The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning. METHODS: We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results. RESULTS: We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

Using a Robotic-Assisted Approach for Stereotactic Laser Ablation Corpus Callosotomy: A Technical Report.

BACKGROUND: Corpus callosotomy for medically intractable epilepsy is an effective ablative procedure traditionally achieved using either standard open craniotomy or with less-invasive approaches. Advances in robotic-assisted stereotactic guidance for neurosurgery can be applied for LITT for corpus callosotomy. CLINICAL PRESENTATIONS: Two patients were included in this study. One was a 25-year-old female patient with extensive bi-hemispheric malformations of cortical development and medically refractory epilepsy, and the other was an 18-year-old male with medically refractory epilepsy and atonic seizures, who underwent a complete corpus callosotomy using robotic-assisted stereotactic guidance for LITT. RESULTS: Both patients underwent successful intended corpus callosotomy with volumetric analysis demonstrating a length disconnection of 74% and a volume disconnection of 55% for patient 1 and a length disconnection of 83% and a volume disconnection of 33% for patient 2. Postoperatively, both patients had clinical reductions in seizure. CONCLUSION: Our experience demonstrates that robotic guidance systems can safely and effectively be adapted for minimally invasive LITT corpus callosotomy.

Mortality Among Persons Entering HIV Care Compared With the General U.S. Population : An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding advances in the care and treatment of adults with HIV as well as remaining gaps requires comparing differences in mortality between persons entering care for HIV and the general population. OBJECTIVE: To assess the extent to which mortality among persons entering HIV care in the United States is elevated over mortality among matched persons in the general U.S. population and trends in this difference over time. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Thirteen sites from the U.S. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PARTICIPANTS: 82 766 adults entering HIV clinical care between 1999 and 2017 and a subset of the U.S. population matched on calendar time, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county using U.S. mortality and population data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. MEASUREMENTS: Five-year all-cause mortality, estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. RESULTS: Overall 5-year mortality among persons entering HIV care was 10.6%, and mortality among the matched U.S. population was 2.9%, for a difference of 7.7 (95% CI, 7.4 to 7.9) percentage points. This difference decreased over time, from 11.1 percentage points among those entering care between 1999 and 2004 to 2.7 percentage points among those entering care between 2011 and 2017. LIMITATION: Matching on available covariates may have failed to account for differences in mortality that were due to sociodemographic factors rather than consequences of HIV infection and other modifiable factors. CONCLUSION: Mortality among persons entering HIV care decreased dramatically between 1999 and 2017, although those entering care remained at modestly higher risk for death in the years after starting care than comparable persons in the general U.S. population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

CD4 Count at Entry into Care and at Antiretroviral Therapy Prescription among Adults with Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States, 2005-2018.

From 2005 to 2018, among 32013 adults with human immunodeficiency virus entering care, median time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) prescription declined from 69 to 6 days, CD4 count at entry into care increased from 300 to 362 cells/µL, and CD4 count at ART prescription increased from 160 to 364 cells/µL.

HIV Screening Among Gonorrhea-Diagnosed Individuals; Baltimore, Maryland; April 2015 to April 2019.

BACKGROUND: Individuals diagnosed with gonorrhea are at elevated risk for HIV. Per US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guideline, individuals being evaluated for gonorrhea should be screened for HIV concurrently. There is limited information on HIV screening among gonorrhea-diagnosed individuals across different health care settings. Our objective was to identify potential gaps in HIV screening among gonorrhea-diagnosed individuals in Baltimore City, Maryland. METHODS: We used Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance Network project data collected on a random sample of all gonorrhea diagnoses reported to the health department between April 2015 and April 2019. Individuals with known HIV diagnoses were excluded. HIV screening was confirmed through surveys administered to the gonorrhea-diagnosing provider. HIV screening across groups was assessed using Poisson regression models with robust SEs. We examined those with and without recent (≤12 months) sexually transmitted infection (STI) history separately. RESULTS: Among 2830 gonorrhea-diagnosed individuals with completed Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance Network provider surveys, less than half (35.2% with and 44.8% without recent STI history) received concurrent HIV screening. HIV screening was 73% less prevalent among those diagnosed in emergency departments/urgent care centers/hospitals versus sexual health clinics (with and without recent STI history: adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.27 [95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.39]; adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.27 [0.23-0.33]), controlling for diagnosis year, sex, race/ethnicity, age, infection site, and insurance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a considerable gap in HIV screening among individuals at elevated risk for HIV acquisition in Baltimore City, particularly among those diagnosed in emergency departments/urgent care centers/hospital settings. Future work should focus on identifying provider-level barriers to concurrent HIV/STI screening to inform provider education programs.

