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1.
Epidemiology ; 35(4): 568-578, 2024 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38912714

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The UK delivered its first "booster" COVID-19 vaccine doses in September 2021, initially to individuals at high risk of severe disease, then to all adults. The BNT162b2 Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was used initially, then also Moderna mRNA-1273. METHODS: With the approval of the National Health Service England, we used routine clinical data to estimate the effectiveness of boosting with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 compared with no boosting in eligible adults who had received two primary course vaccine doses. We matched each booster recipient with an unboosted control on factors relating to booster priority status and prior COVID-19 immunization. We adjusted for additional factors in Cox models, estimating hazard ratios up to 182 days (6 months) following booster dose. We estimated hazard ratios overall and within the following periods: 1-14, 15-42, 43-69, 70-97, 98-126, 127-152, and 155-182 days. Outcomes included a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, COVID-19 hospitalization, COVID-19 death, non-COVID-19 death, and fracture. RESULTS: We matched 8,198,643 booster recipients with unboosted controls. Adjusted hazard ratios over 6-month follow-up were: positive SARS-CoV-2 test 0.75 (0.74, 0.75); COVID-19 hospitalization 0.30 (0.29, 0.31); COVID-19 death 0.11 (0.10, 0.14); non-COVID-19 death 0.22 (0.21, 0.23); and fracture 0.77 (0.75, 0.78). Estimated effectiveness of booster vaccines against severe COVID-19-related outcomes peaked during the first 3 months following the booster dose. By 6 months, the cumulative incidence of positive SARS-CoV-2 test was higher in boosted than unboosted individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that COVID-19 booster vaccination, compared with no booster vaccination, provided substantial protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and COVID-19 death but only limited protection against positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Lower rates of fracture in boosted than unboosted individuals may suggest unmeasured confounding. Observational studies should report estimated vaccine effectiveness against nontarget and negative control outcomes.


Assuntos
Vacina de mRNA-1273 contra 2019-nCoV , Vacina BNT162 , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Imunização Secundária , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Idoso , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , Eficácia de Vacinas , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos
2.
Ann Intern Med ; 176(5): 685-693, 2023 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37126810

RESUMO

The COVID-19 vaccines were developed and rigorously evaluated in randomized trials during 2020. However, important questions, such as the magnitude and duration of protection, their effectiveness against new virus variants, and the effectiveness of booster vaccination, could not be answered by randomized trials and have therefore been addressed in observational studies. Analyses of observational data can be biased because of confounding and because of inadequate design that does not consider the evolution of the pandemic over time and the rapid uptake of vaccination. Emulating a hypothetical "target trial" using observational data assembled during vaccine rollouts can help manage such potential sources of bias. This article describes 2 approaches to target trial emulation. In the sequential approach, on each day, eligible persons who have not yet been vaccinated are matched to a vaccinated person. The single-trial approach sets a single baseline at the start of the rollout and considers vaccination as a time-varying variable. The nature of the confounding depends on the analysis strategy: Estimating "per-protocol" effects (accounting for vaccination of initially unvaccinated persons after baseline) may require adjustment for both baseline and "time-varying" confounders. These issues are illustrated by using observational data from 2 780 931 persons in the United Kingdom aged 70 years or older to estimate the effect of a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Addressing the issues discussed in this article should help authors of observational studies provide robust evidence to guide clinical and policy decisions.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vacinas , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Imunização Secundária , Vacinação
3.
BMC Med ; 18(1): 79, 2020 04 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32279658

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Patient and public involvement (PPI) in research envisages a relationship built throughout the lifespan of a research project between academics, clinicians and PPI colleagues in order to inform, plan, execute and, in due course, disseminate and translate research. To be meaningful, all stakeholders need to actively engage in this exchange of expertise. However, despite some funders requiring PPI plans to be included in grant applications, there remains a gap between what is expected and what is delivered. MAIN BODY: As an exemplar, we reflect on how, in the Asthma UK Centre for Applied Research (AUKCAR), we set out to create a supportive, organised environment with the overarching value of 'keeping patients at the heart of everything we do'. The key has been in planning and creating a suitably funded organisational infrastructure with dedicated PPI researchers along with the development of and expectation to abide by an agreed set of norms and values. Specifically, expecting AUKCAR PhD students and early career researchers to engage with PPI has established a working mode that we hope will last. Regular interactions and proactive Patient Leads increase PPI network cohesion. CONCLUSION: With adaptation, the AUKCAR PPI model can be translated to international contexts.


