Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through genetic selection in the Australian dairy industry.

This research explores possible options to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Australian dairy industry by (1) including an environmental component in the national breeding program and (2) estimating the economic and environmental impacts of implementation of the subsequent indexes. A total of 12 possible selection indexes were considered. These indexes were developed to predict changes in gross per-animal methane production (using 3 scenarios depending on availability and efficacy of a direct methane trait breeding value prediction) with 4 different carbon prices, integrating them into an augmentation of the current conventional national selection index. Although some economic response is lost with inclusion of the GHG subindexes in the Balanced Performance Index, options do exist where this loss is marginal and, even in scenarios where all selection pressure is based on the environmental weighting, economic progress is still made in all cases. When including environmental traits within an index, if a relatively low percentage of economic gain or index progression is sacrificed, then approximately 40 to 50% of the maximum possible reductions in emissions may be achieved. This concurrent selection of estimated breeding values that have a correlated favorable response in emissions in addition to direct selection on a residual methane trait allows a high level of methane reduction to be achieved with a realized cost to farmers that is far lower than the economic value placed on carbon. By implementing a GHG subindex in the national breeding program, we can achieve up to a 7.9% decrease in residual methane and 9 times the reduction in gross emissions in 10 yr, compared with the current breeding program, with little to no cost to farmers. By 2050, selection based on one of the more moderate index scenarios at a carbon price of AUD$250/t (AUD$1 = US$0.71), or opportunity cost to farmers of AUD$87.22, will reduce gross emissions by 8.23% and emissions intensity by 21.25%, therefore offering a mitigation strategy that will be effective at reducing emissions with little compromise to profit.

Estimating methane coefficients to predict the environmental impact of traits in the Australian dairy breeding program.

The dairy industry has been scrutinized for the environmental impact associated with rearing and maintaining cattle for dairy production. There are 3 possible opportunities to reduce emissions through genetic selection: (1) a direct methane trait, (2) a reduction in replacements, and (3) an increase in productivity. Our aim was to estimate the independent effects of traits in the Australian National Breeding Objective on the gross methane production and methane intensity (EI) of the Australian dairy herd of average genetic potential. Based on similar published research, the traits determined to have an effect on emissions include production, fertility, survival, health, and feed efficiency. The independent effect of each trait on the gross emissions produced per animal due to genetic improvement and change in EI due to genetic improvement (intensity value, IV) were estimated and compared. Based on an average Australian dairy herd, the gross emissions emitted per cow per year were 4,297.86 kg of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq). The annual product output, expressed in protein equivalents (protein-eq), and EI per cow were 339.39 kg of protein-eq and 12.67 kg of CO2-eq/kg of protein-eq, respectively. Of the traits included in the National Breeding Objective, genetic progress in survival and feed saved were consistently shown to result in a favorable environmental impact. Conversely, production traits had an unfavorable environmental impact when considering gross emissions, and favorable when considering EI. Fertility had minimal impact as its effects were primarily accounted for through survival. Mastitis resistance only affected IV coefficients and to a very limited extent. These coefficients may be used in selection indexes to apply emphasis on traits based on their environmental impact, as well as applied by governments and stakeholders to track trends in industry emissions. Although initiatives are underway to develop breeding values to reduce methane by combining small methane data sets internationally, alternative options to reduce emissions by utilizing selection indexes should be further explored.

Combining genetic and physiological data to identify predictors of lifetime reproductive success and the effect of selection on these predictors on underlying fertility traits.

Fertility of the dairy cow relies on complex interactions between genetics, physiology, and management. Mathematical modeling can combine a range of information sources to facilitate informed predictions of cow fertility in scenarios that are difficult to evaluate empirically. We have developed a stochastic model that incorporates genetic and physiological data from more than 70 published reports on a wide range of fertility-related traits in dairy cattle. The model simulates pedigree, random mating, genetically correlated traits (in the form of breeding values for traits such as hours in estrus, estrous cycle length, age at puberty, milk yield, and so on), and interacting environmental variables. This model was used to generate a large simulated data set (200,000 cows replicated 100 times) of herd records within a seasonal dairy production system (based on an average New Zealand system). Using these simulated data, we investigated the genetic component of lifetime reproductive success (LRS), which, in reality, would be impractical to assess empirically. We defined LRS as the total number of times, during her lifetime, a cow calved within the first 42 d of the calving season. Sire estimated breeding values for LRS and other traits were calculated using simulated daughter records. Daughter pregnancy rate in the first lactation (PD_1) was the strongest single predictor of a sire's genetic merit for LRS (R2 = 0.81). A simple predictive model containing PD_1, calving date for the second season and calving rate in the first season provided a good estimate of sire LRS (R2 = 0.97). Daughters from sires with extremely high (n = 99,995 daughters, sire LRS = +0.70) or low (n = 99,635 daughters, sire LRS = -0.73) LRS estimated breeding values were compared over a single generation. Of the 14 underlying component traits of fertility, 12 were divergent between the 2 lines. This suggests that genetic variation in female fertility has a complex and multifactorial genetic basis. When simulated phenotypes were compared, daughters of the high LRS sires (HiFERT) reached puberty 44.5 d younger and calved ∼14 d younger at each parity than daughters from low LRS sires (LoFERT). Despite having a much lower genetic potential for milk production (-400 L/lactation) than LoFERT cows, HiFERT cows produced 33% more milk over their lifetime due to additional lactations before culling. In summary, this simulation model suggests that LRS contributes substantially to cow productivity, and novel selection criteria would facilitate a more accurate prediction at a younger age.

