Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score.

AIMS: Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48-0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61-0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% -19% for bleeding. CONCLUSION: The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making.

Patients' Perspectives and Feasibility of Home Monitoring in Acute Care: The AcuteCare@Home Flash Mob Study.

Objective: To determine patients' perspectives on home monitoring at emergency department (ED) presentation and shortly after admission and compare these with their physicians' perspectives. Methods: Forty Dutch hospitals participated in this prospective flash mob study. Adult patients with acute medical conditions, treated by internal medicine specialties, presenting at the ED or admitted at the admission ward within the previous 24 h were included. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who were able and willing to undergo home monitoring. Secondary outcomes included identifying barriers to home monitoring, patient's prerequisites, and assessing the agreement between the perspectives of patients and treating physicians. Results: On February 2, 2023, in total 665 patients [median age 69 (interquartile range: 55-78) years; 95.5% community dwelling; 29.3% Modified Early Warning Score ≥3; 29.5% clinical frailty score ≥5] were included. In total, 19.6% of ED patients were admitted and 26% of ward patients preferred home monitoring as continuation of care. Guaranteed readmission (87.8%), ability to contact the hospital 24/7 (77.3%), and a family caregiver at home (55.7%) were the most often reported prerequisites. Barriers for home monitoring were feeling too severely ill (78.8%) and inability to receive the required treatment at home (64.4%). The agreement between patients and physicians was fair (Cohens kappa coefficient 0.26). Conclusions: A substantial proportion of acutely ill patients stated that they were willing and able to be monitored at home. Guaranteed readmission, availability of a treatment team (24/7), and a home support system are needed for successful implementation of home monitoring in acute care.

Design, validation and implementation of an automated e-alert for acute kidney injury: 6-month pilot study shows increased awareness.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is defined as a sudden episode of kidney failure but is known to be under-recognized by healthcare professionals. The Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcome (KDIGO) guidelines have formulated criteria to facilitate AKI diagnosis by comparing changes in plasma creatinine measurements (PCr). To improve AKI awareness, we implemented these criteria as an electronic alert (e-alert), in our electronic health record (EHR) system. METHODS: For every new PCr measurement measured in the University Medical Center Utrecht that triggered the e-alert, we provided the physician with actionable insights in the form of a memo, to improve or stabilize kidney function. Since e-alerts qualify for software as a medical device (SaMD), we designed, implemented and validated the e-alert according to the European Union In Vitro Diagnostic Regulation (IVDR). RESULTS: We evaluated the impact of the e-alert using pilot data six months before and after implementation. 2,053 e-alerts of 866 patients were triggered in the before implementation, and 1,970 e-alerts of 853 patients were triggered after implementation. We found improvements in AKI awareness as measured by (1) 2 days PCr follow up (56.6-65.8%, p-value: 0.003), and (2) stop of nephrotoxic medication within 7 days of the e-alert (59.2-63.2%, p-value: 0.002). CONCLUSION: Here, we describe the design and implementation of the e-alert in line with the IVDR, leveraging a multi-disciplinary team consisting of physicians, clinical chemists, data managers and data scientists, and share our firsts results that indicate an improved awareness among treating physicians.

The effect of physician training and patient education on the discussion of care decisions at the internal medicine outpatient clinic.

BACKGROUND: Care decision discussions are intended to align treatment with the patient's wishes, goals and values. To overcome the numerous barriers to such discussions, physicians as well as patients need tailored support. We evaluate the effect of a physicians' training and a conversation aid for patients about care decisions on patient and physician outcomes. METHODS: At the internal medicine outpatient clinic of the University Medical Centre Utrecht, a 1:1 randomized, parallel-group study (patient conversation aid) was combined with a pre-post intervention (physicians' training) design. Primary outcome was patient satisfaction, secondary outcomes were patient-doctor relationship, shared-decision-making, doctor preparedness and patient appreciation of the conversation aid. RESULTS: Between October 2018 and February 2020 11 physicians (36% residents, 73% female) and 185 patients (median age 58 years (interquartile range (IQR) 50-68), 60% male) participated. Only 28% of the patients reported a care decision discussion during the consultation. We found no effect of the interventions on patient satisfaction (effect sizes -0.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.56-0.27) for conversation aid; 0.04 (95% CI -0.40-0.48) for physician's training), nor on the patient-doctor relationship or shared-decision-making. However, physicians felt more prepared to discuss care decisions after training (median 3 (IQR 1-4) vs 1 (IQR 0-3), p = 0.015). Patients assessed the conversation aid informative and gave an overall mark of median 7 (IQR 7-8). CONCLUSIONS: First steps towards fruitful discussions about care decisions were made: patients considered the conversation aid informative and physicians felt better prepared to discuss care decisions after training. The low number of care decision conversations patients reported shows exactly how important it is to focus on interventions that facilitate these discussions, for both the patient and physician. Further work needs to be done to establish the best way to empower patients and physicians. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch trial register, trial 6998 (NTR 7188), registered 04/05/2018, https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/6998 .

