Combining fecal immunochemical testing and questionnaire-based risk assessment in selecting participants for colonoscopy screening in the Chinese National Colorectal Cancer Screening Programs: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Screening reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) burden by allowing early resection of precancerous and cancerous lesions. An adequate selection of high-risk individuals and a high uptake rate for colonoscopy screening are critical to identifying people more likely to benefit from screening and allocating healthcare resources properly. We evaluated whether combining a questionnaire-based interview for risk factors with fecal immunochemical test (FIT) outcomes for high-risk assessment is more efficient and economical than a questionnaire-based interview-only strategy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this multicenter, population-based, prospective cohort study, we enrolled community residents aged 40 to 74 years in 29 provinces across China. From 2016 to 2020, a total of 1,526,824 eligible participants were consecutively enrolled in the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) cohort, and 940,605 were enrolled in the Whole Life Cycle of Cancer Screening Program (WHOLE) cohort, with follow-up to December 31, 2022. The mean ages were 56.89 and 58.61 years in CanSPUC and WHOLE, respectively. In the WHOLE cohort, high-risk individuals were identified by combining questionnaire-based interviews to collect data on risk factors (demographics, diet history, family history of CRC, etc.) with FIT outcomes (RF-FIT strategy), whereas in the CanSPUC cohort, high-risk individuals were identified using only interview-based data on risk factors (RF strategy). The primary outcomes were participation rate and yield (detection rate of advanced neoplasm, early-stage detection rate of CRCs [stage I/II], screening yield per 10,000 invitees), which were reported for the entire population and for different gender and age groups. The secondary outcome was the cost per case detected. In total, 71,967 (7.65%) and 281,985 (18.47%) individuals were identified as high-risk and were invited to undergo colonoscopy in the RF-FIT group and RF group, respectively. The colonoscopy participation rate in the RF-FIT group was 26.50% (19,071 of 71,967) and in the RF group was 19.54% (55,106 of 281,985; chi-squared test, p < 0.001). A total of 102 (0.53%) CRCs and 2,074 (10.88%) advanced adenomas were detected by the RF-FIT, versus 90 (0.16%) and 3,593 (6.52%) by the RF strategy (chi-squared test, both p < 0.001). The early-stage detection rate using the RF-FIT strategy was significantly higher than that by the RF strategy (67.05% versus 47.95%, Fisher's exact test, p = 0.016). The cost per CRC detected was $24,849 by the RF-FIT strategy versus $55,846 by the RF strategy. A limitation of the study was lack of balance between groups with regard to family history of CRC (3.5% versus 0.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopy participation and screening yield were better with the RF-FIT strategy. The association with CRC incidence and mortality reduction should be evaluated after long-term follow-up.

Risk-Adapted Starting Age for Personalized Colorectal Cancer Screening: Validated Evidence From National Population-Based Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A one-size-fits-all approach to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening that does not account for CRC risk factors is not conducive to personalized screening. On the basis of the principle of equal management of equal risks, we aimed to tailor and validate risk-adapted starting ages of CRC screening for individuals with different CRC risk factors. METHODS: A multi-center community-based population cohort (N = 3,165,088) was used to evaluate the starting age of CRC screening with comprehensive consideration of risk factors. Age-specific 10-year cumulative risk curves were used to determine when individuals at greater risk for CRC reached the same risk level as the 50-year-old general population, which is currently the recommended starting age for CRC screening in China. RESULTS: During the study follow-up period (2013-2021), 4,840 incident CRCs were recorded. Family history of CRC, adverse lifestyle, and comorbidities demonstrated heterogeneous associations with CRC risk (hazard ratios, 1.05-1.55; P < .05). Men and women with CRC family history and at least 2 risk factors reached the standard benchmark risk (0.28%) for screening at the age of 40, 10 years earlier than their peers without risk factors in the general population. Proposed starting ages for CRC screening were validated in an independent community-based population cohort (N = 1,023,367). CONCLUSIONS: We determined a risk-adapted CRC screening starting age for individuals with various CRC risk factors. Earlier, personalized screening based on these findings could allow for scarce health resources to be dedicated to individuals who benefit most.

Development, validation, and evaluation of a risk assessment tool for personalized screening of gastric cancer in Chinese populations.