Life-Expectancy Disparities Among Adults With HIV in the United States and Canada: The Impact of a Reduction in Drug- and Alcohol-Related Deaths Using the Lives Saved Simulation Model.

Improvements in life expectancy among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States and Canada might differ among key populations. Given the difference in substance use among key populations and the current opioid epidemic, drug- and alcohol-related deaths might be contributing to the disparities in life expectancy. We sought to estimate life expectancy at age 20 years in key populations (and their comparison groups) in 3 time periods (2004-2007, 2008-2011, and 2012-2015) and the potential increase in expected life expectancy with a simulated 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related deaths using the novel Lives Saved Simulation model. Among 92,289 PLWH, life expectancy increased in all key populations and comparison groups from 2004-2007 to 2012-2015. Disparities in survival of approximately a decade persisted among black versus white men who have sex with men and people with (vs. without) a history of injection drug use. A 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related mortality would have the greatest life-expectancy benefit for black men who have sex with men, white women, and people with a history of injection drug use. Our findings suggest that preventing drug- and alcohol-related deaths among PLWH could narrow disparities in life expectancy among some key populations, but other causes of death must be addressed to further narrow the disparities.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnosis After a Syphilis, Gonorrhea, or Repeat Diagnosis Among Males Including non-Men Who Have Sex With Men: What Is the Incidence?

BACKGROUND: The release of the first drug for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in 2012 marked the beginning of a new era of HIV prevention. Although PrEP is highly efficacious, identifying and ultimately increasing uptake among the highest risk male subgroups remains a challenge. METHODS: Public health surveillance data from 2009 to 2016 was used to evaluate the risk of an HIV diagnosis after a syphilis (ie, primary, secondary, or early latent), gonorrhea, and repeat diagnoses among urban males, including men who have sex with men (MSM) and non-MSM in Baltimore City. RESULTS: Of the 1531 males with 898 syphilis diagnoses and 1243 gonorrhea diagnoses, 6.8% (n = 104) were subsequently diagnosed with HIV. Within 2 years, 1 in 10 syphilis or gonorrhea diagnoses were followed by an HIV diagnosis among MSM, and 1 in 50 syphilis or gonorrhea diagnoses were followed by an HIV diagnosis among non-MSM. Among non-MSM with gonorrhea, the rate of HIV incidence was 5.36 (95% confidence interval, 2.37-12.14) times higher in those with (vs. without) a subsequent syphilis diagnosis or gonorrhea diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Local health care providers should offer PrEP to MSM diagnosed with syphilis or gonorrhea and to non-MSM with a previous gonorrhea diagnosis at time of a syphilis or gonorrhea diagnosis. The high proportion and short time to an HIV diagnosis among MSM after a syphilis or gonorrhea diagnosis suggest immediate PrEP initiation.

Socioeconomic Status and Foodborne Pathogens in Connecticut, USA, 2000-2011(1).

Foodborne pathogens cause >9 million illnesses annually. Food safety efforts address the entire food chain, but an essential strategy for preventing foodborne disease is educating consumers and food preparers. To better understand the epidemiology of foodborne disease and to direct prevention efforts, we examined incidence of Salmonella infection, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infection, and hemolytic uremic syndrome by census tract-level socioeconomic status (SES) in the Connecticut Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network site for 2000-2011. Addresses of case-patients were geocoded to census tracts and linked to census tract-level SES data. Higher census tract-level SES was associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, regardless of serotype; hemolytic uremic syndrome; salmonellosis in persons ≥5 years of age; and some Salmonella serotypes. A reverse association was found for salmonellosis in children <5 years of age and for 1 Salmonella serotype. These findings will inform education and prevention efforts as well as further research.

Food Insecurity Is High in a Multi-Site Cohort of Transgender Women Vulnerable to or Living with HIV in the Eastern and Southern United States: Baseline Findings from the LITE Cohort.

