A Bayesian semiparametric approach for inference on the population partly conditional mean from longitudinal data with dropout.

Studies of memory trajectories using longitudinal data often result in highly nonrepresentative samples due to selective study enrollment and attrition. An additional bias comes from practice effects that result in improved or maintained performance due to familiarity with test content or context. These challenges may bias study findings and severely distort the ability to generalize to the target population. In this study, we propose an approach for estimating the finite population mean of a longitudinal outcome conditioning on being alive at a specific time point. We develop a flexible Bayesian semiparametric predictive estimator for population inference when longitudinal auxiliary information is known for the target population. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results to untestable assumptions and further compare our approach to other methods used for population inference in a simulation study. The proposed approach is motivated by 15-year longitudinal data from the Betula longitudinal cohort study. We apply our approach to estimate lifespan trajectories in episodic memory, with the aim to generalize findings to a target population.

Do reductions of daily activities mediate the relationship between COVID-19 restrictions and mental ill-health among older persons in Europe?

OBJECTIVE: Previous research has shown that daily activities are crucial for mental health among older people, and that such activities declined during the COVID-19 pandemic. While previous studies have confirmed a link between stringent restrictions and an increase in mental ill-health, the role of daily activities as a mediator in this relationship remains underexplored. We analyzed whether reductions in daily activities mediated the impact of these COVID-19 restrictions on mental ill-health during the pandemic's initial phase. METHODS: We used data from Wave 8 SHARE Corona Survey covering 41,409 respondents from 25 European countries and Israel as well as data on COVID-19 restrictions from the Oxford Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). Multilevel regression and multilevel-mediation analysis were used to examine the relationships between restrictions, daily activities and mental ill-health. RESULTS: Reductions in walking and shopping showed a notably stronger association with increases in mental ill-health compared to social activities. Furthermore, declines in walking could account for about a quarter of the relationship between restrictions and increased mental ill-health, but the mediating effects of the other activates were negligible. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the essential role of maintaining daily activities, particularly walking, to mitigate the negative psychological effects of pandemic-related restrictions among older populations in Europe.

Subjective cognitive complaints and its associations to response inhibition and neural activation in patients with stress-related exhaustion disorder.

Stress-related exhaustion is associated with cognitive deficits, measured subjectively using questionnaires targeting everyday slips and failures or more objectively as performance on cognitive tests. Yet, only weak associations between subjective and objective cognitive measures in this group has been presented, theorized to reflect recruitment of compensational resources during cognitive testing. This explorative study investigated how subjectively reported symptoms of cognitive functioning and burnout levels relate to performance as well as neural activation during a response inhibition task. To this end, 56 patients diagnosed with stress-related exhaustion disorder (ED; ICD-10 code F43.8A) completed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using a Flanker paradigm. In order to investigate associations between neural activity and subjective cognitive complaints (SCCs) and burnout, respectively, scores on the Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire (PRMQ) and the Shirom-Melamed Burnout Questionnaire (SMBQ) were added as covariates of interest to a general linear model at the whole-brain level. In agreement with previous research, the results showed that SCCs and burnout levels were largely unrelated to task performance. Moreover, we did not see any correlations between these self-report measures and altered neural activity in frontal brain regions. Instead, we observed an association between the PRMQ and increased neural activity in an occipitally situated cluster. We propose that this finding may reflect compensational processes at the level of basic visual attention which could go unnoticed in cognitive testing but still be reflected in the experience of deficits in everyday cognitive functioning.

Memory profiles predict dementia over 23-28 years in normal but not successful aging.

