Plant phenology shifts under climate warming: a systematic review of recent scientific literature.

Climate warming-driven temporal shifts in phenology are widely recognised as the foremost footprint of global environmental change. In this regard, concerted research efforts are being made worldwide to monitor and assess the plant phenological responses to climate warming across species, ecosystems and seasons. Here, we present a global synthesis of the recent scientific literature to assess the progress made in this area of research. To achieve this, we conducted a systematic review by following PRISMA protocol, which involved rigorous screening of 9476 studies on the topic and finally selected 215 studies for data extraction. The results revealed that woody species, natural ecosystems and plant phenological responses in spring season have been predominantly studied, with the herbaceous species, agricultural ecosystems and other seasons grossly understudied. Majority of the studies reported phenological advancement (i.e., preponement) in spring, followed by also advancement in summer but delay in autumn. Methodology-wise, nearly two -third of the studies have employed direct observational approach, followed by herbarium-based and experimental approaches, with the latter covering least temporal depth. We found a steady increase in research on the topic over the last decade with a sharp increase since 2014. The global country-wide scientific output map highlights the huge geographical gaps in this area of research, particularly in the biodiversity-rich tropical regions of the developing world. Based on the findings of this global synthesis, we identify the current knowledge gaps and suggest future directions for this emerging area of research in an increasingly warming world.

Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya.

Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.

Different sets of traits determine transition of alien species along the invasion continuum.

Invasive alien species are currently considered as one of the dominant drivers of global environmental change. Till now, the majority of studies have focused on single or a few traits of alien species that facilitate their invasion. Also inclusion of all the traits which determine the transition of aliens along the different stages of invasion continuum (casual, naturalised and invasive) has remained largely overlooked. In this study, we collected a comprehensive trait dataset on 144 alien plant species of Kashmir Himalaya - a global biodiversity hotspot region. To test which traits of alien species, individually or in combination along with anthropogenic factors, determine their transition along the invasion continuum, we employed chi-square tests, boosted regression trees and phylogenetic methods. We found the perennial life span, longer residence time, greater number of introduced regions, and better seed dispersal mechanism were critical in determining the transition from casual to naturalised. The herbaceous growth form, therophyte Raunkiaer life-form, annual life span, achene fruit, longer residence time and broader introduced range were the species' traits determining transition from naturalised to invasive. Aliens introduced as ornamentals have more propensity to become naturalised; whereas aliens introduced unintentionally show overrepresentation at the invasive stage. Phylogeny alone showed mixed results indicating both clustering and dispersion; however, in combination with other traits, it plays a significant role in determining the stage of invasion. Overall, our study disentangles the individual and interactive roles of multiple traits that determine the transition of alien species' along the invasion continuum. Further, we foresee the potential applicability of our findings in designing robust invasion risk analysis protocols and stage-specific invasion management strategies in this Himalayan region, with learnings for elsewhere in the world.

Substantial shifts in flowering phenology of Sternbergia vernalis in the Himalaya: Supplementing decadal field records with historical and experimental evidences.

In an age of anthropocene, shifting plant phenology is one of the most striking biological indicators of global environmental change. Majority of the studies reporting shifts in plant phenology are available from the North America and Europe and largely scarce from the developing world, including the Himalaya; and studies integrating multiple methodological approaches to investigate the climate-driven phenological shifts are too rare. Here, we report the shifts in spring flowering phenology of model plant species, Sternbergia vernalis in response to the changing climate in Kashmir Himalaya, by integrating decadal field observational records with long-term herbarium and dated-photograph data, and supported with experimental evidences. Our results revealed a significant increasing trend of 0.038, 0.016 and 0.023 °C/year in the annual mean maximum temperature (Tmax), mean minimum temperature (Tmin) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) respectively; but an insignificant decreasing trend in annual precipitation of -1.24 mm/year over the last four decades (1980-2019) in this Himalayan region. The flowering phenology of S. vernalis has significantly advanced by 11.8 days/°C and 27.8 days/°C increase in Tmax and Tmin respectively, indicating that the climate warming has led to substantial shifts in flowering phenology of the model plant species. We also observed a strong association of seasonal Tmax (December-February) and DTR on the early onset of spring flowering, however precipitation had no significant effect on the timing of flowering. The greenhouse experiment results further supported a significant effect of temperature in triggering the phenological shifts, wherein the model plant grown under different temperature treatments flowered 9-20 days earlier compared to the control. Our study showcases the integrated use of multiple methodological approaches for unravelling the long-term phenological shifts in response to climate change, and contributes in filling the knowledge gaps in the phenological research from the developing world in general and the Himalaya in particular.