Decline in biological soil crust N-fixing lichens linked to increasing summertime temperatures.

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts), comprised of mosses, lichens, and cyanobacteria, are key components to many dryland communities. Climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances are thought to cause a decline in mosses and lichens, yet few long-term studies exist to track potential shifts in these sensitive soil-surface communities. Using a unique long-term observational dataset from a temperate dryland with initial observations dating back to 1967, we examine the effects of 53 y of observed environmental variation and Bromus tectorum invasion on biocrust communities in a grassland never grazed by domestic livestock. Annual observations show a steep decline in N-fixing lichen cover (dominated by Collema species) from 1996 to 2002, coinciding with a period of extended drought, with Collema communities never able to recover. Declines in other lichen species were also observed, both in number of species present and by total cover, which were attributed to increasing summertime temperatures. Conversely, moss species gradually gained in cover over the survey years, especially following a large Bromus tectorum invasion at the study onset (ca. 1996 to 2001). These results support a growing body of studies that suggests climate change is a key driver in changes to certain components of late-successional biocrust communities. Results here suggest that warming may partially negate decades of protection from disturbance, with biocrust communities reaching a vital tipping point. The accelerated rate of ongoing warming observed in this study may have resulted in the loss of lichen cover and diversity, which could have long-term implications for global temperate dryland ecosystems.

Secondary production of the central rangeland region of the United States.

Rangelands are the dominant land use across a broad swath of central North America where they span a wide gradient, from <350 to >900 mm, in mean annual precipitation. Substantial efforts have examined temporal and spatial variation in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to precipitation (PPT) across this gradient. In contrast, net secondary productivity (NSP, e.g., primary consumer production) has not been evaluated analogously. However, livestock production, which is a form of NSP or primary consumer production supported by primary production, is the dominant non-cultivated land use and an integral economic driver in these regions. Here, we used long-term (mean length = 19 years) ANPP and NSP data from six research sites across the Central Great Plains with a history of a conservative stocking to determine resource (i.e., PPT)-productivity relationships, NSP sensitivities to dry-year precipitation, and regional trophic efficiencies (e.g., NSP:ANPP ratio). PPT-ANPP relationships were linear for both temporal (site-based) and spatial (among site) gradients. The spatial PPT-NSP model revealed that PPT mediated a saturating relationship for NSP as sites became more mesic, a finding that contrasts with many plant-based PPT-ANPP relationships. A saturating response to high growing-season precipitation suggests biogeochemical rather than vegetation growth constraints may govern NSP (i.e., large herbivore production). Differential sensitivity in NSP to dry years demonstrated that the primary consumer production response heightened as sites became more xeric. Although sensitivity generally decreased with increasing precipitation as predicted from known PPT-ANPP relationships, evidence suggests that the dominant species' identity and traits influenced secondary production efficiency. Non-native northern mixed-grass prairie was outperformed by native Central Great Plains rangeland in sensitivity to dry years and efficiency in converting ANPP to NSP. A more comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms leading to differences in producer and consumer responses will require multisite experiments to assess biotic and abiotic determinants of multi-trophic level efficiency and sensitivity.

Droughting a megadrought: Ecological consequences of a decade of experimental drought atop aridification on the Colorado Plateau.

Global dryland vegetation communities will likely change as ongoing drought conditions shift regional climates towards a more arid future. Additional aridification of drylands can impact plant and ground cover, biogeochemical cycles, and plant-soil feedbacks, yet how and when these crucial ecosystem components will respond to drought intensification requires further investigation. Using a long-term precipitation reduction experiment (35% reduction) conducted across the Colorado Plateau and spanning 10 years into a 20+ year regional megadrought, we explored how vegetation cover, soil conditions, and growing season nitrogen (N) availability are impacted by drying climate conditions. We observed large declines for all dominant plant functional types (C3 and C4 grasses and C3 and C4 shrubs) across measurement period, both in the drought treatment and control plots, likely due to ongoing regional megadrought conditions. In experimental drought plots, we observed less plant cover, less biological soil crust cover, warmer and drier soil conditions, and more soil resin-extractable N compared to the control plots. Observed increases in soil N availability were best explained by a negative correlation with plant cover regardless of treatment, suggesting that declines in vegetation N uptake may be driving increases in available soil N. However, in ecosystems experiencing long-term aridification, increased N availability may ultimately result in N losses if soil moisture is consistently too dry to support plant and microbial N immobilization and ecosystem recovery. These results show dramatic, worrisome declines in plant cover with long-term drought. Additionally, this study highlights that more plant cover losses are possible with further drought intensification and underscore that, in addition to large drought effects on aboveground communities, drying trends drive significant changes to critical soil resources such as N availability, all of which could have long-term ecosystem impacts for drylands.

