Understanding reasons and determinants of medication non-adherence in community-dwelling adults: a cross-sectional study comparing young and older age groups.

BACKGROUND: Medication non-adherence has become a striking problem among patients with chronic diseases worldwide. However, literature on prevalence, reasons and factors associated with medication non-adherence in Singapore general population is still lacking. This study aimed to (1) estimate the prevalence of intentional and unintentional medication non-adherence in young (aged 21-64 years) and older adults (aged ≥ 65 years), respectively; (2) identify and compare the main reasons for non-adherence; and (3) examine the association between potential factors and non-adherence in each group. METHODS: This study sampled 1,528 community-dwelling adults on medications (young adults:766, older adults: 762) from a cross-sectional population health survey conducted in the northern and central regions of Singapore in 2018/2019. Self-reported medication non-adherence and its reasons were collected using a modified questionnaire and compared between the two groups. Multiple logistic regressions were conducted to examine the association between potential factors (e.g., social-demographic factors, smoking and drinking status, presence of diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidaemia, and presence of depressive symptoms) and medication non-adherence in each group. RESULTS: The prevalence of non-adherence was 38.4% and 22.3% in young and older adults, respectively, with young adults reporting higher unintentional and intentional non-adherence rates than older adults. "Afraid of developing drug dependence" was the most common reason in both groups (young:74.8% vs. old:73.5%). Compared to young adults (3.7%), "Not understanding medication labels" was more prevalent in older adults (8.8%). Presence of depressive symptoms was associated with non-adherence in both young (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 3.00 [1.79, 5.05]) and older adults (4.16 [2.31, 7.51]). Being employed (2.92 [1.76, 4.84]) and taking ≥ 2 medications (1.42 [1.04, 1.95]) had positive association while personal income of SGD1,000-4,000 (0.53 [0.36, 0.77]) and current smoking (0.61 [0.39, 0.95]) had inverse association with non-compliance in young adults. Diagnosis of diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidaemia (2.63 [1.25, 5.53]) was associated with higher odds of non-compliance in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Young adults had higher prevalence of medication non-adherence than older adults. The main reasons for non-adherence reported by young and older adults were generally comparable. Presence of depressive symptoms was a risk factor of medication non-adherence in both groups.

Medical cost of advanced illnesses in the last-year of life-retrospective database study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to quantify medical care utilisation, and to describe the cost trajectories of individuals with advanced illnesses in the last-year of life, differentiated by advanced cancer, end-stage organ failure and progressive neurological disorders. METHODS: This retrospective database study included decedents who had previous inpatient or outpatient encounters at a public hospital in Singapore. Patients with advanced diseases were identified based on diagnostic codes and clinical criteria. Using a look-back approach, the amount of healthcare services utilised and the corresponding mean monthly and annual costs to the healthcare system in the last 12-months of life were quantified. RESULTS: The last 12-months of life among 6,598 decedents was associated with £20,524 (95% confidence interval: £20,013-£21,036) in medical costs, of which 80% was accounted for by inpatient admissions. Costs increased sharply in the last 2-months of life, with a large proportion of monthly costs accounted for by inpatient admissions which rose rapidly from 61% at 12-months prior to death to 94% in the last-month of life. Compared to patients with cancer, individuals diagnosed with non-cancer advanced illnesses accumulated 1.6 times more healthcare costs in the last-year of life with significant differences across patients with end-stage organ failure and progressive neurological disorders. CONCLUSION: Healthcare costs varied across disease conditions at the end-of-life. With advance care planning and close collaboration between the inpatient clinical team and the community providers, it may be possible to re-direct some of the hospitalisation costs to community-based palliative care services.

