A panel vector autoregression analysis for the dynamics of medical and long-term care expenditures.

Although medical and long-term care expenditures for older adults are closely related, providing rigorous statistical analysis for their dynamic relationship is challenging. In this research, we propose a novel approach using the panel vector autoregression model to reveal the realized patterns of the interdependence. As an empirical application, we analyze monthly panel data on individuals in a city of Japan, where social insurance covers many formal services for long-term care. Our estimation results indicate the existence of intertemporal transition from expensive acute medical care to reasonable at-home medical care, then to at-home long-term care. Under this context, the enhancement of formal long-term care sector in Japan might have played an important role in the suppression of the total care cost in spite for its rapid aging over the past 2 decades. Additionally, we find that daycare plays multiple roles in Japanese long-term care, such as respite and rehabilitation, but there is no considerable transition from outpatient rehabilitation to daycare in the long-term care sector.

Presenteeism and social interaction in the "new normal" in Japan: a longitudinal questionnaire study.

BACKGROUND: Although social interaction and social support during the "new normal" due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may be related to presenteeism, the effect between these factors has not been clear for Japanese workers. The aim of this study was to describe the presenteeism of Japanese workers with reference to social interaction and social support following the lifestyle changes due to COVID-19 and to assess whether social interaction and social support affected their presenteeism. METHODS: The data were obtained from internet panel surveys from October 2020. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and multiple linear regression was conducted using the data from the first, fourth and fifth surveys, which were conducted during October to November 2020, July to August 2021, and September to October 2021, respectively. To measure presenteeism, questions from "absenteeism and presenteeism questions of the World Health Organization's Heath and Work Performance Questionnaire", short version in Japanese was utilized. Multiple linear regressions were conducted to investigate the effects of social interaction and social support-related factors on presenteeism. RESULTS: A total of 3,407 participants were included in the analysis. The mean score of absolute presenteeism from the fifth survey was 58.07 (SD = 19.71). More time spent talking with family, a larger number of social supporters and a higher satisfaction level for social support were associated with a higher absolute presenteeism score. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested that social support reduced the presenteeism of the Japanese workers during the "new normal" due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Social interaction with family also relieved presenteeism.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of adult living-donor liver transplantation in Japan.

AIM: Living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) is a highly effective life-saving procedure; however, it requires substantial medical resources, and the cost-effectiveness of LDLT versus conservative management (CM) for adult patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) remains unclear in Japan. METHODS: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis using the Diagnostic Procedure Combination (DPC) data from the nationwide database of the DPC research group. We selected adult patients (18 years or older) who were admitted or discharged between 2010 and 2021 with a diagnosis of ESLD with Child-Pugh class C or B. A decision tree and Markov model were constructed, and all event probabilities were computed in 3-month cycles over a 10-year period. The willingness-to-pay per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was set at 5 million Japanese yen (JPY) (49,801 US dollars [USD]) from the perspective of the public health-care payer. RESULTS: After propensity score matching, we identified 1297 and 111,849 patients in the LDLT and CM groups, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LDLT versus CM for Child-Pugh classes C and B was 2.08 million JPY/QALY (20,708 USD/QALY) and 5.24 million JPY/QALY (52,153 USD/QALY), respectively. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed the probabilities of being below the willingness-to-pay of 49,801 USD/QALY as 95.4% in class C and 48.5% in class B. Tornado diagrams revealed all variables in class C were below 49,801 USD/QALY while their ranges included or exceeded 49,801 USD/QALY in class B. CONCLUSIONS: Living-donor liver transplantation for adult patients with Child-Pugh class C was cost-effective compared with CM, whereas LDLT versus CM for class B patients was not cost-effective in Japan.

Impact of the hospital volume and setting on postoperative complications of surgery for gastroenterological cancers in a regional area of Western Japan.