BACKGROUND: Effective risk prediction models are lacking for personalized endoscopic screening of gastric cancer (GC). We aimed to develop, validate, and evaluate a questionnaire-based GC risk assessment tool for risk prediction and stratification in the Chinese population. METHODS: In this three-stage multicenter study, we first selected eligible variables by Cox regression models and constructed a GC risk score (GCRS) based on regression coefficients in 416,343 subjects (aged 40-75 years) from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB, development cohort). In the same age range, we validated the GCRS effectiveness in 13,982 subjects from another independent Changzhou cohort (validation cohort) as well as in 5348 subjects from an endoscopy screening program in Yangzhou. Finally, we categorized participants into low (bottom 20%), intermediate (20-80%), and high risk (top 20%) groups by the GCRS distribution in the development cohort. RESULTS: The GCRS using 11 questionnaire-based variables demonstrated a Harrell's C-index of 0.754 (95% CI, 0.745-0.762) and 0.736 (95% CI, 0.710-0.761) in the two cohorts, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 10-year risk was 0.34%, 1.05%, and 4.32% for individuals with a low (≤ 13.6), intermediate (13.7~30.6), and high (≥ 30.7) GCRS, respectively. In the endoscopic screening program, the detection rate of GC varied from 0.00% in low-GCRS individuals, 0.27% with intermediate GCRS, to 2.59% with high GCRS. A proportion of 81.6% of all GC cases was identified from the high-GCRS group, which represented 28.9% of all the screened participants. CONCLUSIONS: The GCRS can be an effective risk assessment tool for tailored endoscopic screening of GC in China. Risk Evaluation for Stomach Cancer by Yourself (RESCUE), an online tool was developed to aid the use of GCRS.

Development and validation of a blood biomarker score for predicting mortality risk in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Blood biomarkers for multiple pathways, such as inflammatory response, lipid metabolism, and hormonal regulation, have been suggested to influence the risk of mortality. However, few studies have systematically evaluated the combined predictive ability of blood biomarkers for mortality risk. METHODS: We included 267,239 participants from the UK Biobank who had measurements of 28 blood biomarkers and were free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer at baseline (2006-2010). We developed sex-specific blood biomarker scores for predicting all-cause mortality risk in a training set of 247,503 participants from England and Wales, and validated the results in 19,736 participants from Scotland. Cox and LASSO regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors for men and women separately. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated by C-index and calibration plots, respectively. We also assessed mediating effects of the biomarkers on the association between traditional risk factors (current smoking, obesity, physical inactivity, hypertension, diabetes) and mortality. RESULTS: A total of 13 independent predictive biomarkers for men and 17 for women were identified and included in the score development. Compared to the lowest tertile of the score, the highest tertile showed a hazard ratio of 5.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.04-5.71) in men and 4.23 (95% CI 3.87-4.62) in women for all-cause mortality. In the validation set, the score yielded a C-index of 0.73 (95% CI 0.72-0.75) in men and 0.70 (95% CI 0.68-0.73) in women for all-cause mortality; it was also predictive of CVD (C-index of 0.76 in men and 0.79 in women) and cancer (C-index of 0.70 in men and 0.67 in women) mortality. Moreover, the association between traditional risk factors and all-cause mortality was largely mediated by cystatin C, C-reactive protein, 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and hemoglobin A1c. CONCLUSIONS: We established sex-specific blood biomarker scores for predicting all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the general population, which hold the potential to identify high-risk individuals and improve targeted prevention of premature death.

Associations of diabetes, prediabetes and diabetes duration with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A prospective UK Biobank study.