Associations of social isolation, social participation, and loneliness with frailty in older adults in Singapore: a panel data analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is a shortage of research evidence about how social isolation, social participation, and loneliness were longitudinally associated with frailty. This study was to 1) examine the associations of social isolation, social participation, and loneliness with level of frailty among community-dwelling older adults using panel data, and 2) explore the moderating effect of gender on the association of social isolation, social participation and loneliness with frailty. METHODS: The study included 606 participants aged 60 years and above from the longitudinal Population Health Index Survey conducted in Singapore. At each timepoint, level of frailty was determined using the Clinical Frailty Scale. Social isolation was assessed by the Lubben Social Network Scale-6, and loneliness was assessed using the three-item UCLA Loneliness Scale. Fixed-effects ordinal logistic regressions were conducted with level of frailty as the dependent variable and social isolation and loneliness as the independent variables, adjusting for time-varying socio-demographic, lifestyle, and health-related factors. RESULTS: Increase in social participation was associated with lower level of frailty (odds ratio: 0.96, 95% confidence interval: 0.93-0.99) and feeling lonely was associated with higher level of frailty (odds ratio: 2.90, 95% confidence interval: 1.44-5.84). Social isolation was not associated with frailty. Gender did not have moderating effect on these associations. CONCLUSIONS: This study observed that social isolation and loneliness had differential longitudinal association with level of frailty among community-dwelling older adults and suggested that loneliness and frailty should be measured and addressed concurrently among community-dwelling older adults.

Temporal changes of haematological and radiological findings of the COVID-19 infection-a review of literature.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a systemic viral infection which mainly targets the human respiratory system with many secondary clinical manifestations especially affecting the hematopoietic system and haemostasis. Few studies have highlighted the prognostic value of blood findings such as lymphopenia, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, platelet/lymphocyte ratio, LDH, CRP, cardiac troponin, low-density lipoproteins and chest radiographic abnormality. A study of progressions of blood and radiological results may help to identify patients at high risk of severe outcomes. This systematic review aimed to assess the temporal progression of blood and radiology findings of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Comprehensive systematic literature search was conducted on Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases to identify articles published for peripheral blood investigation and radiological results of COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: A total of 27 studies were included in this review. The common laboratory features reported include lymphopenia, elevated levels of C-reactive proteins and lactate dehydrogenase. For radiological signs, ground-glass opacifications, consolidations, and crazy paving patterns were frequently reported. There is a correlation between lymphocyte count, neutrophil count and biomarkers such as C-reactive proteins and lactate dehydrogenase; at a later phase of the disease (more than 7 days since onset of symptoms), lymphopenia worsens while neutrophil count, C-reactive protein levels and lactate dehydrogenase levels increase. Frequencies of ground-glass opacifications and ground-glass opacifications with consolidations decrease at a later phase of the disease while that of consolidation and crazy paving pattern rises as the disease progresses. More extensive lung involvement was also seen more frequently in the later phases. CONCLUSION: The correlation between temporal progression and the reported blood and radiological results may be helpful to monitor and evaluate disease progression and severity.

Psychometric evaluation of the 8-item Altarum Consumer Engagement (ACE) Measure™ in community-dwelling adults in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: A valid and reliable measure is essential to assess patient engagement and its impact on health outcomes. This study aimed to examine the psychometric properties of the 8-item Altarum Consumer Engagement Measure™ (ACE Measure) among English-speaking community-dwelling adults in Singapore. METHODS: This cross-sectional study involved 400 randomly selected community-dwelling adults (mean age: 49.7 years, 50.0% were female, 72.3% were Chinese) who completed the English version of the 8-item ACE Measure independently. The item-level statistics were described. The internal consistency of the measure was measured by Cronbach alpha and item-rest correlations. Validity of the tool was assessed by 1) factorial validity using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), 2) hypothesis-testing validity by correlating ACE subscales (Commitment and Navigation) with health-related outcomes, and 3) criterion validity against the Patient Activation Measure and Health Confidence Measure. RESULTS: There was no floor or ceiling effect for Commitment and Navigation subscales, and the Cronbach alpha for each subscale was 0.76 and 0.54, respectively. The two-factor structure was confirmed by CFA. In general, Commitment and Navigation subscales were positively correlated with frequency of activity participation (rho = 0.30 - 0.33) and EQ-5D visual analog scale (rho = 0.15 - 0.30). Individuals who perceived better health than peers had higher subscale scores (p < 0.01). Each subscale score had moderate and positive correlations with activation score (rho = 0.48 - 0.55) and health confidence score (rho = 0.35 - 0.47). CONCLUSIONS: The two-subscale ACE Measure demonstrated good construct validity in English-speaking Singapore community-dwelling adults. Evidence in internal consistency was mixed, indicating further investigation.