PURPOSE: A research subgroup was established by the Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery to improve the health care quality in the Chushikoku area of Western Japan. METHODS: The records of four surgical procedures were extracted from the Japanese National Clinical Database and analyzed retrospectively to establish the association between hospital characteristics, defined using a combination of hospital case-volume and patients' hospital travel distance, and the incidences of perioperative complications of ≥ Grade 3 of the Clavien-Dindo classification after gastroenterological surgery. RESULTS: This study analyzed 11,515 cases of distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer, 4,705 cases of total gastrectomy for gastric cancer, 4,996 cases of right hemicolectomy for colon cancer, and 5,243 cases of lower anterior resection for rectal cancer, with composite outcome incidences of 5.6%, 10.2%, 5.5%, and 10.7%, respectively. After adjusting for patient characteristics and surgical procedures, no association was identified between the hospital category and surgical outcomes. CONCLUSION: The findings of our study of the Chushikoku region did not provide positive support for the consolidation and centralization of hospitals, based solely on hospital case volume. Our grouping was unique in that we included patient travel distance in the analysis, but further investigations from other perspectives are needed.

Effects of hospitalist co-management on rate of initiation of osteoporosis treatment in patients with vertebral compression fractures: Retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Vertebral compression fractures are common in elderly people and most are due to osteoporosis. Osteoporosis treatment is effective for secondary prophylaxis, so initiation is recommended. Despite the clear benefits, the rate of initiation of osteoporosis treatment is very low. It is reported to be due to several factors including insufficient systems-based approaches for hospitals and post-acute care. Hospitalists, who are physicians dedicated to the treatment of patients in hospital and whose activity is generalist rather than specialized, are reported to be associated with higher-quality inpatient care because of, among other things, closer adherence to guidelines. Co-management by hospitalists for patients with vertebral compression fractures has potential benefits towards improving the outcomes. We compared the rate of initiation of osteoporosis treatment for patients with vertebral compression fractures between conventional orthopedic surgeon-led care (conventional group) and hospitalist co-management care (co-management group). METHODS: This is a single-center retrospective cohort study to evaluate the rate of initiation of osteoporosis treatment and reasons for non-initiation of osteoporosis treatment. Other clinical indicators were also evaluated, including length of hospital stay, preventable complications during hospitalization, and rate of 30-day readmission. RESULTS: We identified 55 patients in the conventional group and 93 patients in the co-management group. The rate of initiation of osteoporosis treatment was higher in the co-management group (45.2% vs. 3.6%, OR 21.5; 95%CI 5.12-192.0; P < 0.01). Most of the patients with non-initiation in the co-management group had reasons for it described in the medical records, but in the conventional group the reasons were unknown. There was no significant difference in length of hospital stay, preventable complications during hospitalization, or 30-day readmission between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalist co-management of patients with vertebral compression fractures showed significantly higher rate of initiation of osteoporosis treatment than conventional orthopedic surgeon-led care.

Stages of a Transtheoretical Model as Predictors of the Decline in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The transtheoretical model (TTM) is composed of the multiple stages according to patient's consciousness and is believed to lead people to realize the importance of healthier behaviors. We examined the association of TTM stages with the decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). METHODS: We used the annual health checkup data and health insurance claims data of the Japan Health Insurance Association in Kyoto Prefecture between April 2012 and March 2016. TTM stages of change obtained from questionnaires at the first health checkup and categorized into six groups. The primary outcome was defined as a more than 30% decline in eGFR from the first health checkup. We fitted multivariable Cox proportional-hazards model for time-to-event analyses adjusting for age, sex, eGFR, body mass index, blood pressure, blood sugar, dyslipidemia, uric acid, urinary protein, and existence of kidney diseases at first health checkup. RESULTS: We analyzed 239,755 employees and the mean follow-up was 2.9 (standard deviation, 1.2) years. As compared with the stage 1 group, the risk of eGFR decline was significantly low in the stage 3 group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.91); stage 4 group (HR 0.80; 95% CI, 0.65-0.98); and stage 5 group (HR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66-0.95). CONCLUSION: Compared with the precontemplation stage (stage 1), the preparation, action and maintenance stages (stages 3, 4, and 5), were associated with a lower risk of eGFR decline.

