Primary care consultations for respiratory tract symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cohort study including 70,000 people in South West England.

BACKGROUND: Primary care consultations for respiratory tract symptoms including identifying and managing COVID-19 during the pandemic have not been characterized. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis using routinely collected records from 70,431 adults aged 18+ in South England within the Electronic Care and Health Information Analytics (CHIA) database. Total volume and type of consultations (face-to-face, home visits, telephone, email/video, or out of hours) for respiratory tract symptoms between 1 January and 31 July 2020 (during the first wave of the pandemic) were compared with the equivalent period in 2019 for the same cohort. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize consultations by sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, and by COVID-19 diagnosis and outcomes (death, hospitalization, and pneumonia). RESULTS: Overall consultations for respiratory tract symptoms increased by 229% during the pandemic compared with the preceding year. This included significant increases in telephone consultations by 250%, a 1,574% increase in video/email consultations, 105% increase in home visits, and 92% increase in face-to-face consultations. Nearly 60% of people who presented with respiratory symptoms were tested for COVID-19 and 16% confirmed or clinically suspected to have the virus. Those with complications including pneumonia, requiring hospitalization, and who died were more likely to be seen in-person. CONCLUSION: During the pandemic, primary care substantially increased consultations for respiratory tract symptoms to identify and manage people with COVID-19. These findings should be balanced against national reports of reduced GP workload for non-COVID care.

Ethnic minority disparities in progression and mortality of pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease: a systematic scoping review.

BACKGROUND: There are a growing number of studies on ethnic differences in progression and mortality for pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), but this literature has yet to be synthesised, particularly for studies on mortality. METHODS: This scoping review synthesized existing literature on ethnic differences in progression and mortality for adults with pre-dialysis CKD, explored factors contributing to these differences, and identified gaps in the literature. A comprehensive search strategy using search terms for ethnicity and CKD was taken to identify potentially relevant studies. Nine databases were searched from 1992 to June 2017, with an updated search in February 2020. RESULTS: 8059 articles were identified and screened. Fifty-five studies (2 systematic review, 7 non-systematic reviews, and 46 individual studies) were included in this review. Most were US studies and compared African-American/Afro-Caribbean and Caucasian populations, and fewer studies assessed outcomes for Hispanics and Asians. Most studies reported higher risk of CKD progression in Afro-Caribbean/African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians, lower risk of mortality for Asians, and mixed findings on risk of mortality for Afro-Caribbean/African-Americans and Hispanics, compared to Caucasians. Biological factors such as hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease contributed to increased risk of progression for ethnic minorities but did not increase risk of mortality in these groups. CONCLUSIONS: Higher rates of renal replacement therapy among ethnic minorities may be partly due to increased risk of progression and reduced mortality in these groups. The review identifies gaps in the literature and highlights a need for a more structured approach by researchers that would allow higher confidence in single studies and better harmonization of data across studies to advance our understanding of CKD progression and mortality.

Type 2 diabetes remission trajectories and variation in risk of diabetes complications: A population-based cohort study.

Biochemical remission of type 2 diabetes is achievable through dietary changes, physical activity and subsequent weight loss. We aim to identify distinct diabetes remission trajectories in a large population-based cohort over seven-years follow-up and to examine associations between remission trajectories and diabetes complications. Group-based trajectory modelling examined longitudinal patterns of HbA1c level (adjusting for remission status) over time. Multivariable Cox models quantified the association between each remission trajectory and microvascular complications, macrovascular complications, cardiovascular (CVD) events and all-cause mortality. Four groups were assigned. Group 1 (8,112 [13.5%]; achieving HbA1c <48 mmol/mol (6.5%) followed by increasing HbA1c levels); Group 2 (6,369 [10.6%]; decreasing HbA1c levels >48 mmol/mol (6.5%)); Group 3 (36,557 [60.6%]; stable high HbA1c levels); Group 4 (9,249 [15.3%]; stable low HbA1c levels (<48mmol/mol or <6.5%)). Compared to Group 3, Groups 1 and 4 had lower risk of microvascular complications (aHRs (95% CI): 0.65 (0.61-0.70), p-value <0.001;0.59 (0.55-0.64) p-value<0.001, respectively)), macrovascular complications (aHRs (95% CI): 0.83 (0.75-0.92), p-value<0.001; 0.66 (0.61-0.71), p-value<0.001) and CVD events (aHRs (95% CI): 0.74(0.67-0.83), p-value<0.001; 0.67(0.61-0.73), p-vlaue<0.001). Risk of CVD outcomes were similar for Groups 2 and 3. Compared to Group 3, Group 1 (aHR: 0.82(95% CI: 0.76-0.89)) had lower risk of mortality, but Group 4 had higher risk of mortality (aHR: 1.11(95% CI: 1.03-1.19)). Risk of CVD outcomes vary by pattern of remission over time, with lowest risk for those in remission longer. People who achieve remission, even for shorter periods of time, continue to benefit from this lower exposure to hyperglycaemia, which may, in turn, lower the risk of CVD outcomes including mortality.

