Operational response simulation tool for epidemics within refugee and IDP settlements: A scenario-based case study of the Cox's Bazar settlement.

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world's most vulnerable populations most affected. Given their density and available infrastructure, refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements can be particularly susceptible to disease spread. In this paper we present an agent-based modeling approach to simulating the spread of disease in refugee and IDP settlements under various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. The model, based on the June open-source framework, is informed by data on geography, demographics, comorbidities, physical infrastructure and other parameters obtained from real-world observations and previous literature. The development and testing of this approach focuses on the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh, although our model is designed to be generalizable to other informal settings. Our findings suggest the encouraging self-isolation at home of mild to severe symptomatic patients, as opposed to the isolation of all positive cases in purpose-built isolation and treatment centers, does not increase the risk of secondary infection meaning the centers can be used to provide hospital support to the most intense cases of COVID-19. Secondly we find that mask wearing in all indoor communal areas can be effective at dampening viral spread, even with low mask efficacy and compliance rates. Finally, we model the effects of reopening learning centers in the settlement under various mitigation strategies. For example, a combination of mask wearing in the classroom, halving attendance regularity to enable physical distancing, and better ventilation can almost completely mitigate the increased risk of infection which keeping the learning centers open may cause. These modeling efforts are being incorporated into decision making processes to inform future planning, and further exercises should be carried out in similar geographies to help protect those most vulnerable.

A mixed-method approach to determining contact matrices in the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement.

Contact matrices are an important ingredient in age-structured epidemic models to inform the simulated spread of the disease between subgroups of the population. These matrices are generally derived using resource-intensive diary-based surveys and few exist in the Global South or tailored to vulnerable populations. In particular, no contact matrices exist for refugee settlements-locations under-served by epidemic models in general. In this paper, we present a novel, mixed-method approach for deriving contact matrices in populations, which combines a lightweight, rapidly deployable survey with an agent-based model of the population informed by census and behavioural data. We use this method to derive the first set of contact matrices for the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. To validate our approach, we apply it to the UK population and compare our derived matrices with well-known contact matrices collected using traditional methods. Our findings demonstrate that our mixed-method approach successfully addresses some of the challenges faced by traditional and agent-based approaches to deriving contact matrices. It also shows potential for implementation in resource-constrained environments. This work therefore contributes to a broader aim of developing new methods and mechanisms of data collection for modelling disease spread in refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements and better serving these vulnerable communities.

Epidemiological modelling in refugee and internally displaced people settlements: challenges and ways forward.

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world's most vulnerable populations at risk. Epidemiological modelling is vital to guiding evidence-informed or data-driven decision making. In forced displacement contexts, and in particular refugee and internally displaced people (IDP) settlements, it meets several challenges including data availability and quality, the applicability of existing models to those contexts, the accurate modelling of cultural differences or specificities of those operational settings, the communication of results and uncertainties, as well as the alignment of strategic goals between diverse partners in complex situations. In this paper, we systematically review the limited epidemiological modelling work applied to refugee and IDP settlements so far, and discuss challenges and identify lessons learnt from the process. With the likelihood of disease outbreaks expected to increase in the future as more people are displaced due to conflict and climate change, we call for the development of more approaches and models specifically designed to include the unique features and populations of refugee and IDP settlements. To strengthen collaboration between the modelling and the humanitarian public health communities, we propose a roadmap to encourage the development of systems and frameworks to share needs, build tools and coordinate responses in an efficient and scalable manner, both for this pandemic and for future outbreaks.

The health response to the Rohingya refugee crisis post August 2017: Reflections from two years of health sector coordination in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh.

On August 25 2017, an unprecedented influx of Rohingya refugees began from Rakhine State in Myanmar into Bangladesh's district of Cox's Bazar. The scale and acuteness of this humanitarian crisis was unprecedented and unique globally, requiring strong coordination of a multitude of actors. This paper reflects on the health sector coordination from August 2017 to October 2019, focusing on selected achievements and persisting challenges of the health sector strategic advisory group (HSSAG), and the health sector working groups including epidemiology and case management, sexual and reproductive health, community health, mental health and psychosocial support, and emergency preparedness. In the early days of the response, minimum service standards for primary health care were established, a fundamental initial step which enabled the standardization of services based on critical needs. Similarly, establishing standards for community health outreach was the backbone for capitalizing on this important health workforce. Novel approaches were adopted for infectious disease responses for acute watery diarrhoea and varicella, drawing on inter-sectoral collaborations. Sexual and reproductive health services were prioritized from the initial onset of the crisis and improvements in skilled delivery attendance, gender-based violence services, abortion care and family planning were recorded. Mental health service provision was strengthened through community-based approaches although integration of mental health programmes into primary health care has been limited by availability of specialist psychiatrists. Strong, collaborative and legitimate leadership by the health sector strategic advisory group, drawing on inter-sectoral collaborations and the technical expertise of the different technical working groups, were critical in the response and proved effective, despite the remaining challenges to be addressed. Anticipated reductions in funding as the crisis moves into protracted status threatens the achievements of the health sector in provision of health services to the Rohingya refugees.