Impact of the Clinical Trials Act on Noncommercial Clinical Research in Japan: An Interrupted Time-series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The number of new noncommercial clinical studies conducted in Japan declined within the first year of the implementation of the Clinical Trials Act (CTA) on April 1, 2018. This study aimed to examine the impact of the CTA's enforcement on the number of new noncommercial clinical studies registered in the Japanese Clinical Trial Registry. METHODS: An interrupted time-series design was used in the analysis, which was conducted from April 2015 to March 2019. We collected data for studies registered in the Clinical Trial Registry, managed by the University Hospital Medical Information Network. RESULTS: In total, 35,811 studies were registered; of these, 16,455 fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The difference in the trend of monthly number of new studies after CTA enforcement decreased significantly by 15.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], -18.7 to -11.3), and the level decreased by 40.8 (95% CI, -68.2 to -13.3) studies from the pre-enforcement to the post-enforcement period. Multigroup analyses indicated that the act exerted a significant effect on the trend of new clinical studies, particularly those with smaller sample sizes, interventional study designs, and nonprofit funding sponsors. CONCLUSIONS: The number of Japanese noncommercial clinical studies declined significantly following implementation of the CTA. It is necessary to establish a system to promote clinical studies in Japan while ensuring transparency and safety.

Measuring the quality of life of long-term care service users in Japan: a cross-sectional questionnaire study.

BACKGROUND: In Japan's super-aging society, the number of long-term care service providers is increasing, and the quality of care is a matter of concern. One aspect of the quality of care is the user's quality of life. The questionnaires EQ-5D and WHO-5 are representative indicators of quality of life. Herein, we aimed to measure the quality of life in long-term care service users in Japan and to clarify the relationship between quality of life and the level of care required. METHODS: A questionnaire study was conducted in 106 facilities of 22 corporations. In addition to the EQ-5D and WHO-5, sex, age, and the level of care required were assessed by descriptive statistics. Bonferroni's multiple comparison test was used to analyze each quality of life score, and the differences by sex and age were analyzed multiple regression analyses, with each quality of life score as the objective variable. RESULTS: Of 4647 cases collected, 2830 were analyzed, with no missing data. Both indicators tended to be lower than the general older population. Those scores tended to be higher in females than males (EQ-5D: males, 0.58 ± 0.26; females, 0.60 ± 0.24; P = 0.06 and WHO-5: males, 13.8 ± 5.92; females 14.9 ± 5.70; P < 0.001). In terms of age, those under 65 years old with specific diseases had lower EQ-5D scores than those in other age groups (P < 0.001); however, WHO-5 scores did not differ by age. Multiple regression analysis showed a significant association between the EQ-5D score and level of care required, except for support-required level 1, which tended to worsen as the level of care required increased. Conversely, the WHO-5 score was significantly lower for care need levels 2, 4, and 5. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of life of long-term care service users was worse than that of the general older population, it tended to be low among males and those under 65 years old with specific diseases. Furthermore, it gradually decreased as the level of care required increased. It is important to monitor users' quality of life as a quality indicator of care, to improve and manage it.

Paraplegia After Open Surgical Repair Versus Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair for Thoracic Aortic Disease: A Retrospective Analysis of Japanese Administrative Data.

OBJECTIVES: To comparatively examine the risk of postoperative paraplegia between open surgical descending aortic repair and thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) among patients with thoracic aortic disease. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Acute-care hospitals in Japan. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 6,202 patients diagnosed with thoracic aortic disease. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The main outcome of this study was the incidence of postoperative paraplegia. Multiple logistic regression models, using inverse probability of treatment weighting and an instrumental variable (ratio of TEVAR use to open surgical repair and TEVAR uses), showed that the odds ratios of paraplegia for TEVAR (relative to open surgical descending aortic repair) were 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.42-1.59; p = 0.55) in the inverse probability of treatment-weighted model and 0.88 (0.42-1.86; p = 0.75) in the instrumental-variable model. CONCLUSIONS: There were no statistical differences in the risk of paraplegia between open surgical repair and TEVAR in patients with thoracic aortic disease. Improved perioperative management for open surgical repair may have contributed to the similarly low incidence of paraplegia in these two surgery types.