The prevalence and correlates of food insecurity-the unavailability of food and limited access to it-have not been adequately considered among transgender women (TW), particularly alongside other health-related conditions burdening this population, such as HIV infection. This study examined the prevalence and correlates of food insecurity among TW. Between 2018 and 2020, 1590 TW in the Eastern and Southern U.S. completed a multi-site baseline assessment (socio-behavioral survey and HIV testing). Descriptive statistics were calculated and multivariable Poisson models with robust error variance were used to estimate prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals for correlates of food insecurity (dichotomized as sometimes-to-always vs. seldom-to-never running out of food). Eighteen percent of TW were living with HIV and nearly half of participants (44%) reported food insecurity. Correlates of food insecurity included being Black, multiracial, or another race/ethnicity; having < college education, low income, unstable housing, and high anticipated discrimination; and a history of sex work and sexual violence (all p < 0.05). Food insecurity was highly prevalent among TW. Current programs to provide food support do not adequately meet the needs of TW. HIV pr evention and care programs may benefit from addressing food insecurity.

Characterizing Arrest and Incarceration in a Prospective Cohort of Transgender Women.

This study characterized arrest, incarceration, and risk factors for incident incarceration among transgender women (TW) in the northeastern and southern United States. During semiannual study visits over 24 months in a multicenter cohort study, TW completed HIV testing and self-administered surveys. In total, 1571 TW completed baseline survey; 1,312 HIV-negative TW enrolled in the cohort and contributed 2134.3 person-years to the analysis. At baseline, 37% had been arrested and 21% had been incarcerated. Incident incarceration was 23.4 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.9-29.9). Sex work was significantly associated with baseline and incident incarceration (p < .01). A history of incarceration at enrollment was the strongest predictor of incident incarceration (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.99; 95% CI: 3.43-14.24). Living in the South (aOR 2.69, 95% CI: 1.22-5.93), income below the federal poverty level (aOR 2.65 95% CI: 3.43-14.24), and having a recent partner who had been incarcerated (aOR 2.62, 95% CI: 1.20-5.69) also increased the odds of incident incarceration in multivariable modeling. Structural interventions to reduce poverty and decriminalize sex work have the potential to reduce incarceration rates among TW.

HIV incidence and mortality in transgender women in the eastern and southern USA: a multisite cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological monitoring of HIV among transgender women is minimal despite prioritisation of this group in the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy (2022-2025). We aimed to estimate HIV incidence in a multisite cohort of transgender women in the eastern and southern USA. Participant deaths were identified during follow-up; thus, we felt it was an ethical imperative to report mortality alongside HIV incidence. METHODS: In this study, we established a multisite cohort across two modes: a site-based, technology-enhanced mode in six cities (Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Miami, New York City, and Washington, DC) and an exclusively digital mode that spanned 72 eastern and southern US cities that matched the six site-based cities based on population size and demographics. Trans feminine adults (≥18 years) who were not living with HIV were eligible and followed up for at least 24 months. Participants completed surveys and oral fluid HIV testing with clinical confirmation. We ascertained deaths through community and clinical sources. We estimated HIV incidence and mortality using the number of HIV seroconversions and deaths, respectively, divided by person-years accumulated from enrolment. Logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of HIV seroconversion (primary outcome) or death. FINDINGS: Between March 22, 2018, and Aug 31, 2020, we enrolled 1312 participants with 734 (56%) in site-based and 578 (44%) in digital modes. At the 24-month assessment, 633 (59%) of 1076 eligible participants consented to extending participation. 1084 (83%) of 1312 participants were retained at this analysis based on the study definition of loss to follow-up. As of May 25, 2022, the cohort participants had contributed 2730 accumulated person-years to the analytical dataset. Overall HIV incidence was 5·5 (95% CI 2·7-8·3) per 1000 person-years and incidence was higher among Black participants and those living in the south. Nine participants died during the study. The overall mortality rate was 3·3 (95% CI 1·5-6·3) per 1000 person-years, and the rate was higher among Latinx participants. Identical predictors of HIV seroconversion and death included residence in southern cities, sexual partnerships with cisgender men, and use of stimulants. Participation in the digital cohort and seeking care for gender transition were inversely associated with both outcomes. INTERPRETATION: As HIV research and interventions are increasingly delivered online, differences by mode highlight the need for continued community and location-based efforts to reach the most marginalised transgender women. Our findings underscore community calls for interventions that address social and structural contexts that affect survival and other health concerns alongside HIV prevention. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Impact of subgroup-specific heterogeneities and dynamic changes in mortality rates on forecasted population size, deaths, and age distribution of persons receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States: a computer simulation study.

