Surveillance for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus in Wild Birds during Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry, Minnesota, 2015.

In 2015, a major outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) infection devastated poultry facilities in Minnesota, USA. To understand the potential role of wild birds, we tested 3,139 waterfowl fecal samples and 104 sick and dead birds during March 9-June 4, 2015. HPAIV was isolated from a Cooper's hawk but not from waterfowl fecal samples.

Predicting chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer at the county scale using machine learning.

Continued spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) through wild cervid herds negatively impacts populations, erodes wildlife conservation, drains resource dollars, and challenges wildlife management agencies. Risk factors for CWD have been investigated at state scales, but a regional model to predict locations of new infections can guide increasingly efficient surveillance efforts. We predicted CWD incidence by county using CWD surveillance data depicting white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in 16 eastern and midwestern US states. We predicted the binary outcome of CWD-status using four machine learning models, utilized five-fold cross-validation and grid search to pinpoint the best model, then compared model predictions against the subsequent year of surveillance data. Cross validation revealed that the Light Boosting Gradient model was the most reliable predictor given the regional data. The predictive model could be helpful for surveillance planning. Predictions of false positives emphasize areas that warrant targeted CWD surveillance because of similar conditions with counties known to harbor CWD. However, disagreements in positives and negatives between the CWD Prediction Web App predictions and the on-the-ground surveillance data one year later underscore the need for state wildlife agency professionals to use a layered modeling approach to ensure robust surveillance planning. The CWD Prediction Web App is at https://cwd-predict.streamlit.app/ .

RT-QuIC detection of CWD prion seeding activity in white-tailed deer muscle tissues.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease circulating in wild and farmed cervid populations throughout North America (United States and Canada), Europe (Finland, Norway, Sweden), and South Korea. CWD is a long-term threat to all cervid populations and to cervid hunting heritage, with the potential to cause substantial economic losses across multiple sectors. In North America, hunting and farming industries focused on the processing and consumption of white-tailed deer (WTD) venison are particularly vulnerable to CWD prion contamination, as millions of WTD are consumed annually. Real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) is a highly sensitive assay amplifying misfolded CWD prions in vitro and has facilitated CWD prion detection in a variety of tissues and excreta. To date, no study has comprehensively examined CWD prion content across bulk skeletal muscle tissues harvested from individual CWD infected WTD. Here, we use RT-QuIC to characterize prion-seeding activity in a variety of skeletal muscles from both wild and farmed CWD-positive WTD. We successfully detected CWD prions in muscles commonly used for consumption (e.g., backstrap, tenderloin, etc.) as well as within tongue and neck samples of WTD. Our results suggest that CWD prions are distributed across the skeletal muscles of infected WTD. We posit that RT-QuIC will be a useful tool for monitoring CWD prions in venison and that the method (with additional protocol optimization and high-throughput functionality) could be used to reduce and/or prevent CWD prions from entering animal and human food chains.

LIMITED DETECTION OF ANTIBODIES TO CLADE 2.3.4.4 A/GOOSE/GUANGDONG/1/1996 LINEAGE HIGHLY PATHOGENIC H5 AVIAN INFLUENZA VIRUS IN NORTH AMERICAN WATERFOWL.

During 2014, highly pathogenic (HP) influenza A viruses (IAVs) of the A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage (GsGD-HP-H5), originating from Asia, were detected in domestic poultry and wild birds in Canada and the US. These clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 viruses included reassortants possessing North American lineage gene segments; were detected in wild birds in the Pacific, Central, and Mississippi flyways; and caused the largest HP IAV outbreak in poultry in US history. To determine if an antibody response indicative of previous infection with clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 IAV could be detected in North American wild waterfowl sampled before, during, and after the 2014-15 outbreak, sera from 2,793 geese and 3,715 ducks were tested by blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) tests using both clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HPH5 and North American lineage low pathogenic (LP) H5 IAV antigens. We detected an antibody response meeting a comparative titer-based criteria (HI titer observed with 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 antigens exceeded the titer observed for LP H5 antigen by two or more dilutions) for previous infection with clade 2.3.4.4 GsGD-HP-H5 IAV in only five birds, one Blue-winged Teal (Spatula discors) sampled during the outbreak and three Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and one Canada Goose (Branta canadensis) sampled during the post-outbreak period. These serologic results are consistent with the spatiotemporal extent of the outbreak in wild birds in North America during 2014 and 2015 and limited exposure of waterfowl to GsGD-HP-H5 IAV, particularly in the central and eastern US.