Frailty and healthcare utilisation across care settings among community-dwelling older adults in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is frequently found to be associated with increased healthcare utilisation in western countries, but little is known in Asian population. This study was conducted to investigate the association between frailty and healthcare utilisation in different care settings among community-dwelling older adults in Singapore. METHODS: Data from a population health survey among community-dwelling adults were linked with an administrative database to retrieve data of healthcare utilisation (including government primary care clinic visits, specialised outpatient clinic visits, emergency department visits, day surgery and hospitalisations) occurred during a six-month look-back period and six-month post-baseline respectively. Baseline frailty status was measured using the five-item FRAIL scale, which was categorised into three groups: robust (0), pre-frail (1-2), and frail (3-5). Negative binomial regression was applied to examine the association between frailty with respective healthcare utilisation (dependent variables), controlling for other confounding variables. RESULTS: In our sample of 701 older adults, 64.8% were of robust health, 27.7% were pre-frail, and 7.6% were frail. Compared to the robust group, frail individuals had a higher rate of specialised outpatient clinic visits (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 2.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-6.5), emergency department visits (IRR: 3.1, 95%CI: 1.1-8.1), day surgery attendances (IRR: 6.4, 95%CI: 1.3-30.9), and hospitalisations (IRR: 6.7, 95%CI: 2.1-21.1) in the six-month period prior to the baseline and in subsequent 6 months (IRR: 3.3, 95%CI: 1.6-7.1; 6.4, 2.4-17.2; 5.8, 1.3-25.8; 13.1, 4.9-35.0; respectively), controlling for covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty was positively associated with the number of specialised outpatient clinic visits, emergency department visits, day surgeries and hospitalisations occurred during 6 months prior to and after the baseline. As frailty is a potentially reversible health state with early screening and intervention, providing preventive activities that delay the onset or progression of frailty should have potential effect on delaying secondary and tertiary care utilisation.

Prevalence of frailty and its association with depressive symptoms among older adults in Singapore.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of the study were to (1) estimate the prevalence of frailty among community-dwelling older adults , and (2) investigate the independent association between level of frailty and depressive symptoms. METHODS: A total of 721 older adults (aged 60 and above ) were included in this study. Severity of frailty was determined using the Clinical Frailty Scale and further classified into four levels (CFS1-3: F1, CFS4: F2, CFS5: F3, and CFS6-7: F4). The depressive symptoms were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. The prevalence of frailty by four levels was described and the association between level of frailty and depressive symptoms was assessed using multiple linear regression. RESULTS: The prevalence of frailty among the study population was 24.5% (F2: 14.4%, F3:3.7%, F4: 6.4%). There was no significant difference in level of frailty between male and female. With the increase in severity level of frailty, older adults reported substantially higher depressive symptom scores (p < .001), even after controlling for socio-demographics, number of non-mental chronic conditions, and number of medications taken regularly. CONCLUSIONS: Level of frailty is independently associated with depressive symptoms among community-dwelling older population, which is not fully explained by symptom overlap, socio-demographic, and comorbidity covariates.

Effects of chronic diseases on health-related quality of life and self-rated health among three adult age groups.

Little is known about whether there is any difference in associations of chronic diseases with health-related quality of life and self-rated health across age groups. The purpose of the present study was to examine the associations of one specific and multiple chronic diseases with health-related quality of life and self-rated health (measured using the 5-level EQ-5D version) in three age groups: young (21-44 years), middle-aged (45-64 years), and older adults (≥65 years). Secondary data analysis of 1932 participants in the Population Health Index Survey was performed. Linear regression results showed that different chronic diseases had a characteristic effect on health-related quality of life and self-rated health among different age groups. The presence of a single chronic disease was associated with lower health-related quality of life and self-rated health in young adults. Multi-morbidity was consistently associated with decreased health-related quality of life and self-rated health in all age groups. Our findings suggest that although young adults have a lower prevalence of chronic diseases, their impacts on health-related quality of life and self-rated health can be as significant as that in middle-aged and older adults.

Lifetime trajectory simulation of chronic disease progression and comorbidity development.