AIM: To investigate the associations of diabetes, prediabetes and diabetes duration with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk and survival in the UK Biobank. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective analysis among 452 680 participants without COPD at baseline using UK Biobank data. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from Cox regression models. The dose-response relationship was explored using restricted cubic splines. A separate survival analysis was conducted for 12 595 patients with incident COPD. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 12 595 cases of COPD were documented. Compared with the reference group, those with prediabetes and diabetes were associated with an 18% (HR 1.18 [95% CI: 1.13-1.24]) and 35% (HR 1.35 [95% CI: 1.24-1.47]) higher risk of COPD, respectively. Diabetes duration was associated with COPD risk, with multivariable HRs (95% CIs) of 1.23 (1.05-1.44), 1.20 (1.04-1.39) and 1.18 (1.01-1.37) for diabetes duration of 7 years or longer, 3 to less than 7 years, and 1 to less than 3 years versus less than 1 year, respectively. Dose-response analysis revealed a non-linear relationship between diabetes duration and COPD risk. Regarding COPD survival, COPD patients with prediabetes and diabetes had a 9% (HR 1.09 [95% CI: 1.00-1.19]) and 21% (HR 1.21 [95% CI: 1.05-1.41]) higher risk of overall death, respectively. Compared with the cases with a diabetes duration of less than 1 year, those with a diabetes duration of 7 years or longer were associated with a 46% higher risk of overall death (HR 1.46 [95% CI: 1.11-1.92]). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that diabetes, prediabetes and a longer diabetes duration are associated with a higher risk of and worse survival for COPD. Future studies are warranted to determine the optimal way of diabetes control that might reduce COPD risk.

Association between glycated haemoglobin and the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A prospective cohort study in UK biobank.

AIMS: To investigate the association between glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) incidents in the general population, and the association between HbA1c levels and mortality in patients with COPD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We investigated the association of HbA1c levels with COPD risk in the general population in the UK Biobank, using data from 420 065 participants. Survival analysis was conducted for 18 854 patients with COPD. We used restricted cubic spline analysis to assess the dose-response relationship between HbA1c levels and COPD risk and survival. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.3 years, 11 556 COPD cases were recorded. HbA1c had a non-linear relationship with COPD risk (p for non-linearity < .05). Compared with the quintile 2 (32.2-<34.3 mmol/mol), those with HbA1c levels above 38.7 mmol/mol (quintile 5) had a 22% (HR, 1.22, 95% CI: 1.15-1.30) higher risk of COPD. Compared with the HbA1c decile 2 (30.5-<32.2 mmol/mol), the HRs (95% CI) of COPD risk were 1.16 (1.03-1.30) and 1.36 (1.24-1.50) in the lowest HbA1c decile (<30.5 mmol/mol) and highest decile (≥41.0 mmol/mol), respectively. The increased COPD risk associated with HbA1c was more pronounced in younger, current smokers, passive smokers, and participants with a higher Townsend deprivation index (all p for interaction < .05). Among patients with COPD, 4569 COPD cases died (488 because of COPD) during a median follow-up of 5.4 years. Regarding COPD survival, HbA1c had a non-linear relationship with all-cause death (p for non-linearity < .05). Those with HbA1c quintile 5 (≥38.7 mmol/mol) had a 23% (HR, 1.23, 95% CI: 1.10-1.37) higher risk of all-cause death compared with the quintile 2 (32.2-<34.3 mmol/mol). Compared with the HbA1c decile 4 (33.3-<34.3 mmol/mol), those in the lowest HbA1c decile (<30.5 mmol/mol) and highest HbA1c decile (≥41.0 mmol/mol) had 22% (HR, 1.22; 95% CI: 1.01-1.47) and 28% (HR, 1.28; 95% CI: 1.11-1.48) higher risk for overall death. However, no significant association was observed between HbA1c levels and the risk of COPD-specific death. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicated that lower and higher HbA1c levels were associated with a higher risk of COPD. In COPD cases, lower and higher HbA1c levels were associated with a higher COPD all-cause death risk.

Untargeted plasma metabolomics for risk prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma: A prospective study in two Chinese cohorts.

Characterization of metabolic perturbation prior to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may deepen the understanding of causal pathways and identify novel biomarkers for early prevention. We conducted two 1:1 matched nested case-control studies (108 and 55 pairs) to examine the association of plasma metabolome (profiled using LC-MS) with the risk of HCC based on two prospective cohorts in China. Differential metabolites were identified by paired t tests and orthogonal partial least-squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA). Weighted gene coexpression network analysis (WGCNA) was performed to classify metabolites into modules for identifying biological pathways involved in hepatocarcinogenesis. We assessed the risk predictivity of metabolites using multivariable logistic regression models. Among 612 named metabolites, 44 differential metabolites were identified between cases and controls, including 12 androgenic/progestin steroid hormones, 8 bile acids, 10 amino acids, 6 phospholipids, and 8 others. These metabolites were associated with HCC in the multivariable logistic regression analyses, with odds ratios ranging from 0.19 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11-0.35) to 5.09 (95% CI: 2.73-9.50). WGCNA including 612 metabolites showed 8 significant modules related to HCC risk, including those representing metabolic pathways of androgen and progestin, primary and secondary bile acids, and amino acids. A combination of 18 metabolites of independent effects showed the potential to predict HCC risk, with an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.82-0.92) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.80-0.93) in the training and validation sets, respectively. In conclusion, we identified a panel of plasma metabolites that could be implicated in hepatocellular carcinogenesis and have the potential to predict HCC risk.