Surveillance for transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in scavengers of white-tailed deer carcasses in the chronic wasting disease area of Wisconsin.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a class of neurodegenerative transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) occurring in cervids, is found in a number of states and provinces across North America. Misfolded prions, the infectious agents of CWD, are deposited in the environment via carcass remains and excreta, and pose a threat of cross-species transmission. In this study tissues were tested from 812 representative mammalian scavengers, collected in the CWD-affected area of Wisconsin, for TSE infection using the IDEXX HerdChek enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Only four of the collected mammals tested positive using the ELISA, but these were negative when tested by Western blot. While our sample sizes permitted high probabilities of detecting TSE assuming 1% population prevalence in several common scavengers (93%, 87%, and 87% for raccoons, opossums, and coyotes, respectively), insufficient sample sizes for other species precluded similar conclusions. One cannot rule out successful cross-species TSE transmission to scavengers, but the results suggest that such transmission is not frequent in the CWD-affected area of Wisconsin. The need for further surveillance of scavenger species, especially those known to be susceptible to TSE (e.g., cat, American mink, raccoon), is highlighted in both a field and laboratory setting.

Avian Influenza Prevalence and Viral Shedding Routes in Minnesota Ring-Billed Gulls (Larus delawarensis).

Birds within the orders Charadriiformes (shorebirds, gulls) and Anseriformes (waterfowl) are reservoir hosts for avian influenza (AI) viruses, but their role in the transmission dynamics of AI viruses is unclear. To date, waterfowl have been the predominant focal species for most surveillance and epidemiological studies, yet gulls, in particular, have been shown to harbor reassortant AI viruses of both North American and Eurasian lineages and are underrepresented in North American surveillance efforts. To address this gap in surveillance, 1346 ring-billed gulls (Larus delawarensis) were sampled during spring and fall migrations and at three breeding sites in 2017 across Minnesota. Results indicate noticeable age-cohort dynamics in AI virus prevalence within ring-billed gulls in Minnesota. Immunologically naïve juveniles represented the cohort with the highest prevalence rate (57.8%). Regardless of age, more gulls had AI virus detected in oropharyngeal (OP) than in cloacal (CL) swabs. The high AI virus prevalence within ring-billed gulls, particularly in immunologically naïve birds, warrants further targeted surveillance efforts of ring-billed gulls and other closely related species.

Prevalencia de la influenza aviar y rutas de diseminación viral en gaviotas de Delaware (Larus delawarensis). Las aves de los órdenes Charadriiformes (aves costeras, gaviotas) y Anseriformes (aves acuáticas) son reservorios del virus de la influenza aviar, pero su papel en la dinámica de transmisión de los virus de la influenza aviar no está claro. Hasta la fecha, las aves acuáticas han sido las especies predominantemente bajo evaluación para la mayoría de los estudios epidemiológicos y de vigilancia, sin embargo, se ha demostrado que las gaviotas albergan virus de influenza reacomodados tanto de linajes de América del Norte como de Eurasia y están subrepresentadas en los esfuerzos de vigilancia de América del Norte. Para abordar este vacío en la vigilancia, se tomaron muestras de 1346 gaviotas de Delaware (Larus delawarensis) durante las migraciones de primavera y otoño y en tres sitios de reproducción en el año 2017 en todo el estado de Minnesota. Los resultados indican una notable dinámica de cohorte por edad en la prevalencia aparente del virus de la influenza aviar en gaviotas de Delaware en Minnesota. Las aves juveniles inmunológicamente no expuestas representaron la cohorte con la tasa de prevalencia más alta (57.8%). Independientemente de la edad, se detectaron más gaviotas con virus de la influenza aviar en los hisopos orofaríngeos que en los hisopos cloacales. La alta prevalencia del virus de la influenza aviar dentro de las gaviotas de Delaware, particularmente en aves inmunológicamente no expuestas, justifica esfuerzos adicionales de vigilancia de las gaviotas de Delaware y otras especies estrechamente relacionadas. Abbreviations: AI = avian influenza; ANY = positive results from any shedding route subspace; OP∩CL = oropharyngeal positive results that are also associated with cloacal positive results; CI = confidence interval; CL = cloacal; CL-OP = cloacal positive results that do not include oropharyngeal positive results; Ct = cycle threshold; HP = highly pathogenic; LP = low pathogenic; OP = oropharyngeal; OP-CL = oropharyngeal positive results that do not include cloacal positive results; RBGU = ring-billed gull; rRT-PCR = real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction; SA = sialic acid.

State-specific detection probabilities and disease prevalence.

