Estimating the burden of pertussis in young children on hospitals and emergency departments: a study using linked routinely collected data.

Potential underestimation of the health system burden of pertussis was investigated by linking administrative datasets including pertussis notifications, hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) presentations for 1 304 876 children aged <15 years in NSW, Australia. From 2005 to 2008, 3006 children had a pertussis notification, 455 were hospitalized and 644 had an ED presentation with a coded diagnosis of pertussis. Linking hospital and ED records with pertussis notifications identified 140 hospitalizations and 735 ED presentations which occurred ± 7 days from notification but did not have a diagnosis of pertussis recorded. These additional events were more likely to have a diagnosis of bronchiolitis, upper respiratory infection and cough compared to all other admissions and presentations. Including these additional events significantly increased the proportion of notified cases that were hospitalized or visited EDs, particularly for those aged 5 to <15 years. Linked administrative data allowed more comprehensive estimation of the health system burden of pertussis.

Change in smoking status during two consecutive pregnancies: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate changes in tobacco smoking in two consecutive pregnancies and factors associated with the change. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: New South Wales, Australia, 2000-10. POPULATION: A total of 183,385 women having first and second singleton pregnancies. METHODS: Descriptive and multivariable logistic regression analyses of perinatal data linked to hospital admission data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of women smoking during their first pregnancy who quit by their second, and of women not smoking in their first pregnancy who did smoke during their second. RESULTS: Among 22,761 smokers in the first pregnancy, 33.5% had quit by their second. Among 160,624 non-smokers in their first pregnancy, 3.6% smoked during their second. Women who were aged ≥25 years, were married, born in a non-English speaking country, used private obstetric care, and lived in a socio-economically advantaged area were more likely to quit or less likely to start smoking in the second pregnancy. Smokers who had gestational hypertension (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.36, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.23-1.51), a large-for-gestational-age infant (OR 1.66, 95% CI, 1.46-1.89), and a stillbirth (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.06-1.94) were more likely to quit, whereas smokers whose infant was small-for-gestational-age (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.60-0.70) or admitted to special care nursery (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.81-0.94) were less likely to quit. Among non-smokers in the first pregnancy, the risk of smoking in the second pregnancy increased with late antenatal attendance (e.g. ≥26 weeks, OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.14-1.48), gestational diabetes (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07-1.45), preterm birth (e.g. spontaneous, OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.10-1.43), caesarean section (e.g. prelabour, OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.01-1.26), and infant small-for-gestational-age (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.26-1.48) or required special care nursery (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.23). Inter-pregnancy interval of ≥3 years was associated with either change in smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: Most smokers continue to smoke in their next pregnancy, even among those who experienced poor outcomes. Intensive interventions should be explored and offered to women at the highest risk.

Prospective cohort study of body mass index and the risk of hospitalisation: findings from 246361 participants in the 45 and Up Study.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the risk of hospital admission in relation to fine increments in body mass index (BMI). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Population-based prospective cohort study of 246,361 individuals aged greater than or equal to 45 years, from New South Wales, Australia, recruited from 2006-2009. Self-reported data on BMI and potential confounding/mediating factors were linked to hospital admission and death data. MAIN OUTCOMES: Cox-models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of incident all-cause and diagnosis-specific hospital admission (excluding same day) in relation to BMI. RESULTS: There were 61,583 incident hospitalisations over 479,769 person-years (py) of observation. In men, hospitalisation rates were lowest for BMI 20-<25 kg m(-2) (age-standardised rate: 120/1000 py) and in women for BMI 18.5-<25 kg m(-2) (102/1000 py); above these levels, rates increased steadily with increasing BMI; rates were 203 and 183/1000 py, for men and women with BMI 35-50 kg m(-2), respectively. This pattern was observed regardless of baseline health status, smoking status and physical activity levels. After adjustment, the RRs (95% confidence interval) per 1 kg m(-2) increase in BMI from ≥ 20 kg m(-2) were 1.04(1.03-1.04) for men and 1.04(1.04-1.05) for women aged 45-64; corresponding RRs for ages 65-79 were 1.03(1.02-1.03) and 1.03(1.03-1.04); and for ages ≥ 80 years, 1.01(1.00-1.01) and 1.01(1.01-1.02). Hospitalisation risks were elevated for a large range of diagnoses, including a number of circulatory, digestive, musculoskeletal and respiratory diseases, while being protective for just two-fracture and hernia. CONCLUSIONS: Above normal BMI, the RR of hospitalisation increases with even small increases in BMI, less so in the elderly. Even a small downward shift in BMI, among those who are overweight not just those who are obese, could result in a substantial reduction in the risk of hospitalisation.

