose deaths. Assuming a 200% increase in naloxone from current levels, high baseline treatment counties achieved a 40% reduction in overdose deaths with a simultaneous 150% increase in buprenorphine initiation. In comparison, low baseline treatment counties required 250-300% increases in buprenorphine initiation coupled with 200-1000% increases in naloxone, depending on the county. CONCLUSIONS: Results demonstrate the need for tailored county-level interventions to increase service utilization and reduce overdose deaths, as the modeled impact of interventions depended on the county's experience with past and current interventions.

Childhood internalizing, externalizing and attention symptoms predict changes in social and nonsocial screen time.

BACKGROUND: While accumulating research has tested the hypothesis that screen time causes psychiatric symptoms in children, less attention has been paid to the hypothesis that children with psychiatric symptoms change their patterns of screen time and digital media use. We aimed to test whether children with psychiatric symptoms subsequently change their patterns of screen time and digital media use. METHODS: N = 9,066 children primarily aged 9-10 in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study at baseline and 1-year later. Psychiatric symptoms included internalizing, attention, and externalizing symptoms. Screen time was measured as ordinally defined weekday and weekend time on social and nonsocial [e.g., YouTube] digital media). Models assessed psychiatric symptoms as predictors of screen time, and screen time as predictors of psychiatric symptoms, controlled for baseline measures of each, sex, age, race/ethnicity, and income. RESULTS: Children with psychiatric symptoms spent more time on non-social media one year later compared with peers. Considering total psychiatric problems, clinical levels of problems predicted higher levels of weekday (OR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.22-1.23) and weekend (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.09-1.11) nonsocial screen time. For nearly all analyses of psychiatric symptoms predicting screen time, associations were highest for a non-social screen time outcome rather than a social screen time outcome (Highest OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.63-1.67, clinical rule breaking predicting weekday nonsocial screen time). Comparable magnitude associations were observed for social and nonsocial media use predicting future psychiatric symptoms, suggesting bidirectionality. CONCLUSION: Children with psychiatric symptoms have different subsequent media use patterns, including higher rates of subsequent nonsocial engagement. Ensuring that ongoing data collection and analysis efforts attend to temporality and transitions in the relation between media use and psychiatric symptoms will accelerate progress in the field.

Age, Period, and Cohort Effects of Internalizing Symptoms Among US Students and the Influence of Self-Reported Frequency of Attaining 7 or More Hours of Sleep: Results From the Monitoring the Future Survey 1991-2019.

Adolescent internalizing symptoms have increased since 2010, whereas adequate sleep has declined for several decades. It remains unclear how self-reported sleep attainment has affected internalizing-symptoms trends. Using 1991-2019 data from the Monitoring the Future Study (n ~ 390,000), we estimated age-period-cohort effects in adolescent internalizing symptoms (e.g., loneliness, self-esteem, self-derogation, depressive affect) and the association with yearly prevalence of a survey-assessed, self-reported measure of attaining ≥7 hours of sleep most nights. We focused our main analysis on loneliness and used median odds ratios to measure variance in loneliness associated with period differences. We observed limited signals for cohort effects and modeled only period effects. The feeling of loneliness increased by 0.83% per year; adolescents in 2019 had 0.68 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.87) increased log odds of loneliness compared with the mean, which was consistent by race/ethnicity and parental education. Girls experienced steeper increases in loneliness than boys (P < 0.0001). The period-effect median odds ratio for loneliness was 1.16 (variance = 0.09; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.17) before adjustment for self-reported frequency of getting ≥7 hours sleep versus 1.07 (variance = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.03) after adjustment. Adolescents across cohorts are experiencing worsening internalizing symptoms. Self-reported frequency of <7 hours sleep partially explains increases in loneliness, indicating the need for feasibility trials to study the effect of increasing sleep attainment on internalizing symptoms.

A Systematic Review of Simulation Models to Track and Address the Opioid Crisis.