Investigations of disease dynamics in wild animal populations often use estimated prevalence or incidence as a measure of true disease frequency. Such indices, almost always based solely on raw counts of infected and uninfected individuals, are often used as the basis for analysis of temporal and spatial dynamics of diseases. Generally, such studies do not account for potential differences in observer detection probabilities of host individuals stratified by biotic and/or abiotic factors. We demonstrate the potential effects of heterogeneity in state-specific detection probabilities on estimated disease prevalence using mark-recapture data from previous work in a House Finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) and Mycoplasma gallisepticum system. In this system, detection probabilities of uninfected finches were generally higher than infected individuals. We show that the magnitude and seasonal pattern of variation in estimated prevalence, corrected for differences in detection probabilities, differed markedly from uncorrected (apparent) prevalence. When the detection probability of uninfected individuals is higher than infected individuals (as in our study), apparent prevalence is negatively biased, and vice versa. In situations where state-specific detection probabilities strongly interact over time, we show that the magnitude and pattern of apparent prevalence can change dramatically; in such cases, observed variations in prevalence may be completely spurious artifacts of variation in detection probability, rather than changes in underlying disease dynamics. Accounting for differential detection probabilities in estimates of disease frequency removes a potentially confounding factor in studies seeking to identify biotic and/or abiotic drivers of disease dynamics. Given that detection probabilities of different groups of individuals are likely to change temporally and spatially in most field studies, our results underscore the importance of estimating and incorporating detection probabilities in estimated disease prevalence (specifically), and more generally, any ecological index used to estimate some parameter of interest. While a mark-recapture approach makes it possible to estimate detection probabilities, it is not always practical, especially at large scales. We discuss several alternative approaches and categorize the assumptions under which analysis of uncorrected prevalence may be acceptable.

Surveillance for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Wild Turkeys ( Meleagris gallopavo ) of Minnesota, USA during 2015 Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry.

An outbreak of a novel reassortant of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N2) virus (HPAIV) decimated domestic turkeys ( Meleagris gallopavo ) from March through mid-June, 2015 in the state of Minnesota, US. In response, as part of broader surveillance efforts in wild birds, we designed a pilot effort to sample and test hunter-harvested Wild Turkeys ( Meleagris gallopavo ) for HPAIV in Minnesota counties with known infected poultry facilities. We also collected opportunistic samples from dead Wild Turkeys or live Wild Turkeys showing neurologic signs (morbidity and mortality samples) reported by the public or state agency personnel. Cloacal and tracheal samples were collected from each bird and screened for avian influenza virus (AIV) RNA by real-time reverse transcription PCR. From 15 April to 28 May 2015, we sampled 84 hunter-harvested male Wild Turkeys in 11 Minnesota counties. From 7 April 2015 through 11 April 2016, we sampled an additional 23 Wild Turkeys in 17 Minnesota counties. We did not detect type A influenza or HPAIV from any samples, and concluded, at the 95% confidence level, that apparent shedding prevalence in male Wild Turkeys in central Minnesota was between 0% and 2.9% over the sampling period. The susceptibility of wild turkeys to HPAIV is unclear, but regular harvest seasons make this wild gallinaceous bird readily available for future AIV testing.

Characterization of experimental Mycoplasma gallisepticum infection in captive house finch flocks.

The use of controlled, horizontal-transmission experiments provides detailed information on the spread of disease within fixed social groups, which informs our understanding of disease dynamics both in an empirical and theoretical context. For that reason, we characterized in 2002, horizontal transmission of Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) in two flocks of 11 wild-caught house finches housed in outdoor aviaries over a 6-mo period. All birds were initially free of MG by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based test, rapid plate agglutination (RPA), and the scoring of physical signs. We inoculated one flock member bilaterally in the palpebral conjunctiva and reintroduced it into its cage. Index birds developed conjunctivitis within 3 to 5 days but died 13 and 20 days postinfection (PI) possibly because of very severe weather. The proportion of birds with physical signs increased gradually, reached 40% at 6 wk PI, and fluctuated around 40% until 21 wk PI. By the time our experiment ended at 24.5 wk PI, 28% of the birds still exhibited physical signs. Across both flocks, 80% of the birds developed unilateral or bilateral conjunctivitis, and several birds relapsed. The appearance of physical signs in new individuals occurred between 10 and 144 days PI (median 41 days PI). Physical signs lasted 1-172 days (median 42 days). Birds that became infected earlier during the experiment developed more severe conjunctivitis, and there was a tendency for birds that developed bilateral conjunctivitis to develop physical signs earlier. Most birds that developed physical signs of MG were also PCR- and RPA-positive, although we detected a single asymptomatic carrier and a single symptomatic false negative. No birds died as a result of secondary MG infection.

Dynamics of a novel pathogen in an avian host: Mycoplasmal conjunctivitis in house finches.