Change in treatment burden among people with multimorbidity: a follow-up survey.

BACKGROUND: Treatment burden is the effort required of patients to look after their health and the impact this has on their functioning and wellbeing. Little is known about change in treatment burden over time for people with multimorbidity. AIM: To quantify change in treatment burden, determine factors associated with this change, and evaluate a revised single-item measure for high treatment burden in older adults with multimorbidity. DESIGN AND SETTING: A 2.5-year follow-up of a cross-sectional postal survey via six general practices in Dorset, England. METHOD: GP practices identified participants of the baseline survey. Data on treatment burden (measured using the Multimorbidity Treatment Burden Questionnaire; MTBQ), sociodemographics, clinical variables, health literacy, and financial resource were collected. Change in treatment burden was described, and associations assessed using regression models. Diagnostic test performance metrics evaluated the revised single-item measure relative to the MTBQ. RESULTS: In total, 300 participants were recruited (77.3% response rate). Overall, there was a mean increase of 2.6 (standard deviation 11.2) points in treatment burden global score. Ninety-eight (32.7%) and 53 (17.7%) participants experienced an increase and decrease, respectively, in treatment burden category. An increase in treatment burden was associated with having >5 long-term conditions (adjusted ß 8.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.20 to 12.32) and living >10 minutes (versus ≤10 minutes) from the GP (adjusted ß 3.88, 95% CI = 1.32 to 6.43), particularly for participants with limited health literacy (mean difference: adjusted ß 9.59, 95% CI = 2.17 to 17.00). The single-item measure performed moderately (sensitivity 55.7%; specificity 92.4%. CONCLUSION: Treatment burden changes over time. Improving access to primary care, particularly for those living further away from services, and enhancing health literacy may mitigate increases in burden.

Understanding GPs' views and experiences of using clinical prediction rules in the management of respiratory infections: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) account for 60% of antibiotic prescribing in primary care. Several clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been developed to help reduce unnecessary prescribing for RTIs, but there is a lack of studies exploring whether or how these CPRs are being used in UK general practice. AIM: To explore UK GPs' views and experiences with regards to RTI CPRs, and to identify barriers and facilitators to their use in practice. DESIGN & SETTING: A qualitative analysis of interviews with in-hours GPs working in the South and South West of England. METHOD: Semi-structured qualitative telephone interviews were conducted, digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using an inductive thematic approach. Patient and public involvement representatives contributed to study design and interpretation of findings. RESULTS: Thirty-two GPs were interviewed. Some CPRs were more commonly used than others. Participants used CPRs to facilitate patient-clinician discussion, confirm and support their decision, and document the consultation. GPs also highlighted concerns including lack of time, inability of CPRs to incorporate patient complexity, a shift in focus from the patient during consultations, and limited use in remote consultation (during the COVID-19 pandemic). CONCLUSION: This study highlights the need for user-friendly CPRs that are readily integrated into computer systems, and easily embedded into routine practice to complement clinical decision-making. Existing CPRs need to be validated for other populations where demographics and clinical characteristics may differ, as well different settings including remote consultations and self-assessment.

Change in treatment burden among people with multimorbidity: Protocol of a follow up survey and development of efficient measurement tools for primary care.