OBJECTIVES: Prospective studies suggest that memory deficits are detectable decades before clinical symptoms of dementia emerge. However, individual differences in long-term memory trajectories prior to diagnosis need to be further elucidated. The aim of the current study was to investigate long-term dementia and mortality risk for individuals with different memory trajectory profiles in a well-characterized population-based sample. METHODS: 1062 adults (aged 45-80 years) who were non-demented at baseline were followed over 23-28 years. Dementia and mortality risk were studied for three previously classified episodic memory trajectory groups: maintained high performance (Maintainers; 26%), average decline (Averages; 64%), and accelerated decline (Decliners; 12%), using multistate modeling to characterize individuals' transitions from an initial non-demented state, possibly to a state of dementia and/or death. RESULTS: The memory groups showed considerable intergroup variability in memory profiles, starting 10-15 years prior to dementia diagnosis, and prior to death. A strong relationship between memory trajectory group and dementia risk was found. Specifically, Decliners had more than a fourfold risk of developing dementia compared to Averages. In contrast, Maintainers had a 2.6 times decreased dementia risk compared to Averages, and in addition showed no detectable memory decline prior to dementia diagnosis. A similar pattern of association was found for the memory groups and mortality risk, although only among non-demented. CONCLUSION: There was a strong relationship between accelerated memory decline and dementia, further supporting the prognostic value of memory decline. The intergroup differences, however, suggest that mechanisms involved in successful memory aging may delay symptom onset.

Sociodemographic Factors and Adjustment of Daily Activities During the COVID-19 Pandemic - Findings from the SHARE Corona Survey.

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, older people across Europe have adjusted their daily activities as personal risk avoidance and as an amendment to policy recommendations and restrictions. In this study, we use multilevel logistic regressions to examine to what extent sociodemographic factors are associated with activity reduction among the older population (50+) in Europe and whether these associations are moderated by governmental policy responses to COVID-19. By combining data for~35,000 respondents from the SHARE Corona Survey on reported changes in daily activities and stringency of restrictions at the national level, we find that older age, poorer health and being female versus male were (consistently) associated with greater activity reduction across all activities both in countries with weak and in those with strong restrictions. Associations between education, employment and living situation, on the one hand, and activity reduction, on the other, were weaker and less consistent. We conclude that differences between sociodemographic groups are rather similar for countries with weak and those with strong restrictions and hence argue that group-specific policy recommendation are relevant independent of stringency recommendations.

Evaluating a frontostriatal working-memory updating-training paradigm in Parkinson's disease: the iPARK trial, a double-blinded randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive decline and dementia are common in Parkinson's disease (PD). Cognitive deficits have been linked to the depletion of dopamine in the nigrostriatal pathway, but pharmacological treatments for PD have little evidence of improving or delaying cognitive decline. Therefore, exploring non-pharmacological treatment options is important. There have been some promising results of cognitive training interventions in PD, especially for improvements in working memory and executive functions. Yet, existing studies are often underpowered, lacking appropriate control condition, long term follow-up, a thorough description of the intervention and characteristics of the participants. Working memory updating training has previously shown to increase striatal activation in healthy young and old participants as well as dopaminergic neurotransmission in healthy young participants. In the light of dopamine dysfunction in PD, with negative effects on both motor and cognitive functions it is of interest to study if an impaired striatal system can be responsive to a non-invasive, non-pharmacological intervention. METHODS AND DESIGN: The iPARK trial is a double-blinded, randomized controlled trial with a parallel-group design that aims to recruit 80 patients with PD (during the period 02/2017-02/2023). Included patients need to have PD, Hoehn and Yahr staging I-III, be between 45 to 75 years of age and not have a diagnosis of dementia. All patients will undergo 30 sessions (6-8 weeks) of web-based cognitive training performed from home. The target intervention is a process-based training program targeting working memory updating. The placebo program is a low dose short-term memory program. A battery of neuropsychological tests and questionnaires will be performed before training, directly after training, and 16 weeks after training. DISCUSSION: We expect that the iPARK trial will provide novel and clinically useful information on whether updating training is an effective cognitive training paradigm in PD. Further, it will hopefully contribute to a better understanding of cognitive function in PD and provide answers regarding cognitive plasticity as well as determining critical factors for a responsive striatal system. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov registry number: NCT03680170 , registry name: "Cognitive Training in Parkinson's Disease: the iPARK study", retrospectively registered on the 21st of September 2018. The inclusion of the first participant was the 1st of February 2017.

