The genomic landscape of 2,023 colorectal cancers.

Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) is a common cause of mortality1, but a comprehensive description of its genomic landscape is lacking2-9. Here we perform whole-genome sequencing of 2,023 CRC samples from participants in the UK 100,000 Genomes Project, thereby providing a highly detailed somatic mutational landscape of this cancer. Integrated analyses identify more than 250 putative CRC driver genes, many not previously implicated in CRC or other cancers, including several recurrent changes outside the coding genome. We extend the molecular pathways involved in CRC development, define four new common subgroups of microsatellite-stable CRC based on genomic features and show that these groups have independent prognostic associations. We also characterize several rare molecular CRC subgroups, some with potential clinical relevance, including cancers with both microsatellite and chromosomal instability. We demonstrate a spectrum of mutational profiles across the colorectum, which reflect aetiological differences. These include the role of Escherichia colipks+ colibactin in rectal cancers10 and the importance of the SBS93 signature11-13, which suggests that diet or smoking is a risk factor. Immune-escape driver mutations14 are near-ubiquitous in hypermutant tumours and occur in about half of microsatellite-stable CRCs, often in the form of HLA copy number changes. Many driver mutations are actionable, including those associated with rare subgroups (for example, BRCA1 and IDH1), highlighting the role of whole-genome sequencing in optimizing patient care.

Germline MBD4 deficiency causes a multi-tumor predisposition syndrome.

We report an autosomal recessive, multi-organ tumor predisposition syndrome, caused by bi-allelic loss-of-function germline variants in the base excision repair (BER) gene MBD4. We identified five individuals with bi-allelic MBD4 variants within four families and these individuals had a personal and/or family history of adenomatous colorectal polyposis, acute myeloid leukemia, and uveal melanoma. MBD4 encodes a glycosylase involved in repair of G:T mismatches resulting from deamination of 5'-methylcytosine. The colorectal adenomas from MBD4-deficient individuals showed a mutator phenotype attributable to mutational signature SBS1, consistent with the function of MBD4. MBD4-deficient polyps harbored somatic mutations in similar driver genes to sporadic colorectal tumors, although AMER1 mutations were more common and KRAS mutations less frequent. Our findings expand the role of BER deficiencies in tumor predisposition. Inclusion of MBD4 in genetic testing for polyposis and multi-tumor phenotypes is warranted to improve disease management.

Optimizing the value of lenalidomide maintenance by extended genetic profiling: an analysis of 556 patients in the Myeloma XI trial.

Prediction of individual patient benefit from lenalidomide (Len) maintenance after autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) remains challenging. Here, we investigated extended molecular profiling for outcome prediction in patients in the National Cancer Research Institute Myeloma XI (MyXI) trial. Patients in the MyXI trial randomized to Len maintenance or observation after ASCT were genetically profiled for t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20), del(1p), gain(1q), and del(17p) and co-occurrence of risk markers was computed. Progression-free survival (PFS), subsequent progression (PFS2), and overall survival (OS) were calculated from maintenance randomization, and groups were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression. Of 556 patients, 17% with double-hit multiple myeloma (MM) (≥2 risk markers), 32% with single-hit (1 risk marker), and 51% without risk markers were analyzed. Single-hit MM derived the highest PFS benefit from Len maintenance, specifically, isolated del(1p), del(17p), and t(4;14), with ∼40-fold, 10-fold, and sevenfold reduced risk of progression or death (PFS), respectively, compared with observation. This benefit translated into improved PFS2 and OS for this group of patients compared with observation; median PFS was 10.9 vs 57.3 months for observation vs Len maintenance. Patients with isolated gain(1q) derived no benefit, and double-hit MM limited benefit (regardless or risk lesions involved) from Len maintenance. Extended genetic profiling identifies patients deriving exceptional benefit from Len maintenance and should be considered for newly diagnosed patients to support management discussions along their treatment pathway. This trial was registered at www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN49407852 as # ISRCTN49407852.