Effects of hospitalist co-management for hip fractures.

BACKGROUND: Early surgery is recommended for patients with hip fractures. Average time to surgery in Japan is 3.8 days. Such delay could be caused by the burden of preoperative assessment and management of geriatric comorbidities upon orthopedic surgeons. Hospitalist co-management has potential benefits in comprehensive perioperative care that could positively affect time to surgery in patients with hip fractures. We compare clinical outcomes of patients with hip fractures managed by orthopedic surgeon-led care (conventional group) vs. those of patients with hip fractures managed by hospitalist co-management. METHODS: In this single-center retrospective cohort study, time to surgery was assessed with interrupted time series analyses. Whole length of hospital stay, length of hospital stay after surgery, complications during hospitalization, 30-day readmission, initiation of osteoporosis treatment and adherence to guidelines for deep vein thrombosis prophylaxis were also evaluated with Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. RESULTS: The conventional group comprised 332 patients and the co-management group 418 patients. Interrupted time series analyses revealed an immediate reduction of time to surgery by 1.2 days (95%CI, -1.9 to -0.4, P = 0.003) with the start of co-management. Whole length of hospital stay and length of hospital stay after surgery tended to be shorter, but without statistical significance. Intermediate to severe complications and 30-day readmission were not significantly different between the groups. In the co-management group, the rate of initiation of osteoporosis treatment (46.4% vs. 6.3%, P < 0.001) and adherence rate to guidelines for deep vein thrombosis prophylaxis (99.3% vs. 88%, P < 0.001) were significantly higher than those in the conventional group. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalist co-management for elderly patients with hip fractures led to significantly shorter time to surgery than conventional orthopedic surgeon-led care, and had advantages in other clinical indicators.

Nationwide multicenter questionnaire surveys on countermeasures against antimicrobial resistance and infections in hospitals.

BACKGROUND: The goals of the National Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) of Japan include "implementing appropriate infection prevention and control" and "appropriate use of antimicrobials," which are relevant to healthcare facilities. Specifically, linking efforts between existing infection control teams and antimicrobial stewardship programs was suggested to be important. Previous studies reported that human resources, such as full-time equivalents of infection control practitioners, were related to improvements in antimicrobial stewardship. METHODS: We posted questionnaires to all teaching hospitals (n = 1017) regarding hospital countermeasures against AMR and infections. To evaluate changes over time, surveys were conducted twice (1st survey: Nov 2016, 2nd survey: Feb 2018). A latent transition analysis (LTA) was performed to identify latent statuses, which refer to underlying subgroups of hospitals, and effects of the number of members in infection control teams per bed on being in the better statuses. RESULTS: The number of valid responses was 678 (response rate, 66.7%) for the 1st survey and 559 (55.0%) for the 2nd survey. More than 99% of participating hospitals had infection control teams, with differences in activity among hospitals. Roughly 70% had their own intervention criteria for antibiotics therapies, whereas only about 60 and 50% had criteria established for the use of anti-methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus antibiotics and broad-spectrum antibiotics, respectively. Only 50 and 40% of hospitals conducted surveillance of catheter-associated urinary tract infections and ventilator-associated pneumonia, respectively. Less than 50% of hospitals used maximal barrier precautions for central line catheter insertion. The LTA identified five latent statuses. The membership probability of the most favorable status in the 2nd study period was slightly increased from the 1st study period (23.6 to 25.3%). However, the increase in the least favorable status was higher (26.3 to 31.8%). Results of the LTA did not support a relationship between increasing the number of infection control practitioners per bed, which is reportedly related to improvements in antimicrobial stewardship, and being in more favorable latent statuses. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest the need for more comprehensive antimicrobial stewardship programs and increased surveillance activities for healthcare-associated infections to improve antimicrobial stewardship and infection control in hospitals.