A machine learning approach using endpoint adjudication committee labels for the identification of sepsis predictors at the emergency department.

Accurate sepsis diagnosis is paramount for treatment decisions, especially at the emergency department (ED). To improve diagnosis, clinical decision support (CDS) tools are being developed with machine learning (ML) algorithms, using a wide range of variable groups. ML models can find patterns in Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that are unseen by the human eye. A prerequisite for a good model is the use of high-quality labels. Sepsis gold-standard labels are hard to define due to a lack of reliable diagnostic tools for sepsis at the ED. Therefore, standard clinical tools, such as clinical prediction scores (e.g. modified early warning score and quick sequential organ failure assessment), and claims-based methods (e.g. ICD-10) are used to generate suboptimal labels. As a consequence, models trained with these "silver" labels result in ill-trained models. In this study, we trained ML models for sepsis diagnosis at the ED with labels of 375 ED visits assigned by an endpoint adjudication committee (EAC) that consisted of 18 independent experts. Our objective was to evaluate which routinely measured variables show diagnostic value for sepsis. We performed univariate testing and trained multiple ML models with 95 routinely measured variables of three variable groups; demographic and vital, laboratory and advanced haematological variables. Apart from known diagnostic variables, we identified added diagnostic value for less conventional variables such as eosinophil count and platelet distribution width. In this explorative study, we show that the use of an EAC together with ML can identify new targets for future sepsis diagnosis research.

An increase in CD62Ldim neutrophils precedes the development of pulmonary embolisms in COVID-19 patients.

OBJECTIVES: A high incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE) is reported in patients with critical coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Neutrophils may contribute to this through a process referred to as immunothrombosis. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of neutrophil subpopulations in blood preceding the development of COVID-19 associated PE. METHODS: We studied COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU of our tertiary hospital between 19-03-2020 and 17-05-2020. Point-of-care fully automated flow cytometry was performed prior to ICU admission, measuring the neutrophil activation/maturation markers CD10, CD11b, CD16 and CD62L. Neutrophil receptor expression was compared between patients who did or did not develop PE (as diagnosed on CT angiography) during or after their ICU stay. RESULTS: Among 25 eligible ICU patients, 22 subjects were included for analysis, of whom nine developed PE. The median (IQR) time between neutrophil phenotyping and PE occurrence was 9 (7-12) days. A significant increase in the immune-suppressive neutrophil phenotype CD16bright /CD62Ldim was observed on the day of ICU admission (P = 0.014) in patients developing PE compared to patients who did not. CONCLUSION: The increase in this neutrophil phenotype indicates that the increased number of CD16bright /CD62Ldim neutrophils might be used as prognostic marker to predict those patients that will develop PE in critical COVID-19 patients.

