Distributed non-disclosive validation of predictive models by a modified ROC-GLM.

BACKGROUND: Distributed statistical analyses provide a promising approach for privacy protection when analyzing data distributed over several databases. Instead of directly operating on data, the analyst receives anonymous summary statistics, which are combined into an aggregated result. Further, in discrimination model (prognosis, diagnosis, etc.) development, it is key to evaluate a trained model w.r.t. to its prognostic or predictive performance on new independent data. For binary classification, quantifying discrimination uses the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and its area under the curve (AUC) as aggregation measure. We are interested to calculate both as well as basic indicators of calibration-in-the-large for a binary classification task using a distributed and privacy-preserving approach. METHODS: We employ DataSHIELD as the technology to carry out distributed analyses, and we use a newly developed algorithm to validate the prediction score by conducting distributed and privacy-preserving ROC analysis. Calibration curves are constructed from mean values over sites. The determination of ROC and its AUC is based on a generalized linear model (GLM) approximation of the true ROC curve, the ROC-GLM, as well as on ideas of differential privacy (DP). DP adds noise (quantified by the ℓ 2 sensitivity Δ 2 ( f ^ ) ) to the data and enables a global handling of placement numbers. The impact of DP parameters was studied by simulations. RESULTS: In our simulation scenario, the true and distributed AUC measures differ by Δ AUC < 0.01 depending heavily on the choice of the differential privacy parameters. It is recommended to check the accuracy of the distributed AUC estimator in specific simulation scenarios along with a reasonable choice of DP parameters. Here, the accuracy of the distributed AUC estimator may be impaired by too much artificial noise added from DP. CONCLUSIONS: The applicability of our algorithms depends on the ℓ 2 sensitivity Δ 2 ( f ^ ) of the underlying statistical/predictive model. The simulations carried out have shown that the approximation error is acceptable for the majority of simulated cases. For models with high Δ 2 ( f ^ ) , the privacy parameters must be set accordingly higher to ensure sufficient privacy protection, which affects the approximation error. This work shows that complex measures, as the AUC, are applicable for validation in distributed setups while preserving an individual's privacy.

[Results of PCR Pool Testing In Primary and Special Needs Schools In Bavaria For The School Year 2021/2022: Sentinel Surveillance In Face-To-Face Teaching During The Sars-CoV-2 Pandemic]. / Ergebnisse von PCR-Pooltestungen an bayerischen Grund- und Förderschulen im Schuljahr 2021/2022 zur Surveillance im Präsenzunterricht während der SARS-CoV-2-Pandemie.

In the school years 2019/20 and 2020/21, children were physically, psychologically, and socially stressed by school closures caused by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. To ensure attendance with optimal infection protection, PCR pool testing was conducted during the 2021/22 school year at Bavarian elementary schools and schools for pupils with special needs for timely detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study analyzes the results of PCR pool testing over time stratified by region, school type, and age of children. The data were obtained from classes in elementary and special needs schools, involving pupils aged 6 to 11 years, who participated in the Bavaria-wide PCR pool testing from 09/20/21 to 04/08/22. Samples were collected twice weekly, consisting of PCR pool samples and individual PCR samples, which were only evaluated in case of a positive pool test. A class was considered positive if at least one individual sample from that class was positive within a calendar week (CW). A school (class) was considered to be infection-prone if three or more classes in that school (students in that class) were positive within a CW. The data included 2,430 elementary schools (339 special needs schools) with 23,021 (2,711) classes and 456,478 (29,200) children. A total of 1,157,617 pools (of which 3.37% were positive) and 724,438 individual samples (6.76% positive) were analyzed. Larger schools exhibited higher PR compared to smaller schools. From January 2022, the Omicron variant led to a massive increase in PR across Bavaria. The incidence rates per 100,000 person-weeks within the individual school samples were significantly lower than the concurrently reported age-specific and general infection incidences in the overall Bavarian population. PCR pool testing revealed relatively few positive pools, with an average of four children per one hundred pools testing positive. Schools and classes were rarely considered infection-prone, even during periods of high incidences outside of schools. The combination of PCR pool testing and hygiene measures allowed for a largely safe in-person education for pupils in primary and special needs schools in the school year 2021/22.