Effects of periodontal management for patients with type 2 diabetes on healthcare expenditure, hospitalization and worsening of diabetes: an observational study using medical, dental and pharmacy claims data in Japan.

AIMS: To investigate the effects of regular periodontal management for people with type 2 diabetes on total healthcare expenditure, hospitalization and the introduction of insulin. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We collected data of individuals who were prescribed diabetes medications during the fiscal year 2015 from the claims database of a prefecture in Japan. We fitted generalized linear models that had sex, age, comorbidities and the status of periodontal management during the previous two years as predictors. RESULTS: A total of 16,583 individuals were enrolled. The annual healthcare expenditure in the third year was 4% less (adjusted multiplier 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92-1.00) in the group receiving periodontal management every year. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for all-cause hospitalization was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82-0.98). The aOR of introducing insulin in the third year for those who had not been prescribed insulin during the previous two years (n = 13,222) was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.64-0.92) in the group receiving periodontal management every year. CONCLUSION: Regular periodontal management for diabetic people was associated with reduced healthcare expenditure, all-cause hospitalization and the introduction of insulin therapy.

Early impact of school closure and social distancing for COVID-19 on the number of inpatients with childhood non-COVID-19 acute infections in Japan.

Many countries have implemented school closures as part of social distancing measures intended to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to assess the early impact of nationwide school closure (March-May 2020) and social distancing for COVID-19 on the number of inpatients with major childhood infectious diseases in Japan. Using data from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination system in Japan, we identified patients aged 15 years or younger with admissions for a diagnosis of upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), influenza, gastrointestinal infection (GII), appendicitis, urinary tract infection (UTI), or skin and soft tissue infection (SSTI) between July 2018 and June 2020. Changes in the trend of the weekly number of inpatients between the two periods were assessed using interrupted time-series analysis. A total of 75,053 patients in 210 hospitals were included. The overall weekly number of inpatients was decreased by 52.5%, 77.4%, and by 83.4% in the last week of March, April, and May 2020, respectively, when compared on a year-on-year basis. The estimated impact was a reduction of 581 (standard error 42.9) inpatients per week in the post-school-closure period (p < 0.001). The main part of the reduction was for pre-school children. Remarkable decreases in the number of inpatients with URI, LRTI, and GII were observed, while there were relatively mild changes in the other groups.Conclusion: We confirmed a marked reduction in the number of inpatients with childhood non-COVID-19 acute infections in the post-school-closure period. What is Known: • Most countries have implemented social distancing measures to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). • A large decrease in pediatric emergency visits has been reported from several countries after the social distancing. What is New: • Based on administrative claims data, a marked reduction in the number of inpatients for childhood non-COVID-19 acute infections was found in the post-school-closure period in Japan. • The magnitude of the reduction was different between the disease groups.

Trajectories of end-of-life medical and long-term care expenditures for older adults in Japan: retrospective longitudinal study using a large-scale linked database of medical and long-term care claims.

BACKGROUND: An accurate understanding of the current state of end-of-life care is important for healthcare planning. The objectives of this study were to examine the trajectories of end-of-life medical and long-term care expenditures and associated factors. METHODS: This was a retrospective longitudinal study using a large-scale linked database of medical and long-term care claims-National Health Insurance, Advanced Elderly Medical Insurance, and long-term care insurance-covering Prefecture A in Japan. Patients aged ≥70 years who died between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2017, were included (N = 16,084 patients; mean age = 85.1 ± 7.5 years; 7804 men (48.5%) and 8280 women (51.5%)). The outcome measures were medical expenditures (inpatient, outpatient, and prescription), long-term care expenditures, and total healthcare expenditures (the sum of medical and long-term care expenditures) during the 60 months before the date of death. We calculated each patient's monthly medical and long-term care expenditures for 60 months before the date of death and applied group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct trajectories. Factors associated with spending trajectories were examined via multinomial logistic regression analyses. Explanatory variables included age, sex, diseases, and the medical services used. RESULTS: We identified six distinct spending trajectories for the total healthcare expenditures: high persistent (45.6%), medium-to-high persistent (26.1%), early rise then high persistent (9.8%), late rise (6.4%), low persistent then very late rise (i.e., when spending starts increasing later than "late rise"; 6.4%), and progressive increase (5.7%). Factors associated with the high-persistent trajectory were chronic illnesses, various organ failures, neurodegenerative diseases, fractures, and tube feeding. The trajectory pattern of medical expenditures was similar to that of total healthcare expenditures; however, a different pattern was seen for long-term care expenditures. CONCLUSIONS: Regarding combined medical and long-term care spending of the last 5 years, most patients belonged to a pattern in which the healthcare expenditures remained high, and a combination of multiple factors contributed to these patterns. This finding can offer healthcare providers a longer-term perspective on end-of-life care.