Ambiguous definitions for baseline serum creatinine affect acute kidney diagnosis at the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) incidence is increasing, however AKI is often missed at the emergency department (ED). AKI diagnosis depends on changes in kidney function by comparing a serum creatinine (SCr) measurement to a baseline value. However, it remains unclear to what extent different baseline values may affect AKI diagnosis at ED. METHODS: Routine care data from ED visits between 2012 and 2019 were extracted from the Utrecht Patient Oriented Database. We evaluated baseline definitions with criteria from the RIFLE, AKIN and KDIGO guidelines. We evaluated four baseline SCr definitions (lowest, most recent, mean, median), as well as five different time windows (up to 365 days prior to ED visit) to select a baseline and compared this to the first measured SCr at ED. As an outcome, we assessed AKI prevalence at ED. RESULTS: We included 47,373 ED visits with both SCr-ED and SCr-BL available. Of these, 46,100 visits had a SCr-BL from the - 365/- 7 days time window. Apart from the lowest value, AKI prevalence remained similar for the other definitions when varying the time window. The lowest value with the - 365/- 7 time window resulted in the highest prevalence (21.4%). Importantly, applying the guidelines with all criteria resulted in major differences in prevalence ranging from 5.9 to 24.0%. CONCLUSIONS: AKI prevalence varies with the use of different baseline definitions in ED patients. Clinicians, as well as researchers and developers of automatic diagnostic tools should take these considerations into account when aiming to diagnose AKI in clinical and research settings.

Understanding dysnatremia.

Dysnatremia-either hyponatremia or hypernatremia-is frequently encountered in the clinical practice and often poses a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge for physicians. Despite their frequent occurrence, disorders of the water and sodium balance in the human body have puzzled many physicians over the years and often remain elusive for those lacking experience in their interpretation and management. In this article, we derive a transparent governing equation that can be used by clinicians to describe how a change in relevant physiological parameters will affect the plasma sodium concentration. As opposed to many existing models, our model takes both input and output into account, and integrates osmolarity and tonicity. Our governing equation should be considered a means for clinicians to get a better qualitative understanding of the relationship between the plasma sodium concentration and the variables that influence it for a wide range of scenarios.

Differences in Documented and Actual Medication Administration Time in the Emergency Department: A Prospective, Observational, Time-Motion Study.

INTRODUCTION: Retrospective studies suggest that a rapid initiation of treatment results in a better prognosis for patients in the emergency department. There could be a difference between the actual medication administration time and the documented time in the electronic health record. In this study, the difference between the observed medication administration time and documentation time was investigated. Patient and nurse characteristics were also tested for associations with observed time differences. METHODS: In this prospective study, emergency nurses were followed by observers for a total of 3 months. Patient inclusion was divided over 2 time periods. The difference in the observed medication administration time and the corresponding electronic health record documentation time was measured. The association between patient/nurse characteristics and the difference in medication administration and documentation time was tested with a Spearman correlation or biserial correlation test. RESULTS: In 34 observed patients, the median difference in administration and documentation time was 6.0 minutes (interquartile range 2.0-16.0). In 9 (26.5%) patients, the actual time of medication administration differed more than 15 minutes with the electronic health record documentation time. High temperature, lower saturation, oxygen-dependency, and high Modified Early Warning Score were all correlated with an increasing difference between administration and documentation times. DISCUSSION: A difference between administration and documentation times of medication in the emergency department may be common, especially for more acute patients. This could bias, in part, previously reported time-to-treatment measurements from retrospective research designs, which should be kept in mind when outcomes of retrospective time-to-treatment studies are evaluated.

The Prognostic Value of Syncope on Mortality in Patients With Pulmonary Embolism: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Syncope is a presenting symptom in 10% to 20% of patients with pulmonary embolism. We perform a meta-analysis to clarify the prognostic value of syncope on short-term mortality in pulmonary embolism patients and its association with hemodynamic instability. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched up until January 7, 2020. Studies reporting inhospital or 30-day mortality of adults with pulmonary embolism with and without syncope were included. Quality of included studies was evaluated with the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Meta-analysis was conducted to derive pooled odds ratios (ORs) and risk differences for the relation of syncope with mortality and hemodynamic instability. To study the influence of hemodynamic instability on the association between syncope and mortality, meta-regression was performed. RESULTS: Search and selection resulted in 26 studies, of which 20 were pooled, involving 9,419 of 335,120 patients (3%) with syncope. Syncope was associated with higher mortality (OR 1.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14 to 2.90; I2 88%; risk difference 4% [95% CI 1% to 8%]) and higher prevalence of hemodynamic instability (OR 4.36; 95% CI 2.27 to 8.37; I2 93%; risk difference 12% [95% CI 7% to 18%]). OR for mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism with syncope versus without it was higher in the presence of a larger difference in hemodynamic instability between groups (coefficient 0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09). CONCLUSION: The association between syncope and short-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism is explained by a difference in hemodynamic instability. This emphasizes the importance of risk stratification by hemodynamic status in pulmonary embolism patients with and without syncope.