PREDICT-juvenile-stroke: PRospective evaluation of a prediction score determining individual clinical outcome three months after ischemic stroke in young adults - a study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Although of high individual and socioeconomic relevance, a reliable prediction model for the prognosis of juvenile stroke (18-55 years) is missing. Therefore, the study presented in this protocol aims to prospectively validate the discriminatory power of a prediction score for the 3 months functional outcome after juvenile stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) that has been derived from an independent retrospective study using standard clinical workup data. METHODS: PREDICT-Juvenile-Stroke is a multi-centre (n = 4) prospective observational cohort study collecting standard clinical workup data and data on treatment success at 3 months after acute ischemic stroke or TIA that aims to validate a new prediction score for juvenile stroke. The prediction score has been developed upon single center retrospective analysis of 340 juvenile stroke patients. The score determines the patient's individual probability for treatment success defined by a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0-2 or return to pre-stroke baseline mRS 3 months after stroke or TIA. This probability will be compared to the observed clinical outcome at 3 months using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The primary endpoint is to validate the clinical potential of the new prediction score for a favourable outcome 3 months after juvenile stroke or TIA. Secondary outcomes are to determine to what extent predictive factors in juvenile stroke or TIA patients differ from those in older patients and to determine the predictive accuracy of the juvenile stroke prediction score on other clinical and paraclinical endpoints. A minimum of 430 juvenile patients (< 55 years) with acute ischemic stroke or TIA, and the same number of older patients will be enrolled for the prospective validation study. DISCUSSION: The juvenile stroke prediction score has the potential to enable personalisation of counselling, provision of appropriate information regarding the prognosis and identification of patients who benefit from specific treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study has been registered at https://drks.de on March 31, 2022 ( DRKS00024407 ).

[Diagnostic of Parent-Child-Interaction andTheir Relationship: Results from a Multiprofessional and Task Specific Survey]. / Diagnostik der Eltern-Kind-Interaktion und -Beziehung: Ergebnisse einer multiprofessionellen und tätigkeitsspezifischen Umfrage und Vorschläge für eine standardisierte Dokumentation.

The assessment of parent-child interactions and relationships (PCIR) plays an important role for many diagnostic purposes in child and adolescent psychology and psychological health care. While child and adolescent psychology has been intensively researched, the field still faces a lack of knowledge about health care practice. To offer knowledge about practical routine needs and derived needs in these domains, we aimed to obtain information from professionals who routinely assess PCIR.We aimed to gain a basic description of task-specific diagnostic fields, professional staff and their education, their clients, key diagnostic questions, observational settings, guidelines used in assessing PCIR and professionals' personal understanding of PCIR. To gain information on how professionals assess PCIR, we used an online survey containing multiple choice questions and rating scales.We describe differences between task-specific diagnostic fields of inpatient and outpatient settings, consulting and officially appointed surveyors for court decision. Only responses from professionals performing PCIR are analyzed (N = 166). PCIR is regularly used for more than a half of children between 0-12 years of age and for more than a third of adolescents for answering a broad spectrum of diagnostical questions. We describe differences for nearly all facets of PCIR except for the content related domain. Based on these differences between task-specific fields, we give suggestions for standardized documentation of PCIR and how findings from this study can be used for scientific development.

Landmark models to define the age-adjusted risk of developing stage 1 type 1 diabetes across childhood and adolescence.