INTRODUCTION: Comorbidity is common in elderly patients and it imposes heavy burden on both individual and the whole healthcare system. This study aims to gain insights of comorbidity development by simulating the lifetime trajectory of disease progression from single chronic disease to comorbidity. METHODS: Eight health states spanning from no chronic condition to comorbidity are considered in this study. Disease progression network is constructed based on the seven-year retrospective data of around 700,000 residents living in Singapore central region. Microsimulation is applied to simulate the process of aging and disease progression of a synthetic new-born cohort for the entire lifetime. RESULTS: Among the 40 unique trajectories observed from the simulation, the top 10 trajectories covers 60% of the cohort. Timespan of most trajectories from birth to death is 80 years. Most people progress to at risk at late 30 s, develop the first chronic condition at 50 s or 60 s, and then progress to complications at 70 s. It is also observed that the earlier one person develops chronic conditions, the more life-year-lost is incurred. DISCUSSION: The lifetime disease progression trajectory constructed for each person in the cohort describes how a person starts healthy, becomes at risk, then progresses to one or more chronic conditions, and finally deteriorates to various complications over the years. This study may help us have a better understanding of chronic disease progression and comorbidity development, hence add values to chronic disease prevention and management.

Singapore's regional health systems-a data-driven perspective on frequent admitters and cross utilization of healthcare services in three systems.

INTRODUCTION: With population health management being a priority in the Singapore, this paper aims to provide a data-driven perspective of the population health management initiatives to aid program planning and serves as a baseline for evaluation of future implemented programs. METHODS: A database with information on patient demographics, health services utilization, cost, diagnoses and chronic disease information from 2008 to 2013 for three regional health systems in Singapore was used for analysis. Patients with three or more inpatient admissions were considered as "Frequent Admitters." Health service utilization was quantified, and cross utilization of services was studied. One-year readmission rate for inpatients was studied, and a predictive model for readmission or death was developed. RESULTS: There were a total of 2.8 M patients in the database. Frequent admitters accounted for 0.9% of all patients with an average cost per patient of S$29 547. Of these, 89% had chronic diseases. Cross utilization of health services showed that 8.2% of the patients utilized services from more than one hospital with 19.6% utilizing hospital and polyclinic services in 2013. The highest risk of readmission or death was for those patients who had five or more inpatient episodes in each of the preceding 2 years. CONCLUSION: By understanding the profile of the patients and their utilization patterns in the three regional health systems, our study will help clinicians and decision makers design appropriate integrated care programs for patients with the aim of covering the healthcare needs for the enitre population across the healthcare spectrum in Singapore. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Integrating palliative care across settings: A retrospective cohort study of a hospice home care programme for cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Terminally ill patients at the end-of-life do transit between care settings due to their complex care needs. Problems of care fragmentation could result in poor quality of care. AIM: We aimed to evaluate the impact of an integrated hospice home care programme on acute care service usage and on the share of home deaths. SETTINGS/PARTICIPANTS: The retrospective study cohort comprised patients who were diagnosed with cancer, had an expected prognosis of 1 year or less, and were referred to a home hospice. The intervention group comprised deceased patients enrolled in the integrated hospice home care programme between September 2012 and June 2014. The historical comparison group comprised deceased patients who were referred to other home hospices between January 2007 and January 2011. RESULTS: There were 321 cases and 593 comparator subjects. Relative to the comparator group, the share of hospital deaths was significantly lower for programme participants (12.1% versus 42.7%). After adjusting for differences at baseline, the intervention group had statistically significantly lower emergency department visits at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.47), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.69) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.77) prior to death. Similar results held for the number of hospitalisations at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.58), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.82) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.88) prior to death. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrated that by integrating services between acute care and home hospice care, a reduction in acute care service usage could occur.

Analysis of patient waiting time governed by a generic maximum waiting time policy with general phase-type approximations.

Waiting time can affect patient satisfaction and quality of care in the emergency department (ED). Studies have shown that waiting time accounted for more than 50 % of total patient turnaround time at ED. The objective of this study is to examine a maximum waiting time policy such that patients who would experience a long wait are assumed to be processed in a threshold period. In particular, we are interested to investigate the associated factors of the policy such as new mean waiting time and the threshold period and their interaction. Under the policy, original patient waiting distribution is transformed to a piecewise distribution where one piecewise discontinuous and one piecewise continuous distributions are further investigated. Under the phase-type (PH) distribution assumption on the original waiting time, we establish closed-form expressions concerning new mean waiting time and time points of the threshold period. By fitting PH distributions to patient waiting data of an emergency department in Singapore, the factors are then estimated under various scenarios using the obtained analytical expressions. Specifically, for a given target mean waiting time, the threshold period needed in the policy is estimated. New mean waiting time is assessed with different choices of the threshold period. Analytical expressions in terms of the variance of the transformed waiting time and the threshold period are also presented.