The prognostic value of red blood cell distribution width in patients with suspected infection in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a potential life threatening dysregulated immune response to an infection, which can result in multi-organ failure and death. Unfortunately, good prognostic markers are lacking in patients with suspected infection to identify those at risk. Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is a common and inexpensive hematologic laboratory measurement associated with adverse prognosis in multiple diseases. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of RDW for mortality and early clinical deterioration in patients with a suspected infection in the emergency department. METHODS: In this single center prospective observational cohort study, consecutive patients with suspected infection presenting for internal medicine in the emergency department between September 2016 and March 2018 were included. For prognostic validation of bedside sepsis scores and RDW receiver operating characteristics were generated. Association between RDW and mortality and ICU admission was analyzed univariate and in a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: 1046 patients were included. In multivariate analyses, RDW was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (OR 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04-1.28) and early clinical deterioration (OR 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00-1.18). For 30-day mortality RDW had an AUROC of 0.66 (95% CI 0.59-0.72). Optimal cut-off value for RDW 2 was 12.95%. For early clinical deterioration RDW had an AUROC of 0.59 (95% CI 0.54-0.63) with an optimal cut-off value of 14.48%. CONCLUSIONS: RDW was found to be a significant independent prognostic factor of 30-day mortality and early clinical deterioration in patients with suspected infection.. Therefore it can be a used as an extra marker besides bedside sepsis scores in identifying patients at risk for worse outcome in patients with suspected infection.

Simplified diagnostic management of suspected pulmonary embolism (the YEARS study): a prospective, multicentre, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Validated diagnostic algorithms in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism are often not used correctly or only benefit subgroups of patients, leading to overuse of computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA). The YEARS clinical decision rule that incorporates differential D-dimer cutoff values at presentation, has been developed to be fast, to be compatible with clinical practice, and to reduce the number of CTPA investigations in all age groups. We aimed to prospectively evaluate this novel and simplified diagnostic algorithm for suspected acute pulmonary embolism. METHODS: We did a prospective, multicentre, cohort study in 12 hospitals in the Netherlands, including consecutive patients with suspected pulmonary embolism between Oct 5, 2013, to July 9, 2015. Patients were managed by simultaneous assessment of the YEARS clinical decision rule, consisting of three items (clinical signs of deep vein thrombosis, haemoptysis, and whether pulmonary embolism is the most likely diagnosis), and D-dimer concentrations. In patients without YEARS items and D-dimer less than 1000 ng/mL, or in patients with one or more YEARS items and D-dimer less than 500 ng/mL, pulmonary embolism was considered excluded. All other patients had CTPA. The primary outcome was the number of independently adjudicated events of venous thromboembolism during 3 months of follow-up after pulmonary embolism was excluded, and the secondary outcome was the number of required CTPA compared with the Wells' diagnostic algorithm. For the primary outcome regarding the safety of the diagnostic strategy, we used a per-protocol approach. For the secondary outcome regarding the efficiency of the diagnostic strategy, we used an intention-to-diagnose approach. This trial is registered with the Netherlands Trial Registry, number NTR4193. FINDINGS: 3616 consecutive patients with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism were screened, of whom 151 (4%) were excluded. The remaining 3465 patients were assessed of whom 456 (13%) were diagnosed with pulmonary embolism at baseline. Of the 2946 patients (85%) in whom pulmonary embolism was ruled out at baseline and remained untreated, 18 patients were diagnosed with symptomatic venous thromboembolism during 3-month follow-up (0·61%, 95% CI 0·36-0·96) of whom six had fatal pulmonary embolism (0·20%, 0·07-0·44). CTPA was not indicated in 1651 (48%) patients with the YEARS algorithm compared with 1174 (34%) patients, if Wells' rule and fixed D-dimer threshold of less than 500 ng/mL would have been applied, a difference of 14% (95% CI 12-16). INTERPRETATION: In our study pulmonary embolism was safely excluded by the YEARS diagnostic algorithm in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism. The main advantage of the YEARS algorithm in our patients is the absolute 14% decrease of CTPA examinations in all ages and across several relevant subgroups. FUNDING: This study was supported by unrestricted grants from the participating hospitals.