BACKGROUND: Autoimmune diseases are often preceded by an asymptomatic autoantibody-positive phase. In type 1 diabetes, the detection of autoantibodies to pancreatic islet antigens in genetically at-risk children is prognostic for future clinical diabetes. Testing for islet autoantibodies is, therefore, performed in a range of clinical studies. Accurate risk estimates that consider the a priori genetic risk and other risk modifiers are an important component of screening. The age of an individual is an under-appreciated risk modifier. The aim of this study was to provide age-adjusted risk estimates for the development of autoantibodies across childhood in genetically at-risk children. METHODS: The prospective BABYDIAB and BABYDIET studies included 2441 children from birth who had a first-degree relative with type 1 diabetes. Children were born between 1989 and 2006 and were regularly followed from birth for the development of islet autoantibodies and diabetes. A landmark analysis was performed to estimate the risk of islet autoantibodies at birth and at the age 3.5, 6.5 and 12.5 years. Exponential decay curves were fitted for the risk by the age of 20 years. RESULTS: The risk of islet autoantibodies by the age of 20 years was 8%, 4.6%, 2.6% and 0.9%, at the landmark ages of birth, 3.5, 6.5 and 12.5 years, respectively. The short-term risks (within 6 years of follow-up) at these landmark ages were 5.3%, 2.9%, 1.8% and 1%, respectively. The decline in autoantibody risk with age was modelled using a one-phase exponential decay curve (r = 0.99) with a risk half-life of 3.7 years. This risk decay model was remarkably consistent when the outcome was defined as islet autoantibody-positive or multiple islet autoantibody-positive and when the study cohort was stratified by HLA risk genotype. A similar decay model was observed for coeliac disease-associated transglutaminase antibodies in the same cohort. Unlike the risk of developing islet autoantibodies, the rate of developing clinical diabetes in children who were islet autoantibody-positive did not decline with age. CONCLUSION: The risk of developing autoantibodies drops exponentially with age in children with a first-degree relative with type 1 diabetes.

Differences in treatment and monitoring of chronic myeloid leukemia with regard to age, but not sex: Results from a population-based study.

There are established guidelines for treatment and monitoring of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) but little is known about routine care. Data on ICD-10 codes as well as prescribed medications were available for 10.5 million patients in the statutory health insurance system in Bavaria for the years 2010 to 2016. Also, data on the molecular and cytogenetic monitoring were integrated. A total of 1714 adult patients with CML were observed. Only 50.8% received more than 67.5 daily doses per quarter year (target: 91.5) while 18.2% did not receive any tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI). The median number of daily doses was at least 80 doses per quarter year for all age groups in men, but decreased to 62 doses in elderly women. With this exception, no differences between men and women were observed. The percentage of patients without any TKI increased with age. The median number of molecular examinations was 3.54 independent of age and sex. Even in a highly developed country, still a considerable number of patients with CML seem to not receive adequate treatment, whereas molecular monitoring can be considered satisfactory.

Prognosis of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia presenting in advanced phase is defined mainly by blast count, but also by age, chromosomal aberrations and hemoglobin.

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is usually diagnosed in chronic phase, yet there is a small percentage of patients that is diagnosed in accelerated phase or blast crisis. Due to this rarity, little is known about the prognosis of these patients. Our aim was to identify prognostic factors for this cohort. We identified 283 patients in the EUTOS population-based and out-study registries that were diagnosed in advanced phase. Nearly all patients were treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors. Median survival in this heterogeneous cohort was 8.2 years. When comparing patients with more than 30% blasts to those with 20-29% blasts, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.32 (95%-confidence interval (CI): [0.7-2.6]). Patients with 20-29% blasts had a significantly higher risk than patients with less than 20% blasts (HR: 2.24, 95%-CI: [1.2-4.0], P = .008). We found that the blast count was the most important prognostic factor; however, age, hemoglobin, basophils and other chromosomal aberrations should be considered as well. The ELTS score was able to define two groups (high risk vs non-high risk) with an HR of 3.01 (95%-CI: [1.81-5.00], P < .001). Regarding the contrasting definitions of blast crisis, our data clearly supported the 20% cut-off over the 30% cut-off in this cohort. Based on our results, we conclude that a one-phase rather than a two-phase categorization of de novo advanced phase CML patients is appropriate.

Guidelines and recommendations for ensuring Good Epidemiological Practice (GEP): a guideline developed by the German Society for Epidemiology.