The opioid overdose crisis is driven by an intersecting set of social, structural, and economic forces. Simulation models are a tool to help us understand and address thiscomplex, dynamic, and nonlinear social phenomenon. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on simulation models of opioid use and overdose up to September 2019. We extracted modeling types, target populations, interventions, and findings; created a database of model parameters used for model calibration; and evaluated study transparency and reproducibility. Of the 1,398 articles screened, we identified 88 eligible articles. The most frequent types of models were compartmental (36%), Markov (20%), system dynamics (16%), and agent-based models (16%). Intervention cost-effectiveness was evaluated in 40% of the studies, and 39% focused on services for people with opioid use disorder (OUD). In 61% of the eligible articles, authors discussed calibrating their models to empirical data, and in 31%, validation approaches used in the modeling process were discussed. From the 63 studies that provided model parameters, we extracted the data sources on opioid use, OUD, OUD treatment, cessation or relapse, emergency medical services, and death parameters. From this database, potential model inputs can be identified and models can be compared with prior work. Simulation models should be used to tackle key methodological challenges, including the potential for bias in the choice of parameter inputs, investment in model calibration and validation, and transparency in the assumptions and mechanics of simulation models to facilitate reproducibility.

Economic Evaluation in Opioid Modeling: Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: The rapid increase in opioid overdose and opioid use disorder (OUD) over the past 20 years is a complex problem associated with significant economic costs for healthcare systems and society. Simulation models have been developed to capture and identify ways to manage this complexity and to evaluate the potential costs of different strategies to reduce overdoses and OUD. A review of simulation-based economic evaluations is warranted to fully characterize this set of literature. METHODS: A systematic review of simulation-based economic evaluation (SBEE) studies in opioid research was initiated by searches in PubMed, EMBASE, and EbscoHOST. Extraction of a predefined set of items and a quality assessment were performed for each study. RESULTS: The screening process resulted in 23 SBEE studies ranging by year of publication from 1999 to 2019. Methodological quality of the cost analyses was moderately high. The most frequently evaluated strategies were methadone and buprenorphine maintenance treatments; the only harm reduction strategy explored was naloxone distribution. These strategies were consistently found to be cost-effective, especially naloxone distribution and methadone maintenance. Prevention strategies were limited to abuse-deterrent opioid formulations. Less than half (39%) of analyses adopted a societal perspective in their estimation of costs and effects from an opioid-related intervention. Prevention strategies and studies' accounting for patient and physician preference, changing costs, or result stratification were largely ignored in these SBEEs. CONCLUSION: The review shows consistently favorable cost analysis findings for naloxone distribution strategies and opioid agonist treatments and identifies major gaps for future research.

Simulating the Suicide Prevention Effects of Firearms Restrictions Based on Psychiatric Hospitalization and Treatment Records: Social Benefits and Unintended Adverse Consequences.

Objectives. To estimate the number of lives saved from firearms suicide with expansions of gun restrictions based on mental health compared with the number who would be unnecessarily restricted. Methods. Agent-based models simulated effects on suicide mortality resulting from 5-year ownership disqualifications in New York City for individuals with any psychiatric hospitalization and, more broadly, anyone receiving psychiatric treatment. Results. Restrictions based on New York State Office of Mental Health-identified psychiatric hospitalizations reduced suicide among those hospitalized by 85.1% (95% credible interval = 36.5%, 100.0%). Disqualifications for anyone receiving psychiatric treatment reduced firearm suicide rates among those affected and in the population; however, 244 820 people were prohibited from firearm ownership who would not have died from firearm suicide even without the policy. Conclusions. In this simulation, denying firearm access to individuals in psychiatric treatment reduces firearm suicide among those groups but largely will not affect population rates. Broad and unfeasible disqualification criteria would needlessly restrict millions at low risk, with potential consequences for civil rights, increased stigma, and discouraged help seeking.

Recent increases in depressive symptoms among US adolescents: trends from 1991 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: Mental health problems and mental health related mortality have increased among adolescents, particularly girls. These trends have implications for etiology and prevention and suggest new and emerging risk factors in need of attention. The present study estimated age, period, and cohort effects in depressive symptoms among US nationally representative samples of school attending adolescents from 1991 to 2018. METHODS: Data are drawn from 1991 to 2018 Monitoring the Future yearly cross-sectional surveys of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students (N = 1,260,159). Depressive symptoms measured with four questions that had consistent wording and data collection procedures across all 28 years. Age-period-cohort effects estimated using the hierarchical age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: Among girls, depressive symptoms decreased from 1991 to 2011, then reversed course, peaking in 2018; these increases reflected primarily period effects, which compared to the mean of all periods showed a gradual increase starting in 2012 and peaked in 2018 (estimate = 1.15, p < 0.01). Cohort effects were minimal, indicating that increases are observed across all age groups. Among boys, trends were similar although the extent of the increase is less marked compared to girls; there was a declining cohort effect among recently born cohorts, suggesting that increases in depressive symptoms among boys are slower for younger boys compared to older boys in recent years. Trends were generally similar by race/ethnicity and parental education, with a positive cohort effect for Hispanic girls born 1999-2004. CONCLUSIONS: Depressive symptoms are increasing among teens, especially among girls, consistent with increases in depression and suicide. Population variation in psychiatric disorder symptoms highlight the importance of current environmental determinants of psychiatric disorder risk, and provide evidence of emerging risk factors that may be shaping a new and concerning trend in adolescent mental health.