PURPOSE: Model-based forecasts of population size, deaths, and age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) are helpful for public health and clinical services planning but are influenced by subgroup-specific heterogeneities and changes in mortality rates. METHODS: Using an agent-based simulation of PWH in the United States, we examined the impact of distinct approaches to parametrizing mortality rates on forecasted epidemiology of PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). We first estimated mortality rates among (1) all PWH, (2) sex-specific, (3) sex-and-race/ethnicity-specific, and (4) sex-race/ethnicity-and-HIV-acquisition-risk-specific subgroups. We then assessed each scenario by (1) allowing unrestricted reductions in age-specific mortality rates over time and (2) restricting the mortality rates among PWH to subgroup-specific mortality thresholds from the general population. RESULTS: Among the eight scenarios examined, those lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates forecasted the lowest number of deaths among all PWH and 9 of the 15 subgroups through 2030. The forecasted overall number and age distribution of people with a history of injection drug use were sensitive to inclusion of subgroup-specific mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Our results underscore the potential risk of underestimating future deaths by models lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities in mortality rates, and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates.

Observed CD4 counts at entry into HIV care and at antiretroviral therapy prescription by age in the USA, 2004-18: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Adults aged 50 years or older comprise a majority of people with HIV in the USA. Our objective was to describe observed differences by age in CD4 count at entry into HIV care, timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) prescription, and CD4 count at time of ART prescription before (2004-11) and during (2012-18) the current era of universal treatment. METHODS: For this descriptive study, we calculated median (IQR) CD4 count at entry into care, days from entry into care to ART prescription, and CD4 count at time of ART prescription among patients enrolled in US-based clinical cohorts of the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD; see appendix). We excluded participants with no CD4 count recorded at entry into care, medical records that suggested previous ART use, or previous AIDS diagnosis. All calculations were stratified by age (≥50 and 18-50 years) and calendar year. FINDINGS: Of 35 293 ART-naive adult participants entering care between Jan 1, 2004 and Dec 31, 2018, 5794 (16%) were women and 29 499 (84%) were men; 15817 (45%) were Black, 11566 (33%) were White, 5538 (16%) were Hispanic (any race), 737 (2%) were Asian or Pacific Islander, 152 (0.4%) were Indigenous, and 98 (0.3%) were multiracial. Median age at entry into care was 39 years (IQR 29-49); 8004 (23%) were aged 50 years or older. Of 29 141 participants initially prescribed ART, 7274 (25%) were aged 50 years or older. From 2004 to 2018, median CD4 count at entry into care increased from 228 cells per µL (IQR 80-422) to 295 cells per µL (134-489) among adults aged 50 years and older, and from 297 cells per µL (119-480) to 378 cells per µL (202-564) among adults younger than 50 years. Median days from entry into care to ART prescription declined from 56 (IQR 17-658) to 6 (0-15) among adults older than 50 years, and from 61 (17-509) to 6 (0-16) among adults younger than 50 years. Median CD4 count at time of ART prescription increased from 139 cells per µL (IQR 59-257) to 311 cells per µL (137-504) among adults aged 50 years or older, and from 166 cells per µL (49-287) to 377 cells per µL (198-564) among adults younger than 50 years. INTERPRETATION: Before the release of universal treatment guidelines by the US Department of Health and Human Services in 2012, median time to ART prescription was already falling, leading to increases in median CD4 count at ART prescription for both age groups; both measures continued to improve in the treat-all era. However, median CD4 counts, both at entry into care and at ART prescription, among adults aged 50 years and older were lower than those of adults younger than 50 years throughout the study period. Furthermore, even into the treat-all era, over half of adults aged 50 years and older entered care with CD4 counts of less than 350 cells per µL, potentially because of factors including immunosenescence, delayed HIV diagnosis, and late presentation to care. Given that age-related immunological changes might not be fully avoidable, targeted strategies for increasing HIV risk awareness, routine testing, and immediate linkage to HIV care at diagnosis are particularly essential for this population. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health grant U01AI069918.