Genetic predisposition to mosaic Y chromosome loss in blood.

Mosaic loss of chromosome Y (LOY) in circulating white blood cells is the most common form of clonal mosaicism1-5, yet our knowledge of the causes and consequences of this is limited. Here, using a computational approach, we estimate that 20% of the male population represented in the UK Biobank study (n = 205,011) has detectable LOY. We identify 156 autosomal genetic determinants of LOY, which we replicate in 757,114 men of European and Japanese ancestry. These loci highlight genes that are involved in cell-cycle regulation and cancer susceptibility, as well as somatic drivers of tumour growth and targets of cancer therapy. We demonstrate that genetic susceptibility to LOY is associated with non-haematological effects on health in both men and women, which supports the hypothesis that clonal haematopoiesis is a biomarker of genomic instability in other tissues. Single-cell RNA sequencing identifies dysregulated expression of autosomal genes in leukocytes with LOY and provides insights into why clonal expansion of these cells may occur. Collectively, these data highlight the value of studying clonal mosaicism to uncover fundamental mechanisms that underlie cancer and other ageing-related diseases.

Elongin C (ELOC/TCEB1)-associated von Hippel-Lindau disease.

Around 95% of patients with clinical features that meet the diagnostic criteria for von Hippel-Lindau disease (VHL) have a detectable inactivating germline variant in VHL. The VHL protein (pVHL) functions as part of the E3 ubiquitin ligase complex comprising pVHL, elongin C, elongin B, cullin 2 and ring box 1 (VCB-CR complex), which plays a key role in oxygen sensing and degradation of hypoxia-inducible factors. To date, only variants in VHL have been shown to cause VHL disease. We undertook trio analysis by whole-exome sequencing in a proband with VHL disease but without a detectable VHL mutation. Molecular studies were also performed on paired DNA extracted from the proband's kidney tumour and blood and bioinformatics analysis of sporadic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) dataset was undertaken. A de novo pathogenic variant in ELOC NM_005648.4(ELOC):c.236A>G (p.Tyr79Cys) gene was identified in the proband. ELOC encodes elongin C, a key component [C] of the VCB-CR complex. The p.Tyr79Cys substitution is a mutational hotspot in sporadic VHL-competent RCC and has previously been shown to mimic the effects of pVHL deficiency on hypoxic signalling. Analysis of an RCC from the proband showed similar findings to that in somatically ELOC-mutated RCC (expression of hypoxia-responsive proteins, no somatic VHL variants and chromosome 8 loss). These findings are consistent with pathogenic ELOC variants being a novel cause for VHL disease and suggest that genetic testing for ELOC variants should be performed in individuals with suspected VHL disease with no detectable VHL variant.

Frequency of pathogenic germline variants in cancer susceptibility genes in 1336 renal cell carcinoma cases.

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) occurs in a number of cancer predisposition syndromes, but the genetic architecture of susceptibility to RCC is not well defined. We investigated the frequency of pathogenic and likely pathogenic (P/LP) germline variants in cancer susceptibility genes (CSGs) within a large series of unselected RCC participants. Whole-genome sequencing data on 1336 RCC participants and 5834 controls recruited to the UK 100 000 Genomes Project, a nationwide multicentre study, was analyzed to identify rare P/LP short variants (single nucleotide variants and insertions/deletions ranging from 1 to 50 base pairs) and structural variants in 121 CSGs. Among 1336 RCC participants [mean: 61.3 years (±12 SD), range: 13-88 years; 64% male], 85 participants [6.4%; 95% CI (5.1, 7.8)] had one or more P/LP germline variant in a wider range of CSGs than previously recognized. A further 64 intragenic variants in CSGs previously associated with RCC were classified as a variant of uncertain significance (VUS) (24 'hot VUSs') and were considered to be of potential clinical relevance as further evaluation might results in their reclassification. Most patients with P variants in well-established CSGs known to predispose to renal cell carcinoma (RCC-CSGs) were aged <50 years. Burden test analysis for filtered variants in CSGs demonstrated a significant excess of CHEK2 variants in European RCC participants compared with the healthy European controls (P = 0.0019). Approximately, 6% of the patients with RCC unselected for family history have a germline variant requiring additional follow-up analysis. To improve diagnostic yield, we suggest expanding the panel of RCC-CSGs tested to include CHEK2 and all SDHx subunits and raising the eligibility criteria for age-based testing.