OBJECTIVE: To revise the German guidelines and recommendations for ensuring Good Epidemiological Practice (GEP) that were developed in 1999 by the German Society for Epidemiology (DGEpi), evaluated and revised in 2004, supplemented in 2008, and updated in 2014. METHODS: The executive board of the DGEpi tasked the third revision of the GEP. The revision was arrived as a result of a consensus-building process by a working group of the DGEpi in collaboration with other working groups of the DGEpi and with the German Association for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, the German Society of Social Medicine and Prevention (DGSMP), the German Region of the International Biometric Society (IBS-DR), the German Technology, Methods and Infrastructure for Networked Medical Research (TMF), and the German Network for Health Services Research (DNVF). The GEP also refers to related German Good Practice documents (e.g. Health Reporting, Cartographical Practice in the Healthcare System, Secondary Data Analysis). RESULTS: The working group modified the 11 guidelines (after revision: 1 ethics, 2 research question, 3 study protocol and manual of operations, 4 data protection, 5 sample banks, 6 quality assurance, 7 data storage and documentation, 8 analysis of epidemiological data, 9 contractual framework, 10 interpretation and scientific publication, 11 communication and public health) and modified and supplemented the related recommendations. All participating scientific professional associations adopted the revised GEP. CONCLUSIONS: The revised GEP are addressed to everyone involved in the planning, preparation, execution, analysis, and evaluation of epidemiological research, as well as research institutes and funding bodies.

[Ethical consideration of studies involving human subjects outside the regulatory framework: not mandatory, but of high relevance]. / Ethische Bewertung von Studien am Menschen außerhalb des regulatorischen Rahmens: nicht bindend, aber von großer Wichtigkeit.

According to the Declaration of Helsinki, ethics committees are obliged to evaluate any type of medical research involving human subjects in order to ensure an objective view on ethical considerations. This does not only mean considering whether the risks to study participants are ethically justifiable or not, but also checking whether the scientific quality of a study is sufficient. However, the role of ethics committees differs depending on whether the study to be considered is, for example, an approval study according to the German Medicines Act (AMG) or whether the study is outside the regulatory framework. For these so-called unregulated studies it is not always mandatory to obtain approval from an ethics committee or an institutional review board.In this paper, we first explain the term "unregulated studies" in detail and elaborate for which types of unregulated studies an application for ethical approval is required before we deal with the application for ethical approval as such and in particular with the study protocol as one of its major components. Registry studies, postmarketing surveillance studies, analyses of secondary data, surveys, intervention, and prognostic studies serve as examples to illustrate the broad range of unregulated studies.Finally, we discuss crucial aspects of the role of ethics committees with respect to the consideration of unregulated studies. In our conclusion, we point out the necessity of having ethics committees at each university in Germany that are also responsible for unregulated studies. In addition, the German legislature should define a stricter regulation such that unregulated studies also have to adhere to the vote of the ethics committee.

Long-term Quality of Life of Patients With Permanent End Ileostomy: Results of a Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey.

BACKGROUND: Patients with permanent end ileostomy are at high risk for detrimental stomal effects on their quality of life. However, little is known about the long-term quality of life of these patients. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess long-term quality of life in patients with permanent end ileostomy. DATA SOURCES: Registration at the German self-help organization ILCO was used for this study. STUDY SELECTION: Selection included a cross-sectional survey of 1434 patients with permanent end ileostomy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Quality of life was assessed using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36, including physical and mental component summary scores, the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index, and the Cleveland Global Quality of Life Index. Multivariate risk factor analysis was performed. RESULTS: A total of 783 responders were included. Indications for ileostomy included ulcerative colitis (44%), Crohn's disease (38%), and colorectal cancer (7%). Adverse effects on daily life because of stoma were reported by 72% of participants. Quality of life was significantly impaired compared with the general population on all of the summary scores and several subscales (physical component summary: 44.6 ± 10.4 (mean ± SD) vs 50.2 ± 10.2, p < 0.001; mental component summary: 47.5 ± 10.7 vs 51.5 ± 10.2, p < 0.001; Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index: 94.4 ± 16.4 vs 126.0, p < 0.001). Stoma care problems affecting quality of life were reported by 63% of respondents. These included parastomal hernia (p < 0.001), stenosis (p = 0.003), and prolapse (p = 0.008). Vitamin B12, iron, and zinc deficiencies were also associated with diminished quality of life; in particular, vitamin B12 deficiency was associated with reduced mental and emotional quality of life. LIMITATIONS: Not all patients undergoing ileostomy in Germany are registered at ILCO, and there were many nonresponders. In addition, the inherent limitations of cross-sectional studies should be considered, including the response-shift phenomenon. CONCLUSIONS: Quality of life was markedly impaired in patients with permanent end ileostomy as compared with the general population. The main reasons were stoma-associated morbidity and nutritional deficiency syndromes. These findings highlight the importance of prevention, screening, and adequate treatment.