Assuntos
Participação da Comunidade/métodos , Participação do Paciente/métodos , Projetos de Pesquisa/normas , Humanos
5.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 2173, 2024 Mar 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38467603

RESUMO

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is associated with an increased risk of arterial and venous thrombotic events, but the implications of vaccination for this increased risk are uncertain. With the approval of NHS England, we quantified associations between COVID-19 diagnosis and cardiovascular diseases in different vaccination and variant eras using linked electronic health records for ~40% of the English population. We defined a 'pre-vaccination' cohort (18,210,937 people) in the wild-type/Alpha variant eras (January 2020-June 2021), and 'vaccinated' and 'unvaccinated' cohorts (13,572,399 and 3,161,485 people respectively) in the Delta variant era (June-December 2021). We showed that the incidence of each arterial thrombotic, venous thrombotic and other cardiovascular outcomes was substantially elevated during weeks 1-4 after COVID-19, compared with before or without COVID-19, but less markedly elevated in time periods beyond week 4. Hazard ratios were higher after hospitalised than non-hospitalised COVID-19 and higher in the pre-vaccination and unvaccinated cohorts than the vaccinated cohort. COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of cardiovascular events after COVID-19 infection. People who had COVID-19 before or without being vaccinated are at higher risk of cardiovascular events for at least two years.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Humanos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Teste para COVID-19 , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Estudos de Coortes , Vacinação
6.
Int J Med Inform ; 170: 104942, 2023 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36529028

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Asthma is one of the commonest chronic conditions in the world. Subtypes of asthma have been defined, typically from clinical datasets on small, well-characterised subpopulations of asthma patients. We sought to define asthma subtypes from large longitudinal primary care electronic health records (EHRs) using cluster analysis. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we extracted asthma subpopulations from the Optimum Patient Care Research Database (OPCRD) to robustly train and test algorithms, and externally validated findings in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. In both databases, we identified adults with an asthma diagnosis code recorded in the three years prior to an index date. Train and test datasets were selected from OPCRD using an index date of Jan 1, 2016. Two internal validation datasets were selected from OPCRD using index dates of Jan 1, 2017 and 2018. Three external validation datasets were selected from SAIL using index dates of Jan 1, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Each dataset comprised 50,000 randomly selected non-overlapping patients. Subtypes were defined by applying multiple correspondence analysis and k-means cluster analysis to the train dataset, and were validated in the internal and external validation datasets. RESULTS: We defined six asthma subtypes with clear clinical interpretability: low inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use and low healthcare utilisation (30% of patients); low-to-medium ICS use (36%); low-to-medium ICS use and comorbidities (12%); varied ICS use and comorbid chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (4%); high (10%) and very high ICS use (7%). The subtypes were replicated with high accuracy in internal (91-92%) and external (84-86%) datasets. CONCLUSION: Asthma subtypes derived and validated in large independent EHR databases were primarily defined by level of ICS use, level of healthcare use, and presence of comorbidities. This has important clinical implications towards defining asthma subtypes, facilitating patient stratification, and developing more personalised monitoring and treatment strategies.


Assuntos
Asma , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Adulto , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Corticosteroides/uso terapêutico , Administração por Inalação , Asma/diagnóstico , Asma/epidemiologia , Asma/tratamento farmacológico , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
7.
Lancet Reg Health Eur ; : 100636, 2023 May 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37363796