Ecosystem resilience to invasion and drought: Insights after 24 years in a rare never-grazed grassland.

Understanding the resilience of ecosystems globally is hampered by the complex and interacting drivers of change characteristic of the Anthropocene. This is true for drylands of the western US, where widespread alteration of disturbance regimes and spread of invasive non-native species occurred with westward expansion during the 1800s, including the introduction of domestic livestock and spread of Bromus tectorum, an invasive non-native annual grass. In addition, this region has experienced a multi-decadal drought not seen for at least 1200 years with potentially large and interacting impacts on native plant communities. Here, we present 24 years of twice-annual plant cover monitoring (1997-2021) from a semiarid grassland never grazed by domestic livestock but subject to a patchy invasion of B. tectorum beginning in ~1994, compare our findings to surveys done in 1967, and examine potential climate drivers of plant community changes. We found a significant warming trend in the study area, with more than 75% of study year temperatures being warmer than average (1966-2021). We observed a native perennial grass community with high resilience to climate forcings with cover values like those in 1967. In invaded patches, B. tectorum cover was greatest in the early years of this study (1997-2001; ~20%-40%) but was subsequently constrained by climate and subtle variation in soils, with limited evidence of long-term impacts to native vegetation, contradicting earlier studies. Our ability to predict year-to-year variation in functional group and species cover with climate metrics varied, with a 12-month integrated index and fall and winter patterns appearing most important. However, declines to near zero live cover in recent years in response to regional drought intensification leave questions regarding the resiliency of intact grasslands to ongoing aridification and whether the vegetation observations reported here may be a leading indicator of impending change in this protected ecosystem.

Compound hydroclimatic extremes in a semi-arid grassland: Drought, deluge, and the carbon cycle.

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events including droughts and large precipitation events or "deluges." While many studies have focused on the ecological impacts of individual events (e.g., a heat wave), there is growing recognition that when extreme events co-occur as compound extremes, (e.g., a heatwave during a drought), the additive effects on ecosystems are often greater than either extreme alone. In this study, we assessed a unique type of extreme-a contrasting compound extreme-where the extremes may have offsetting, rather than additive ecological effects, by examining how a deluge during a drought impacts productivity and carbon cycling in a semi-arid grassland. The experiment consisted of four treatments: a control (average precipitation), an extreme drought (<5th percentile), an extreme drought interrupted by a single deluge (>95th percentile), or an extreme drought interrupted by the equivalent amount of precipitation added in several smaller events. We highlight three key results. First, extreme drought resulted in early senescence, reduced carbon uptake, and a decline in net primary productivity relative to the control treatment. Second, the deluge imposed during extreme drought stimulated carbon fluxes and plant growth well above the levels of both the control and the drought treatment with several additional smaller rainfall events, emphasizing the importance of precipitation amount, event size, and timing. Third, while the deluge's positive effects on carbon fluxes and plant growth persisted for 1 month, the deluge did not completely offset the negative effects of extreme drought on end-of-season productivity. Thus, in the case of these contrasting hydroclimatic extremes, a deluge during a drought can stimulate temporally dynamic ecosystem processes (e.g., net ecosystem exchange) while only partially compensating for reductions in ecosystem functions over longer time scales (e.g., aboveground net primary productivity).

Long-term Complications of Ebola Virus Disease: Prevalence and Predictors of Major Symptoms and the Role of Inflammation.

BACKGROUND: Cohort studies have reported a high prevalence of musculoskeletal, neurologic, auditory, and visual complications among Ebola virus disease (EVD) survivors. However, little is known about the host- and disease-related predictors of these symptoms and their etiological mechanisms. METHODS: The presence and patterns of 8 cardinal symptoms that are most commonly reported following EVD survival were assessed in the 326 EVD survivors who participated in the ongoing longitudinal Liberian EVD Survivor Study. At quarterly study visits, symptoms that developed since acute EVD were recorded and blood was collected for biomarkers of inflammation and immune activation. RESULTS: At baseline (mean 408 days from acute EVD), 75.5% of survivors reported at least 1 new cardinal symptom since surviving EVD, which in 85.8% was rated as highly interfering with life. Two or more incident symptoms were reported by 61.0% of survivors, with pairings of joint pain, headache, or fatigue the most frequent. Women were significantly more likely than men to report headache, while older age was significantly associated with musculoskeletal and visual symptoms. In analyses adjusted for multiple comparisons, no statistically significant association was found between any symptom and 26 markers of inflammation and immune activation. Symptom frequency remained largely unchanged during study follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Post-EVD complications occur in a majority of survivors and remain present more than 4 years after acute infection. An association between markers of inflammation and immune activation and individual symptoms was not found, suggesting an alternative etiology for persistent post-EVD symptomatology.