Development and validation of an admission prediction tool for emergency departments in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: Early prediction of admission has the potential to reduce length of stay in the ED. The aim of this study is to create a computerised tool to predict admission probability. METHODS: The prediction rule was derived from data on all patients who visited the ED of the Rijnstate Hospital over two random weeks. Performing a multivariate logistic regression analysis factors associated with hospitalisation were explored. Using these data, a model was developed to predict admission probability. Prospective validation was performed at Rijnstate Hospital and in two regional hospitals with different baseline admission rates. The model was converted into a computerised tool that reported the admission probability for any patient at the time of triage. RESULTS: Data from 1261 visits were included in the derivation of the rule. Four contributing factors for admission that could be determined at triage were identified: age, triage category, arrival mode and main symptom. Prospective validation showed that this model reliably predicts hospital admission in two community hospitals (area under the curve (AUC) 0.87, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.89) and in an academic hospital (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.80). In the community hospitals, using a cut-off of 80% for admission probability resulted in the highest number of true positives (actual admissions) with the greatest specificity (positive predictive value (PPV): 89.6, 95% CI 84.5 to 93.6; negative predictive value (NPV): 70.3, 95% CI 67.6 to 72.9). For the academic hospital, with a higher admission rate, a 90% probability was a better cut-off (PPV: 83.0, 95% CI 73.8 to 90.0; NPV: 59.3, 95% CI 54.2 to 64.2). CONCLUSION: Admission probability for ED patients can be calculated using a prediction tool. Further research must show whether using this tool can improve patient flow in the ED.

Safety and feasibility of a diagnostic algorithm combining clinical probability, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography for suspected upper extremity deep venous thrombosis: a prospective management study.

BACKGROUND: Although well-established for suspected lower limb deep venous thrombosis, an algorithm combining a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography has not been evaluated for suspected upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (UEDVT). OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety and feasibility of a new diagnostic algorithm in patients with clinically suspected UEDVT. DESIGN: Diagnostic management study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01324037) SETTING: 16 hospitals in Europe and the United States. PATIENTS: 406 inpatients and outpatients with suspected UEDVT. MEASUREMENTS: The algorithm consisted of the sequential application of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography. Patients were first categorized as likely or unlikely to have UEDVT; in those with an unlikely score and normal d-dimer levels, UEDVT was excluded. All other patients had (repeated) compression ultrasonography. The primary outcome was the 3-month incidence of symptomatic UEDVT and pulmonary embolism in patients with a normal diagnostic work-up. RESULTS: The algorithm was feasible and completed in 390 of the 406 patients (96%). In 87 patients (21%), an unlikely score combined with normal d-dimer levels excluded UEDVT. Superficial venous thrombosis and UEDVT were diagnosed in 54 (13%) and 103 (25%) patients, respectively. All 249 patients with a normal diagnostic work-up, including those with protocol violations (n = 16), were followed for 3 months. One patient developed UEDVT during follow-up, for an overall failure rate of 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0% to 2.2%). LIMITATIONS: This study was not powered to show the safety of the substrategies. d-Dimer testing was done locally. CONCLUSION: The combination of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography can safely and effectively exclude UEDVT. If confirmed by other studies, this algorithm has potential as a standard approach to suspected UEDVT. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Nurse practitioner care improves renal outcome in patients with CKD.

Treatment goals for patients with CKD are often unrealized for many reasons, but support by nurse practitioners may improve risk factor levels in these patients. Here, we analyzed renal endpoints of the Multifactorial Approach and Superior Treatment Efficacy in Renal Patients with the Aid of Nurse Practitioners (MASTERPLAN) study after extended follow-up to determine whether strict implementation of current CKD guidelines through the aid of nurse practitioners improves renal outcome. In total, 788 patients with moderate to severe CKD were randomized to receive nurse practitioner support added to physician care (intervention group) or physician care alone (control group). Median follow-up was 5.7 years. Renal outcome was a secondary endpoint of the MASTERPLAN study. We used a composite renal endpoint of death, ESRD, and 50% increase in serum creatinine. Event rates were compared with adjustment for baseline serum creatinine concentration and changes in estimated GFR were determined. During the randomized phase, there were small but significant differences between the groups in BP, proteinuria, LDL cholesterol, and use of aspirin, statins, active vitamin D, and antihypertensive medications, in favor of the intervention group. The intervention reduced the incidence of the composite renal endpoint by 20% (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.66 to 0.98; P=0.03). In the intervention group, the decrease in estimated GFR was 0.45 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year less than in the control group (P=0.01). In conclusion, additional support by nurse practitioners attenuated the decline of kidney function and improved renal outcome in patients with CKD.