Primary and Repeat Cesarean Deliveries: A Population-based Study in the United States, 1979-2010.

BACKGROUND: Despite the temporal increase in cesarean deliveries, the extent to which maternal age, period, and maternal birth cohorts may have contributed to these trends remains unknown. METHODS: We performed an analysis of 123 million singleton deliveries in the United States (1979-2010). We estimated rate ratio (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for primary and repeat cesarean deliveries. We examined changes in cesarean rates with weighted Poisson regression models across three time-scales: maternal age, year of delivery, and birth cohort (mother's birth year). RESULTS: The primary cesarean rate increased by 68% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 67%, 69%) between 1979 (11.0%) and 2010 (18.5%). Repeat cesarean deliveries increased by 178% (95% CI: 176, 179) from 5.2% in 1979 to 14.4% in 2010. Cesarean rates increased with advancing age. Compared with 1979, the RR for the period effect in primary and repeat cesarean deliveries increased up to 1990, fell to a nadir at 1993, and began to rise thereafter. A small birth cohort effect was evident, with women born before 1950 at increased risk of primary cesarean; no cohort effect was seen for repeat cesarean deliveries. Adjustment for maternal BMI had a small effect on these findings. Period effects in primary cesarean were explained by a combination of trends in obesity and chronic hypertension, as well as demographic shifts over time. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal age and period appear to have important contributions to the temporal increase in the cesarean rates, although the effect of parity on these associations remains undetermined.

Maternal Problem Drinking and Child Mental Health.

BACKGROUND: Offspring of individuals with alcohol use disorders have been shown to have elevated risk for mental health problems. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between maternal problem drinking and child mental health as assessed by three informants in three European countries. METHODS: Data were drawn from the School Child Mental Health in Europe study. Maternal alcohol use was assessed using the alcohol use disorders identification test. Child mental health was assessed using the mother and teacher versions of the strengths and difficulties questionnaire, and the child self-reported Dominic interactive. Analyses were performed on 2,678 individuals, 6-11 year olds. RESULTS: Adjusting for variables associated with maternal drinking, among children eight years old or younger, excessive drinking was not significantly associated with mental health problems, whether reported by the mother, teacher or by the child. However, among girls eight years old and above, problem drinking was associated with conduct problems as reported by the mother (OR = 4.19), teacher reported total difficulties (OR = 4.69), and peer relationship problems (OR = 8.86). It was also associated with the presence of any child-reported disorder (OR = 3.88), externalizing (OR = 5.55) and internalizing disorders (OR = 4.42). Conclusions/Importance: Adjusting for sociodemographic variables and for psychological distress, maternal problem drinking was not significantly associated with child mental health problems in boys or in girls ages six to eight. The association was only present among girls ages 8-11. Examining relationships between mothers and their daughters in the peripubertal period may be a critical window for the development of effective intervention strategies.

Birth Cohorts Analysis of Adolescent Cigarette Smoking and Subsequent Marijuana and Cocaine Use.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether the drug behavior of adults from different birth cohorts is shaped by adolescent drug experiences and whether adult prevalence of marijuana and cocaine use depends on adolescent cigarette or alcohol use prevalence. METHODS: We analyzed 18 birth cohorts comprising 8th, 10th, and 12th graders, sampled from 1991 to 2008, from Monitoring the Future, an annual nationally representative cross-sectional survey of high school students in the United States (n = 864 443). RESULTS: Within cohorts, lifetime rates of 8th and 10th grade cigarette use were significantly associated with subsequent lifetime rates of marijuana and cocaine use, controlling for trends in use and social norms toward drug use. Each percent increase (or decrease) in 8th and 10th grade smoking was associated with an 8% increase (or decrease) in prevalence of later marijuana use and 14% to 23% increase (or decrease) in prevalence of later cocaine use. Relationships were consistent by gender and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalences of smoking in 8th and 10th grade and of marijuana and cocaine use in 12th grade are associated. Public health campaigns should focus on early stages of adolescence, when drug use habits are forming.

