A clinical decision support system optimising adjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancers by integrating deep learning and pathological staging markers: a development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: The DoMore-v1-CRC marker was recently developed using deep learning and conventional haematoxylin and eosin-stained tissue sections, and was observed to outperform established molecular and morphological markers of patient outcome after primary colorectal cancer resection. The aim of the present study was to develop a clinical decision support system based on DoMore-v1-CRC and pathological staging markers to facilitate individualised selection of adjuvant treatment. METHODS: We estimated cancer-specific survival in subgroups formed by pathological tumour stage (pT<4 or pT4), pathological nodal stage (pN0, pN1, or pN2), number of lymph nodes sampled (≤12 or >12) if not pN2, and DoMore-v1-CRC classification (good, uncertain, or poor prognosis) in 997 patients with stage II or III colorectal cancer considered to have no residual tumour (R0) from two community-based cohorts in Norway and the UK, and used these data to define three risk groups. An external cohort of 1075 patients with stage II or III R0 colorectal cancer from the QUASAR 2 trial was used for validation; these patients were treated with single-agent capecitabine. The proposed risk stratification system was evaluated using Cox regression analysis. We similarly evaluated a risk stratification system intended to reflect current guidelines and clinical practice. The primary outcome was cancer-specific survival. FINDINGS: The new risk stratification system provided a hazard ratio of 10·71 (95% CI 6·39-17·93; p<0·0001) for high-risk versus low-risk patients and 3·06 (1·73-5·42; p=0·0001) for intermediate versus low risk in the primary analysis of the validation cohort. Estimated 3-year cancer-specific survival was 97·2% (95% CI 95·1-98·4; n=445 [41%]) for the low-risk group, 94·8% (91·7-96·7; n=339 [32%]) for the intermediate-risk group, and 77·6% (72·1-82·1; n=291 [27%]) for the high-risk group. The guideline-based risk grouping was observed to be less prognostic and informative (the low-risk group comprised only 142 [13%] of the 1075 patients). INTERPRETATION: Integrating DoMore-v1-CRC and pathological staging markers provided a clinical decision support system that risk stratifies more accurately than its constituent elements, and identifies substantially more patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer with similarly good prognosis as the low-risk group in current guidelines. Avoiding adjuvant chemotherapy in these patients might be safe, and could reduce morbidity, mortality, and treatment costs. FUNDING: The Research Council of Norway.

[Properties of cancer cell DNA affects the prognosis]. / Egenskaper ved kreftcellenes DNA påvirker prognosen.

BACKGROUND: When diagnosing cancer, it is often difficult to predict the further growth and spread of the tumour. One of the features of cancer is an abnormality in the amount of DNA in cancer cell nuclei, so-called DNA aneuploidy. Extensive abnormalities are often due to an unstable genome, which leads to an accumulation of mutations, dysregulation of genes and loss of cell cycle control. This article aims to provide an overview of the prognostic value of DNA ploidy analyses in ovarian, endometrial, prostate and colorectal carcinoma. MATERIAL AND METHOD: This review article is based on literature searches in PubMed for the period 2000­2016. RESULTS: The search resulted in 308 articles. Thirty-three of these, representing an analysis of more than 18 000 tumours, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In 30 of the 33 articles, a significant correlation was found between DNA ploidy and disease outcome for patients with ovarian, endometrial, prostate and colorectal carcinoma. Patients with aneuploid tumours had a poorer prognosis than those with diploid tumours. INTERPRETATION: DNA ploidy analysis is a prognostic method for patients with ovarian and endometrial carcinoma, and is used as a guide to options for supplemental treatment and fertility-sparing surgery. A review of publications in recent years of DNA ploidy analyses for prostate and colorectal carcinoma reveals that these patient groups may also benefit from these measurements. In general terms, DNA ploidy analyses may help to increase knowledge of who needs supplemental treatment and who does not ­ which may be advantageous in avoiding overtreatment.