Delayed presentation of HIV among older individuals: a growing problem.

Late presentation for care is a major impediment to the prevention and effective treatment of HIV infection. Older individuals are at increased risk of late presentation, represent a growing proportion of people with late presentation, and might require interventions tailored to their age group. We provide a summary of the literature published globally between 2016-21 (reporting data from 1984-2018) and quantify the association of age with delayed presentation. Using the most common definitions of late presentation and older age from these earlier studies, we update this work with data from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium, focusing on data from 2000-19, encompassing four continents. Finally, we consider how late presentation among older individuals might be more effectively addressed as electronic medical records become widely adopted.

Projecting the age-distribution of men who have sex with men receiving HIV treatment in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The age-distribution of men who have sex with men (MSM) continues to change in the 'Treat-All' era as effective test-and-treat programs target key-populations. However, the nature of these changes and potential racial heterogeneities remain uncertain. METHODS: The PEARL model is an agent-based simulation of MSM in HIV care in the US, calibrated to data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). RESULTS: PEARL projects a gradual decrease in median age of MSM at ART initiation from 36 to 31 years during 2010-2030, accompanied by changes in mortality among Black, White, and Hispanic MSM on ART by -8.4%, 42.4% and -19.6%. The median age of all MSM on ART is projected to increase from 45 to 47 years from 2010-2030, with the proportion of ART-users age ≥60y increasing from 6.7% to 28.0%. Almost half (49.7%) of White MSM ART-users are projected to age ≥60y by 2030, compared to 19.5% of Black and 17.2% of Hispanic MSM. CONCLUSIONS: The overall age of US MSM in HIV care is expected to increase over the next decade, and differentially by race/ethnicity. As this population age, HIV programs should expand care for age-related causes of morbidity and mortality.

Analysis of Postvaccination Breakthrough COVID-19 Infections Among Adults With HIV in the United States.

Importance: Recommendations for additional doses of COVID-19 vaccines for people with HIV (PWH) are restricted to those with advanced disease or unsuppressed HIV viral load. Understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection risk after vaccination among PWH is essential for informing vaccination guidelines. Objective: To estimate the rate and risk of breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated PWH and people without HIV (PWoH) in the United States. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used the Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET)-II (of the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design [NA-ACCORD], which is part of the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS [IeDEA]), collaboration of 4 prospective, electronic health record-based cohorts from integrated health systems and academic health centers. Adult PWH who were fully vaccinated prior to June 30, 2021, were matched with PWoH on date of full vaccination, age, race and ethnicity, and sex and followed up through December 31, 2021. Exposures: HIV infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: COVID-19 breakthrough infections, defined as laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 diagnosis after a patient was fully vaccinated. Results: Among 113 994 patients (33 029 PWH and 80 965 PWoH), most were 55 years or older (80 017 [70%]) and male (104 967 [92%]); 47 098 (41%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 43 218 (38%) were non-Hispanic White. The rate of breakthrough infections was higher in PWH vs PWoH (55 [95% CI, 52-58] cases per 1000 person-years vs 43 [95% CI, 42-45] cases per 1000 person-years). Cumulative incidence of breakthroughs 9 months after full vaccination was low (3.8% [95% CI, 3.7%-3.9%]), albeit higher in PWH vs PWoH (4.4% vs 3.5%; log-rank P < .001; risk difference, 0.9% [95% CI, 0.6%-1.2%]) and within each vaccine type. Breakthrough infection risk was 28% higher in PWH vs PWoH (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.19-1.37]). Among PWH, younger age (<45 y vs 45-54 y), history of COVID-19, and not receiving an additional dose (aHR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.58-0.88]) were associated with increased risk of breakthrough infections. There was no association of breakthrough with HIV viral load suppression, but high CD4 count (ie, ≥500 cells/mm3) was associated with fewer breakthroughs among PWH. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, COVID-19 vaccination, especially with an additional dose, was effective against infection with SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating through December 31, 2021. PWH had an increased risk of breakthrough infections compared with PWoH. Expansion of recommendations for additional vaccine doses to all PWH should be considered.