Adherence to a healthy lifestyle in relation to colorectal cancer incidence and all-cause mortality after endoscopic polypectomy: A prospective study in three U.S. cohorts.

It remains unknown whether maintenance of a healthy lifestyle after endoscopic polypectomy could still confer benefit for colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. In this study, we defined a healthy lifestyle score based on body mass index, smoking, physical activity, alcohol consumption and diet (range, 0-5). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for the associations of healthy lifestyle score and individual lifestyle factors with CRC incidence and all-cause mortality. During a median of 10 years of follow-up of 24 668 participants who underwent endoscopic polypectomy, we documented 161 CRC cases and 4857 all-cause deaths. A higher healthy lifestyle score after endoscopic polypectomy was associated with lower risk of CRC and all-cause mortality. Compared with individuals with 0 to 1 healthy lifestyle factors, those with 2, 3 and 4 to 5 healthy lifestyle factors had a HR for CRC risk of 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60-1.24), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.47-1.14) and 0.52 (95% CI, 0.27-1.01), respectively (Ptrend  = .03). The corresponding HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.90), 0.63 (95% CI, 0.56-0.70) and 0.56 (95% CI, 0.48-0.65), respectively (Ptrend < .0001). In the joint analysis of pre- and postpolypectomy periods, patients with a healthy postpolypectomy lifestyle had a lower incidence of CRC regardless of their prepolypectomy exposure, whereas those with a healthy lifestyle in both periods had a lower mortality than those with an unhealthy lifestyle in either period. In conclusion, adherence to a healthy lifestyle after polypectomy may confer significant benefit for CRC prevention and reduction in all-cause mortality.

C-reactive protein and cancer risk: a pan-cancer study of prospective cohort and Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although observational studies have reported associations between serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration and risks of lung, breast, and colorectal cancer, inconsistent or absent evidences were showed for other cancers. We conducted a pan-cancer analysis to comprehensively assess the role of CRP, including linearity and non-linearity associations. METHODS: We analyzed 420,964 cancer-free participants from UK Biobank cohort. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was conducted to evaluate the observed correlation of CRP with overall cancer and 21 site-specific cancer risks. Furthermore, we performed linear and non-linear Mendelian randomization analyses to explore the potential causal relation between them. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 7.1 years (interquartile range: 6.3, 7.7), 34,979 incident cancer cases were observed. Observational analyses showed higher CRP concentration was associated with increased risk of overall cancer (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.02 per 1mg/L increase, P < 0.001). There was a non-linear association between CRP and overall cancer risk with inflection point at 3mg/L (false-discovery rate adjust (FDR-adjusted) Poverall < 0.001 and FDR-adjusted Pnon-linear < 0.001). For site-specific cancer, we observed positive linear associations for cancers of esophagus and stomach (FDR-adjusted Poverall < 0.050 and FDR-adjusted Pnon-linear > 0.050). In addition, we also observed three different patterns of non-linear associations, including "fast-to-low increase" (head and neck, colorectal, liver, lung, kidney cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma), "increase-to-decrease" (breast cancer), and "decrease-to-platform" (chronic lymphocytic leukemia). Furthermore, the inflection points of non-linear association patterns were consistently at around 3mg/L. By contrast, there was no evidence for linear or non-linear associations between genetically predicted CRP and risks of overall cancer or site-specific cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that CRP was a potential biomarker to assess risks of overall cancer and 12 site-specific cancers, while no association were observed for genetically-predicted CRP and cancer risks.

Associations between body shape across the life course and adulthood concentrations of sex hormones in men and pre- and postmenopausal women: a multicohort study.