BACKGROUND: Treatment burden is the effort required of patients to look after their health and the impact this has on their functioning and wellbeing. It is likely treatment burden changes over time as circumstances change for patients and health services. However, there are a lack of population-level studies of treatment burden change and factors associated with this change over time. Furthermore, there are currently no practical screening tools for treatment burden in time-pressured clinical settings or at population level. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a three-year follow-up of a cross-sectional survey of 723 people with multimorbidity (defined as three or more long-term conditions; LTCs) registered at GP practices in in Dorset, England. The survey will repeat collection of information on treatment burden (using the 10-item Multimorbidity Treatment Burden Questionnaire (MTBQ) and a novel single-item screening tool), sociodemographics, medications, LTCs, health literacy and financial resource, as at baseline. Descriptive statistics will be used to compare change in treatment burden since the baseline survey in 2019 and associations of treatment burden change will be assessed using regression methods. Diagnostic test accuracy metrics will be used to evaluate the single-item treatment burden screening tool using the MTBQ as the gold-standard. Routine primary care data (including demographics, medications, LTCs, and healthcare usage data) will be extracted from medical records for consenting participants. A forward-stepwise, likelihood-ratio logistic regression model building approach will be employed in order to assess the utility of routine data metrics in quantifying treatment burden in comparison to self-reported treatment burden using the MTBQ. IMPACT: To the authors' knowledge, this will be the first study investigating longitudinal aspects of treatment burden. Findings will improve understanding of the extent to which treatment burden changes over time for people with multimorbidity and factors contributing to this change, as well as allowing better identification of people at risk of high treatment burden.

The association of socioeconomic status with incidence and outcomes of acute kidney injury.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Socioeconomic status may be negatively associated with AKI as some risk factors for AKI such as chronic kidney disease, diabetes and heart failure are socially distributed. This study explored the socioeconomic gradient of the incidence and mortality of AKI, after adjusting for important mediators such as comorbidities. METHODS: Linked primary care and laboratory data from two large acute hospitals in the south of England, sourced from the Care and Health Information Analytics database, were used to identify AKI cases over a 1-year period (2017-18) from a population of 580 940 adults. AKI was diagnosed from serum creatinine patterns using a Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes-based definition. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities and prescribed medication (in incidence analyses) and AKI severity (in mortality analyses), were used to assess the association of area deprivation (using Index of Multiple Deprivation for place of residence) with AKI risk and all-cause mortality over a median (interquartile range) of 234 days (119-356). RESULTS: Annual incidence rate of first AKI was 1726/100 000 (1.7%). The risk of AKI was higher in the most deprived compared with the least deprived areas [adjusted odds ratio = 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59-2.01 and 1.33, 95% CI 1.03-1.72 for <65 and >65 year old, respectively] after controlling for age, sex, comorbidities and prescribed medication. Adjusted risk of mortality post first AKI was higher in the most deprived areas (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.20, 95% CI 1.07-1.36). CONCLUSIONS: Social deprivation was associated with higher incidence of AKI and poorer survival even after adjusting for the higher presence of comorbidities. Such social inequity should be considered when devising strategies to prevent AKI and improve care for AKI patients.

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in adults in England: comparison of nationally representative cross-sectional surveys from 2003 to 2016.

OBJECTIVES: To identify recent trends in chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence in England and explore their association with changes in sociodemographic, behavioural and clinical factors. DESIGN: Pooled cross-sectional analysis. SETTING: Health Survey for England 2003, 2009/2010 combined and 2016. PARTICIPANTS: 17 663 individuals (aged 16+) living in private households. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and albuminuria (measured by albumin-creatinine ratio) during 2009/2010 and 2016 and trends in eGFR between 2003 and 2016. eGFR was estimated using serum creatinine Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equations. RESULTS: GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 prevalence was 7.7% (95% CI 7.1% to 8.4%), 7.0% (6.4% to 7.7%) and 7.3%(6.5% to 8.2%) in 2003, 2009/2010 and 2016, respectively. Albuminuria prevalence was 8.7% (8.1% to 9.5%) in 2009/2010 and 9.8% (8.7% to 10.9%) in 2016. Prevalence of CKD G1-5 (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or albuminuria) was 12.6% (11.8% to 13.4%) in 2009/2010 and 13.9% (12.8% to 15.2%) in 2016. Prevalence of diabetes and obesity increased during 2003-2016 while prevalence of hypertension and smoking fell. The age-adjusted and gender-adjusted OR of eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for 2016 versus 2009/2010 was 0.99 (0.82 to 1.18) and fully adjusted OR was 1.13 (0.93 to 1.37). There was no significant period effect on the prevalence of albuminuria or CKD G1-5 from 2009/2010 to 2016 in age and gender or fully adjusted models. CONCLUSION: The fall in eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 seen from 2003 to 2009/2010 did not continue to 2016. However, absolute CKD burden is likely to rise with population growth and ageing, particularly if diabetes prevalence continues to increase. This highlights the need for greater CKD prevention efforts and continued surveillance.