Surgical volume reduction and the announcement of triage during the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a cohort study using an interrupted time series analysis.

PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused unprecedented challenges for surgical staffs to minimize exposure to COVID-19 or save medical resources without harmful patient outcomes, in accordance with the statement of each surgical society. No research has empirically validated declines in surgical volume in Japan, based on the usage of surgical triage. We aimed to identify whether the announcement of surgical priorities by each Japanese surgical society may have affected the surgical volume decline during the 1st wave of this pandemic. METHODS: We extracted 490,719 available cases of patients aged > 15 years who underwent elective major surgeries between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2020. After the categorization of surgical specialities, we calculated descriptive statistics to compare the year-over-year trend and conducted an interrupted time series analysis to validate the decline of each surgical procedure. RESULTS: Monthly surgical cases of eight surgical specialities, especially ophthalmology and ear/nose/throat surgeries, decreased from April 2020 and reached a minimum in May 2020. An interrupted time series analysis showed no significant trends in oncological and critical surgeries. CONCLUSION: Non-critical surgeries showed obvious and statistically significant declines in case volume during the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic according to the statement of each surgical society in Japan.

Transformational improvement in quality care and health systems: the next decade.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare is amongst the most complex of human systems. Coordinating activities and integrating newer with older ways of treating patients while delivering high-quality, safe care, is challenging. Three landmark reports in 2018 led by (1) the Lancet Global Health Commission, (2) a coalition of the World Health Organization, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Bank, and (3) the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine of the United States propose that health systems need to tackle care quality, create less harm and provide universal health coverage in all nations, but especially low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study is to review these reports with the aim of advancing the discussion beyond a conceptual diagnosis of quality gaps into identification of practical opportunities for transforming health systems by 2030. MAIN BODY: We analysed the reports via text-mining techniques and content analyses to derive their key themes and concepts. Initiatives to make progress include better measurement, using the capacities of information and communications technologies, taking a systems view of change, supporting systems to be constantly improving, creating learning health systems and undergirding progress with effective research and evaluation. Our analysis suggests that the world needs to move from 2018, the year of reports, to the 2020s, the decade of action. We propose three initiatives to support this move: first, developing a blueprint for change, modifiable to each country's circumstances, to give effect to the reports' recommendations; second, to make tangible steps to reduce inequities within and across health systems, including redistributing resources to areas of greatest need; and third, learning from what goes right to complement current efforts focused on reducing things going wrong. We provide examples of targeted funding which would have major benefits, reduce inequalities, promote universality and be better at learning from successes as well as failures. CONCLUSION: The reports contain many recommendations, but lack an integrated, implementable, 10-year action plan for the next decade to give effect to their aims to improve care to the most vulnerable, save lives by providing high-quality healthcare and shift to measuring and ensuring better systems- and patient-level outcomes. This article signals what needs to be done to achieve these aims.