Is time spent playing video games associated with mental health, cognitive and social skills in young children?

BACKGROUND: Video games are one of the favourite leisure activities of children; the influence on child health is usually perceived to be negative. The present study assessed the association between the amount of time spent playing video games and children mental health as well as cognitive and social skills. METHODS: Data were drawn from the School Children Mental Health Europe project conducted in six European Union countries (youth ages 6-11, n = 3195). Child mental health was assessed by parents and teachers using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire and by children themselves with the Dominic Interactive. Child video game usage was reported by the parents. Teachers evaluated academic functioning. Multivariable logistic regressions were used. RESULTS: 20 % of the children played video games more than 5 h per week. Factors associated with time spent playing video games included being a boy, being older, and belonging to a medium size family. Having a less educated, single, inactive, or psychologically distressed mother decreased time spent playing video games. Children living in Western European countries were significantly less likely to have high video game usage (9.66 vs 20.49 %) though this was not homogenous. Once adjusted for child age and gender, number of children, mothers age, marital status, education, employment status, psychological distress, and region, high usage was associated with 1.75 times the odds of high intellectual functioning (95 % CI 1.31-2.33), and 1.88 times the odds of high overall school competence (95 % CI 1.44-2.47). Once controlled for high usage predictors, there were no significant associations with any child self-reported or mother- or teacher-reported mental health problems. High usage was associated with decreases in peer relationship problems [OR 0.41 (0.2-0.86) and in prosocial deficits (0.23 (0.07, 0.81)]. CONCLUSIONS: Playing video games may have positive effects on young children. Understanding the mechanisms through which video game use may stimulate children should be further investigated.

Comparing the prevalence of mental health problems in children 6-11 across Europe.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, approximately one in eight children or adolescents suffer from a mental disorder. The present study was designed to determine the cross-national prevalence of mental health problems in children aged 6-11 across seven European countries including Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey. METHODS: Data were collected on 7682 children for whom either parent- or teacher SDQ were completed. RESULTS: The present study provides country-specific normative banding for both parent- and teacher SDQ scores. Overall, 12.8 % of children have any probable disorder, with rates ranging from 15.5 % in Lithuania to 7.8 % in Italy, 3.8 % of children have a probable emotional disorder, 8.4 % probable conduct disorder, and 2.0 % probable hyperactivity/inattention. However, when adjusting for key sociodemographic variables and parental psychological distress, country of residence did not predict the odds of having any disorder. For specific disorders, however, country of residence does have an effect on the odds of presenting with mental health problems. CONCLUSIONS: As normative data are key in the comparison of mental health status on an international level, the present data considerably advance the possibilities of future research. Furthermore, the findings underline the importance of controlling for a number of sociodemographic and parental variables when conducting international comparisons of child mental health. In addition, the findings suggest that efforts are needed locally to assist in the detection and prevention of parental psychological distress.

The Collateral Damage of Mass Incarceration: Risk of Psychiatric Morbidity Among Nonincarcerated Residents of High-Incarceration Neighborhoods.

Objectives. We examined whether residence in neighborhoods with high levels of incarceration is associated with psychiatric morbidity among nonincarcerated community members. Methods. We linked zip code-linked information on neighborhood prison admissions rates to individual-level data on mental health from the Detroit Neighborhood Health Study (2008-2012), a prospective probability sample of predominantly Black individuals. Results. Controlling for individual- and neighborhood-level risk factors, individuals living in neighborhoods with high prison admission rates were more likely to meet criteria for a current (odds ratio [OR] = 2.9; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7, 5.5) and lifetime (OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 1.4, 4.6) major depressive disorder across the 3 waves of follow-up as well as current (OR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.0, 4.2) and lifetime (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.2, 4.5) generalized anxiety disorder than were individuals living in neighborhoods with low prison admission rates. These relationships between neighborhood-level incarceration and mental health were comparable for individuals with and without a personal history of incarceration. Conclusions. Incarceration may exert collateral damage on the mental health of individuals living in high-incarceration neighborhoods, suggesting that the public mental health impact of mass incarceration extends beyond those who are incarcerated.

Maternal smoking and offspring inattention and hyperactivity: results from a cross-national European survey.