A methodology framework for weighting genetic traits that impact greenhouse gas emission intensities in selection indexes.

A methodological framework was presented for deriving weightings to be applied in selection indexes to account for the impact genetic change in traits will have on greenhouse gas emissions intensities (EIs). Although the emission component of the breeding goal was defined as the ratio of total emissions relative to a weighted combination of farm outputs, the resulting trait-weighting factors can be applied as linear weightings in a way that augments any existing breeding objective before consideration of EI. Calculus was used to define the parameters and assumptions required to link each trait change to the expected changes in EI for an animal production system. Four key components were identified. The potential impact of the trait on relative numbers of emitting animals per breeding female first has a direct effect on emission output but, second, also has a dilution effect from the extra output associated with the extra animals. Third, each genetic trait can potentially change the amount of emissions generated per animal and, finally, the potential impact of the trait on product output is accounted for. Emission intensity weightings derived from this equation require further modifications to integrate them into an existing breeding objective. These include accounting for different timing and frequency of trait expressions as well as a weighting factor to determine the degree of selection emphasis that is diverted away from improving farm profitability in order to achieve gains in EI. The methodology was demonstrated using a simple application to dairy cattle breeding in Ireland to quantify gains in EI reduction from existing genetic trends in milk production as well as in fertility and survival traits. Most gains were identified as coming through the dilution effect of genetic increases in milk protein per cow, although gains from genetic improvements in survival by reducing emissions from herd replacements were also significant. Emission intensities in the Irish dairy industry were estimated to be reduced by ~5% in the last 10 years because of genetic trends in production, fertility and survival traits, and a further 15% reduction was projected over the next 15 years because of an observed acceleration of genetic trends.

Prediction of effects of beef selection indexes on greenhouse gas emissions.

Genetic improvement in production efficiency traits can also drive reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This study used international 'best-practice' methodology to quantify the improvements in system-wide CO2 equivalent emissions per unit of genetic progress in the Irish Maternal Replacement (MR) and Terminal (T) beef cattle indexes. Effects of each index trait on system gross emissions (GE) and system emissions intensity (EI) were modelled by estimating effects of trait changes on per-animal feed consumption and associated methane production, per-animal meat production and numbers of animals in the system. Trait responses to index selection were predicted from linear regression of individual bull estimated breeding values for each index trait on their MR or T index value, and the resulting regression coefficients were used to calculate trait-wise responses in GE and EI from index selection. Summed over all trait responses, the MR index was predicted to reduce system GE by 0.810 kg CO2e/breeding cow per year per € index and system EI by 0.009 kg CO2e/kg meat per breeding cow per year per € index. These reductions were mainly driven by improvements in cow survival, reduced mature cow maintenance feed requirements, shorter calving interval and reduced offspring mortality. The T index was predicted to reduce system EI by 0.021 kg CO2e/kg meat per breeding cow per year per € index, driven by increased meat production from improvements in carcass weight, conformation and fat. Implications for incorporating an EI reduction index to the current production indexes and long-term projections for national breeding programs are discussed.

Optimised parent selection and minimum inbreeding mating in small aquaculture breeding schemes: a simulation study.

The effectiveness of low cost breeding scheme designs for small aquaculture breeding programmes were assessed for their ability to achieve genetic gain while managing inbreeding using stochastic simulation. Individuals with trait data were simulated over 15 generations with selection on a single trait. Combinations of selection methods, mating strategies and genetic evaluation options were evaluated with and without the presence of common environmental effects. An Optimal Parent Selection (OPS) method using semi-definite programming was compared with a truncation selection (TS) method. OPS constrains the rate of inbreeding while maximising genetic gain. For either selection method, mating pairs were assigned from the selected parents by either random mating (RM) or Minimum Inbreeding Mating (MIM), which used integer programming to determine mating pairs. Offspring were simulated for each mating pair with equal numbers of offspring per pair and these offspring were the candidates for selection of parents of the next generation. Inbreeding and genetic gain for each generation were averaged over 25 replicates. Combined OPS and MIM led to a similar level of genetic gain to TS and RM, but inbreeding levels were around 75% lower than TS and RM after 15 generations. Results demonstrate that it would be possible to manage inbreeding over 15 generations within small breeding programmes comprised of 30 to 40 males and 30 to 40 females with the use of OPS and MIM. Selection on breeding values computed using Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) with all individuals genotyped to obtain pedigree information resulted in an 11% increase in genetic merit and a 90% increase in the average inbreeding coefficient of progeny after 15 generations compared with selection on raw phenotype. Genetic evaluation strategies using BLUP wherein elite individuals by raw phenotype are genotyped to obtain parentage along with a range of different samples of remaining individuals did not increase genetic progress in comparison to selection on raw phenotype. When common environmental effects on full-sib families were simulated, performance of small breeding scheme designs was little affected. This was because the majority of selection must anyway be applied within family due to inbreeding constraints.