Large-scale and local climatic controls on large herbivore productivity: implications for adaptive rangeland management.

Rangeland ecosystems worldwide are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty in precipitation, both within and across years. Such uncertainty creates challenges for livestock managers seeking to match herbivore numbers with forage availability to prevent vegetation degradation and optimize livestock production. Here, we assess variation in annual large herbivore production (LHP, kg/ha) across multiple herbivore densities over a 78-yr period (1940-2018) in a semiarid rangeland ecosystem (shortgrass steppe of eastern Colorado, USA) that has experienced several phase changes in global-level sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, as measured by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We examined the influence of prevailing PDO phase, magnitude of late winter (February-April) ENSO, prior growing-season precipitation (prior April to prior September) and precipitation during the six months (prior October to current April) preceding the growing season on LHP. All of these are known prior to the start of the growing season in the shortgrass steppe and could potentially be used by livestock managers to adjust herbivore densities. Annual LHP was greater during warm PDO irrespective of herbivore density, while variance in LHP increased by 69% (moderate density) and 91% (high density) under cold-phase compared to warm-phase PDO. No differences in LHP attributed to PDO phase were observed with low herbivore density. ENSO effects on LHP, specifically La Niña, were more pronounced during cold-phase PDO years. High herbivore density increased LHP at a greater rate than at moderate and low densities with increasing fall and winter precipitation. Differential gain, a weighted measure of LHP under higher relative to lower herbivore densities, was sensitive to prevailing PDO phase, ENSO magnitude, and precipitation amounts from the prior growing season and current fall-winter season. Temporal hierarchical approaches using PDO, ENSO, and local-scale precipitation can enhance decision-making for flexible herbivore densities. Herbivore densities could be increased above recommended levels with lowered risk of negative returns for managers during warm-phase PDO to result in greater LHP and less variability. Conversely, during cold-phase PDO, managers should be cognizant of the additional influences of ENSO and prior fall-winter precipitation, which can help predict when to reduce herbivore densities and minimize risk of forage shortages.

Seasonal and individual event-responsiveness are key determinants of carbon exchange across plant functional types.

Differentiation in physiological activity is a critical component of resource partitioning in resource-limited environments. For example, it is crucial to understand how plant physiological performance varies through time for different functional groups to forecast how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to change. Here, we tracked the seasonal progress of 13 plant species representing C3 shrub, perennial C3 and C4 grass, and annual forb functional groups of the Colorado Plateau, USA. We tested for differences in carbon assimilation strategies and how photosynthetic rates related to recent, seasonal, and annual precipitation and temperature variables. Despite seasonal shifts in species presence and activity, we found small differences in seasonally weighted annual photosynthetic rates among groups. However, differences in the timing of maximum assimilation (Anet) were strongly functional group-dependent. C3 shrubs employed a relatively consistent, low carbon capture strategy and maintained activity year-round but switched to a rapid growth strategy in response to recent climate conditions. In contrast, grasses maintained higher carbon capture during spring months when all perennials had maximum photosynthetic rates, but grasses were dormant during months when shrubs remained active. Perennial grass Anet rates were explained in part by precipitation accumulated during the preceding year and average maximum temperatures during the past 48 h, a result opposite to shrubs. These results lend insight into diverse physiological strategies and their connections to climate, and also point to the potential for shrubs to increase in abundance in response to increased climatic variability in drylands, given shrubs' ability to respond rapidly to changing conditions.

Shrub persistence and increased grass mortality in response to drought in dryland systems.