RESUMO

Background: Kidney disease is a key risk factor for COVID-19-related mortality and suboptimal vaccine response. Optimising vaccination strategies is essential to reduce the disease burden in this vulnerable population. We therefore compared the effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules involving AZD1222 (AZ; ChAdOx1-S) and BNT162b2 (BNT) among people with kidney disease in England. Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we performed a retrospective cohort study among people with moderate-to-severe kidney disease. Using linked primary care and UK Renal Registry records in the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, we identified adults with stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease, dialysis recipients, and kidney transplant recipients. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare COVID-19-related outcomes and non-COVID-19 death after two-dose (AZ-AZ vs BNT-BNT) and three-dose (AZ-AZ-BNT vs BNT-BNT-BNT) schedules. Findings: After two doses, incidence during the Delta wave was higher in AZ-AZ (n = 257,580) than BNT-BNT recipients (n = 169,205; adjusted hazard ratios [95% CIs] 1.43 [1.37-1.50], 1.59 [1.43-1.77], 1.44 [1.12-1.85], and 1.09 [1.02-1.17] for SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalisation, COVID-19-related death, and non-COVID-19 death, respectively). Findings were consistent across disease subgroups, including dialysis and transplant recipients. After three doses, there was little evidence of differences between AZ-AZ-BNT (n = 220,330) and BNT-BNT-BNT recipients (n = 157,065) for any outcome during a period of Omicron dominance. Interpretation: Among individuals with moderate-to-severe kidney disease, two doses of BNT conferred stronger protection than AZ against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease. A subsequent BNT dose levelled the playing field, emphasising the value of heterologous RNA doses in vulnerable populations. Funding: National Core Studies, Wellcome Trust, MRC, and Health Data Research UK.

8.
BMJ Open ; 13(1): e066164, 2023 01 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36720568

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To characterise factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake among people with kidney disease in England. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, performed with the approval of NHS England. SETTING: Individual-level routine clinical data from 24 million people across GPs in England using TPP software. Primary care data were linked directly with COVID-19 vaccine records up to 31 August 2022 and with renal replacement therapy (RRT) status via the UK Renal Registry (UKRR). PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of adults with stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) or receiving RRT at the start of the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out was identified based on evidence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or inclusion in the UKRR. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Dose-specific vaccine coverage over time was determined from 1 December 2020 to 31 August 2022. Individual-level factors associated with receipt of a 3-dose or 4-dose vaccine series were explored via Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 992 205 people with stage 3-5 CKD or receiving RRT were included. Cumulative vaccine coverage as of 31 August 2022 was 97.5%, 97.0% and 93.9% for doses 1, 2 and 3, respectively, and 81.9% for dose 4 among individuals with one or more indications for eligibility. Delayed 3-dose vaccine uptake was associated with younger age, minority ethnicity, social deprivation and severe mental illness-associations that were consistent across CKD severity subgroups, dialysis patients and kidney transplant recipients. Similar associations were observed for 4-dose uptake. CONCLUSION: Although high primary vaccine and booster dose coverage has been achieved among people with kidney disease in England, key disparities in vaccine uptake remain across clinical and demographic groups and 4-dose coverage is suboptimal. Targeted interventions are needed to identify barriers to vaccine uptake among under-vaccinated subgroups identified in the present study.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Nefropatias , Falência Renal Crônica , Adulto , Humanos , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Retrospectivos , Diálise Renal , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Falência Renal Crônica/terapia
9.
BMJ ; 380: e072808, 2023 03 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36921925

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) covid-19 vaccines during the booster programme in England. DESIGN: Matched cohort study, emulating a comparative effectiveness trial. SETTING: Linked primary care, hospital, and covid-19 surveillance records available within the OpenSAFELY-TPP research platform, covering a period when the SARS-CoV-2 delta and omicron variants were dominant. PARTICIPANTS: 3 237 918 adults who received a booster dose of either vaccine between 29 October 2021 and 25 February 2022 as part of the national booster programme in England and who received a primary course of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1. INTERVENTION: Vaccination with either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 as a booster vaccine dose. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recorded SARS-CoV-2 positive test, covid-19 related hospital admission, covid-19 related death, and non-covid-19 related death at 20 weeks after receipt of the booster dose. RESULTS: 1 618 959 people were matched in each vaccine group, contributing a total 64 546 391 person weeks of follow-up. The 20 week risks per 1000 for a positive SARS-CoV-2 test were 164.2 (95% confidence interval 163.3 to 165.1) for BNT162b2 and 159.9 (159.0 to 160.8) for mRNA-1273; the hazard ratio comparing mRNA-1273 with BNT162b2 was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.95 to 0.96). The 20 week risks per 1000 for hospital admission with covid-19 were 0.75 (0.71 to 0.79) for BNT162b2 and 0.65 (0.61 to 0.69) for mRNA-1273; the hazard ratio was 0.89 (0.82 to 0.95). Covid-19 related deaths were rare: the 20 week risks per 1000 were 0.028 (0.021 to 0.037) for BNT162b2 and 0.024 (0.018 to 0.033) for mRNA-1273; hazard ratio 0.83 (0.58 to 1.19). Comparative effectiveness was generally similar within subgroups defined by the primary course vaccine brand, age, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and clinical vulnerability. Relative benefit was similar when vaccines were compared separately in the delta and omicron variant eras. CONCLUSIONS: This matched observational study of adults estimated a modest benefit of booster vaccination with mRNA-1273 compared with BNT162b2 in preventing positive SARS-CoV-2 tests and hospital admission with covid-19 20 weeks after vaccination, during a period of delta followed by omicron variant dominance.