The objective was to investigate associations between life-course adiposity and sex hormone concentrations: trajectory of adiposity from age 5 to 40 (premenopausal)/60 (postmenopausal women and men) in relation to levels of oestrone (E1), oestradiol (E2), sex hormone-binding globulins (SHBG), testosterone in 4801 premenopausal and 6019 postmenopausal women in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHS II, and 2431 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. We used group-based trajectory models to identify groups within each cohort based on recalled somatotypes and reported BMI. Multivariate linear regression models were used to compare sex hormone concentration across different trajectory groups. The mean age at blood draw was 64·1 ± 8·1 years for men, 59·4 ± 6·0 for postmenopausal and 44·1 ± 4·6 for premenopausal women. In men, compared with the medium-stable group, lean-marked increase and medium increase groups had lower levels of SHBG (percentage difference: -17 and -9 %) and testosterone (-15 and -13 %). In postmenopausal women, compared with the medium-stable group, lean-marked increase and medium increase groups had higher levels of E1 (21 and 34 %) and E2 (45 and 68 %) but lower level of SHBG (-29 and -35 %). In premenopausal women, compared with the lean-moderate increase group, medium-stable/increase and heavy-stable/increase groups had lower levels of SHBG (-6 and -28 %). Attained adulthood adiposity and middle-life weight gain were associated with lower SHBG and testosterone in men, higher E1 and E2 and lower SHBG in postmenopausal women, and lower SHBG in premenopausal women. The study indicates the importance of maintaining a healthy body weight throughout life course for homoeostasis of sex hormones.

Plasma metabolomic profiles for colorectal cancer precursors in women.

How metabolome changes influence the early process of colorectal cancer (CRC) development remains unknown. We conducted a 1:2 matched nested case-control study to examine the associations of pre-diagnostic plasma metabolome (profiled using LC-MS) with risk of CRC precursors, including conventional adenomas (n = 586 vs. 1141) and serrated polyps (n = 509 vs. 993), in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We used the permutation-based Westfall and Young approach to account for multiple testing. Subgroup analyses were performed for advanced conventional adenomas (defined as at least one adenoma of ≥ 10 mm or with high-grade dysplasia, or tubulovillous or villous histology) and high-risk serrated polyps that were located in the proximal colon or with size of ≥ 10 mm. After multiple testing correction, among 207 metabolites, higher levels of C36:3 phosphatidylcholine (PC) plasmalogen were associated with lower risk of conventional adenomas, with the OR (95% CI) comparing the 90th to the 10th percentile of 0.62 (0.48-0.81); C54:8 triglyceride (TAG) was associated with higher risk of serrated polyps (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.31-2.43), and phenylacetylglutamine (PAG) was associated with lower risk (OR = 0.57, 95% CI:0.43-0.77). PAG was also inversely associated with advanced adenomas (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.36-0.89) and high-risk serrated polyps (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.32-0.89), although the multiple testing-corrected p value was > 0.05. Our findings suggest potential roles of lipid metabolism and phenylacetylglutamine, a microbial metabolite, in the early stage of colorectal carcinogenesis, particularly for the serrated pathway.

Risk Assessment for Longitudinal Trajectories of Modifiable Lifestyle Factors on Chronic Kidney Disease Burden in China: A Population-based Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an important contributor to morbidity and mortality from noncommunicable diseases. We aimed to examine the longitudinal trajectories in risk factors, estimate their impact on CKD burden in China from 1991 to 2011, and project trends in the next 20 years. METHODS: We used data from a cohort of the China Health and Nutrition Survey and applied the comparative risk assessment method to estimate the number of CKD events attributable to all non-optimal levels of each risk factors. RESULTS: In 2011, current smoking was the leading individual attributable factor for CKD burden in China responsible for 7.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.5-8.3) million CKD cases with a population-attributable fraction of 8.7% (95% CI, 6.0-11.6), while the rates of smoking have reduced and may have mitigated the increase in CKD. High triglyceride (TG) and high systolic blood pressure (SBP) were the leading metabolic risk factors responsible for 6.8 (95% CI, 6.4-7.1) million and 5.8 (95% CI, 5.5-6.1) million CKD-attributable cases, respectively. Additionally, the number of CKD cases associated with high body mass index (BMI), high diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high plasma glucose, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was 5.4 (95% CI, 5.1-5.6), 3.9 (95% CI, 3.7-4.1), 3.0 (95% CI, 2.8-3.1) and 2.6 (95% CI, 2.5-2.8) million, respectively. CONCLUSION: Current smoking, high TG, and high SBP were the top three risk factors that contributed to CKD burden in China. Increased BMI, DBP, plasma glucose, and decreased HDL-C were also associated with the increase in CKD burden.

