Effect of wildfire on the prevalence of opioid misuse through anxiety among young adults in the United States: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to climate change events like wildfires can lead to health and mental health problems. While conceptual frameworks have been hypothesized describing the potential relationship between disaster exposure and substance use, the association remains under-researched and unquantified. METHODS: We constructed a quantitative portrayal of one proposed conceptual framework that focuses on the intermediary role of anxiety. We used the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the impact of wildfire exposure on opioid misuse outcomes through increased anxiety. We searched for and extracted prior empirical evidence on the associations between wildfire anxiety and anxiety-opioid misuse. Three scenarios were devised: in S1 the impact of wildfire on opioid misuse was limited to increasing anxiety incidence; in S2 we also considered the additive role of altered anxiety phenotype; and in S3 we further considered the role of increased opioid-related consequences of pre-existing anxiety due to wildfire exposure. RESULTS: Models show that the prevalence of opioid misuse post-wildfire may rise to 6.0%-7.2% from a baseline of 5.3%. In S1, the opioid misuse prevalence ratio was 1.12 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.00 - 1.27). The two exploratory scenarios, with less stringent assumptions, yielded prevalence ratios of 1.23 (95% UI: 1.00 - 1.51) and 1.34 (95% UI: 1.11 - 1.63). CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling study suggests that exposure to wildfires may elevate opioid misuse through increasing anxiety incidence and severity. This can lead to substantial health burdens, possibly beyond the duration of the wildfire event, which may offset recent gains in opioid misuse prevention.

Effect of wildfire on the prevalence of opioid misuse through anxiety among young adults in the United States: A modeling study.

Background: Exposure to climate change events like wildfires can lead to health and mental health problems. While conceptual frameworks have been hypothesized describing the potential relationship between disaster exposure and substance use, the association remains under-researched and unquantified. Methods: We constructed a quantitative portrayal of one proposed conceptual framework that focuses on the intermediary role of anxiety. We used the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the impact of wildfire exposure on opioid misuse outcomes through increased anxiety. We searched for and extracted prior empirical evidence on the associations between wildfire anxiety and anxiety-opioid misuse. A base case scenario (S1) was devised in which the impact of wildfire on opioid misuse was limited to increasing anxiety incidence. Two exploratory scenarios investigated the additive roles of altered anxiety phenotype (S2) and increased severity of pre-existing anxiety (S3) due to wildfire exposure. Results: Models show that the prevalence of opioid misuse post-wildfire may rise to 6.0%-7.2%. In S1 (base case), the opioid misuse prevalence ratio was 1.12 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.00 - 1.27). The two exploratory scenarios, with less stringent assumptions, yielded prevalence ratios of 1.23 (95% UI: 1.00 - 1.51) and 1.34 (95% UI: 1.11 - 1.63). Conclusions: Our modeling study suggests that exposure to wildfires may elevate opioid misuse through increasing anxiety incidence and severity. This may lead to substantial health burdens that may persist long after the initial wildfire event, which may offset recent gains in opioid misuse prevention.

Cost-effectiveness of a police education program on HIV and overdose among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico.

Background: Incarceration is associated with drug-related harms among people who inject drugs (PWID). We trained >1800 police officers in Tijuana, Mexico on occupational safety and HIV/HCV, harm reduction, and decriminalization reforms (Proyecto Escudo). We evaluated its effect on incarceration, population impact and cost-effectiveness on HIV and fatal overdose among PWID. Methods: We assessed self-reported recent incarceration in a longitudinal cohort of PWID before and after Escudo. Segmented regression was used to compare linear trends in log risk of incarceration among PWID pre-Escudo (2012-2015) and post-Escudo (2016-2018). We estimated population impact using a dynamic model of HIV transmission and fatal overdose among PWID, with incarceration associated with syringe sharing and fatal overdose. The model was calibrated to HIV and incarceration patterns in Tijuana. We compared a scenario with Escudo (observed incarceration declines for 2 years post-Escudo among PWID from the segmented regression) compared to a counterfactual of no Escudo (continuation of stable pre-Escudo trends), assessing cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective. Using a 2-year intervention effect and 50-year time horizon, we determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, in 2022 USD per disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] averted). Findings: Compared to stable incarceration pre-Escudo, for every three-month interval in the post-Escudo period, recent incarceration among PWID declined by 21% (adjusted relative risk = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68-0.91). Based on these declines, we estimated 1.7% [95% interval: 0.7%-3.5%] of new HIV cases and 12.2% [4.5%-26.6%] of fatal overdoses among PWID were averted in the 2 years post-Escudo, compared to a counterfactual without Escudo. Escudo was cost-effective (ICER USD 3746/DALY averted compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of $4842-$13,557). Interpretation: Escudo is a cost-effective structural intervention that aligned policing practices and human-rights-based public health practices, which could serve as a model for other settings where policing constitutes structural HIV and overdose risk among PWID. Funding: National Institute on Drug Abuse, UC MEXUS CONACyT, and the San Diego Center for AIDS Research (SD CFAR).

Cost-effectiveness analysis design for interventions to prevent children's oral disease.