Assuntos
Vacina BNT162 , COVID-19 , Adulto , Humanos , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Vacina de mRNA-1273 contra 2019-nCoV , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Estudos de Coortes , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Inglaterra/epidemiologia
10.
BMJ ; 378: e071249, 2022 07 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35858698

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To estimate waning of covid-19 vaccine effectiveness over six months after second dose. DESIGN: Cohort study, approved by NHS England. SETTING: Linked primary care, hospital, and covid-19 records within the OpenSAFELY-TPP database. PARTICIPANTS: Adults without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible, excluding care home residents and healthcare professionals. EXPOSURES: People who had received two doses of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 (administered during the national vaccine rollout) were compared with unvaccinated people during six consecutive comparison periods, each of four weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Adjusted hazard ratios for covid-19 related hospital admission, covid-19 related death, positive SARS-CoV-2 test, and non-covid-19 related death comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated people. Waning vaccine effectiveness was quantified as ratios of adjusted hazard ratios per four week period, separately for subgroups aged ≥65 years, 18-64 years and clinically vulnerable, 40-64 years, and 18-39 years. RESULTS: 1 951 866 and 3 219 349 eligible adults received two doses of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, respectively, and 2 422 980 remained unvaccinated. Waning of vaccine effectiveness was estimated to be similar across outcomes and vaccine brands. In the ≥65 years subgroup, ratios of adjusted hazard ratios for covid-19 related hospital admission, covid-19 related death, and positive SARS-CoV-2 test ranged from 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.24)to 1.34 (1.09 to 1.64) per four weeks. Despite waning vaccine effectiveness, rates of covid-19 related hospital admission and death were substantially lower among vaccinated than unvaccinated adults up to 26 weeks after the second dose, with estimated vaccine effectiveness ≥80% for BNT162b2, and ≥75% for ChAdOx1. By weeks 23-26, rates of positive SARS-CoV-2 test in vaccinated people were similar to or higher than in unvaccinated people (adjusted hazard ratios up to 1.72 (1.11 to 2.68) for BNT162b2 and 1.86 (1.79 to 1.93) for ChAdOx1). CONCLUSIONS: The rate at which estimated vaccine effectiveness waned was consistent for covid-19 related hospital admission, covid-19 related death, and positive SARS-CoV-2 test and was similar across subgroups defined by age and clinical vulnerability. If sustained to outcomes of infection with the omicron variant and to booster vaccination, these findings will facilitate scheduling of booster vaccination.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , Vacina BNT162 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 , Estudos de Coortes , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Humanos
11.
BMJ ; 378: e068946, 2022 07 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35858680