Examining area-level variation in service organisation and delivery across the breadth of primary healthcare. Usefulness of measures constructed from routine data.

BACKGROUND: Australia has a universal healthcare system, yet organisation and delivery of primary healthcare (PHC) services varies across local areas. Understanding the nature and extent of this variation is essential to improve quality of care and health equity, but this has been hampered by a lack of suitable measures across the breadth of effective PHC systems. Using a suite of measures constructed at the area-level, this study explored their application in assessing area-level variation in PHC organisation and delivery. METHODS: Routinely collected data from New South Wales, Australia were used to construct 13 small area-level measures of PHC service organisation and delivery that best approximated access (availability, affordability, accommodation) comprehensiveness and coordination. Regression analyses and pairwise Pearson's correlations were used to examine variation by area, and by remoteness and area disadvantage. RESULTS: PHC service delivery varied geographically at the small-area level-within cities and more remote locations. Areas in major cities were more accessible (all measures), while in remote areas, services were more comprehensive and coordinated. In disadvantaged areas of major cities, there were fewer GPs (most disadvantaged quintile 0.9[SD 0.1] vs least 1.0[SD 0.2]), services were more affordable (97.4%[1.6] bulk-billed vs 75.7[11.3]), a greater proportion were after-hours (10.3%[3.0] vs 6.2[2.9]) and for chronic disease care (28%[3.4] vs 17.6[8.0]) but fewer for preventive care (50.7%[3.8] had cervical screening vs 62.5[4.9]). Patterns were similar in regional locations, other than disadvantaged areas had less after-hours care (1.3%[0.7] vs 6.1%[3.9]). Measures were positively correlated, except GP supply and affordability in major cities (-0.41, p < .01). IMPLICATIONS: Application of constructed measures revealed inequity in PHC service delivery amenable to policy intervention. Initiatives should consider the maldistribution of GPs not only by remoteness but also by area disadvantage. Avenues for improvement in disadvantaged areas include preventative care across all regions and after-hours care in regional locations.

Parity: A key measure of confounding in data-linkage studies of outcomes after medically assisted reproduction.

Parity is a potential confounder of the association between medically assisted reproduction (MAR) and health outcomes. This concept paper describes a population-based record linkage study design for selecting MAR-unexposed women matched to the parity of MAR-exposed women, at the time of the first exposure to MAR. Women exposed to MAR were identified from claims for government subsidies for relevant procedures and prescription medicines, linked to perinatal records. Women unexposed to MAR were identified from linked perinatal and death records, matched to exposed women by age, rurality, age of first child (if any) and parity at the date of first MAR. The availability of a longitudinal, whole-of-population dataset ("population spine") based on enrolments in Australia's universal health insurance scheme was a critical design element. The example application examines cancer risk in women after exposure to MAR. Parity is a confounder in this setting because it is associated with MAR and hormone-sensitive cancers.

Chronic pain in Australia: a prevalence study.