The impact of risk stratification by polygenic risk and age on breast cancer screening in women aged 40-49 years: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) have been proposed as a mechanism for risk-stratification of screening, increasing efficiency and enabling extension of existing programmes to improve survival in our aging population. We sought to model the impact of three hypothetical programmes of annual breast cancer screening in women aged 40-49 years: screening the PRS-defined high-risk quintile, screening the oldest quintile, and screening the full population. METHODS: In this UK-based modelling study, we used the published estimate of the area under the curve (AUC) of a currently available breast cancer PRS (0·64) to calculate the proportion of cancers captured by the PRS-defined high-risk quintile. We used population size estimates from the Office for National Statistics alongside age-stratified incidence rates of breast cancer, and age or stage-specific survival data from the National Cancer Registry, to build our model. We used stage-specific route-to-diagnosis data to reassign stage-specific survival for screen-detected cancers. Ethics approval was not required. FINDINGS: The PRS-defined high-risk quintile, oldest quintile, and full population capture 37% (n=2811), 29% (n=2198), and 100% (n=7533) of breast cancers occurring in women aged 40-49 each year. Annual screening of each group using digital mammography (sensitivity 70%, specificity 92%) would identify 1968, 1538, and 5273 breast cancers per year, respectively. This corresponds to an improvement in survival of 1·4% (102 deaths averted), 1·1% (80 deaths averted) and 3·6% (274 deaths averted) compared with baseline (no screening). Full population screening would require 4 369 703 mammograms and 354 246 confirmatory tests (breast biopsies) every year, while screening the oldest quintile would require 937 850 mammograms and 76 390 biopsies. Screening the PRS-defined high-risk quintile would require 873 941 mammograms and 71 658 biopsies, in addition to a PRS for all women in the age group (4 369 703). INTERPRETATION: Under favourable assumptions, stratifying screening by PRS rather than age results in modest gains in survival but increases overdiagnoses, logistical complexity, and economic costs. Our study is limited by our modelling parameters (anticipated to maximise survival estimates), including complete uptake of PRS profiling and cancer screening, no interval cancers, and application of screening tools superior to those currently available in the UK. Only with randomised controlled trials, can the uptake, clinical impact, costs, and harms of PRS-stratified screening be definitively assessed. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust.

Somatic PIK3CA Mutations in Sporadic Cerebral Cavernous Malformations.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) are common sporadic and inherited vascular malformations of the central nervous system. Although familial CCMs are linked to loss-of-function mutations in KRIT1 (CCM1), CCM2, or PDCD10 (CCM3), the genetic cause of sporadic CCMs, representing 80% of cases, remains incompletely understood. METHODS: We developed two mouse models harboring mutations identified in human meningiomas with the use of the prostaglandin D2 synthase (PGDS) promoter. We performed targeted DNA sequencing of surgically resected CCMs from patients and confirmed our findings by droplet digital polymerase-chain-reaction analysis. RESULTS: We found that in mice expressing one of two common genetic drivers of meningioma - Pik3ca H1047R or AKT1 E17K - in PGDS-positive cells, a spectrum of typical CCMs develops (in 22% and 11% of the mice, respectively) instead of meningiomas, which prompted us to analyze tissue samples from sporadic CCMs from 88 patients. We detected somatic activating PIK3CA and AKT1 mutations in 39% and 1%, respectively, of lesion tissue from the patients. Only 10% of lesions harbored mutations in the CCM genes. We analyzed lesions induced by the activating mutations Pik3ca H1074R and AKT1 E17K in mice and identified the PGDS-expressing pericyte as the probable cell of origin. CONCLUSIONS: In tissue samples from sporadic CCMs, mutations in PIK3CA were represented to a greater extent than mutations in any other gene. The contribution of somatic mutations in the genes that cause familial CCMs was comparatively small. (Funded by the Fondation ARC pour la Recherche contre le Cancer and others.).