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) covid-19 vaccines against infection and covid-19 disease in health and social care workers. DESIGN: Cohort study, emulating a comparative effectiveness trial, on behalf of NHS England. SETTING: Linked primary care, hospital, and covid-19 surveillance records available within the OpenSAFELY-TPP research platform, covering a period when the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was dominant. PARTICIPANTS: 317 341 health and social care workers vaccinated between 4 January and 28 February 2021, registered with a general practice using the TPP SystmOne clinical information system in England, and not clinically extremely vulnerable. INTERVENTIONS: Vaccination with either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 administered as part of the national covid-19 vaccine roll-out. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recorded SARS-CoV-2 positive test, or covid-19 related attendance at an accident and emergency (A&E) department or hospital admission occurring within 20 weeks of receipt of the first vaccine dose. RESULTS: Over the duration of 118 771 person-years of follow-up there were 6962 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 282 covid-19 related A&E attendances, and 166 covid-19 related hospital admissions. The cumulative incidence of each outcome was similar for both vaccines during the first 20 weeks after vaccination. The cumulative incidence of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection 20 weeks after first-dose vaccination with BNT162b2 was 21.7 per 1000 people (95% confidence interval 20.9 to 22.4) and with ChAdOx1 was 23.7 (21.8 to 25.6), representing a difference of 2.04 per 1000 people (0.04 to 4.04). The difference in the cumulative incidence per 1000 people of covid-19 related A&E attendance at 20 weeks was 0.06 per 1000 people (95% CI -0.31 to 0.43). For covid-19 related hospital admission, this difference was 0.11 per 1000 people (-0.22 to 0.44). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of healthcare workers where we would not anticipate vaccine type to be related to health status, we found no substantial differences in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or covid-19 disease up to 20 weeks after vaccination. Incidence dropped sharply at 3-4 weeks after vaccination, and there were few covid-19 related hospital attendance and admission events after this period. This is in line with expected onset of vaccine induced immunity and suggests strong protection against Alpha variant covid-19 disease for both vaccines in this relatively young and healthy population of healthcare workers.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vacinas Virais , Vacina BNT162 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Estudos de Coortes , Pessoal de Saúde , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Apoio Social
12.
JMIR Med Inform ; 8(5): e16452, 2020 May 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32463370

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In the current era of personalized medicine, there is increasing interest in understanding the heterogeneity in disease populations. Cluster analysis is a method commonly used to identify subtypes in heterogeneous disease populations. The clinical data used in such applications are typically multimodal, which can make the application of traditional cluster analysis methods challenging. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to review the research literature on the application of clustering multimodal clinical data to identify asthma subtypes. We assessed common problems and shortcomings in the application of cluster analysis methods in determining asthma subtypes, such that they can be brought to the attention of the research community and avoided in future studies. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Scopus bibliographic databases with terms related to cluster analysis and asthma to identify studies that applied dissimilarity-based cluster analysis methods. We recorded the analytic methods used in each study at each step of the cluster analysis process. RESULTS: Our literature search identified 63 studies that applied cluster analysis to multimodal clinical data to identify asthma subtypes. The features fed into the cluster algorithms were of a mixed type in 47 (75%) studies and continuous in 12 (19%), and the feature type was unclear in the remaining 4 (6%) studies. A total of 23 (37%) studies used hierarchical clustering with Ward linkage, and 22 (35%) studies used k-means clustering. Of these 45 studies, 39 had mixed-type features, but only 5 specified dissimilarity measures that could handle mixed-type features. A further 9 (14%) studies used a preclustering step to create small clusters to feed on a hierarchical method. The original sample sizes in these 9 studies ranged from 84 to 349. The remaining studies used hierarchical clustering with other linkages (n=3), medoid-based methods (n=3), spectral clustering (n=1), and multiple kernel k-means clustering (n=1), and in 1 study, the methods were unclear. Of 63 studies, 54 (86%) explained the methods used to determine the number of clusters, 24 (38%) studies tested the quality of their cluster solution, and 11 (17%) studies tested the stability of their solution. Reporting of the cluster analysis was generally poor in terms of the methods employed and their justification. CONCLUSIONS: This review highlights common issues in the application of cluster analysis to multimodal clinical data to identify asthma subtypes. Some of these issues were related to the multimodal nature of the data, but many were more general issues in the application of cluster analysis. Although cluster analysis may be a useful tool for investigating disease subtypes, we recommend that future studies carefully consider the implications of clustering multimodal data, the cluster analysis process itself, and the reporting of methods to facilitate replication and interpretation of findings.

13.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 14999, 2020 09 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32929109

RESUMO

Asthma preventer medication non-adherence is strongly associated with poor asthma control. One-dimensional measures of adherence may ignore clinically important patterns of medication-taking behavior. We sought to construct a data-driven multi-dimensional typology of medication non-adherence in children with asthma. We analyzed data from an intervention study of electronic inhaler monitoring devices, comprising 211 patients yielding 35,161 person-days of data. Five adherence measures were extracted: the percentage of doses taken, the percentage of days on which zero doses were taken, the percentage of days on which both doses were taken, the number of treatment intermissions per 100 study days, and the duration of treatment intermissions per 100 study days. We applied principal component analysis on the measures and subsequently applied k-means to determine cluster membership. Decision trees identified the measure that could predict cluster assignment with the highest accuracy, increasing interpretability and increasing clinical utility. We demonstrate the use of adherence measures towards a three-group categorization of medication non-adherence, which succinctly describes the diversity of patient medication taking patterns in asthma. The percentage of prescribed doses taken during the study contributed to the prediction of cluster assignment most accurately (84% in out-of-sample data).