Rescue management of early complications after liver transplantation-key for the long-term success.

PURPOSE: Postoperative complications may have not only immediate but also long-term effects on the outcomes. Here, we analyzed the effect of postoperative complications requiring a reoperation (grade 3b) within the first 30 days on patients' and graft survival following liver transplantation. METHODS: Graft and patient survival in relation to donor and recipient variables and the need of reoperation for complications of 277 consecutive liver transplants performed from January 2007 to December 2012 were analyzed. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-seven liver transplants were performed in 252 patients. Overall patient and graft survival at 1, 2, and 3 years were significantly reduced in patients requiring a reoperation. The labMELD score was significantly elevated (p = 0.04) and cold ischemia time was prolonged (p = 0.03) in recipients undergoing reoperations. Kaplan-Meier curves indicate that complications impact the outcome primarily within the first 3 months after transplantation. In multivariate analyses, the actual need of reoperation (p < 0.001), the labMELD score (p = 0.05), cold ischemia time (p = 0.02), and the need for hemodialysis pre-transplant (p = 0.05) were the only variables which correlated with the overall survival. CONCLUSION: Postoperative complications resulting in reoperations have a significant impact on the outcome primarily in the early phase after liver transplantation. Successful management of postoperative complications is key to every successful liver transplant program.

Prognostic scores for patients with chronic myeloid leukemia under particular consideration of competing causes of death.

Nowadays in many fields of medicine, prognostic scores are used to predict the outcome for individual patients. In chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), the Sokal, the Euro, and the EUTOS score are established prognostic scores which were addressed by the CML management recommendations of the European LeukemiaNet. This review provides a general definition of prognostic scores and explains their meaning. Main differences between the Sokal, the Euro, and the EUTOS score are highlighted. Due to the therapeutic success of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, the proportion of patients with causes of death unrelated to CML is growing. To assess the potential of a drug to prevent dying of CML, causes of death unrelated to CML need to be considered as competing risks. Supported by data of patients randomized to imatinib-based treatments within the German CML study IV, this review also explores the prognostic performance of the established scores if the primary event is death due to CML only and explains the implicit statistical particularities when treating other causes of death as competing risks. In the presence of competing risks, the application of both the cause-specific hazard model and the subdistribution hazard model is recommended when investigating the influence of prognostic factors on the event of interest. Another purpose of this work is to foster the ability of hematologists to interpret the outcome of a cause-specific hazard and a subdistribution hazard model and to understand the differences between them.

A multi-state model approach for prediction in chronic myeloid leukaemia.

Multi-state models support prediction in medicine. With different states of disease, chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) is particularly suited for the application of multi-state models. In this article, we tried to find a model for CML that allows predicting the prevalence of three different states (initial state of disease, remission and progression) in dependence on treatment, adjusted for age, sex and risk score. Based on the German CML Study IV, one of the largest randomised studies in CML, the model was able to represent the known effects of age and risk score on the probabilities of remission and progression. Patients achieving a major molecular remission had a better chance of surviving without progression, but this effect was not significant. Comparing treatments, patient of the high-dose arm had the greatest chance to be in the state "remission" at 5 years but did not seem to have an advantage considering "progression". The proposed illness-death model can be useful for predicting the course of CML based on the patient's individual covariates (trial registration: this is an explorative analysis of ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00055874).