This study reports chronic pain prevalence in a randomly selected sample of the adult Australian population. Data were collected by Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) using randomly generated telephone numbers and a two-stage stratified sample design. Chronic pain was defined as pain experienced every day for three months in the six months prior to interview. There were 17,543 completed interviews (response rate=70.8%). Chronic pain was reported by 17.1% of males and 20.0% of females. For males, prevalence peaked at 27.0% in the 65--69 year age group and for females, prevalence peaked at 31.0% in the oldest age group (80--84 years). Having chronic pain was significantly associated with older age, female gender, lower levels of completed education, and not having private health insurance; it was also strongly associated with receiving a disability benefit (adjusted OR=3.89, P<0.001) or unemployment benefit (adjusted OR=1.99, P<0.001); being unemployed for health reasons (adjusted OR=6.41, P<0.001); having poor self-rated health (adjusted OR=7.24, P<0.001); and high levels of psychological distress (adjusted OR=3.16, P<0.001). Eleven per cent of males and 13.5% of females in the survey reported some degree of interference with daily activities caused by their pain. Prevalence of interference was highest in the 55--59 year age group in both males (17.2%) and females (19.7%). Younger respondents with chronic pain were proportionately most likely to report interference due to pain, affecting 84.3% of females and 75.9% of males aged 20--24 years with chronic pain. Within the subgroup of respondents reporting chronic pain, the presence of interference with daily activities caused by pain was significantly associated with younger age; female gender; and not having private health insurance. There were strong associations between having interfering chronic pain and receiving disability benefits (adjusted OR=3.31, P<0.001) or being unemployed due to health reasons (adjusted OR=7.94, P<0.001, respectively). The results show that chronic pain impacts upon a large proportion of the adult Australian population, including the working age population, and is strongly associated with markers of social disadvantage.

Loglinear models using capture-recapture methods to estimate the size of a measles epidemic.

Cases of measles reported separately by doctors, hospitals, laboratories, and others are treated as separate captures and releases of the population of children aged up to 10 years who have been infected by measles in a recent epidemic. Loglinear models are used to assess the adequacy of fit of various models for capture-recapture and the size of the epidemic in different age groups is estimated.

Watching the Games: public health surveillance for the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To describe the development of the public health surveillance system for the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games; document its major findings; and discuss the implications for public health surveillance for future events. DESIGN: Planning for the system took almost three years. Its major components included increased surveillance of communicable diseases; presentations to sentinel emergency departments; medical encounters at Olympic venues; cruise ship surveillance; environmental and food safety inspections; surveillance for bioterrorism; and global epidemic intelligence. A daily report integrated data from all sources. SETTING: Sydney, Australia. Surveillance spanned the period 28 August to 4 October 2000. PARTICIPANTS: Residents of Sydney, athletes and officials, Australian and international visitors. MAIN RESULTS: No outbreaks of communicable diseases were detected. There were around 5% more presentations to Sydney emergency departments than in comparable periods in other years. Several incidents detected through surveillance, including injuries caused by broken glass, and a cluster of presentations related to the use of the drug ecstasy, prompted further action. CONCLUSIONS: Key elements in the success of public health surveillance for the Games included its careful planning, its comprehensive coverage of public health issues, and its timely reporting and communication processes. Future systems need to be flexible enough to detect the unexpected.

Epidemiological investigation of equid herpesvirus-4 (EHV-4) excretion assessed by nasal swabs taken from thoroughbred foals.

Equid herpesvirus-4 (EHV-4) was detected in nasal swabs taken from foals using a PCR based test and this information used to study the epidemiology of EHV-4 disease on three Australian Thoroughbred stud farms in NSW in 1992. There was a very high level of agreement (kappa value of 0.84) between the PCR results and virus isolation using cell culture techniques. There was a strong seasonal distribution of EHV-4 shedding. Twenty-five of 26 positive samples were collected in January and March with the remaining positive sample collected in February. Foals with clinical signs of upper respiratory tract infection per se were no more likely to be shedders of EHV-4 (odds ratio [OR] 1.4, 95% confidence limits [CL] 0.5-3.8). However, EHV-4 was more likely to be isolated from foals exhibiting copious serous or mucopurulent nasal discharge than those with no clinical signs (OR 4.6, 95% CL 1.1-19.0 and OR 2.5, 95% CL 0.8-8.0, respectively). The month of the year was more important than weaning or age as a risk factor for excretion of EHV-4. Male foals and those with a history of respiratory disease that had required veterinary treatment were more likely to shed EHV-4.