Point-of-care neutrophil and monocyte surface markers differentiate bacterial from viral infections at the emergency department within 30†min.

Rapid discrimination between viral and bacterial infections in a point-of-care setting will improve clinical outcome. Expression of CD64 on neutrophils (neuCD64) increases during bacterial infections, whereas expression of CD169 on classical monocytes (cmCD169) increases during viral infections. The diagnostic value of automated point-of-care neuCD64 and cmCD169 analysis was assessed for detecting bacterial and viral infections at the emergency department. Additionally, their value as input for machine learning models was studied. A prospective observational cohort study in patients suspected of infection was performed at an emergency department. A fully automated point-of-care flow cytometer measured neuCD64, cmCD169, and additional leukocyte surface markers. Flow cytometry data were gated using the FlowSOM algorithm. Bacterial and viral infections were assessed in standardized clinical care. The sole and combined diagnostic value of the markers was investigated. Clustering based on unsupervised machine learning identified unique patient clusters. Eighty-six patients were included. Thirty-five had a bacterial infection, 30 had a viral infection, and 21 had no infection. neuCD64 was increased in bacterial infections (P < 0.001), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.73. cmCD169 was higher in virally infected patients (P < 0.001; AUROC 0.79). Multivariate analyses incorporating additional markers increased the AUROC for bacterial and viral infections to 0.86 and 0.93, respectively. The additional clustering identified 4 distinctive patient clusters based on infection type and outcome. Automated neuCD64 and cmCD169 determination can discriminate between bacterial and viral infections. These markers can be determined within 30 min, allowing fast infection diagnostics in the acute clinical setting.

Designing a Virtual Hospital-at-Home Intervention for Patients with Infectious Diseases: A Data-Driven Approach.

BACKGROUND: Virtual hospital-at-home care might be an alternative to standard hospital care for patients with infectious diseases. In this study, we explore the potential for virtual hospital-at-home care and a potential design for this population. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of internal medicine patients suspected of infectious diseases, admitted between 1 January and 31 December 2019. We collected information on delivered care during emergency department visits, the first 24 h, between 24 and 72 h, and after 72 h of admission. Care components that could be delivered at home were combined into care packages, and the potential number of eligible patients per package was described. The most feasible package was described in detail. RESULTS: 763 patients were included, mostly referred for general internal medicine (35%), and the most common diagnosis was lower respiratory tract infection (27%). The most frequently administered care components were laboratory tests, non-oral medication, and intercollegiate consultation. With a combination of telemonitoring, video consultation, non-oral medication administration, laboratory tests, oxygen therapy, and radiological diagnostics, 48% of patients were eligible for hospital-at-home care, with 35% already eligible directly after emergency department visits. CONCLUSION: While the potential for virtual hospital-at-home care is high, it depends greatly on which care can be arranged.

Home-based management of hypoxaemic COVID-19 patients: design of the Therapy@Home pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, hospital capacity was strained. Home-based care could relieve the hospital care system and improve patient well-being if safely organised.We designed an intervention embedded in a regional collaborative healthcare network for the home-based management of acutely ill COVID-19 patients requiring oxygen treatment. Here, we describe the design and pilot protocol for the evaluation of the feasibility of this complex intervention. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Following a participatory action research approach, the intervention was designed in four consecutive steps: (1) literature review and establishment of an expert panel; (2) concept design of essential intervention building blocks (acute medical care, acute nursing care, remote monitoring, equipment and technology, organisation and logistics); (3) safety assessments (prospective risk analysis and a simulation patient evaluation) and (4) description of the design of the pilot (feasibility) study aimed at including approximately 15-30 patients, sufficient for fine-tuning for a large-scale randomised intervention. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: All patients will provide written, informed consent. The study was approved by the Medical Ethics Review Committee of the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands (protocol NL77421.041.21). The preparatory steps (1-4) needed to perform the pilot are executed and described in this paper. The findings of the pilot will be published in academic journals. If we consider the complex intervention feasible, we aim to continue with a large-scale randomised controlled study evaluating the clinical effectiveness, safety and implementation of the complex intervention.