In utero exposure to tobacco smoke is associated with adverse neonatal outcomes; the association with later childhood mental health outcomes remains controversial. We used a strategy involving comparison of maternal and paternal smoking reports in a sample pooling data from six diverse European countries. Data were drawn from mother (N = 4,517) and teacher (N = 4,611) reported attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms in school children aged 6-11 in Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Germany, and the Netherlands, surveyed in 2010. Mothers report on self and husband's smoking patterns during the pregnancy period. Logistic regression used with control covariates including demographics, maternal distress, live births, region, and post-pregnancy smoking. In unadjusted models, maternal prenatal smoking was associated with probable ADHD based on mother [Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.82, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 1.45-2.29], teacher (OR = 1.69, 95 % CI 1.33-2.14) and mother plus teacher (OR = 1.49, 95 % CI 1.03-2.17) report. Paternal prenatal smoking was similarly associated with probable ADHD in unadjusted models. When controlled for relevant confounders, maternal prenatal smoking remained a risk factor for offspring probable ADHD based on mother report (OR = 1.44, 95 % CI 1.06-1.96), whereas the effect of paternal prenatal smoking diminished (e.g., mother report: OR = 1.17, 95 % CI 0.92-1.49). Drawing on data from a diverse set of countries across Europe, we document that the association between maternal smoking and offspring ADHD is stronger than that of paternal smoking during the pregnancy period and offspring ADHD. To the extent that confounding is shared between parents, these results reflect a potential intrauterine influence of smoking on ADHD in children.

The health consequences of child mental health problems and parenting styles: unintentional injuries among European schoolchildren.

OBJECTIVE: Unintentional injury is the leading cause of death for schoolchildren. We assessed the association between externalizing psychopathology, parenting style, and unintentional injury in European children in the community. METHODS: Data were drawn from the School Children Mental Health in Europe project and included 4517 schoolchildren across seven diverse European regions. Past-year injuries serious enough to seek medical attention were reported by mothers. Child mental health problems were assessed using validated measures and reported by the mothers, teachers, and children. Parenting styles were based on The Parenting Scale and the Parent Behaviors and Attitudes Questionnaire. RESULTS: Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity symptoms and oppositional defiant symptoms had a higher risk of injury compared to other children whether based on parent report (OR=1.47, 95% C.I. 1.2-1.9), teacher report (OR=1.36, 95% C.I. 1.1-1.7), or parent and teacher report combined (OR=1.53, 95% C.I. 1.1-2.1). Children who self-reported oppositional symptoms also had higher risk of injury (OR=1.6, 95% C.I. 1.1-2.4). Low-caring behavior of parents increased the risk of injury (OR=1.4, 95% C.I. 1.1-1.9). CONCLUSION: Unintentional injury is a potential adverse health consequence of child externalizing problems. Interventions to improve parent-child relationships and prevention as well as focused treatment for externalizing problems may reduce the burden of injury.

State-level tobacco environments and sexual orientation disparities in tobacco use and dependence in the USA.

OBJECTIVE: To describe relationships between tobacco-related environments and disparities in smoking by sexual orientation. METHODS: We examined three aspects of state-level tobacco environments, which were derived from the ImpacTeen State Level Tobacco Control Policy and Prevalence Database: (1) tobacco price and tax data and tobacco control funding; (2) tobacco control policies and (3) tobacco prevalence and norms data. This information was linked to individual-level data on sexual orientation, tobacco use and nicotine dependence in Wave 2 of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (N=34 653; 577 LGB respondents), a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey of adults in the USA. RESULTS: Lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) adults in states with more restrictive tobacco environments were less likely to have ever smoked (AOR=0.78, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.00) and to currently smoke (AOR=0.77, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.99) than LGB adults in more permissive tobacco environments. Further, sexual orientation disparities in past and current smoking, as well as in current nicotine dependence, were lower in states with the most restrictive tobacco environments. Results were robust to adjustment for confounders at the individual and state levels. CONCLUSIONS: Restrictive state-level tobacco environments are correlates of smoking behaviours among LGB adults in the USA; such environments could potentially reduce social inequalities in smoking based on sexual orientation.

Sexual orientation disparities in mental health: the moderating role of educational attainment.