A nationwide Swedish study of age at retirement and dementia risk.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this nationwide study was to examine the association between age at retirement and dementia risk, with a follow-up period of up to 24 years. METHODS/DESIGN: This cohort study comprised Swedish citizens born in 1930 who were alive in the year 1990 (n = 63 505). The cohort was followed for incidents of dementia through data provided by the Swedish National Patient Register and the Cause of Death Register. Age at retirement and socioeconomic variables were retrieved from Statistics Sweden. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 5181 individuals received a dementia diagnosis. Competing risk regression models, adjusted for sex, education, marital status, occupation, and previous history of cardiovascular diseases, showed that later-than-average retirement age was associated with decreased dementia risk. CONCLUSIONS: The present results support the idea that individuals who retired at an older age have a decrease risk of dementia. However, as this was an observation study, unmeasured factors, such as premorbid cognitive level and genetic predisposition, may have influenced our findings and remains to be elucidated in future studies.

Subjective Olfactory Loss in Older Adults Concurs with Long-Term Odor Identification Decline.

Olfactory impairments may provide early indications of future health outcomes in older adults. Thus, an important question concerns whether these impairments can be self-assessed. Previous findings of cross-sectional studies indicate low correlations between self-reported olfactory function and objective olfactory performance. On the other hand, subjective olfactory impairments predict future dementia and mortality in longitudinal settings. No previous study has assessed the relationship between subjectively and objectively measured decline in olfaction over time. Based on data for 903 older adults derived from the Betula Study, a Swedish population-based prospective study, we tested whether rate-of-change in odor identification could be predicted from subjective olfactory decline over a time span of 10 years during which subjective and objective odor functions were assessed on 2 or 3 test occasions. Indeed, we found that participants who experienced subjective olfactory decline over the study period also had significantly steeper rates of decline in odor identification, even after adjusting for demographic, cognitive, and genetic factors that previously have been associated with performance in odor identification. This association was, however, not present in a subsample with baseline cognitive impairment. We interpret these results as evidence that when asked about whether they have an olfactory impairment or not, older persons are assessing intraindividual olfactory changes, rather than interindividual differences. Our results indicate that subjective olfactory loss reflects objective olfactory decline in cognitively intact older adults. This association might be harnessed to predict health outcomes and highlights the need to develop effective olfactory self-assessments.

Longitudinal Evidence for Increased Functional Response in Frontal Cortex for Older Adults with Hippocampal Atrophy and Memory Decline.

The functional organization of the frontal cortex is dynamic. Age-related increases in frontal functional responses have been shown during various cognitive tasks, but the cross-sectional nature of most past studies makes it unclear whether these increases reflect reorganization or stable individual differences. Here, we followed 130 older individuals' cognitive trajectories over 20-25 years with repeated neuropsychological assessments every 5th year, and identified individuals with stable or declining episodic memory. Both groups displayed significant gray matter atrophy over 2 successive magnetic resonance imaging sessions 4 years apart, but the decline group also had a smaller volume of the right hippocampus. Only individuals with declining memory demonstrated increased prefrontal functional responses during memory encoding and retrieval over the 4-year interval. Regions with increased functional recruitment were located outside, or on the borders of core task-related networks, indicating an expansion of these over time. These longitudinal findings offer novel insight into the mechanisms behind age-associated memory loss, and are consistent with a theoretical model in which hippocampus atrophy, past a critical threshold, induces episodic-memory decline and altered prefrontal functional organization.

Rehabilitation for improved cognition in patients with stress-related exhaustion disorder: RECO - a randomized clinical trial.