Introduction: In 2015, the National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (NIDCR) launched the Multidisciplinary Collaborative Research Consortium to Reduce Oral Health Disparities in Children, supporting four randomized trials testing strategies to improve preventive care. A Coordinating Center provides scientific expertise, data acquisition and quality assurance services, safety monitoring, and final analysis-ready datasets. This paper describes the trials' economic analysis strategies, placing these strategies within the broader context of contemporary economic analysis methods. Methods: The Coordinating Center established a Cost Collaborative Working Group to share information from the four trials about the components of their economic analyses. Study teams indicated data sources for their economic analysis using a set of structured tables. The Group meets regularly to share progress, discuss challenges, and coordinate analytic approaches. Results: All four trials will calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios; two will also conduct cost-utility analyses using proxy diseases to estimate health state utilities. Each trial will consider at least two perspectives. Key process measures include dental services provided to child participants. The non-preference-weighted Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale (ECOHIS) will measure oral health-related quality of life. All trials are measuring training, implementation, personnel and supervision, service, supplies, and equipment costs. Conclusions: Consistent with best practices, all four trials have integrated economic analysis during their planning stages. This effort is critical since poor quality or absence of essential data can limit retrospective analysis. Integrating economic analysis into oral health preventive intervention research can provide guidance to clinicians and practices, payers, and policymakers.

An agricultural livelihood intervention is associated with reduced HIV stigma among people with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: HIV stigma undermines antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and viral suppression. Livelihood interventions may target drivers of negative attitudes towards people with HIV (PWH) by improving their health and strengthening their economic contributions. We examined the effects of a multisectoral agricultural livelihood intervention on HIV stigma among PWH in western Kenya. DESIGN: Sixteen health facilities were randomly allocated (1 : 1) to intervention or control arms in Shamba Maisha , a cluster randomized controlled trial that aimed to improve HIV-related health through behavioral, mental health, and nutritional pathways. METHODS: The intervention included a farming loan and agricultural and financial training. Participants had access to farmland and surface water and were at least 18 years old, on ART for more than 6 months, and moderately-to-severely food insecure. We measured internalized, anticipated, and enacted HIV stigma semiannually over 2 years using validated scales. In blinded intent-to-treat analyses, we compared changes in scores over 24 months by study arm, using longitudinal multilevel difference-in-differences linear regression models that accounted for clustering. RESULTS: Of 720 enrolled participants (354 intervention), 55% were women, and the median age was 40 years [interquartile range 34-47 years]. Two-year retention was 94%. Compared with the control arm, the intervention resulted in significant decreases ( P  < 0.001) of 0.42 points [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.52 to -0.31) in internalized stigma, 0.43 points (95% CI -0.51 to -0.34) in anticipated stigma, and 0.13 points (95% CI -0.16 to -0.09) in enacted stigma over 24 months. CONCLUSION: The agricultural livelihood intervention reduced HIV stigma among PWH. Poverty-reduction approaches may be a novel strategy for reducing HIV stigma.

Defining a screening tool for post-traumatic stress disorder in East Africa: a penalized regression approach.

Background: Scalable PTSD screening strategies must be brief, accurate and capable of administration by a non-specialized workforce. Methods: We used PTSD as determined by the structured clinical interview as our gold standard and considered predictors sets of (a) Posttraumatic Stress Checklist-5 (PCL-5), (b) Primary Care PTSD Screen for the DSM-5 (PC-PTSD) and, (c) PCL-5 and PC-PTSD questions to identify the optimal items for PTSD screening for public sector settings in Kenya. A logistic regression model using LASSO was fit by minimizing the average squared error in the validation data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) measured discrimination performance. Results: Penalized regression analysis suggested a screening tool that sums the Likert scale values of two PCL-5 questions-intrusive thoughts of the stressful experience (#1) and insomnia (#21). This had an AUROC of 0.85 (using hold-out test data) for predicting PTSD as evaluated by the MINI, which outperformed the PC-PTSD. The AUROC was similar in subgroups defined by age, sex, and number of categories of trauma experienced (all AUROCs>0.83) except those with no trauma history- AUROC was 0.78. Conclusion: In some East African settings, a 2-item PTSD screening tool may outperform longer screeners and is easily scaled by a non-specialist workforce.

Group psychedelic therapy: empirical estimates of cost-savings and improved access.

Objective: To compare group and individual psychedelic-assisted therapy in terms of clinician time, costs and patient access. Methods: Using 2023 data from two group therapy trial sites, one using 3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) to treat posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and one using psilocybin to treat major depressive disorder (MDD), we compared overall variable costs, clinician costs and clinician time required by therapy protocols utilizing groups versus individual patient therapy. Using published literature, we estimated the prevalence of adults with PTSD and MDD eligible for treatment with psychedelic therapy and projected the savings in time and cost required to treat these prevalent cases. Results: Group therapy saved 50.9% of clinician costs for MDMA-PTSD and 34.7% for psilocybin-MDD, or $3,467 and $981 per patient, respectively. To treat all eligible PTSD and MDD patients in the U.S. in 10 years with group therapy, 6,711 fewer full-time equivalent (FTE) clinicians for MDMA-PTSD and 1,159 fewer for FTE clinicians for psilocybin-MDD would be needed, saving up to $10.3 billion and $2.0 billion respectively, discounted at 3% annually. Conclusion: Adopting group therapy protocols where feasible would significantly reduce the cost of psychedelic-assisted therapies. By enhancing the number of patients served per clinician, group therapy could also ameliorate the anticipated shortage of appropriately trained clinicians, thereby accelerating access to these promising new therapies.