PURPOSE: Mental health disparities between sexual minorities and heterosexuals remain inadequately understood, especially across levels of educational attainment. The purpose of the present study was to test whether education modifies the association between sexual orientation and mental disorder. METHODS: We compared the odds of past 12-month and lifetime psychiatric disorder prevalence (any Axis-I, any mood, any anxiety, any substance use, and comorbidity) between lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) and heterosexual individuals by educational attainment (those with and without a bachelor's degree), adjusting for covariates, and tested for interaction between sexual orientation and educational attainment. Data are drawn from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, a nationally representative survey of non-institutionalized US adults (N = 34,653; 577 LGB). RESULTS: Sexual orientation disparities in mental health are smaller among those with a college education. Specifically, the disparity in those with versus those without a bachelor's degree was attenuated by 100 % for any current mood disorder, 82 % for any current Axis-I disorder, 76 % for any current anxiety disorder, and 67 % for both any current substance use disorder and any current comorbidity. Further, the interaction between sexual orientation and education was statistically significant for any current Axis-I disorder, any current mood disorder, and any current anxiety disorder. Our findings for lifetime outcomes were similar. CONCLUSIONS: The attenuated mental health disparity at higher education levels underscores the particular risk for disorder among LGBs with less education. Future studies should consider selection versus causal factors to explain the attenuated disparity we found at higher education levels.

Would restricting firearm purchases due to alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanor offenses reduce firearm homicide and suicide? An agent-based simulation.

BACKGROUND: Substance-related interactions with the criminal justice system are a potential touchpoint to identify people at risk for firearm violence. We used an agent-based model to simulate the change in firearm violence after disqualifying people from owning a firearm given prior alcohol- and drug-related misdemeanors. METHODS: We created a population of 800,000 agents reflecting a 15% sample of the adult New York City population. RESULTS: Disqualification from purchasing firearms for 5 years after an alcohol-related misdemeanor conviction reduced population-level rates of firearm homicide by 1.0% [95% CI 0.4-1.6%] and suicide by 3.0% [95% CI 1.9-4.0%]. Disqualification based on a drug-related misdemeanor conviction reduced homicide by 1.6% [95% CI 1.1-2.2%] and suicide by 4.6% [95% CI 3.4-5.8%]. Reductions were generally 2 to 8 times larger for agents meeting the disqualification criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Denying firearm access based on a history of drug and alcohol misdemeanors may reduce firearm violence among the high-risk group. Enactment of substance use-related firearms denial criteria needs to be balanced against concerns about introducing new sources of disenfranchisement among already vulnerable populations.

Simulating the bounds of plausibility: Estimating the impact of high-risk versus population-based approaches to prevent firearm injury.

BACKGROUND: Firearm violence remains a persistent public health threat. Comparing the impact of targeted high-risk versus population-based approaches to prevention may point to efficient and efficacious interventions. We used agent-based modeling to conduct a hypothetical experiment contrasting the impact of high-risk (disqualification) and population-based (price increase) approaches on firearm homicide in New York City (NYC). METHODS: We simulated 800,000 agents reflecting a 15% sample of the adult population of NYC. Three groups were considered and disqualified from all firearm ownership for five years, grouped based on prevalence: low prevalence (psychiatric hospitalization, alcohol-related misdemeanor and felony convictions, 0.23%); moderate prevalence (drug misdemeanor convictions, domestic violence restraining orders, 1.03%); and high prevalence (all other felony/misdemeanor convictions, 2.30%). Population-level firearm ownership was impacted by increasing the price of firearms, assuming 1% price elasticity. RESULTS: In this hypothetical scenario, to reduce firearm homicide by 5% in NYC, 25% of the moderate prevalence group, or 12% of the high prevalence group needed to be effectively disqualified; even when all of the low prevalence group was disqualified, homicide did not decrease by 5%. An 18% increase in price similarly reduced firearm homicide by 5.37% (95% CI 4.43-6.31%). Firearm homicide declined monotonically as the proportion of disqualified individuals increased and/or price increased. A combined intervention that both increased price and effectively disqualified "high-risk" groups achieved approximately double the reduction in homicide as any one intervention alone. Increasing illegal firearm ownership by 20%, a hypothetical response to price increases, did not meaningfully change results. CONCLUSION: A key takeaway of our study is that adopting high-risk versus population-based approaches should not be an "either-or" question. When individual risk is variable and diffuse in the population, "high-risk approaches" to firearm violence need to focus on relatively prevalent groups and be highly efficacious in disarming people at elevated risk to achieve meaningful reductions in firearm homicide, though countering issues of social justice and stigma should be carefully considered. Similar reductions can be achieved with population-based approaches, such as price increases, albeit with fewer such countering issues.