Patients' and kidney care team's perspectives of treatment burden and capacity in older people with chronic kidney disease: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is often a multimorbid condition and progression to more severe disease is commonly associated with increased management requirements, including lifestyle change, more medication and greater clinician involvement. This study explored patients' and kidney care team's perspectives of the nature and extent of this workload (treatment burden) and factors that support capacity (the ability to manage health) for older individuals with CKD. DESIGN: Qualitative semistructured interview and focus group study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Adults (aged 60+) with predialysis CKD stages G3-5 (identified in two general practitioner surgeries and two renal clinics) and a multiprofessional secondary kidney care team in the UK. RESULTS: 29 individuals and 10 kidney team members were recruited. Treatment burden themes were: (1) understanding CKD, its treatment and consequences, (2) adhering to treatments and management and (3) interacting with others (eg, clinicians) in the management of CKD. Capacity themes were: (1) personal attributes (eg, optimism, pragmatism), (2) support network (family/friends, service providers), (3) financial capacity, environment (eg, geographical distance to unit) and life responsibilities (eg, caring for others). Patients reported poor provision of CKD information and lack of choice in treatment, whereas kidney care team members discussed health literacy issues. Patients reported having to withdraw from social activities and loss of employment due to CKD, which further impacted their capacity. CONCLUSION: Improved understanding of and measures to reduce the treatment burden (eg, clear information, simplified medication, joined up care, free parking) associated with CKD in individuals as well as assessment of their capacity and interventions to improve capacity (social care, psychological support) will likely improve patient experience and their engagement with kidney care services.

Predicting Risk of Recurrent Acute Kidney Injury: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Although the epidemiology of acute kidney injury (AKI) has been well described, less is known about recurrent AKI (r-AKI). We undertook a systematic review to identify incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of r-AKI. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane, Web of Science were searched, from inception to December 2017, for quantitative studies on adults with AKI, where follow-up included -reporting of r-AKI. Two reviewers independently identified studies and assessed study quality. SUMMARY: From 2,824 citations, 10 cohort studies met inclusion criteria (total patients n = 538,667). There were 2 distinct set of studies; 4 studies assessed r-AKI within the same hospital admission (most were intensive care unit [ICU] patients) and 6 studies assessed postdischarge r-AKI. The median percentage of people developing r-AKI within the same hospital admission was 23.4% (IQR 20.3-27.2%) and postdischarge r-AKI was 31.3% (IQR 26.4-33.7%). A higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation score was associated with increased risk of r-AKI within the same hospital admission in ICU patients. Cardiovascular disease and AKI severity were associated with increased risk of postdischarge r-AKI. R-AKI (within same admission and postdischarge) was associated with worse survival. It was not possible to pool results due to methodological differences across studies, such as varying definitions for AKI and r-AKI, varying length of follow-up and effect measures. Key messages: More representative population-based studies with robust assessment of predictors and consensus definition of r-AKI are needed to identify risk factors and develop risk stratification tools to reduce recurrence and improve outcomes. Systematic Review Registration: CRD42017082668.

Acute kidney injury in the UK: a replication cohort study of the variation across three regional populations.

OBJECTIVES: A rapid growth in the reported rates of acute kidney injury (AKI) has led to calls for greater attention and greater resources for improving care. However, the reported incidence of AKI also varies more than tenfold between previous studies. Some of this variation is likely to stem from methodological heterogeneity. This study explores the extent of cross-population variation in AKI incidence after minimising heterogeneity. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study analysing data from electronic health records from three regions in the UK through shared analysis code and harmonised methodology. SETTING: Three populations from Scotland, Wales and England covering three time periods: Grampian 2003, 2007 and 2012; Swansea 2007; and Salford 2012. PARTICIPANTS: All residents in each region, aged 15 years or older. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Population incidence of AKI and AKI phenotype (severity, recovery, recurrence). Determined using shared biochemistry-based AKI episode code and standardised by age and sex. RESULTS: Respectively, crude AKI rates (per 10 000/year) were 131, 138, 139, 151 and 124 (p=0.095), and after standardisation for age and sex: 147, 151, 146, 146 and 142 (p=0.257) for Grampian 2003, 2007 and 2012; Swansea 2007; and Salford 2012. The pattern of variation in crude rates was robust to any modifications of the AKI definition. Across all populations and time periods, AKI rates increased substantially with age from ~20 to ~550 per 10 000/year among those aged <40 and ≥70 years. CONCLUSION: When harmonised methods are used and age and sex differences are accounted for, a similar high burden of AKI is consistently observed across different populations and time periods (~150 per 10 000/year). There are particularly high rates of AKI among older people. Policy-makers should be careful not draw simplistic assumptions about variation in AKI rates based on comparisons that are not rigorous in methodological terms.