Germline variation in RASAL2 may predict survival in patients with RAS-activated colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic agents that specifically target patients with RAS mutant colorectal cancer (CRC) are needed. We sought potential drug targets by relating genome-wide association study and survival data in patients with advanced CRC profiled for mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway mutations. METHODS: In total, 694 patients from the clinical trials COIN and COIN-B had MAPK-activated CRCs (assigned as KRAS, NRAS, or BRAF mutant). Genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), gene, and gene-set analyses were performed to identify determinants of survival. For rs12028023 in RAS protein activator-like 2 (RASAL2), we studied its effect by MAPK pathway activation status (by comparing to 760 patients without MAPK-activated CRCs), MAPK gene mutation status, surface area of the primary tumor (as a marker of proliferation), and expression on RASAL2. RESULTS: In MAGMA genome-wide analyses, RASAL2 was the most significant gene associated with survival (p = 2.0 × 10-5 ). Patients carrying the minor (A) allele in the lead SNP, rs12028023 in intron 1 of RASAL2, had a median increase in survival of 167 days as compared with patients carrying the major allele. rs12028023 was predictive for survival by MAPK-activation status (pZ-test  = 2.1 × 10-3 ). Furthermore, rs12028023 improved survival in patients with RAS mutant (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.62, 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.5-0.8, p = 3.4 × 10-5 ) but not BRAF mutant (p = 0.87) CRCs. The rs12028023 A-allele was associated with reduced surface area of the primary tumor (Beta = -0.037, standard error [SE] = 0.017, p = 3.2 × 10-2 ) and reduced RASAL2 expression in cultured fibroblasts (p = 1.6 × 10-11 ). CONCLUSION: Our data demonstrate a prognostic role for RASAL2 in patients with MAPK-activated CRCs, with potential as a therapeutic target.

Utility of polygenic risk scores in UK cancer screening: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: It is proposed that, through restriction to individuals delineated as high risk, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might enable more efficient targeting of existing cancer screening programmes and enable extension into new age ranges and disease types. To address this proposition, we present an overview of the performance of PRS tools (ie, models and sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms) alongside harms and benefits of PRS-stratified cancer screening for eight example cancers (breast, prostate, colorectal, pancreas, ovary, kidney, lung, and testicular cancer). METHODS: For this modelling analysis, we used age-stratified cancer incidences for the UK population from the National Cancer Registration Dataset (2016-18) and published estimates of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for current, future, and optimised PRS for each of the eight cancer types. For each of five PRS-defined high-risk quantiles (ie, the top 50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, and 1%) and according to each of the three PRS tools (ie, current, future, and optimised) for the eight cancers, we calculated the relative proportion of cancers arising, the odds ratios of a cancer arising compared with the UK population average, and the lifetime cancer risk. We examined maximal attainable rates of cancer detection by age stratum from combining PRS-based stratification with cancer screening tools and modelled the maximal impact on cancer-specific survival of hypothetical new UK programmes of PRS-stratified screening. FINDINGS: The PRS-defined high-risk quintile (20%) of the population was estimated to capture 37% of breast cancer cases, 46% of prostate cancer cases, 34% of colorectal cancer cases, 29% of pancreatic cancer cases, 26% of ovarian cancer cases, 22% of renal cancer cases, 26% of lung cancer cases, and 47% of testicular cancer cases. Extending UK screening programmes to a PRS-defined high-risk quintile including people aged 40-49 years for breast cancer, 50-59 years for colorectal cancer, and 60-69 years for prostate cancer has the potential to avert, respectively, a maximum of 102, 188, and 158 deaths annually. Unstratified screening of the full population aged 48-49 years for breast cancer, 58-59 years for colorectal cancer, and 68-69 years for prostate cancer would use equivalent resources and avert, respectively, an estimated maximum of 80, 155, and 95 deaths annually. These maximal modelled numbers will be substantially attenuated by incomplete population uptake of PRS profiling and cancer screening, interval cancers, non-European ancestry, and other factors. INTERPRETATION: Under favourable assumptions, our modelling suggests modest potential efficiency gain in cancer case detection and deaths averted for hypothetical new PRS-stratified screening programmes for breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer. Restriction of screening to high-risk quantiles means many or most incident cancers will arise in those assigned as being low-risk. To quantify real-world clinical impact, costs, and harms, UK-specific cluster-randomised trials are required. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust.