Stress-related exhaustion has been associated with selective and enduring cognitive impairments. However, little is known about how to address cognitive deficits in stress rehabilitation and how this influences stress recovery over time. The aim of this open-label, parallel randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03073772) was to investigate the long-term effects of 12 weeks cognitive or aerobic training on cognitive function, psychological health, and work ability for patients diagnosed with exhaustion disorder (ED). One-hundred-and-thirty-two patients (111 women) participating in multimodal stress rehabilitation were randomized to receive additional cognitive training (n = 44), additional aerobic training (n = 47), or no additional training (n = 41). Treatment effects were assessed before, immediately after and one-year post intervention. The primary outcome was global cognitive function. Secondary outcomes included domain-specific cognition, self-reported burnout, depression, anxiety, fatigue and work ability, aerobic capacity, and sick-leave levels. Intention-to-treat analysis revealed a small but lasting improvement in global cognitive functioning for the cognitive training group, paralleled by a large improvement on a trained updating task. The aerobic training group showed improvements in aerobic capacity and episodic memory immediately after training, but no long-term benefits. General improvements in psychological health and work ability were observed, with no difference between interventional groups. Our findings suggest that cognitive training may be a viable method to address cognitive impairments for patients with ED, whereas the effects of aerobic exercise on cognition may be more limited when performed during a restricted time period. The implications for clinical practice in supporting patients with ED to adhere to treatment are discussed.

Brain characteristics of individuals resisting age-related cognitive decline over two decades.

Some elderly appear to resist age-related decline in cognitive functions, but the neural correlates of successful cognitive aging are not well known. Here, older human participants from a longitudinal study were classified as successful or average relative to the mean attrition-corrected cognitive development across 15-20 years in a population-based sample (n = 1561). Fifty-one successful elderly and 51 age-matched average elderly (mean age: 68.8 years) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while performing an episodic memory face-name paired-associates task. Successful older participants had higher BOLD signal during encoding than average participants, notably in the bilateral PFC and the left hippocampus (HC). The HC activation of the average, but not the successful, older group was lower than that of a young reference group (n = 45, mean age: 35.3 years). HC activation was correlated with task performance, thus likely contributing to the superior memory performance of successful older participants. The frontal BOLD response pattern might reflect individual differences present from young age. Additional analyses confirmed that both the initial cognitive level and the slope of cognitive change across the longitudinal measurement period contributed to the observed group differences in BOLD signal. Further, the differences between the older groups could not be accounted for by differences in brain structure. The current results suggest that one mechanism behind successful cognitive aging might be preservation of HC function combined with a high frontal responsivity. These findings highlight sources for heterogeneity in cognitive aging and may hold useful information for cognitive intervention studies.

Predictors of cognitive aging profiles over 15 years: A longitudinal population-based study.

The present study aimed to characterize profiles of cognitive aging and how these can be predicted from interindividual differences in demographic, lifestyle, health, and genetic factors. The participants were 1,966 older adults (mean baseline age = 71.6 years; 62.9% female), free from dementia at baseline and with at least two cognitive assessments over the 15-year follow-up, from the population-based Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen. The cognitive assessment comprised tests of semantic and episodic memory, letter and category fluency, perceptual speed, and executive function. First, we estimated the level and change within each of the cognitive domains with linear mixed effect models, based on which we grouped our sample into participants with "maintained high cognition," "moderate cognitive decline," or "accelerated cognitive decline." Second, we analyzed determinants of group membership within each cognitive domain with multinomial logistic regression. Third, group memberships within each cognitive domain were used to derive general cognitive aging profiles with latent class analysis. Fourth, the determinants of these profile memberships were analyzed with multinomial logistic regression. Follow-up analyses targeted profiles and predictors specifically related to the rate of cognitive change. We identified three latent profiles of overall cognitive performance during the follow-up period with 31.6% of the sample having maintained high cognition, 50.6% having moderate cognitive decline, and 17.8% having accelerated cognitive decline. In multiadjusted analyses, maintained high cognition was predicted by female sex, higher education, and faster walking speed. Smoking, loneliness, and being an ε4 carrier were associated with a lower likelihood of maintained high cognition. Higher age, diagnosis of diabetes, depression, and carrying the apolipoprotein E ε4 allele increased the likelihood of accelerated cognitive decline. Factors at baseline that could significantly predict profile membership within the specific cognitive domains included age, sex, years of education, walking speed, diabetes, and the ε4 allele. Of note, these factors differed across cognitive domains. In sum, we identified demographic, lifestyle, health, and genetic factors of interindividual differences in domain-specific and general cognitive aging profiles, some of which are modifiable. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Efficiency Analysis of Item Response Theory Kernel Equating for Mixed-Format Tests.