Genetic Obesity Variants and Risk of Conventional Adenomas and Serrated Polyps.

BACKGROUND: Higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer. How genetically predicted BMI may be associated with colorectal cancer precursors is unknown. AIMS: Our objective was to quantify the association of genetically predicted and measured BMI with risk of colorectal cancer precursors. METHODS: We evaluated the association of genetically predicted and measured BMI with risk of conventional adenomas, serrated polyps, and synchronous polyps among 27,426 participants who had undergone at least one lower gastrointestinal endoscopy in the Nurses' Health Study, Nurses' Health Study II, and Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Genetic risk score was derived from 97 BMI-related single nucleotide polymorphisms. Multivariable logistic regression evaluated each polyp subtype compared to non-polyps. RESULTS: For conventional adenomas, the OR per 2-kg/m2 increase was 1.03 (95% CI, 1.01-1.04) for measured BMI and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.88-1.10) for genetically predicted BMI; for serrated polyps, the OR was 1.06 (95% CI, 1.04-1.08) and 1.04 (95% CI, 0.90-1.20), respectively; for synchronous polyps, the OR was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.07-1.13) and 1.09 (95% CI, 0.89-1.34), respectively. Genetically predicted BMI was associated with synchronous polyps in women (OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.05-1.79). CONCLUSION: Genetically predicted BMI was not associated with colorectal cancer precursor lesions. The confidence intervals were wide and encompassed those for measured BMI, indicating that null findings may be due to insufficient power.

Associations of vitamin D status with colorectal cancer risk and survival.

Biological evidence suggests that vitamin D has numerous anticancer functions, but the associations between vitamin D status and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and survival remain inconclusive. Based on UK Biobank, we prospectively evaluated the associations of season-standardized 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations with CRC risk among 360 061 participants, and with survival among 2509 CRC cases. We observed an inverse linear relationship between 25(OH)D concentrations and CRC risk (P for linearity = .01; HR per 1-SD increment, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99). Compared to the lowest quartile of 25(OH)D, the highest quartile was associated with a 13% (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.77-0.98) lower risk of CRC. For CRC survival, compared to those in the lowest quartile of 25(OH)D, cases in the highest quartile had a 20% (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.65-0.99) lower risk for overall death. Our findings indicate that higher concentrations of serum 25(OH)D are associated with lower incidence and improved survival of CRC, suggesting a role of vitamin D in the pathogenesis of CRC.

Risk prediction models for colorectal cancer: Evaluating the discrimination due to added biomarkers.

Most risk prediction models for colorectal cancer (CRC) are based on questionnaires and show a modest discriminatory ability. Therefore, we aim to develop risk prediction models incorporating plasma biomarkers for CRC to improve discrimination. We assessed the predictivity of 11 biomarkers in 736 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study and 639 women in the Nurses' Health Study. We used stepwise logistic regression to examine whether a set of biomarkers improved the predictivity on the basis of predictors in the National Cancer Institute's (NCI) Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Model discrimination was assessed using C-statistics. Bootstrap with 500 randomly sampled replicates was used for internal validation. The models containing each biomarker generated a C-statistic ranging from 0.50 to 0.59 in men and 0.50 to 0.54 in women. The NCI model demonstrated a C-statistic (95% CI) of 0.67 (0.62-0.71) in men and 0.58 (0.54-0.63) in women. Through stepwise selection of biomarkers, the C-statistic increased to 0.70 (0.66-0.74) in men after adding growth/differentiation factor 15, total adiponectin, sex hormone binding globulin and tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 1B (P for difference = 0.008); and increased to 0.62 (0.57-0.66) in women after further including insulin-like growth factor 1 and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3 (P for difference = .06). The NCI + selected biomarkers model was internally validated with a C-statistic (95% CI) of 0.73 (0.70-0.77) in men and 0.66 (0.61-0.70) in women. Circulating plasma biomarkers may improve the performance of risk factor-based prediction model for CRC.