Dissecting the pathogenic effects of smoking and its hallmarks in blood DNA methylation on colorectal cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is suggested as a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), but the complex relationship and the potential pathway are not fully understood. METHODS: We performed two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses with genetic instruments for smoking behaviours and related DNA methylation in blood and summary-level GWAS data of colorectal cancer to disentangle the relationship. Colocalization analyses and prospective gene-environment interaction analyses were also conducted as replication. RESULTS: Convincing evidence was identified for the pathogenic effect of smoking initiation on CRC risk and suggestive evidence was observed for the protective effect of smoking cessation in the univariable MR analyses. Multivariable MR analysis revealed that these associations were independent of other smoking phenotypes and alcohol drinking. Genetically predicted methylation at CpG site cg17823346 [ZMIZ1] were identified to decrease CRC risk; while genetically predicted methylation at cg02149899 would increase CRC risk. Colocalization and gene-environment interaction analyses added further evidence to the relationship between epigenetic modification at cg17823346 [ZMIZ1] as well as cg02149899 and CRC risk. DISCUSSION: Our study confirms the significant association between tobacco smoking, DNA methylation and CRC risk and yields a novel insight into the pathogenic effect of tobacco smoking on CRC risk.

Alcohol consumption, DNA methylation and colorectal cancer risk: Results from pooled cohort studies and Mendelian randomization analysis.

Alcohol consumption is thought to be one of the modifiable risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the causality and mechanisms by which alcohol exerts its carcinogenic effect are unclear. We evaluated the association between alcohol consumption and CRC risk by analyzing data from 32 cohort studies and conducted two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to examine for casual relationship. To explore the effect of alcohol related DNA methylation on CRC risk, we performed an epigenetic MR analysis with data from an epigenome-wide association study (EWAS). We additionally performed gene-alcohol interaction analysis nested in the UK Biobank to assess effect modification between alcohol consumption and susceptibility genes. We discovered distinct effects of alcohol on CRC incidence and mortality from the meta-analyses, and genetic predisposition to alcohol drinking was causally associated with an increased CRC risk (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.23-2.61) using two-sample MR approaches. In epigenetic MR analysis, two alcohol-related CpG sites (cg05593667 and cg10045354 mapped to COLCA1/COLCA2 gene) were identified causally associated with an increased CRC risk (P < 8.20 × 10-4 ). Gene-alcohol interaction analysis revealed that carriage of the risk allele of the eQTL (rs3087967) and mQTL (rs11213823) polymorphism of COLCA1/COLCA2 would interact with alcohol consumption to increase CRC risk (PInteraction  = .027 and PInteraction  = .016). Our study provides comprehensive evidence to elucidate the role of alcohol in CRC and highlights that the pathogenic effect of alcohol on CRC could be partly attributed to DNA methylation by regulating the expression of COLCA1/COLCA2 gene.