Droughts in the southwest United States have led to major forest and grassland die-off events in recent decades, suggesting plant community and ecosystem shifts are imminent as native perennial grass populations are replaced by shrub- and invasive plant-dominated systems. These patterns are similar to those observed in arid and semiarid systems around the globe, but our ability to predict which species will experience increased drought-induced mortality in response to climate change remains limited. We investigated meteorological drought-induced mortality of nine dominant plant species in the Colorado Plateau Desert by experimentally imposing a year-round 35% precipitation reduction for eight continuous years. We distributed experimental plots across numerous plant, soil, and parent material types, resulting in 40 distinct sites across a 4,500 km2 region of the Colorado Plateau Desert. For all 8 years, we tracked c. 400 individual plants and evaluated mortality responses to treatments within and across species, and through time. We also examined the influence of abiotic and biotic site factors in driving mortality responses. Overall, high mortality trends were driven by dominant grass species, including Achnatherum hymenoides, Pleuraphis jamesii, and Sporobolus cryptandrus. Responses varied widely from year to year and dominant shrub species were generally resistant to meteorological drought, likely due to their ability to access deeper soil water. Importantly, mortality increased in the presence of invasive species regardless of treatment, and native plant die-off occurred even under ambient conditions, suggesting that recent climate changes are already negatively impacting dominant species in these systems. Results from this long-term drought experiment suggest major shifts in community composition and, as a result, ecosystem function. Patterns also show that, across multiple soil and plant community types, native perennial grass species may be replaced by shrubs and invasive annuals in the Colorado Plateau Desert.

Anti-Ebola Virus Antibody Levels in Convalescent Plasma and Viral Load After Plasma Infusion in Patients With Ebola Virus Disease.

Background: Ebola virus (EBOV) neutralizing antibody in plasma may reduce viral load following administration of plasma to patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD), but measurement of these antibodies is complex. Methods: Anti-EBOV antibody was measured by 2 neutralization and 2 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) in convalescent plasma (ECP) from 100 EVD survivor donors in Liberia. Viral load was assessed repetitively in patients with EVD participating in a clinical trial of enhanced standard of care plus ECP. Results: All 4 anti-EBOV assays were highly concordant for detection of EBOV antibody. Antibodies were not detected in plasma specimens obtained from 15 of 100 donors, including 7 with documented EBOV-positive reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction during EVD. Viral load was reduced following each dose in the 2 clinical trial participants who received ECP with higher antibody levels but not in the 2 who received ECP with lower antibody levels. Conclusions: Recovery from EVD can occur with absence of detectable anti-EBOV antibody several months after disease onset. ELISAs may be useful to select ECP donors or identify ECP units that contain neutralizing antibody. ECP with higher anti-EBOV antibody levels may have greater effect on EBOV load-an observation that requires further investigation. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT02333578.

Validation of the Cepheid GeneXpert for Detecting Ebola Virus in Semen.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus (EBOV) RNA persistence in semen, reported sexual transmission, and sporadic clusters at the end of the 2013-2016 epidemic have prompted recommendations that male survivors refrain from unprotected sex unless their semen is confirmed to be EBOV free. However, there is no fully validated assay for EBOV detection in fluids other than blood. METHODS: The Cepheid Xpert Ebola assay for EBOV RNA detection was validated for whole semen and blood using samples obtained from uninfected donors and spiked with inactivated EBOV. The validation procedure incorporated standards from Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute and Good Clinical Laboratory Practices guidelines for evaluating molecular devices for use in infectious disease testing. RESULTS: The assay produced limits of detection of 1000 copies/mL in semen and 275 copies/mL in blood. Limits of detection for both semen and blood increased with longer intervals between collection and testing, with acceptable results obtained up to 72 hours after specimen collection. CONCLUSIONS: The Cepheid Xpert Ebola assay is accurate and precise for detecting EBOV in whole semen. A validated assay for EBOV RNA detection in semen informs the care of male survivors of Ebola, as well as recommendations for public health.

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years.

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of 'Drought-Net', a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites - a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on each site's past climatic characteristics. This approach, though not often used by ecologists, allows ecological responses to be directly compared across disparate ecosystems and climates, facilitating process-level understanding of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes.

Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: A synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments.

Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.

Apheresis for collection of Ebola convalescent plasma in Liberia.