This study aims to evaluate the performance of Item Response Theory (IRT) kernel equating in the context of mixed-format tests by comparing it to IRT observed score equating and kernel equating with log-linear presmoothing. Comparisons were made through both simulations and real data applications, under both equivalent groups (EG) and non-equivalent groups with anchor test (NEAT) sampling designs. To prevent bias towards IRT methods, data were simulated with and without the use of IRT models. The results suggest that the difference between IRT kernel equating and IRT observed score equating is minimal, both in terms of the equated scores and their standard errors. The application of IRT models for presmoothing yielded smaller standard error of equating than the log-linear presmoothing approach. When test data were generated using IRT models, IRT-based methods proved less biased than log-linear kernel equating. However, when data were simulated without IRT models, log-linear kernel equating showed less bias. Overall, IRT kernel equating shows great promise when equating mixed-format tests.

Predictors of loneliness onset and maintenance in European older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objectives: Loneliness is a major public health concern. Duration of loneliness is associated with severity of health outcomes, and further research is needed to direct interventions and social policy. This study aimed to identify predictors of the onset vs. the maintenance of loneliness in older adults before and during the pandemic using longitudinal data from the Survey of Health, Age, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Methods: Groupings of persistent, situational, and no loneliness were based on self-reports from an ordinary pre-pandemic SHARE wave and a peri-pandemic telephone interview. Predictors were identified and compared in three hierarchical binary regression analyses, with independent variables added in blocks of geographic region, demographics, pre-pandemic social network, pre-pandemic health, pandemic-related individual, and country level variables. Results: Self-reported loneliness levels for the persistent, situational, and no loneliness groups were stable and distinct through 7 years preceding the pre-pandemic baseline measure. Shared predictors were chronic diseases, female sex, depression, and no cohabitant partner. Persistent loneliness was uniquely predicted by low network satisfaction (OR: 2.04), functional limitations (OR: 1.40), and a longer country-level isolation period for older adults (OR: 1.24). Conclusion: Interventions may target persons with depression, functional limitations, chronic health issues, and no cohabitant partner. The added burden of the length of isolation on those who are already lonely should be taken into account when employing social policies that target older adults. Further research should distinguish between situational and persistent loneliness, and seek to identify predictors of chronic loneliness onset.

Mental fatigue, cognitive performance and autonomic response following sustained mental activity in clinical burnout.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of sustained mental activity on perceptions of mental fatigue, cognitive performance, and autonomic response in patients with clinical burnout as compared to a healthy control group. METHODS: Patients with clinical burnout (n = 30) and healthy control participants (n = 30) completed a 3-hour test session, in which they were administered a set of cognitive tests before and after an effortful cognitive task with concurrent sound exposure. Perceptions of mental fatigue and task demands (mental effort and concentration difficulties) were assessed repeatedly over the course of the test session. Heart rate variability was recorded to index autonomic response. RESULTS: In comparison with controls, perceived mental fatigue increased earlier in the session for the clinical burnout group and did not recover following a short rest period. Throughout the session, patients rated the tasks as more demanding and showed less improvement on measures of attention and processing speed, inhibition and working memory. While autonomic responses were initially comparable, there was a unique decrease in high-frequency heart rate variability in the clinical burnout group after extended testing and exposure. CONCLUSION: Patients with clinical burnout are affected differently than healthy controls by sustained mental activity, as reflected by ratings of perceived mental fatigue, aspects of cognitive performance and autonomic response. Further investigation into the role of autonomic regulation in relation to cognitive symptoms in clinical burnout is warranted.