Bidirectional Mendelian randomisation analysis of the relationship between circulating vitamin D concentration and colorectal cancer risk.

Epidemiological evidence is consistent with a protective effect of vitamin D against colorectal cancer (CRC), but the observed strong associations are open to confounders and potential reverse causation. Previous Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies were limited by poor genetic instruments and inadequate statistical power. Moreover, whether genetically higher CRC risk can influence vitamin D level, namely the reverse causation, still remains unknown. Herein, we report the first bidirectional MR study. We employed 110 newly identified genetic variants as proxies for vitamin D to obtain unconfounded effect estimates on CRC risk in 26 397 CRC cases and 41 481 controls of European ancestry. To test for reserve causation, we estimated effects of 115 CRC-risk variants on vitamin D level among 417 580 participants from the UK Biobank. The causal association was estimated using the random-effect inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method. We found no significant causal effect of vitamin D on CRC risk [IVW estimate odds ratio: 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.88-1.07, P = .565]. Similarly, no significant reverse causal association was identified between genetically increased CRC risk and vitamin D levels (IVW estimate ß: -0.002, 95% CI = -0.008 to 0.004, P = .543). Stratified analysis by tumour sites did not identify significant causal associations in either direction between vitamin D and colon or rectal cancer. Despite the improved statistical power of this study, we found no evidence of causal association of either direction between circulating vitamin D and CRC risk. Significant associations reported by observational studies may be primarily driven by unidentified confounders.

Genetic variation in ST6GAL1 is a determinant of capecitabine and oxaliplatin induced hand-foot syndrome.

Cancer patients treated with capecitabine and oxaliplatin (XELOX) often develop hand-foot syndrome (HFS) or palmar-plantar erythrodysesthesia. Genetic variation in ST6GAL1 is a risk factor for type-2 diabetes (T2D), a disease also associated with HFS. We analysed genome-wide association data for 10 toxicities in advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) patients from the COIN and COIN-B trials. One thousand and fifty-five patients were treated with XELOX ± cetuximab and 745 with folinic acid, fluorouracil and oxaliplatin ± cetuximab. We also analysed rs6783836 in ST6GAL1 with HFS in CRC patients from QUASAR2. Using UK Biobank data, we sought to confirm an association between ST6GAL1 and T2D (17 384 cases, 317 887 controls) and analysed rs6783836 against markers of diabetes, inflammation and psoriasis. We found that 68% of patients from COIN and COIN-B with grade 2-3 HFS responded to treatment as compared to 58% with grade 0-1 HFS (odds ratio [OR] = 1.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.2, P = 2.0 × 10-4 ). HFS was also associated with improved overall survival (hazard ratio = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.84-0.99, P = 4.6 × 10-2 ). rs6783836 at ST6GAL1 was associated with HFS in patients treated with XELOX (OR = 3.1, 95% CI = 2.1-4.6, P = 4.3 × 10-8 ) and was borderline significant in patients receiving capecitabine from QUASAR2, but with an opposite allele effect (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.42-1.03, P = .05). ST6GAL1 was associated with T2D (lead SNP rs3887925, OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.96, P = 1.2 × 10-8 ) and the rs6783836-T allele was associated with lowered HbA1c levels (P = 5.9 × 10-3 ) and lymphocyte count (P = 2.7 × 10-3 ), and psoriasis (P = 7.5 × 10-3 ) beyond thresholds for multiple testing. In conclusion, HFS is a biomarker of treatment outcome and rs6783836 in ST6GAL1 is a potential biomarker for HFS with links to T2D and inflammation.

Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of colorectal cancer risk SNP effects on health outcomes in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Associations between colorectal cancer (CRC) and other health outcomes have been reported, but these may be subject to biases, or due to limitations of observational studies. METHODS: We set out to determine whether genetic predisposition to CRC is also associated with the risk of other phenotypes. Under the phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) and tree-structured phenotypic model (TreeWAS), we studied 334,385 unrelated White British individuals (excluding CRC patients) from the UK Biobank cohort. We generated a polygenic risk score (PRS) from CRC genome-wide association studies as a measure of CRC risk. We performed sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the results and searched the Danish Disease Trajectory Browser (DTB) to replicate the observed associations. RESULTS: Eight PheWAS phenotypes and 21 TreeWAS nodes were associated with CRC genetic predisposition by PheWAS and TreeWAS, respectively. The PheWAS detected associations were from neoplasms and digestive system disease group (e.g. benign neoplasm of colon, anal and rectal polyp and diverticular disease). The results from the TreeWAS corroborated the results from the PheWAS. These results were replicated in the observational data within the DTB. CONCLUSIONS: We show that benign colorectal neoplasms share genetic aetiology with CRC using PheWAS and TreeWAS methods. Additionally, CRC genetic predisposition is associated with diverticular disease.

Prioritisation by FIT to mitigate the impact of delays in the 2-week wait colorectal cancer referral pathway during the COVID-19 pandemic: a UK modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) prioritisation to mitigate the impact of delays in the colorectal cancer (CRC) urgent diagnostic (2-week-wait (2WW)) pathway consequent from the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: We modelled the reduction in CRC survival and life years lost resultant from per-patient delays of 2-6 months in the 2WW pathway. We stratified by age group, individual-level benefit in CRC survival versus age-specific nosocomial COVID-19-related fatality per referred patient undergoing colonoscopy. We modelled mitigation strategies using thresholds of FIT triage of 2, 10 and 150 µg Hb/g to prioritise 2WW referrals for colonoscopy. To construct the underlying models, we employed 10-year net CRC survival for England 2008-2017, 2WW pathway CRC case and referral volumes and per-day-delay HRs generated from observational studies of diagnosis-to-treatment interval. RESULTS: Delay of 2/4/6 months across all 11 266 patients with CRC diagnosed per typical year via the 2WW pathway were estimated to result in 653/1419/2250 attributable deaths and loss of 9214/20 315/32 799 life years. Risk-benefit from urgent investigatory referral is particularly sensitive to nosocomial COVID-19 rates for patients aged >60. Prioritisation out of delay for the 18% of symptomatic referrals with FIT >10 µg Hb/g would avoid 89% of these deaths attributable to presentational/diagnostic delay while reducing immediate requirement for colonoscopy by >80%. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in the pathway to CRC diagnosis and treatment have potential to cause significant mortality and loss of life years. FIT triage of symptomatic patients in primary care could streamline access to colonoscopy, reduce delays for true-positive CRC cases and reduce nosocomial COVID-19 mortality in older true-negative 2WW referrals. However, this strategy offers benefit only in short-term rationalisation of limited endoscopy services: the appreciable false-negative rate of FIT in symptomatic patients means most colonoscopies will still be required.

Epidemiology, genetics and treatment of multiple myeloma and precursor diseases.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy caused by the clonal expansion of plasma cells. The incidence of MM worldwide is increasing with greater than 140 000 people being diagnosed with MM per year. Whereas 5-year survival after a diagnosis of MM has improved from 28% in 1975 to 56% in 2012, the disease remains essentially incurable. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of MM including its epidemiology, genetics and biology. We will also provide an overview of MM management that has led to improvements in survival, including recent changes to diagnosis and therapies. Areas of unmet need include the management of patients with high-risk MM, those with reduced performance status and those refractory to standard therapies. Ongoing research into the biology and early detection of MM as well as the development of novel therapies, such as immunotherapies, has the potential to influence MM practice in the future.

Genome-wide association studies of toxicity to oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy with or without cetuximab in 1800 patients with advanced colorectal cancer.