PURPOSE: This report describes initiation of apheresis capability in Liberia, Africa to support a clinical trial of convalescent plasma therapy for Ebola Virus Disease. METHODS: A bloodmobile was outfitted in the United States as a four-bed apheresis unit with capabilities including pathogen reduction, electronic blood establishment computer system, designated areas for donor counseling and laboratory testing, and onboard electrical power generation. After air transport to Liberia, the bloodmobile was positioned at ELWA Hospital, Monrovia, and connected to the hospital's power grid. Liberian staff were trained to conduct donor screening, which included questionnaire and onsite blood typing and transfusion transmitted infection (TTI) testing, and plasma collection and processing. RESULTS: The bloodmobile was operational within 3 weeks after arrival of the advance team. Of 101 donors who passed the pre-screening questionnaire, 32 were deferred. Twenty-eight of ninty-nine tested survivors were deferred for positive transfusion transmitted infection (TTI) tests; twenty-one were positive for hepatitis B, hepatitis C, or human immunodeficiency virus. The majority of donors had type O blood; all but one were Rh positive. Forty-three survivors donated at least once; eighty-nine apheresis attempts resulted in eighty-one successful collections. CONCLUSIONS: Apheresis capability was emergently established in Liberia to support an efficacy trial of Ebola Convalescent Plasma. Extensive cooperation among multinational team members, engineers, logisticians, and blood safety technical personnel at the operational site was required to surmount challenges to execution posed by logistical factors. The high proportion of positive TTI tests supported the use of a pathogen reduction system to enhance product safety. J. Clin. Apheresis 32:175-181, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Small Retinoprotective Peptides Reveal a Receptor-binding Region on Pigment Epithelium-derived Factor.

The cytoprotective effects of pigment epithelium-derived factor (PEDF) require interactions between an as of a yet undefined region with a distinct ectodomain on the PEDF receptor (PEDF-R). Here we characterized the area in PEDF that interacts with PEDF-R to promote photoreceptor survival. Molecular docking studies suggested that the ligand binding site of PEDF-R interacts with the neurotrophic region of PEDF (44-mer, positions 78-121). Binding assays demonstrated that PEDF-R bound the 44-mer peptide. Moreover, peptide P1 from the PEDF-R ectodomain had affinity for the 44-mer and a shorter fragment within it, 17-mer (positions 98-114). Single residue substitutions to alanine along the 17-mer sequence were designed and tested for binding and biological activity. Altered 17-mer[R99A] did not bind to the P1 peptide, whereas 17-mer[H105A] had higher affinity than the unmodified 17-mer. Peptides 17-mer, 17-mer[H105A], and 44-mer exhibited cytoprotective effects in cultured retina R28 cells. Intravitreal injections of these peptides and PEDF in the rd1 mouse model of retinal degeneration decreased the numbers of dying photoreceptors, 17-mer[H105A] being most effective. The blocking peptide P1 hindered their protective effects both in retina cells and in vivo. Thus, in addition to demonstrating that the region composed of positions 98-114 of PEDF contains critical residues for PEDF-R interaction that mediates survival effects, the findings reveal distinct small PEDF fragments with neurotrophic effects on photoreceptors.

Not all droughts are created equal: the impacts of interannual drought pattern and magnitude on grassland carbon cycling.

Climate extremes, such as drought, may have immediate and potentially prolonged effects on carbon cycling. Grasslands store approximately one-third of all terrestrial carbon and may become carbon sources during droughts. However, the magnitude and duration of drought-induced disruptions to the carbon cycle, as well as the mechanisms responsible, remain poorly understood. Over the next century, global climate models predict an increase in two types of drought: chronic but subtle 'press-droughts', and shorter term but extreme 'pulse-droughts'. Much of our current understanding of the ecological impacts of drought comes from experimental rainfall manipulations. These studies have been highly valuable, but are often short term and rarely quantify carbon feedbacks. To address this knowledge gap, we used the Community Land Model 4.0 to examine the individual and interactive effects of pulse- and press-droughts on carbon cycling in a mesic grassland of the US Great Plains. A series of modeling experiments were imposed by varying drought magnitude (precipitation amount) and interannual pattern (press- vs. pulse-droughts) to examine the effects on carbon storage and cycling at annual to century timescales. We present three main findings. First, a single-year pulse-drought had immediate and prolonged effects on carbon storage due to differential sensitivities of ecosystem respiration and gross primary production. Second, short-term pulse-droughts caused greater carbon loss than chronic press-droughts when total precipitation reductions over a 20-year period were equivalent. Third, combining pulse- and press-droughts had intermediate effects on carbon loss compared to the independent drought types, except at high drought levels. Overall, these results suggest that interannual drought pattern may be as important for carbon dynamics as drought magnitude and that extreme droughts may have long-lasting carbon feedbacks in grassland ecosystems.