Health status profiles in community-dwelling elderly using self-reported health indicators: a latent class analysis.

PURPOSE: Latent class analysis (LCA), a statistical method for identifying latent classes within a population using multiple indicators, has been used to study the heterogeneity of health among the elderly. We aim to identify health status profiles of older adults using LCA and examine the socio-demographic characteristics associated with each profile. METHODS: A community health survey of residents ≥60 years was conducted in Marine Parade, Singapore. We performed LCA on seven health indicators (number of chronic conditions, activities of daily living (ADL) dependency, pain, depression, cognition, social isolation, and frequency of socialising) to identify distinct classes of health status profiles. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to examine the socio-demographic characteristics associated with each profile. RESULTS: Of the 2,444 elderly interviewed, we identified two health status profiles: "Health at risk" (n = 465, 19.0 %), and "Relatively healthy" (n = 1,979, 81.0 %). The "Health at risk" profile was characterised by high probabilities of 3+ chronic conditions (λ = 0.63), at least one basic/instrumental ADL dependency (λ = 0.56), moderate/extreme pain (λ = 0.55), cognitive impairment (λ = 0.29), depressive symptoms (λ = 0.29), social isolation (λ = 0.27), and infrequent socialisation (λ = 0.61). Individuals who were older (65-74, 75-84, and 85+ years), females, of non-Chinese ethnicity (Indian, Malay, and Others), had primary and lower education, and were unemployed/not employed were more likely to be "Health at risk". CONCLUSION: Using LCA, we identified two distinct health status profiles which accounted for the heterogeneity of the elderly population. Selected socio-demographic characteristics were associated with different profiles and provide implications for the structuring of future public health interventions targeting the older population.

Economic impact analysis of an end-of-life programme for nursing home residents.

BACKGROUND: Due to limited end-of-life discussions and the absence of palliative care, hospitalisations are frequent at the end of life among nursing home residents in Singapore, resulting in high health-care costs. AIM: Our objective was to evaluate the economic impact of Project Care at the End-of-Life for Residents in homes for the Elderly (CARE) programme on nursing home residents compared to usual end-of-life care. DESIGN AND SETTINGS/PARTICIPANTS: Project CARE was introduced in seven nursing homes to provide advance care planning and palliative care for residents identified to be at risk of dying within 1 year. The cases consisted of nursing home residents enrolled in the Project CARE programme for at least 3 months. A historical group of nursing home residents not in any end-of-life care programme was chosen as the matched controls. Cost differences between the two groups were analysed over the last 3 months and final month of life. RESULTS: The final sample comprised 48 Project CARE cases and 197 controls. Compared to the controls, the cases were older with more comorbidities and higher nursing needs. After risk adjustment, Project CARE cases demonstrated per-resident cost savings of SGD$7129 (confidence interval: SGD$4544-SGD$9714) over the last 3 months of life and SGD$3703 (confidence interval: SGD$1848-SGD$5557) over the last month of life (US$1 = SGD$1.3). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated substantial savings associated with an end-of-life programme. With a significant proportion of the population in Singapore requiring nursing home care in the near future, these results could assist policymakers and health-care providers in decision-making on allocation of health-care resources.

5-year survival and rehospitalization due to stroke recurrence among patients with hemorrhagic or ischemic strokes in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the 4th leading cause of death and 1st leading cause of disability in Singapore. However the information on long-term post stroke outcomes for Singaporean patients was limited. This study aimed to investigate the post stroke outcomes of 5-year survival and rehospitalization due to stroke recurrence for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients in Singapore. The outcomes were stratified by age, ethnic group, gender and stroke types. The causes of death and stroke recurrence were also explored in the study. METHODS: A multi-site retrospective cohort study. Patients admitted for stroke at any of the three hospitals in the National Healthcare Group of Singapore were included in the study. All study patients were followed up to 5 years. Kaplan-Meier was applied to study the time to first event, death or rehospitalization due to stroke recurrence. Cox proportional hazard model was applied to study the time to death with adjustment for stroke type, age, sex, ethnic group, and admission year. Cumulative incidence model with competing risk was applied for comparing the risks of rehospitalization due to stroke recurrence with death as the competing risk. RESULTS: Totally 12,559 stroke patients were included in the study. Among them, 59.3% survived for 5 years; 18.4% were rehospitalized due to stroke recurrence in 5 years. The risk of stroke recurrence and mortality increased with age in all stroke types. Gender, ethnic group and admitting year were not significantly associated with the risk of mortality or stroke recurrence in hemorrhagic stroke. Male or Malay patient had higher risk of stroke recurrence and mortality in ischemic stroke. Hemorrhagic stroke had higher early mortality while ischemic stroke had higher recurrence and late mortality. The top cause of death among died stroke patients was cerebrovascular diseases, followed by pneumonia and ischemic heart diseases. The recurrent stroke was most likely to be the same type as the initial stroke among rehospitalized stroke patients. CONCLUSIONS: Five year post-stroke survival and rehospitalization due to stroke recurrence as well as their associations with patient demographics were studied for different stroke types in Singapore. Specific preventive strategies are needed to target the high risk groups to improve their long-term outcomes after acute stroke.