In early 1994, a novel strain of Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG)--a poultry pathogen with a world-wide distribution--emerged in wild house finches and within 3 years had reached epidemic proportions across their eastern North American range. The ensuing epizootic resulted in a rapid decline of the host population coupled with considerable seasonal fluctuations in prevalence. To understand the dynamics of this disease system, a multi-disciplinary team composed of biologists, veterinarians, microbiologists and mathematical modelers set forth to determine factors driving and influenced by this host-pathogen system. On a broad geographic scale, volunteer observers ("citizen scientists") collected and reported data used for calculating both host abundance and disease prevalence. The scale at which this monitoring initiative was conducted is unprecedented and it has been an invaluable source of data for researchers at the Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology to track the spread and magnitude of disease both spatially and temporally. At a finer scale, localized and intensive field studies provided data used to quantify the effects of disease on host demographic parameters via capture-mark-recapture modeling, effects of host behavior on disease and vice-versa, and the biological and genetic profiles of birds with known phenotypic characteristics. To balance the field-based component of the study, experiments were conducted with finches held in captivity to describe and quantify the effects of experimental infections on hosts in both individual and social settings. The confluence of these various elements of the investigation provided the foundation for construction of a general compartmentalized epidemiological model of the dynamics of the house finch-MG system. This paper serves several purposes including (i) a basic review of the pathogen, host, and epidemic cycle; (ii) an explanation of our research strategy; (iii) a basic review of results from the diverse multi-disciplinary approaches employed; and (iv) pertinent questions relevant to this and other wildlife disease studies that require further investigation.

Transmission of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer: implications for disease spread and management.

Few studies have evaluated the rate of infection or mode of transmission for wildlife diseases, and the implications of alternative management strategies. We used hunter harvest data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection rate and transmission modes, and address how alternative management approaches affect disease dynamics in a Wisconsin white-tailed deer population. Uncertainty regarding demographic impacts of CWD on cervid populations, human and domestic animal health concerns, and potential economic consequences underscore the need for strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Using maximum-likelihood methods to evaluate alternative multi-state deterministic models of CWD transmission, harvest data strongly supports a frequency-dependent transmission structure with sex-specific infection rates that are two times higher in males than females. As transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are an important and difficult-to-study class of diseases with major economic and ecological implications, our work supports the hypothesis of frequency-dependent transmission in wild deer at a broad spatial scale and indicates that effective harvest management can be implemented to control CWD prevalence. Specifically, we show that harvest focused on the greater-affected sex (males) can result in stable population dynamics and control of CWD within the next 50 years, given the constraints of the model. We also provide a quantitative estimate of geographic disease spread in southern Wisconsin, validating qualitative assessments that CWD spreads relatively slowly. Given increased discovery and distribution of CWD throughout North America, insights from our study are valuable to management agencies and to the general public concerned about the impacts of CWD on white-tailed deer populations.

Using auxiliary information to improve wildlife disease surveillance when infected animals are not detected: a Bayesian approach.

There are numerous situations in which it is important to determine whether a particular disease of interest is present in a free-ranging wildlife population. However adequate disease surveillance can be labor-intensive and expensive and thus there is substantial motivation to conduct it as efficiently as possible. Surveillance is often based on the assumption of a simple random sample, but this can almost always be improved upon if there is auxiliary information available about disease risk factors. We present a Bayesian approach to disease surveillance when auxiliary risk information is available which will usually allow for substantial improvements over simple random sampling. Others have employed risk weights in surveillance, but this can result in overly optimistic statements regarding freedom from disease due to not accounting for the uncertainty in the auxiliary information; our approach remedies this. We compare our Bayesian approach to a published example of risk weights applied to chronic wasting disease in deer in Colorado, and we also present calculations to examine when uncertainty in the auxiliary information has a serious impact on the risk weights approach. Our approach allows "apples-to-apples" comparisons of surveillance efficiencies between units where heterogeneous samples were collected.

Experimental evidence for transmission of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in house finches by fomites.

Ever since Mycoplasma gallisepticum emerged among house finches in North America, it has been suggested that bird aggregations at feeders are an important cause of the epidemic of mycoplasmal conjunctivitis because diseased birds could deposit droplets of pathogen onto the feeders and thereby promote indirect transmission by fomites. In this paper we bring the first experimental evidence that such transmission (bird-to-feeder-to-bird) does actually take place. House finches infected via this route, however, developed only mild disease and recovered much more rapidly than birds infected from the same source birds but directly into the conjunctiva. While it is certainly probable that house finch aggregations at artificial feeders enhance pathogen transmission, to some degree transmission of M. gallisepticum by fomites may serve to immunize birds against developing more severe infections. Some such birds develop M. gallisepticum antibodies, providing indication of an immune response, although no direct evidence of protection.