Methods for causal inference from gene perturbation experiments and validation.

Inferring causal effects from observational and interventional data is a highly desirable but ambitious goal. Many of the computational and statistical methods are plagued by fundamental identifiability issues, instability, and unreliable performance, especially for large-scale systems with many measured variables. We present software and provide some validation of a recently developed methodology based on an invariance principle, called invariant causal prediction (ICP). The ICP method quantifies confidence probabilities for inferring causal structures and thus leads to more reliable and confirmatory statements for causal relations and predictions of external intervention effects. We validate the ICP method and some other procedures using large-scale genome-wide gene perturbation experiments in Saccharomyces cerevisiae The results suggest that prediction and prioritization of future experimental interventions, such as gene deletions, can be improved by using our statistical inference techniques.

Near-optimal experimental design for model selection in systems biology.

MOTIVATION: Biological systems are understood through iterations of modeling and experimentation. Not all experiments, however, are equally valuable for predictive modeling. This study introduces an efficient method for experimental design aimed at selecting dynamical models from data. Motivated by biological applications, the method enables the design of crucial experiments: it determines a highly informative selection of measurement readouts and time points. RESULTS: We demonstrate formal guarantees of design efficiency on the basis of previous results. By reducing our task to the setting of graphical models, we prove that the method finds a near-optimal design selection with a polynomial number of evaluations. Moreover, the method exhibits the best polynomial-complexity constant approximation factor, unless P = NP. We measure the performance of the method in comparison with established alternatives, such as ensemble non-centrality, on example models of different complexity. Efficient design accelerates the loop between modeling and experimentation: it enables the inference of complex mechanisms, such as those controlling central metabolic operation. AVAILABILITY: Toolbox 'NearOED' available with source code under GPL on the Machine Learning Open Source Software Web site (mloss.org).

Repeat or not repeat?--Statistical validation of tandem repeat prediction in genomic sequences.

Tandem repeats (TRs) represent one of the most prevalent features of genomic sequences. Due to their abundance and functional significance, a plethora of detection tools has been devised over the last two decades. Despite the longstanding interest, TR detection is still not resolved. Our large-scale tests reveal that current detectors produce different, often nonoverlapping inferences, reflecting characteristics of the underlying algorithms rather than the true distribution of TRs in genomic data. Our simulations show that the power of detecting TRs depends on the degree of their divergence, and repeat characteristics such as the length of the minimal repeat unit and their number in tandem. To reconcile the diverse predictions of current algorithms, we propose and evaluate several statistical criteria for measuring the quality of predicted repeat units. In particular, we propose a model-based phylogenetic classifier, entailing a maximum-likelihood estimation of the repeat divergence. Applied in conjunction with the state of the art detectors, our statistical classification scheme for inferred repeats allows to filter out false-positive predictions. Since different algorithms appear to specialize at predicting TRs with certain properties, we advise applying multiple detectors with subsequent filtering to obtain the most complete set of genuine repeats.