Home monitoring by pulse oximetry of primary care patients with COVID-19: a pilot randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pulse oximetry as a home or remote monitoring tool accelerated during the pandemic for patients with COVID-19, but evidence on its use is lacking. AIM: To assess the feasibility of home monitoring by pulse oximetry of patients aged ≥40 years with cardiovascular comorbidity and moderate-to-severe COVID-19. DESIGN AND SETTING: A primary care-based, open, pilot randomised controlled trial, with nested process evaluation, was undertaken in the Netherlands. METHOD: From November 2020 to June 2021, eligible patients presenting to one of 14 participating Dutch general practices were randomly allocated to regular measurement of peripheral oxygen saturation (at least three SpO2 measurements per day for 14 days) with a validated pulse oximeter or usual care. RESULTS: All 41 participants (21 intervention, 20 usual care) completed the 45-day follow-up period. Overall, the intervention group performed 97.6% of protocolised measurements; the median daily measurement per participant was 2.7 (interquartile range 1-4). Hypoxemia (SpO2 <94%) was reported in 10 participants (in 52 measurements); of those, six consulted the GP as instructed. Participants reported a high feeling of safety (0-100 visual analogue scale): 71.8 for the intervention group versus 59.8 for the control (P = 0.09). Primary care consultations were similar across groups: 50 for the intervention versus 51 for the control. Eleven visits by 10 participants were made to the emergency department (eight from the intervention group versus three from usual care), of which six participants were hospitalised (five intervention versus one usual care). No participants were admitted to the intensive care unit or died during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Home monitoring of patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 by pulse oximetry appeared feasible; adherence was high, patients reported a high feeling of safety, while the number of primary care consultations remained similar to usual care.

Interpretation of continuously measured vital signs data of COVID-19 patients by nurses and physicians at the general ward: A mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Continuous monitoring of vital signs is introduced at general hospital wards to detect patient deterioration. Interpretation and response currently rely on experience and expert opinion. This study aims to determine whether consensus exist among hospital professionals regarding the interpretation of vital signs of COVID-19 patients. In addition, we assessed the ability to recognise respiratory insufficiency and evaluated the interpretation process. METHODS: We performed a mixed methods study including 24 hospital professionals (6 nurses, 6 junior physicians, 6 internal medicine specialists, 6 ICU nurses). Each participant was presented with 20 cases of COVID-19 patients, including 4 or 8 hours of continuously measured vital signs data. Participants estimated the patient's situation ('improving', 'stable', or 'deteriorating') and the possibility of developing respiratory insufficiency. Subsequently, a semi-structured interview was held focussing on the interpretation process. Consensus was assessed using Krippendorff's alpha. For the estimation of respiratory insufficiency, we calculated the mean positive/negative predictive value. Interviews were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: We found no consensus regarding the patient's situation (α 0.41, 95%CI 0.29-0.52). The mean positive predictive value for respiratory insufficiency was high (0.91, 95%CI 0.86-0.97), but the negative predictive value was 0.66 (95%CI 0.44-0.88). In the interviews, two themes regarding the interpretation process emerged. "Interpretation of deviations" included the strategies participants use to determine stability, focused on finding deviations in data. "Inability to see the patient" entailed the need of hospital professionals to perform a patient evaluation when estimating a patient's situation. CONCLUSION: The interpretation of continuously measured vital signs by hospital professionals, and recognition of respiratory insufficiency using these data, is variable, which might be the result of different interpretation strategies, uncertainty regarding deviations, and not being able to see the patient. Protocols and training could help to uniform interpretation, but decision support systems might be necessary to find signs of deterioration that might otherwise go unnoticed.