Assuntos
Antiasmáticos/uso terapêutico , Asma/tratamento farmacológico , Adesão à Medicação/estatística & dados numéricos , Administração por Inalação , Adolescente , Antiasmáticos/administração & dosagem , Criança , Análise por Conglomerados , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Monitorização Ambulatorial/instrumentação , Nebulizadores e Vaporizadores
14.
BMJ Open ; 9(7): e028375, 2019 07 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31292179

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Asthma is a long-term condition with rapid onset worsening of symptoms ('attacks') which can be unpredictable and may prove fatal. Models predicting asthma attacks require high sensitivity to minimise mortality risk, and high specificity to avoid unnecessary prescribing of preventative medications that carry an associated risk of adverse events. We aim to create a risk score to predict asthma attacks in primary care using a statistical learning approach trained on routinely collected electronic health record data. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will employ machine-learning classifiers (naïve Bayes, support vector machines, and random forests) to create an asthma attack risk prediction model, using the Asthma Learning Health System (ALHS) study patient registry comprising 500 000 individuals across 75 Scottish general practices, with linked longitudinal primary care prescribing records, primary care Read codes, accident and emergency records, hospital admissions and deaths. Models will be compared on a partition of the dataset reserved for validation, and the final model will be tested in both an unseen partition of the derivation dataset and an external dataset from the Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Effectiveness II (SIVE II) study. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Permissions for the ALHS project were obtained from the South East Scotland Research Ethics Committee 02 [16/SS/0130] and the Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care (1516-0489). Permissions for the SIVE II project were obtained from the Privacy Advisory Committee (National Services NHS Scotland) [68/14] and the National Research Ethics Committee West Midlands-Edgbaston [15/WM/0035]. The subsequent research paper will be submitted for publication to a peer-reviewed journal and code scripts used for all components of the data cleaning, compiling, and analysis will be made available in the open source GitHub website (https://github.com/hollytibble).


Assuntos
Asma/epidemiologia , Regras de Decisão Clínica , Aprendizado de Máquina , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Exacerbação dos Sintomas , Teorema de Bayes , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência , Hospitalização , Humanos , Medição de Risco , Escócia/epidemiologia , Máquina de Vetores de Suporte
15.
Pilot Feasibility Stud ; 4: 125, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30026962

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Since the early 2000s, a number of publications in the medical literature have highlighted inadequacies in the design, conduct and reporting of pilot trials. This work led to two notable publications in 2016: a conceptual framework for defining feasibility studies and an extension to the CONSORT 2010 statement to include pilot trials. It was hoped that these publications would educate researchers, leading to better use of pilot trials and thus more rigorously planned and informed randomised controlled trials. The aim of the present work is to evaluate the impact of these publications in the field of physical activity by reviewing the literature pre- and post-2016. This first article presents the pre-2016 review of the reporting and the current editorial policy applied to pilot trials published in physical activity journals. METHODS: Fourteen physical activity journals were screened for pilot and feasibility studies published between 2012 and 2015. The CONSORT 2010 extension to pilot and feasibility studies was used as a framework to assess the reporting quality of the studies. Editors of the eligible physical activity journals were canvassed regarding their editorial policy for pilot and feasibility studies. RESULTS: Thirty-one articles across five journals met the eligibility criteria. These articles fell into three distinct categories: trials that were carried out in preparation for a future definitive trial (23%), trials that evaluated the feasibility of a novel intervention but did not explicitly address a future definitive trial (23%) and trials that did not have any clear objectives to address feasibility (55%). Editors from all five journals stated that they generally do not accept pilot trials, and none gave reference to the CONSORT 2010 extension as a guideline for submissions. CONCLUSION: The result that over half of the studies did not have feasibility objectives is in line with previous research findings, demonstrating that these findings are not being disseminated effectively to researchers in the field of physical activity. The low standard of reporting across most reviewed articles and the neglect of the extended CONSORT 2010 statement by the journal editors highlight the need to actively disseminate these guidelines to ensure their impact.

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