Longitudinal Effects of Herpesviruses on Multiple Cognitive Outcomes in Healthy Elderly Adults.

BACKGROUND: Herpesviruses have been proposed to be involved in Alzheimer's disease development as potentially modifiable pathology triggers. OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations of serum antibodies for herpes simplex virus (HSV)-1 and cytomegalovirus (CMV) and anti-herpesvirus treatment with cognitive outcomes in relation to interactions with APOE ɛ4. METHODS: The study included 849 participants in the population-based Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors study. Cognitive performance at the ages of 75 and 80 years was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), trail-making test (TMT) A and B, and 7-minute screening test (7MS). RESULTS: Anti- HSV-1 IgG positivity was associated cross-sectionally with worse performance on the MMSE, TMT-A, TMT-B, 7MS, enhanced free recall, and verbal fluency tests (p = 0.016, p = 0.016, p < 0.001, p = 0.001, p = 0.033, and p < 0.001, respectively), but not orientation or clock drawing. Cognitive scores did not decline over time and longitudinal changes did not differ according to HSV-1 positivity. Anti- CMV IgG positivity was not associated cross-sectionally with cognition, but TMT-B scores declined more in anti- CMV IgG carriers. Anti- HSV-1 IgG interacted with APOE ɛ4 in association with worse TMT-A and better enhanced cued recall. Anti- HSV IgM interacted with APOE ɛ4 and anti-herpesvirus treatment in association with worse TMT-A and clock drawing, respectively. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that HSV-1 is linked to poorer cognition in cognitively healthy elderly adults, including impairments in executive function, memory, and expressive language. Cognitive performance did not decline over time, nor was longitudinal decline associated with HSV-1.

Sixteen-Year Longitudinal Evaluation of Blood-Based DNA Methylation Biomarkers for Early Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation (DNAm), an epigenetic mark reflecting both inherited and environmental influences, has shown promise for Alzheimer's disease (AD) prediction. OBJECTIVE: Testing long-term predictive ability (>15 years) of existing DNAm-based epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) measures and identifying novel early blood-based DNAm AD-prediction biomarkers. METHODS: EAA measures calculated from Illumina EPIC data from blood were tested with linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) in a longitudinal case-control sample (50 late-onset AD cases; 51 matched controls) with prospective data up to 16 years before clinical onset, and post-onset follow-up. Novel DNAm biomarkers were generated with epigenome-wide LMMs, and Sparse Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis applied at pre- (10-16 years), and post-AD-onset time-points. RESULTS: EAA did not differentiate cases from controls during the follow-up time (p > 0.05). Three new DNA biomarkers showed in-sample predictive ability on average 8 years pre-onset, after adjustment for age, sex, and white blood cell proportions (p-values: 0.022-<0.00001). Our longitudinally-derived panel replicated nominally (p = 0.012) in an external cohort (n = 146 cases, 324 controls). However, its effect size and discriminatory accuracy were limited compared to APOEɛ4-carriership (OR = 1.38 per 1 SD DNAm score increase versus OR = 13.58 for ɛ4-allele carriage; AUCs = 77.2% versus 87.0%). Literature review showed low overlap (n = 4) across 3275 AD-associated CpGs from 8 published studies, and no overlap with our identified CpGs.