Developing and validating a multivariable prediction model for in-hospital mortality of pneumonia with advanced chronic kidney disease patients: a retrospective analysis using a nationwide database in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of pneumonia in patients with advanced stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains unimproved for years. We attempt to develop a simple and more useful scoring system for predicting in-hospital mortality for advanced CKD patients with pneumonia. METHODS: Using the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database, we identified the in-hospital adult patients both with a record of pneumonia and stage 5 or 5D CKD as a comorbidity on admission between April 1, 2012 and March 31, 2016. Predictive variable selection was analyzed by multivariable logistic regression analysis, stepwise method, LASSO method and random forest method, and then develop a new simple scoring system seeking for highest c-statistics combination of variables in one sample data set for model development. Finally, we compared c-statistics of univariate logistic regression about new scoring system with c-statistics about "A-DROP" in the other sample data set. RESULT: We identified 8402 patients in 707 hospitals, and the total in-hospital mortality was 11.0% (437 patients) in development data set. Seven variables were selected, which includes age (male ≥ 70 years, female ≥ 75 years), respiratory failure, orientation disturbance, low blood pressure, the need of assistance in feeding or bowel control, severe or moderate thinness and CRP 200 mg/L or extent of consolidation on chest X-ray ≥ 2/3 of one lung. The c-statistics of univariate logistic regression was 0.8017 using seven variables, while that was 0.7372 using "A-DROP" CONCLUSION: In advanced CKD patients, if we select appropriate variables for predicting in-hospital mortality, simple scoring system may have better discrimination than "A-DROP".

Correction to: Impact of oral voriconazole during chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome: a Japanese nationwide retrospective cohort study.

In the original publication, in Figure 1 the month range of DPC Database has been given incorrectly.

Association between clinic physician workforce and avoidable readmission: a retrospective database research.

BACKGROUND: To reduce hospitalization costs, it is necessary to prevent avoidable hospitalization as well as avoidable readmission. This study aimed to examine the relationship between clinic physician workforce and unplanned readmission for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs). METHODS: The present study was a retrospective database research using nationwide administrative claims database of acute care hospitals in Japan. We identified patients aged ≥65 years who were admitted with ACSCs from home and discharged to home between April 2014 and December 2014 (n = 127,209). The primary outcome was unplanned readmission for ACSCs within 30 or 90 days of hospital discharge. A hierarchical logistic regression model was developed with patients at the first level and regions (secondary medical service areas) at the second level. RESULTS: The 30-day and 90-day ACSC-related readmission rates were 3.7 and 4.6%, respectively. The high full-time equivalents (FTEs) of clinic physicians per 100,000 population were significantly associated with decreased odds ratios for 30-day and 90-day ACSC-related readmissions. This association did not change even when sensitivity analyses was conducted. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients who had history of admission for ACSCs, greater clinic physician workforce prevented the incidence of readmission because of ACSCs. Regional medical plans to prevent avoidable readmissions should incorporate policy interventions that focus on the clinic physician workforce.

Impact of oral voriconazole during chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome: a Japanese nationwide retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The prevention of invasive fungal infections is important in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML)/myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) receiving cytoreductive chemotherapy. However, the role of oral voriconazole (VRCZ) in such patients has not been established. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of oral VRCZ compared to that of first-generation azoles prescribed within 7 days after the onset of chemotherapy in adult patients with AML/MDS using the Japanese administrative database. METHODS: This nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Diagnosis Procedure Combination/Per-Diem Payment System. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who switched to intravenous antifungal agents. Analyses using the instrumental variable method were performed to address unmeasured confounding. RESULTS: In total, data on 5517 inpatients from 142 hospitals were analyzed. An oral VRCZ prescription was significantly associated with a reduction in the proportion of patients switching to intravenous antifungal agents compared to first-generation azole prescription (21.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] - 33.4 to - 8.6)). The impact of oral VRCZ in reducing the proportion of patients switching to intravenous antifungal agents was stronger in patients aged < 65 years than in those aged ≥ 65 years (- 40.6%, 95% CI - 63.2 to - 17.9; - 21.9%, 95% CI - 35.8 to - 8.1, respectively) and in patients prescribed oral azole within 3 days from the onset of chemotherapy than in those prescribed the same later (- 32.9%, 95% CI - 46.7 to - 19.2; - 9.0%, 95% CI - 33.7 to 15.7, respectively). CONCLUSION: Oral VRCZ administration may benefit adult patients with AML/MDS undergoing chemotherapy.