A prospective study of erythrocyte polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of colorectal serrated polyps and conventional adenomas.

The influence of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) on risk of colorectal cancer precursors remains largely unknown. We examined the associations of erythrocyte PUFAs, including n-3 and n-6 PUFAs, with risk of colorectal conventional adenomas and serrated polyps in 4517 participants from three US prospective cohorts who had provided a blood sample and undergone at least one endoscopic examination. We calculated the multivariable odds ratios (ORs) per 1 SD increment in individual PUFAs and the ratio of n-6/n-3 PUFAs. We considered P < .005 statistically significant to account for multiple testing. During a median of 20 years of follow-up, we documented 493 conventional adenomas and 316 serrated polyps. After adjusting for various CRC risk factors, no associations for PUFAs achieved the stringent statistical significance for either conventional adenomas or serrated polyps (ORs per 1 SD ranged from 0.90 to 1.14). Some associations achieved nominal significance (P < .05), including the association of dihomogammalinolenic acid (DGLA) (20:3, n-6) with lower risk of conventional adenomas (OR = 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.83-1.00), total n-6 PUFAs with higher risk of proximal serrated polyps (OR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.01-1.74) and eicosadienoic acid (20:2, n-6) and DGLA with lower risk of advanced adenomas (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.71-0.97 and OR = 0.84; 95% CI = 0.72-0.98, respectively). Our findings indicate that erythrocyte PUFAs in a typical American diet are unlikely to have a substantial influence on risk of colorectal cancer precursors. The subgroup associations require further confirmation.

Circulating liver function markers and colorectal cancer risk: A prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank.

Evidence links the liver to development of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it remains unknown how liver function may influence CRC risk in the general population. We conducted a prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank of 375 693 participants who provided blood samples in 2006 to 2010. Circulating levels of liver function markers (alanine transaminase [ALT], aspartate transaminase [AST], total bilirubin [TBIL], gamma glutamyltransferase [GGT], alkaline phosphatase [ALP], total protein [TP] and albumin [ALB]) were measured. Incident cancer cases were identified through linkage to the national cancer registry up to 2019. Repeated biomarker measurements were available from a subset of 11 320 participants who were re-assessed in 2012 to 2013. After a median follow-up of 10.0 years, we documented 2662 cases of CRC. Circulating levels of ALT, AST, TBIL, GGT, TP and ALB at baseline were inversely associated with CRC risk (P < .01), with multivariable hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) comparing decile 10 vs 1 of 0.62 (0.51-0.75), 0.63 (0.53-0.75), 0.85 (0.72-1.02), 0.74 (0.61-0.89), 0.70 (0.59-0.84) and 0.66 (0.55-0.79), respectively. Strengthened associations were found after recalibration for repeated measurements. The associations appeared stronger for proximal colon cancer than distal colon cancer and rectal cancer, but consistent for early-, mid- and late-onset CRC. In a large cohort of general population, the UK Biobank, higher circulating levels of ALT, AST, TBIL, GGT, TP and ALB, largely within the normal range, were associated with a lower risk of CRC. The findings support a link between liver function and CRC, and may spur future research on the gut-microbiota-liver axis.

Genome-wide association study of cervical cancer suggests a role for ARRDC3 gene in human papillomavirus infection.

The development of cervical cancer is initiated by human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and involves both viral and host genetic factors. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of cervical cancer have identified associations in the HLA locus and two loci outside HLA, but the principal genes that control infection and pathogenesis have not been identified. In the present study, we performed GWAS of cervical cancer in East Asian populations, involving 2609 cases and 4712 controls in the discovery stage and 1461 cases and 3295 controls in the follow-up stage. We identified novel-significant associations at 5q14 with the lead single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs59661306 (P = 2.4 × 10-11) and at 7p11 with the lead SNP rs7457728 (P = 1.2 × 10-8). In 5q14, the chromatin region of the GWAS-significant SNPs was found to be in contact with the promoter of the ARRDC3 (arrestin domain-containing 3) gene. In our functional studies, ARRDC3 knockdown in HeLa cells caused significant reductions in both cell growth and susceptibility to HPV16 pseudovirion infection, suggesting that ARRDC3 is involved in the infectious entry of HPV into the cell. Our study advances the understanding of host genes that are responsible for cervical cancer susceptibility and guides future research on HPV infection and cancer development.