Methods to incorporate patient preferences into medical decision algorithms and models and their quantification, balancing and evaluation: a scoping review protocol.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this scoping review is to identify and map methods used to incorporate patient preferences into medical algorithms and models as well report on their quantification, balancing, and evaluation in the literature. It will focus on computational methods used for incorporating patient preferences into algorithms and models at an individual level as well as the types of medical algorithms and models where these methods have been applied. INTRODUCTION: Medical algorithms and models are increasingly being used to support clinical and shared decision-making; however, their effectiveness, accuracy, acceptance, and comprehension may be limited if patients' preferences are not considered. To address this issue, it is important to explore methods integrating patient preferences. INCLUSION CRITERIA: This review will investigate patient preferences and their integration into medical algorithms and models for individual-level clinical decision-making. The scoping review will include diverse sources, such as peer-reviewed articles, clinical practice guidelines, gray literature, government reports, guidelines, and expert opinions for a comprehensive investigation of the subject. METHODS: This scoping review will follow JBI methodology. A comprehensive search will be conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, the Cochrane Library, OpenGrey, the National Technical Reports Library, and the first 20 pages of Google Scholar. The search strategy will include keywords related to patient preferences, medical algorithms and models, decision-making, and software tools and frameworks. Data extraction and analysis will be guided by the JBI framework, which includes an explorative and qualitative analysis. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Open Science Framework https://osf.io/qg3b5.

Fucoidan/chitosan hydrogels as carrier for sustained delivery of platelet-rich fibrin containing bioactive molecules.

Platelet-rich fibrin (PRF), derived from human blood, rich in wound healing components, has drawbacks in direct injections, such as rapid matrix degradation and growth factor release. Marine polysaccharides, mimicking the human extracellular matrix, show promising potential in tissue engineering. In this study, we impregnated the self-assembled fucoidan/chitosan (FU_CS) hydrogels with PRF obtaining PRF/FU_CS hydrogels. Our objective was to analyze the properties of a hydrogel and the sustained release of growth factors from the hydrogel that incorporates PRF. The results of SEM and BET-BJH demonstrated the relatively porous nature of the FU_CS hydrogels. ELISA data showed that combining FU_CS hydrogel with PRF led to a gradual 7-day sustained release of growth factors (VEGF, EGF, IL-8, PDGF-BB, TGF-ß1), compared to pure PRF. Histology confirmed ELISA data, demonstrating uniform PRF fibrin network distribution within the FU_CS hydrogel matrix. Furthermore, the FU_CS hydrogels revealed excellent cell viability. The results revealed that the PRF/FU_CS hydrogel has the potential to promote wound healing and tissue regeneration. This would be the first step in the search for improved growth factor release.

A novel prediction score determining individual clinical outcome 3 months after juvenile stroke (PREDICT-score).

BACKGROUND: Juvenile strokes (< 55 years) account for about 15% of all ischemic strokes. Structured data on clinical outcome in those patients are sparse. Here, we aimed to fill this gap by systematically collecting relevant data and modeling a juvenile stroke prediction score for the 3-month functional outcome. METHODS: We retrospectively integrated and analyzed clinical and outcome data of juvenile stroke and TIA patients treated at the LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich, Munich. Good outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale of 0-2 or return to baseline of function. We analyzed candidate predictors and developed a predictive model. Predictive abilities were inspected using Area Under the ROC curve (AUROC) and visual representation of the calibration. The model was validated internally. RESULTS: 346 patients were included in the analysis. We observed a good outcome in n = 293 patients (84.7%). The prediction model for an unfavourable outcome had an AUROC of 89.1% (95% CI 83.3-93.1%). The model includes age NIHSS, ASPECTS, blood glucose and type of vessel occlusion as predictors for the individual patient outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we introduce the highly accurate PREDICT-score for the 3-month outcome after juvenile stroke derived from clinical routine data. The PREDICT-score might be helpful in guiding individual patient decisions and designing future studies but needs further prospective validation which is already planned. Trial registration The study has been registered at https://drks.de (DRKS00024407) on March 31, 2022.

Prospective study validating a multidimensional treatment decision score predicting the 24-month outcome in untreated patients with clinically isolated syndrome and early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, the ProVal-MS study.