A response adaptive randomization platform trial for efficient evaluation of Ebola virus treatments: A model for pandemic response.

The outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa is the largest ever recorded. Numerous treatment alternatives for Ebola have been considered, including widely available repurposed drugs, but initiation of enrollment into clinical trials has been limited. The proposed trial is an adaptive platform design. Multiple agents and combinations will be investigated simultaneously. Additionally, new agents may enter the trial as they become available, and failing agents may be removed. In order to accommodate the many possible agents and combinations, a critical feature of this design is the use of response adaptive randomization to assign treatment regimens. As the trial progresses, the randomization ratio evolves to favor the arms that are performing better, making the design also suitable for all-cause pandemic preparedness planning. The study was approved by US and Sierra Leone ethics committees, and reviewed by the US Food and Drug Administration. Additionally, data management, drug supply lines, and local sites were prepared. However, in response to the declining epidemic seen in February 2015, the trial was not initiated. Sierra Leone remains ready to rapidly activate the protocol as an emergency response trial in the event of a resurgence of Ebola. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02380625.) In summary, we have designed a single controlled trial capable of efficiently identifying highly effective or failing regimens among a rapidly evolving list of proposed therapeutic alternatives for Ebola virus disease and to treat the patients within the trial effectively based on accruing data. Provision of these regimens, if found safe and effective, would have a major impact on future epidemics by providing effective treatment options.

Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments.

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences.

Pulse-drought atop press-drought: unexpected plant responses and implications for dryland ecosystems.

In drylands, climate change is predicted to cause chronic reductions in water availability (press-droughts) through reduced precipitation and increased temperatures as well as increase the frequency and intensity of short-term extreme droughts (pulse-droughts). These changes in precipitation patterns may have profound ecosystem effects, depending on the sensitivities of the dominant plant functional types (PFTs). Here we present the responses of four Colorado Plateau PFTs to an experimentally imposed, 4-year, press-drought during which a natural pulse-drought occurred. Our objectives were to (1) identify the drought sensitivities of the PFTs, (2) assess the additive effects of the press- and pulse-drought, and (3) examine the interactive effects of soils and drought. Our results revealed that the C3 grasses were the most sensitive PFT to drought, the C3 shrubs were the most resistant, and the C4 grasses and shrubs had intermediate drought sensitivities. Although we expected the C3 grasses would have the greatest response to drought, the higher resistance of C3 shrubs relative to the C4 shrubs was contrary to our predictions based on the higher water use efficiency of C4 photosynthesis. Also, the additive effects of press- and pulse-droughts caused high morality in C3 grasses, which has large ecological and economic ramifications for this region. Furthermore, despite predictions based on the inverse texture hypothesis, we observed no interactive effects of soils with the drought treatment on cover or mortality. These results suggest that plant responses to droughts in drylands may differ from expectations and have large ecological effects if press- and pulse-droughts push species beyond physiological and mortality thresholds.

The LTAR Grazing Land Common Experiment at the Central Plains Experimental Range: Collaborative adaptive rangeland management.

Semiarid rangelands throughout the western Great Plains support livestock production and many other ecosystem services. The degree to which adaptive multi-paddock (AMP) grazing management approaches can help achieve desired ecosystem services remains unclear. At the Central Plains Experimental Range in northeastern Colorado, a management-science partnership with a diverse stakeholder group is comparing collaborative adaptive rangeland management (CARM), designed to incorporate AMP principles, to traditional rangeland management (TRM), consisting of season-long grazing during the growing season. Each treatment was implemented on a set of 10, 130-ha pastures paired by soils, topography, and plant communities to evaluate how CARM affects vegetation (composition and production), livestock production (steer weight gain), and wildlife habitat (vegetation structure for grassland birds). For the first 5 years of the experiment, CARM cattle were managed as a single herd using AMP grazing with planned year-long rest in 20% of the pastures. Relative to TRM, CARM enhanced heterogeneity in vegetation structure across the landscape, benefiting two grassland bird species. However, this came at the cost of 12%-16% lower steer weight gains in CARM versus TRM and declining populations of a third bird species of conservation concern in both treatments. Here we discuss how increased understanding of ecological and social processes during the experiment's first 5 years led to changes in the CARM treatment and management objectives during the next 5 years. We also discuss how innovations in remote sensing, environmental sensors, ecosystem modeling, social learning, and economic analyses are being integrated into and supported by the CARM experiment.