Parental smoking and respiratory illnesses in Australian children aged 0-4 years: ABS 1989-90 National Health Survey results.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the associations between parental smoking and respiratory infections in Australian children aged 0-4 years. METHODS: Data from the ABS 1989-90 National Health Survey were used. The exposure variables examined were maternal, paternal and combined family smoking. Outcome variables were parent-reported chronic or recent asthma, asthma wheeze, bronchitis, influenza, common cold, cough, otitis media and other respiratory conditions. Logistic regression techniques were used to control for confounding by socio-economic status, child's sex, maternal education, place of residence, ethnicity and family size. RESULTS: Of the 4,281 children in the sample, 45% lived in households with one or more current smokers and 29% had a mother who smoked. Maternal (but not paternal) smoking was significantly associated with asthma (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.19-1.94) and asthma wheeze (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.26-1.80). No other significant associations were observed. Positive and significant dose response relationships were found between the amount of maternal smoking and both asthma variables. Population attributable risks were calculated and almost 13% of asthma and asthma wheeze in 0-4 year old Australian children in 1989-90 was estimated to be due to maternal smoking. CONCLUSION: Large numbers of Australian children live in households with smokers. This study, like others, has shown an association between maternal smoking and respiratory illnesses in young children. Further strategies are needed to prevent or reduce young children's exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in their homes.

Cost-effectiveness of measles outbreak intervention strategies.

In this study, we compared the likely cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for controlling a school-based measles outbreak. The analysis involved assessing the expected costs and number of cases in a school-based outbreak of measles, with no intervention and with each of six control strategies. The marginal cost per case prevented ranged from $32.90 when only previously unvaccinated school children were offered vaccination to $6795 when vaccination was extended to the siblings of school children aged 6 to 12 months. This study provided further evidence of the cost-effectiveness of vaccination in outbreak control, and yielded useful information to inform control strategies in the event of a school-based outbreak. Decisions about which groups of children to aim at and whether to conduct school-based clinics will be influenced by local circumstances, particularly the baseline measles vaccination rate and the measles attack rate among infants.

Genetic structure of populations of beta-haemolytic Lancefield group C streptococci from horses and their association with disease.

The genetic structure of beta-haemolytic Lancefield group C streptococci isolated from horses in Australia was examined by multilocus enzyme electrophoresis. The 249 isolates comprised 70 classified phenotypically as Streptococcus equi subspecies equi, 177 classified as S equi subspecies zooepidemicus and two which were unclassifiable. Forty-one electrophoretic types were identified which could be classified into three major clusters, A, B and C. Of the isolates, 178 fell into cluster B (types 4 to 22) and lay within a genetic distance of 0.36. Sixty-nine of the 70 S equi subspecies equi isolates fell into type 12, which suggests that they were members of a single clone, and the isolates from abscesses were significantly more likely to belong to type 12 than those from horses with no clinical signs (P < 0.001). There were no other significant associations between electrophoretic types or clusters and the isolation of the organism from particular sites. These data suggested that S zooepidemicus may be the archetypal species from which the clone designated subspecies equi has been derived. If isolates of the subspecies equi from other geographical regions also prove to be members of electrophoretic type 12, this hypothesis would be strengthened.

Strangles in horse studs: incidence, risk factors and effect of vaccination.

A questionnaire survey of 179 horse studs in New South Wales was conducted to estimate the incidence of strangles during 1985 to 1988, to identify risk factors for strangles outbreaks and to assess the effect of strangles vaccination. Forty-nine of the studs (27.4%) had at least one strangles outbreak during this period and 62 studs (34.6%) had at least one case of strangles. The average incidence of strangles was 2.1 cases per 100 horses per year. The risk of strangles increased progressively with the total horse population and rose markedly when more than 100 mares had been served in the 1988-89 season. Certain types of feeders, fences and water sources were also significantly associated with outbreaks of strangles. Strangles vaccine was used on 63 studs (35.2%). Thirty-seven of these (58.7%) used the manufacturer's recommended vaccination regime. When other risk factors were taken into account, vaccination had no significant effect on the likelihood of a strangles outbreak.

