A Bayesian approach to real-time spatiotemporal prediction systems for bronchiolitis.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) induced bronchiolitis is a common lung infection and a major cause of infant hospitalization and mortality. Unfortunately, there is no known cure for RSV but several vaccines are in various stages of clinical trials. Currently, immunoprophylaxis is a preventative measure consisting of a series of monthly shots that should be administered at the start, and throughout, peak RSV season. Thus, the successful implementation of immunoprophylaxis is contingent upon understanding when outbreak seasons will begin, peak, and end. In this research we estimate the seasonal epidemic curves of RSV induced bronchiolitis using a spatially varying change point model. Further, in a novel approach and using the fitted change point model, we develop a historical matching algorithm to generate real time predictions of seasonal curves for future years.

Factors Associated with Successful Vaginal Birth After a Primary Cesarean Section in Women with an Optimal Inter-Delivery Interval.

PURPOSE: We sought to determine the success rate of VBAC and factors associated with achieving VBAC at a referral hospital in the Democratic Republic of Congo in women with a subsequent pregnancy greater than or equal to 18 months from their primary cesarean section (CS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were included for participation if they had an inter-delivery interval (IDI) of at least 18 months from their primary CS, accepted TOLAC, and had no contraindications. Information was collected about patients' demographics, obstetric history, and factors impacting their labor process. Descriptive analyses compared patients that had a successful VBAC and those who did not. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression models identified factors associated with a successful VBAC. RESULTS: Among 231 eligible patients who attempted a VBAC, 57.6% (133) achieved VBAC. Participants had a mean age of 29 (SD 6), with the majority having a prior vaginal delivery (68.8%). VBAC was positively associated with a higher Bishop score (AOR 1.12, 95% CI 1.02, 1.23) and a spontaneous labor onset (AOR 3.06, 95% CI 1.52, 6.17). VBAC was negatively associated with a macrosomic fetus (AOR 0.21, 95% CI 0.08, 0.58). CONCLUSION: TOLAC results in VBAC more than half the time and is associated with a spontaneous labor onset and a higher Bishop score. Women with a macrosomic fetus were more likely to have an unsuccessful VBAC, resulting in an RCS. An optimal IDI was not enough to ensure a successful VBAC. Upon patients' arrival to the hospital, practitioners should re-evaluate their eligibility to attempt a VBAC based on their Bishop score and if they had a spontaneous labor onset to decrease the health risks of an RCS.

Comparative Seasonal Respiratory Virus Epidemic Timing in Utah.

Previous studies have found evidence of viral interference between seasonal respiratory viruses. Using laboratory-confirmed data from a Utah-based healthcare provider, Intermountain Health Care, we analyzed the time-specific patterns of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A, influenza B, human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus, and enterovirus circulation from 2004 to 2018, using descriptive methods and wavelet analysis (n = 89,462) on a local level. The results showed that RSV virus dynamics in Utah were the most consistent of any of the viruses studied, and that the other seasonal viruses were generally in synchrony with RSV, except for enterovirus (which mostly occurs late summer to early fall) and influenza A and B during pandemic years.