Chemotherapies administered at normal therapeutic dosages can cause significant side-effects and may result in early treatment discontinuation. Inter-individual variation in toxicity highlights the need for biomarkers to personalise treatment. We sought to identify such biomarkers by conducting 40 genome-wide association studies, together with gene and gene set analyses, for any toxicity and 10 individual toxicities in 1800 patients with advanced colorectal cancer treated with oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy ± cetuximab from the MRC COIN and COIN-B trials (385 patients received FOLFOX, 360 FOLFOX + cetuximab, 707 XELOX and 348 XELOX + cetuximab). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), genes and gene sets that reached genome-wide or suggestive significance were validated in independent patient groups. We found that MROH5 was significantly associated with neutropenia in MAGMA gene analyses in patients treated with XELOX (P = 6.6 × 10-7 ) and was independently validated in those receiving XELOX + cetuximab; pooled P = 3.7 × 10-7 . rs13260246 at 8q21.13 was significantly associated with vomiting in patients treated with XELOX (odds ratio = 5.0, 95% confidence interval = 3.0-8.3, P = 9.8 × 10-10 ) but was not independently replicated. SNPs at 139 loci had suggestive associations for toxicities and lead SNPs at five of these were independently validated (rs6030266 with diarrhoea, rs1546161 with hand-foot syndrome, rs9601722 with neutropenia, rs13413764 with lethargy and rs4600090 with nausea; all with pooled P's < 5.0 × 10-6 ). In conclusion, the association of MROH5 with neutropenia and five other putative biomarkers warrant further investigation for their potential clinical utility. Despite our comprehensive genome-wide analyses of large, well-characterised, clinical trials, we found a lack of common variants with modest effect sizes associated with toxicities.

Searching for causal relationships of glioma: a phenome-wide Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of glioma is poorly understood. Summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to search for glioma risk factors. METHODS: We performed an MR-PheWAS analysing 316 phenotypes, proxied by 8387 genetic variants, and summary genetic data from a GWAS of 12,488 glioma cases and 18,169 controls. Causal effects were estimated under a random-effects inverse-variance-weighted (IVW-RE) model, with robust adjusted profile score (MR-RAPS), weighted median and mode-based estimates computed to assess the robustness of findings. Odds ratios per one standard deviation increase in each phenotype were calculated for all glioma, glioblastoma (GBM) and non-GBM tumours. RESULTS: No significant associations (P < 1.58 × 10-4) were observed between phenotypes and glioma under the IVW-RE model. Suggestive associations (1.58 × 10-4 < P < 0.05) were observed between leukocyte telomere length (LTL) with all glioma (ORSD = 3.91, P = 9.24 × 10-3) and GBM (ORSD = 4.86, P = 3.23 × 10-2), but the association was primarily driven by the TERT variant rs2736100. Serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and plasma HbA1C showed suggestive associations with glioma (ORSD = 1.11, P = 1.39 × 10-2 and ORSD = 1.28, P = 1.73 × 10-2, respectively), both associations being reliant on single genetic variants. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides further insight into the aetiological basis of glioma for which published data have been mixed.

Lack of an association between gallstone disease and bilirubin levels with risk of colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomisation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies of the relationship between gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) have been inconsistent. To address possible confounding and reverse causation, we examine the relationship between these potential risk factors and CRC using Mendelian randomisation (MR). METHODS: We used two-sample MR to examine the relationship between genetic liability to gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with CRC in 26,397 patients and 41,481 controls. We calculated the odds ratio per genetically predicted SD unit increase in log bilirubin levels (ORSD) for CRC and tested for a non-zero causal effect of gallstones on CRC. Sensitivity analysis was applied to identify violations of estimator assumptions. RESULTS: No association between either gallstone disease (P value = 0.60) or circulating levels of bilirubin (ORSD = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.96-1.03, P value = 0.90) with CRC was shown. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the large scale of this study, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between either circulating levels of bilirubin or gallstone disease with risk of developing CRC. While the magnitude of effect suggested by some observational studies can confidently be excluded, we cannot exclude the possibility of smaller effect sizes and non-linear relationships.