Association of Cardiovascular Risk Trajectory With Cognitive Decline and Incident Dementia.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular risk factors have a recently established association with cognitive decline and dementia, yet most studies examine this association through cross-sectional data, precluding an understanding of the longitudinal dynamics of such risk. The current study aims to explore how the ongoing trajectory of cardiovascular risk affects subsequent dementia and memory decline risk. We hypothesize that an accelerated, long-term accumulation of cardiovascular risk, as determined by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), will be more detrimental to cognitive and dementia state outcomes than a stable cardiovascular risk. METHODS: We assessed an initially healthy, community-dwelling sample recruited from the prospective cohort Betula study. Cardiovascular disease risk, as assessed by the FRS, episodic memory performance, and dementia status were measured at each 5-year time point (T) across 20 to 25 years. Analysis was performed with bayesian additive regression tree, a semiparametric machine-learning method, applied herein as a multistate survival analysis method. RESULTS: Of the 1,244 participants, cardiovascular risk increased moderately over time in 60% of sample, with observations of an accelerated increase in 18% of individuals and minimal change in 22% of individuals. An accelerated, as opposed to a stable, cardiovascular risk trajectory predicted an increased risk of developing Alzheimer disease dementia (average risk ratio [RR] 3.3-5.7, 95% CI 2.6-17.5 at T2, 1.9-6.7 at T5) or vascular dementia (average RR 3.3-4.1, 95% CI 1.1-16.6 at T2, 1.5-7.6 at T5) and was associated with an increased risk of memory decline (average RR 1.4-1.2, 95% CI 1-1.9 at T2, 1-1.5 at T5). A stable cardiovascular risk trajectory appeared to partially mitigate Alzheimer disease dementia risk for APOE ε4 carriers. DISCUSSION: The findings of the current study show that the longitudinal, cumulative trajectory of cardiovascular risk is predictive of dementia risk and associated with the emergence of memory decline. As a result, clinical practice may benefit from directing interventions at individuals with accelerating cardiovascular risk.

Bayesian semi-parametric G-computation for causal inference in a cohort study with MNAR dropout and death.

Causal inference with observational longitudinal data and time-varying exposures is often complicated by time-dependent confounding and attrition. The G-computation formula is one approach for estimating a causal effect in this setting. The parametric modeling approach typically used in practice relies on strong modeling assumptions for valid inference, and moreover depends on an assumption of missing at random, which is not appropriate when the missingness is missing not at random (MNAR) or due to death. In this work we develop a flexible Bayesian semi-parametric G-computation approach for assessing the causal effect on the subpopulation that would survive irrespective of exposure, in a setting with MNAR dropout. The approach is to specify models for the observed data using Bayesian additive regression trees, and then use assumptions with embedded sensitivity parameters to identify and estimate the causal effect. The proposed approach is motivated by a longitudinal cohort study on cognition, health, and aging, and we apply our approach to study the effect of becoming a widow on memory. We also compare our approach to several standard methods.

Cognitive Decline in Parkinson's Disease: A Subgroup of Extreme Decliners Revealed by a Data-Driven Analysis of Longitudinal Progression.

Cognitive impairment is an important symptom of Parkinson's disease (PD) and predicting future cognitive decline is crucial for clinical practice. Here, we aim to identify latent sub-groups of longitudinal trajectories of cognitive change in PD patients, and explore predictors of differences in cognitive change. Longitudinal cognitive performance data from 349 newly diagnosed PD patients and 145 healthy controls from the Parkinson Progression Marker Initiative were modeled using a multivariate latent class linear mixed model. Resultant latent classes were compared on a number of baseline demographics and clinical variables, as well as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers and striatal dopamine transporter (DAT) density markers of neuropathology. Trajectories of cognitive change in PD were best described by two latent classes. A large subgroup (90%), which showed a subtle impairment in cognitive performance compared to controls but remained stable over the course of the study, and a small subgroup (10%) which rapidly declined in all cognitive performance measures. Rapid decliners did not differ significantly from the larger group in terms of disease duration, severity, or motor symptoms at baseline. However, rapid decliners had lower CSF amyloidß42 levels, a higher prevalence of sleep disorder and pronounced loss of caudate DAT density at baseline. These data suggest the existence of a distinct minority sub-type of PD in which rapid cognitive change in PD can occur uncoupled from motor symptoms or disease severity, likely reflecting early pathological change that extends from motor areas of the striatum into associative compartments and cortex.