Exploring disparities in acute myocardial infarction events between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians: roles of age, gender, geography and area-level disadvantage.

We investigated disparities in rates of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in the 199 Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) in New South Wales, Australia. Using routinely collected and linked hospital and mortality data from 2002 to 2007, we developed multilevel Poisson regression models to estimate the relative rates of first AMI events in the study period accounting for area of residence. Rates of AMI in Aboriginal people were more than two times that in non-Aboriginal people, with the disparity greatest in more disadvantaged and remote areas. AMI rates in Aboriginal people varied significantly by SLA, as did the Aboriginal to non-Aboriginal rate ratio. We identified almost 30 priority areas for universal and targeted preventive interventions that had both high rates of AMI for Aboriginal people and large disparities in rates.

Communicable disease outbreaks in long day care centres in western Sydney: occurrence and risk factors.

We surveyed the directors of all 92 long day care centres in western Sydney to document the occurrence of communicable disease outbreaks during 1992 and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of these outbreaks. A total of 6092 children were enrolled at the centres, of whom 530 (8.7%) were less than 3 years old. Most centres (80.4%) reported at least one outbreak of communicable disease. Diarrhoea was the most commonly reported outbreak type (60 outbreaks), followed by conjunctivitis, head louse infestation and chicken pox (46, 44 and 24 outbreaks, respectively). Chicken pox outbreaks had the largest mean number of cases per outbreak (9.6) and the longest mean outbreak duration (4.4 weeks). Centres with a large total enrollment (50 or more children), those that were open for 12 or more hours each day and those which had commenced operating in 1990 or more recently were generally more likely to report outbreaks, particularly of diarrhoea. The vast majority of communicable disease outbreaks (92.1%) were handled by day-care staff without seeking outside assistance. Day-care centre directors may be unaware of the health services that could help them. We need to work more closely with long day care centres, and to focus preventative efforts on large centres, those open for long hours, and newly opened centres.

An epidemiological study of an outbreak of Q fever in a secondary school.

Five cases of clinical Q fever were identified amongst students and staff of a Somerset secondary school between 23 October 1987 and 21 December 1987. Five goats which were kept at the school were found to have antibodies to Coxiella burnetii phase II. A cross-sectional study was conducted at the school in July 1988. A single CF test was used to identify evidence of prior infection, and a self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data on exposure variables and illness during 1987. Four hundred and ninety-nine eligible subjects took part in the study, and serological information was obtained from 461 of these. Eighty-seven subjects (18.9%) had CF titres of 20 or greater. It was estimated that only 1 in every 30 individuals with evidence of past C. burnetii infection had been recognized as a clinical case of Q fever. Antibody positive subjects were more likely to have been off school sick and to report having suffered chest pain than negative subjects. Contact with school animals, specifically cleaning the school poultry, collecting their eggs and visiting a school goat on the day of kidding, was associated with the presence of antibodies to C. burnetii. However, a large proportion of the antibody positives (24.2%) had no known contact with the school animals. Spread of organisms, either wind-borne or in straw or manure, may have been responsible for the high prevalence of unexplained infection.

Measles outbreak in western Sydney. Vaccine failure or failure to vaccinate?

OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of measles vaccine during a measles outbreak, and to assess whether age at vaccination was a risk factor for measles vaccine failure. DESIGN: A matched case-control study. SETTING: The five primary schools in western Sydney with the largest number of measles cases during the June to December 1993 outbreak. SUBJECTS: Seventy-nine children aged 5-9 years with an illness consistent with a clinical definition for measles. Two controls per case were selected from children in the same classroom. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated measles vaccine effectiveness by age of the child at vaccination and vaccination status: "unvaccinated"; "parental recall" (parents stated the child was vaccinated but no record could be found); and "record" (record including date of vaccination available). RESULTS: The estimated vaccine effectiveness was 94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 83%-98%) in the "record" group, and 81% (95% CI, 46%-93%) in the "parental recall" group. Vaccine effectiveness did not differ significantly with age at vaccination (under 12 months of age 96% [64%-99%]; 12-14 months 95% [81%-99%]; and 15 months and over 93% [80%-98%]). CONCLUSION: Vaccination records should be used to calculate a vaccine's effectiveness as parental recall may not be sufficiently accurate. The high vaccine effectiveness in the "record" group (94%) makes it unlikely that low vaccine effectiveness was the cause of the outbreak. More effort is needed to increase vaccine coverage to at least 95% in all population subgroups.

Monitoring acute diseases during the Sydney 2000 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games (the XXVII Olympiad) will be the biggest peacetime event ever held in Australia. During the Games, all public health decisions will be centralised, with daily briefing sessions held to review emerging public health issues and facilitate responses. Infectious diseases will be monitored and reported through the Olympic Surveillance System, with particular attention to foodborne diseases and conditions spread via the respiratory route. This system relies heavily on the cooperation of key notifiers such as emergency departments, laboratories and general practitioners. The lessons learned during the Games, and the new and enhanced systems and linkages that have been developed to support it, will strengthen future disease surveillance in NSW.

Prospective study of diarrhoeal outbreaks in child long-daycare centres in western Sydney.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate outbreaks of diarrhoeal illness in children attending long-daycare centres (LDCs), to characterise parasitic, bacterial and viral isolates from the children's faeces and to identify individual and LDC risk factors for diarrhoea. DESIGN: Eleven-month prospective case-control study of diarrhoeal outbreaks among children in LDCs. SUBJECTS: 2368 children attending 35 LDCs in the western Sydney area. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Frequency of diarrhoeal outbreaks, rate of attack and spread to family members; pathogens isolated from stools; and individual and LDC risk factors. RESULTS: The overall incidence of diarrhoeal disease was low (0.28 outbreaks per centre per year and 0.056 outbreak-associated cases per child-year). Attack rates during outbreaks varied widely (4%-55%; mean, 15%), as did secondary spread rates to family members (1%-15%; mean, 9%). Pathogens were isolated from 7% of symptomatic children and 7% of controls; no outbreak was shown to be caused by a recognised pathogen. Children with outbreak-associated diarrhoeal illness were more likely to have suffered vomiting, poor appetite, lack of energy, fever and to have taken antibiotics in the previous week than other children. Hygiene practices varied widely among centres. CONCLUSIONS: We found low incidence and morbidity from diarrhoeal illness in Australian urban LDCs. Diarrhoea in children in LDCs may be caused predominantly by non-infectious factors such as diet and antibiotic exposure. Current hygiene measures in LDCs seem adequate to prevent and contain outbreaks of infectious diarrhoea.

Legionellosis linked with a hotel car park--how many were infected?

An outbreak of legionellosis associated with a hotel in Sydney, Australia, and the subsequent epidemiological and environmental investigations are described. Four cases of Legionnaires' disease were notified to the Public Health Unit. A cross-sectional study of 184 people who attended a seminar at the hotel was carried out. Serological and questionnaire data were obtained for 152 (83%) of these. Twenty-eight (18%) respondents reported symptoms compatible with legionellosis. Thirty-three subjects (22%) had indirect fluorescent antibody (IFA) titres to Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (Lp-1) of 128 or higher. The only site which those with symptoms of legionellosis and IFA titre > or = 128 were more likely to have visited than controls was the hotel car park (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 14.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.8-123.1). Those with symptoms compatible with legionellosis, but whose IFA titres were < 128 were also more likely to have visited the hotel car park (adjusted OR 4.4, 95% CI: 1.5-12.9). Seroprevalence of Lp-1 antibodies was higher in those who attended the seminar than in a population sample of similar age. Findings suggested that the 4 cases represented a small fraction of all those infected, and highlighted difficulties in defining illness caused by Lp-1 and in interpreting serology.