The shifting age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To project the future age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States, under expected trends in HIV diagnosis and survival (baseline scenario) and achieving the ending the HIV epidemic (EHE) goals of a 75% reduction in HIV diagnoses from 2020 to 2025 and sustaining levels to 2030 (EHE75% scenario). DESIGN: An agent-based simulation model with mathematical functions estimated from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design data and parameters from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's annual HIV surveillance reports. METHODS: The PEARL (ProjEcting Age, MultimoRbidity, and PoLypharmacy in adults with HIV) model simulated individuals in 15 subgroups of sex-and-HIV acquisition risk and race/ethnicity. Simulation outcomes from the baseline scenario are compared with outcomes from the EHE75% scenario. RESULTS: Under the baseline scenario, PEARL projects a substantial increase in number of ART-users over time, reaching a population of 909 638 [95% uncertainty range (UR): 878 449-946 513] by 2030. The overall median age increased from 50 years in 2020 to 52 years in 2030, with 23% of ART-users age ≥65 years in 2030. Under the EHE75% scenario, the projected number of ART-users was 718 348 [703 044-737 817] (median age = 56 years) in 2030, with a 70% relative reduction in ART-users <30 years and a 4% relative reduction in ART-users age ≥65 years compared to baseline, and persistent heterogeneities in projected numbers by sex-and-HIV acquisition risk group and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: It is critical to prepare healthcare systems to meet the impending demand of the US population aging with HIV.

Toward Ending the HIV Epidemic: Temporal Trends and Disparities in Early ART Initiation and Early Viral Suppression Among People Newly Entering HIV Care in the United States, 2012-2018.

Background: In 2012, the US Department of Health and Human Services updated their HIV treatment guidelines to recommend antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all people with HIV (PWH) regardless of CD4 count. We investigated recent trends and disparities in early receipt of ART prescription and subsequent viral suppression (VS). Methods: We examined data from ART-naïve PWH newly presenting to HIV care at 13 North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design clinical cohorts in the United States during 2012-2018. We calculated the cumulative incidence of early ART (within 30 days of entry into care) and early VS (within 6 months of ART initiation) using the Kaplan-Meier survival function. Discrete time-to-event models were fit to estimate unadjusted and adjusted associations of early ART and VS with sociodemographic and clinical factors. Results: Among 11 853 eligible ART-naïve PWH, the cumulative incidence of early ART increased from 42% in 2012 to 82% in 2018. The cumulative incidence of early VS among the 8613 PWH who initiated ART increased from 83% in 2012 to 93% in 2018. In multivariable models, factors independently associated with delayed ART and VS included non-Hispanic/Latino Black race, residence in the South census region, being a male with injection drug use acquisition risk, and history of substance use disorder (SUD; all P ≤ .05). Conclusions: Early ART initiation and VS have substantially improved in the United States since the release of universal treatment guidelines. Disparities by factors related to social determinants of health and SUD demand focused attention on and services for some subpopulations.

Evaluating the Cardiovascular Risk in an Aging Population of People With HIV: The Impact of Hepatitis C Virus Coinfection.

Background People with HIV (PWH) are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with an unknown added impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection. We aimed to identify whether HCV coinfection increases the risk of type 1 myocardial infarction (T1MI) and if the risk differs by age. Methods and Results We used data from NA-ACCORD (North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design) from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2017, PWH (aged 40-79 years) who had initiated antiretroviral therapy. The primary outcome was an adjudicated T1MI event. Those who started direct-acting HCV antivirals were censored at the time of initiation. Crude incidence rates per 1000 person-years were calculated for T1MI by calendar time. Discrete time-to-event analyses with complementary log-log models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs for T1MI among those with and without HCV. Among 23 361 PWH, 4677 (20%) had HCV. There were 89 (1.9%) T1MIs among PWH with HCV and 314 (1.7%) among PWH without HCV. HCV was not associated with increased T1MI risk in PWH (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.74-1.30]). However, the risk of T1MI increased with age and was amplified in those with HCV (adjusted hazard ratio per 10-year increase in age, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.38-2.48]) compared with those without HCV (adjusted hazard ratio per 10-year increase in age,1.30 [95% CI, 1.13-1.50]; P<0.001, test of interaction). Conclusions HCV coinfection was not significantly associated with increased T1MI risk; however, the risk of T1MI with increasing age was greater in those with HCV compared with those without, and HCV status should be considered when assessing CVD risk in aging PWH.