Risk factors for incident falls in Singaporean community-dwelling adult men and women: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Our study aimed to identify the risk factors of incident falls between men and women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: The study recruited participants from the Central region of Singapore. Baseline and follow-up data were collected via a face-to-face survey. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling adults aged 40 years and above from the Population Health Index Survey. OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident falls were defined as the experience of a fall between the baseline and 1-year follow-up but having no falls 1 year prior to baseline. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to determine the association of sociodemographic factors, medical history and lifestyle with incident falls. Sex subgroup analyses were conducted to examine sex-specific risk factors for incident falls. RESULTS: 1056 participants were included in the analysis. At 1-year follow-up, 9.6% of the participants experienced an incident fall. Incidence of falls in women was 9.8% compared with 7.4% in men. In the multivariable analysis for the overall sample, older age (OR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.10 to 2.86), being pre-frail (OR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.12 to 4.00) and having depression or feeling depressed/anxious (OR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.10 to 4.99) were associated with higher odds for incident falls. In subgroup analyses, older age was a risk factor for incident falls in men (OR: 2.68, 95% CI: 1.21 to 5.90) and pre-frail was a risk factor for incident falls in women (OR: 2.82, 95% CI: 1.28 to 6.20). There was no significant interaction effect between sex and age group (p value=0.341) and sex and frailty status (p value=0.181). CONCLUSION: Older age, presence of pre-frailty and having depression or feeling depressed/anxious were associated with higher odds of incident falls. In our subgroup analyses, older age was a risk factor for incident falls in men and being pre-frail was a risk factor for incident falls in women. These findings provide useful information for community health services in designing falls prevention programmes for community-dwelling adults in a multi-ethnic Asian population.

Real-time prediction of waiting time in the emergency department, using quantile regression.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Emergency department (ED) waiting times can affect patient satisfaction and quality of care. We develop and validate a model that predicts an individual patient's median and 95th percentile waiting time by using only data available at triage. METHODS: From the existing ED information system, we extracted date and time of triage completion, start time of emergency physician consultation, and patient acuity category (1=most urgent, 3=least urgent). Quantile regression was applied for model development and parameter estimation by using visits from January 2011. We assessed absolute prediction error, defined as the median difference between the 50th percentile (median) predicted waiting time and actual waiting time, and the proportion of underestimated prediction, defined as the percentage of patients whose actual waiting time exceeded the 95th percentile prediction. The model was validated retrospectively with June 2010 data and prospectively with data from April to June 2011 after integration with the existing ED information system. RESULTS: The derivation set included 13,200 ED visits; 903 (6.8%) were patient acuity category 1, 5,530 (41.9%) were patient acuity category 2, and 6,767 (51.3%) were patient acuity category 3. The median and 95th percentile waiting times were 17 and 57 minutes for patient acuity category 2 and 21 and 89 minutes for patient acuity category 3, respectively. The final model used predictors of patient acuity category, patient queue sizes, and flow rates only. In the retrospective validation, 5.9% of patient acuity category 2 and 5.4% of category 3 waiting times were underestimated. The median absolute prediction error was 11.9 minutes (interquantile range [IQR] 5.9 to 22.1 minutes) for patient acuity category 2 and 15.7 minutes (IQR 7.5 to 30.1 minutes) for category 3. In prospective validation, 4.3% of patient acuity category 2 and 5.8% of category 3 waiting times were underestimated. The median absolute prediction error was 9.2 minutes (IQR 4.4 to 15.1 minutes) for patient acuity category 2 and 12.9 minutes (IQR 6.5 to 22.5 minutes) for category 3. CONCLUSION: Using only a few data elements available at triage, the model predicts individual patients' waiting time with good accuracy.