Risk Factor Profiles Differ for Cancers of Different Regions of the Colorectum.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The molecular features of colorectal tumors differ with their anatomic location. Colorectal tumors are usually classified as proximal or distal. We collected data from 3 cohorts to identify demographic, clinical, anthropometric, lifestyle, and dietary risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC) at 7 anatomic subsites. We examined whether the associations differ among refined subsites and whether there are trends in associations from cecum to rectum. METHODS: We collected data from the Nurses' Health Study, Nurses' Health Study 2, and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (45,351 men and 178,016 women, followed for a median 23 years) on 24 risk factors in relation to risk of cancer in cecum, ascending colon, transverse colon, descending colon, sigmoid colon, rectosigmoid junction, and rectum. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. We tested for linear and nonlinear trends in associations with CRC among subsites and within proximal colon, distal colon, and rectum. RESULTS: We documented 3058 cases of CRC (474 in cecum, 633 in ascending colon, 250 in transverse colon, 221 in descending colon, 750 in sigmoid colon, 202 in rectosigmoid junction, and 528 in rectum). The positive associations with cancer risk decreased, from cecum to rectum, for age and family history of CRC. In contrast, the inverse associations with cancer risk increased, from cecum to rectum, for endoscopic screening and intake of whole grains, cereal fiber, and processed red meat. There was a significant nonlinear trend in the association between CRC and female sex, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.73 for ascending colon cancer to 0.54 for sigmoid colon cancer. For proximal colon cancers, the association with alcohol consumption and smoking before age 30 years increased from the cecum to transverse colon. For distal colon cancers, the positive association with waist circumference in men was greater for descending vs sigmoid colon cancer. CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of 3058 cases of CRC, we found that risk factor profiles differed for cancers along the colorectum. Proximal vs distal classifications are not sufficient to encompass the regional variations in colorectal tumor features and risk factors.

Long-term Risk of Colorectal Cancer After Removal of Conventional Adenomas and Serrated Polyps.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Endoscopic screening reduces incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) because precursor lesions, such as conventional adenomas or serrated polyps, are removed. Individuals with polypectomies are advised to undergo colonoscopy surveillance to prevent CRC. However, guidelines for surveillance intervals after diagnosis of a precursor lesion, particularly for individuals with serrated polyps, vary widely, and lack sufficient supporting evidence. Consequently, some high-risk patients do not receive enough surveillance and lower-risk subjects receive excessive surveillance. METHODS: We examined the association between findings from first endoscopy and CRC risk among 122,899 participants who underwent flexible sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy in the Nurses' Health Study 1 (1990-2012), Nurses' Health Study 2 (1989-2013), or the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1990-2012). Endoscopic findings were categorized as no polyp, conventional adenoma, or serrated polyp (hyperplastic polyp, traditional serrated adenoma, or sessile serrated adenoma, with or without cytological dysplasia). Conventional adenomas were classified as advanced (≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia, or tubulovillous or villous histology) or nonadvanced, and serrated polyps were assigned to categories of large (≥10 mm) or small (<10 mm). We used a Cox proportional hazards regression model to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) of CRC incidence, after adjusting for various potential risk factors. RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 10 years, we documented 491 incident cases of CRC: 51 occurred in 6161 participants with conventional adenomas, 24 in 5918 participants with serrated polyps, and 427 in 112,107 participants with no polyp. Compared with participants with no polyp detected during initial endoscopy, the multivariable HR for incident CRC in individuals with an advanced adenoma was 4.07 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.89-5.72) and the HR for CRC in individuals with a large serrated polyp was 3.35 (95% CI 1.37-8.15). In contrast, there was no significant increase in risk of CRC in patients with nonadvanced adenomas (HR 1.21; 95% CI 0.68-2.16, P = .52) or small serrated polyps (HR 1.25; 95% CI 0.76-2.08; P = .38). CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide support for guidelines that recommend repeat lower endoscopy within 3 years of a diagnosis of advanced adenoma and large serrated polyps. In contrast, patients with nonadvanced adenoma or small serrated polyps may not require more intensive surveillance than patients without polyps.