INTRODUCTION: In Multiple Sclerosis (MS), patients´ characteristics and (bio)markers that reliably predict the individual disease prognosis at disease onset are lacking. Cohort studies allow a close follow-up of MS histories and a thorough phenotyping of patients. Therefore, a multicenter cohort study was initiated to implement a wide spectrum of data and (bio)markers in newly diagnosed patients. METHODS: ProVal-MS (Prospective study to validate a multidimensional decision score that predicts treatment outcome at 24 months in untreated patients with clinically isolated syndrome or early Relapsing-Remitting-MS) is a prospective cohort study in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) or Relapsing-Remitting (RR)-MS (McDonald 2017 criteria), diagnosed within the last two years, conducted at five academic centers in Southern Germany. The collection of clinical, laboratory, imaging, and paraclinical data as well as biosamples is harmonized across centers. The primary goal is to validate (discrimination and calibration) the previously published DIFUTURE MS-Treatment Decision score (MS-TDS). The score supports clinical decision-making regarding the options of early (within 6 months after study baseline) platform medication (Interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl/diroximel fumarate, teriflunomide), or no immediate treatment (> 6 months after baseline) of patients with early RR-MS and CIS by predicting the probability of new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (MRIs) between 6 and 24 months. Further objectives are refining the MS-TDS score and providing data to identify new markers reflecting disease course and severity. The project also provides a technical evaluation of the ProVal-MS cohort within the IT-infrastructure of the DIFUTURE consortium (Data Integration for Future Medicine) and assesses the efficacy of the data sharing techniques developed. PERSPECTIVE: Clinical cohorts provide the infrastructure to discover and to validate relevant disease-specific findings. A successful validation of the MS-TDS will add a new clinical decision tool to the armamentarium of practicing MS neurologists from which newly diagnosed MS patients may take advantage. Trial registration ProVal-MS has been registered in the German Clinical Trials Register, `Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien` (DRKS)-ID: DRKS00014034, date of registration: 21 December 2018; https://drks.de/search/en/trial/DRKS00014034.

Predicting complete cytogenetic response and subsequent progression-free survival in 2060 patients with CML on imatinib treatment: the EUTOS score.

The outcome of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has been profoundly changed by the introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors into therapy, but the prognosis of patients with CML is still evaluated using prognostic scores developed in the chemotherapy and interferon era. The present work describes a new prognostic score that is superior to the Sokal and Euro scores both in its prognostic ability and in its simplicity. The predictive power of the score was developed and tested on a group of patients selected from a registry of 2060 patients enrolled in studies of first-line treatment with imatinib-based regimes. The EUTOS score using the percentage of basophils and spleen size best discriminated between high-risk and low-risk groups of patients, with a positive predictive value of not reaching a CCgR of 34%. Five-year progression-free survival was significantly better in the low- than in the high-risk group (90% vs 82%, P = .006). These results were confirmed in the validation sample. The score can be used to identify CML patients with significantly lower probabilities of responding to therapy and survival, thus alerting physicians to those patients who require closer observation and early intervention.

Post-tuberculosis lung impairment: systematic review and meta-analysis of spirometry data from 14 621 people.

BACKGROUND: A substantial proportion of tuberculosis patients remain with pulmonary symptoms and reduced physical capacity despite successful treatment. We performed a systematic review to analyse the burden of post-tuberculosis lung impairment measured by lung function testing. METHODS: We searched the PubMed database for articles published between database inception and November 2020 and performed meta-analyses to estimate the prevalence, type and severity of lung impairment among drug-susceptible and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis survivors. Methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. RESULTS: 54 articles were included in this review. For subjects with former drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the combined estimated mean was 76.6% (95% CI 71.6-81.6) of predicted for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and 81.8% (95% CI 77.4-86.2) for forced vital capacity (FVC). In former patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, it was 65.9% (95% CI 57.1-74.7) for FEV1 and 76.0% (95% CI 66.3-85.8) for FVC, respectively. The analysis of impairment types in former patients with drug-susceptible and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis showed that 22.0% versus 19.0% had obstructive, 23.0% versus 22.0% restrictive and 15.0% versus 43.0% had mixed impairment type, respectively. In the majority of studies, at least 10-15% of tuberculosis survivors had severe lung impairment. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review showed long-term abnormal spirometry results in a significant proportion of tuberculosis survivors.