Self-reported chronic diseases and health status and health service utilization--results from a community health survey in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: To report the extent of self-reported chronic diseases, self-rated health status (SRH) and healthcare utilization among residents in 1-2 room Housing Development Board (HDB) apartments in Toa Payoh. MATERIALS & METHODS: The study population included a convenience sample of residents from 931 housing development board (HDB) units residing in 1-2 room apartments in Toa Payoh. Convenience sampling was used since logistics precluded random selection. Trained research assistants carried out the survey. Results were presented as descriptive summary. RESULTS: Respondents were significantly older, 48.3% reported having one or more chronic diseases, 32% have hypertension, 16.8% have diabetes, and 7.6% have asthma. Median SRH score was seven. Hospital inpatient utilization rate were highest among Indian ethnic group, unemployed, no income, high self-rated health (SRH) score, and respondents with COPD, renal failure and heart disease. Outpatient utilization rate was significantly higher among older respondents, females, and those with high SRH scores (7-10). CONCLUSIONS: The findings confirming that residents living in 1-2 room HDB apartments are significantly older, with higher rates of chronic diseases, health care utilization than national average, will aid in healthcare planning to address their needs.

Predicting mortality among older adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia: an enhanced confusion, urea, respiratory rate and blood pressure score compared with pneumonia severity index.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) predicts mortality better than Confusion, Urea >7 mmol/L, Respiratory rate >30/min, low Blood pressure: diastolic blood pressure <60 mm Hg or systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg, and age >65 years (CURB-65) for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) but is more cumbersome. The objective was to determine whether CURB enhanced with a small number of additional variables can predict mortality with at least the same accuracy as PSI. METHODS: Retrospective review of medical records and administrative data of adults aged 55 years or older hospitalized for CAP over 1 year from three hospitals. RESULTS: For 1052 hospital admissions of unique patients, 30-day mortality was 17.2%. PSI class and CURB-65 predicted 30-day mortality with area under curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-0.80) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66-0.74) respectively. When age and three co-morbid conditions (metastatic cancer, solid tumours without metastases and stroke) were added to CURB, the AUC improved to 0.80 (95% CI: 0.77-0.83). Bootstrap validation obtained an AUC estimate of 0.78, indicating negligible overfitting of the model. Based on this model, a clinical score (enhanced CURB score) was developed that had possible values from 5 to 25. Its AUC was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83) and remained similar to that of PSI class. CONCLUSIONS: An enhanced CURB score predicted 30-day mortality with at least the same accuracy as PSI class did among older adults hospitalized for CAP. External validation of this score in other populations is the next step to determine whether it can be used more widely.

Economic burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the direct medical costs of COPD in two public health clusters in Singapore from 2005 to 2009. METHODS: Patients aged 40 years and over, who had been diagnosed with COPD, were identified in a Chronic Disease Management Data-mart. Annual utilization of health services in inpatient, specialist outpatient, emergency department and primary care settings was extracted from the Chronic Disease Management Data-mart. Trends in attributable costs, proportions of costs and health-care utilization were analyzed across each level of care. A weighted attribution approach was used to allocate costs to each health-care utilization episode, depending on the relevance of co-morbidities. RESULTS: The mean total cost was approximately $9.9 million per year. Inpatient admissions were the major cost driver, contributing an average of $7.2 million per year. The proportion of hospitalization costs declined from 75% in 2005 to 68% in 2009. Based on the 5-year average, attendances at primary care clinics, emergency department and specialist clinics contributed 3%, 5% and 17%, respectively, of overall COPD costs. On average, 42% of the total cost burden was incurred for the medical management of COPD. The share of cost incurred for the treatment of conditions related and unrelated to COPD were 29% and 26%, respectively, of the total average costs. CONCLUSIONS: COPD is likely to represent a significant burden to the public health system in most countries. The findings are particularly relevant to understanding the allocation of health-care resources and informing appropriate cost containment strategies.