Validation of the ILD-GAP Model and a Local Nomogram in a Singaporean Cohort.

BACKGROUND: The ILD-GAP model was developed and validated in a Western cohort to predict 1-, 2- and 3-year mortality in chronic interstitial lung disease (ILD). OBJECTIVES: We aimed to validate the ILD-GAP model and identify predictors of mortality to derive a nomogram to predict mortality in our local Asian population. METHODS: Characteristics of patients on follow-up in a tertiary ILD referral center were retrospectively reviewed. RESULTS: There were 181 patients and 48 mortalities. 29.8% had idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, 2.8% unclassifiable ILD, 33.1% connective tissue disease-associated interstitial lung disease (CTD-ILD), 28.7% idiopathic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia and 5.5% chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis. Univariable analysis showed that a higher ILD-GAP index, unclassified ILD, males, older age, higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure, lower forced vital capacity percent predicted and carbon monoxide diffusion capacity (DLCO) correlated with increased mortality, and CTD had lower mortality. Multivariable analysis utilizing Akaike's information criterion stopping rule showed males and a lower DLCO predicted increased mortality, while CTD predicted lower mortality. These were used to generate a nomogram which predicted overall mortality better (C index 0.817, adequacy index 99.5%) than ILD-GAP (C index 0.777, adequacy index 60.7%) and provided superior estimates based on likelihood ratio testing. Calibration plots showed the nomogram predicted 1-year mortality better, whilst the ILD-GAP model predicted 2- and 3-year mortality closer to actual mortality rates but underpredicted 1-year mortality. CONCLUSION: The nomogram performed better than ILD-GAP in predicting overall mortality and 1-year mortality. Both demonstrated good performance in predicting mortality risk.

2015 Epidemic of Severe Streptococcus agalactiae Sequence Type 283 Infections in Singapore Associated With the Consumption of Raw Freshwater Fish: A Detailed Analysis of Clinical, Epidemiological, and Bacterial Sequencing Data.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus agalactiae (group B Streptococcus [GBS]) has not been described as a foodborne pathogen. However, in 2015, a large outbreak of severe invasive sequence type (ST) 283 GBS infections in adults epidemiologically linked to the consumption of raw freshwater fish occurred in Singapore. We attempted to determine the scale of the outbreak, define the clinical spectrum of disease, and link the outbreak to contaminated fish. METHODS: Time-series analysis was performed on microbiology laboratory data. Food handlers and fishmongers were screened for enteric carriage of GBS. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess differences in demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with invasive ST283 and non-ST283 infections. Whole-genome sequencing was performed on human and fish ST283 isolates from Singapore, Thailand, and Hong Kong. RESULTS: The outbreak was estimated to have started in late January 2015. Within the study cohort of 408 patients, ST283 accounted for 35.8% of cases. Patients with ST283 infection were younger and had fewer comorbidities but were more likely to develop meningoencephalitis, septic arthritis, and spinal infection. Of 82 food handlers and fishmongers screened, none carried ST283. Culture of 43 fish samples yielded 13 ST283-positive samples. Phylogenomic analysis of 161 ST283 isolates from humans and fish revealed they formed a tight clade distinguished by 93 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. CONCLUSIONS: ST283 is a zoonotic GBS clone associated with farmed freshwater fish, capable of causing severe disease in humans. It caused a large foodborne outbreak in Singapore and poses both a regional and potentially more widespread threat.

First ever characterisation of the effects of short telomeres in a Singapore interstitial lung disease cohort.

BACKGROUND: Differences in disease behaviour and genotypes are described in Asian and Western interstitial lung disease (ILD) cohorts. Short leukocyte telomere length (LTL) correlates with poor outcomes in Western ILD cohorts but its significance in Asian populations is unknown. We aim to characterise the burden and clinical implications of short LTL in Singaporean ILD patients. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with ILD at Singapore General Hospital were prospectively recruited and compared against 36 healthy controls. The primary outcome was transplant-free survival. Genomic DNA from peripheral blood was extracted and LTL measured using quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay (qPCR). RESULTS: Amongst 165 patients, 37% had short LTL. There was a higher proportion of combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) patients with short LTL (n = 21, 34.4% vs n = 16, 15.4%; p < 0.001). Short LTL patients had reduced survival at 12-, 24- and 36-months and median survival of 24 months (p < 0.001) which remained significant following adjustment for smoking, GAP Stage and radiological UIP pattern (Hazard Ratio (HR), 2.74; 95%CI:1.46, 5.11; p = 0.002). They had increased respiratory-related mortality and acute exacerbation incidences. Despite similar baseline lung function, short LTL patients had a faster decline in absolute forced vital capacity (FVC) of -105.3 (95% CI: 151.4, -59.1) mL/year compared to -58.2 (95% CI: 82.9, -33.6) mL/year (p < 0.001) in normal LTL patients. CONCLUSION: Short LTL correlated with increased mortality and faster lung function decline in our Singaporean ILD cohort with a magnitude similar to that in Western ILD cohorts. Further research is needed to integrate LTL assessment into clinical practice.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions: a look back at the PANTHER-IPF trial.

The PANTHER-IPF trial was a turning point in treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (#IPF) highlighting the importance of randomised controlled trials in determining treatment strategies, even for rare diseases and/or potentially fatal acute events https://bit.ly/3Oi0KwD.

Cluster phenotypes in a non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis fibrotic interstitial lung diseases cohort in Singapore.

Background: Non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (F-ILDs) may demonstrate a progressive disease trajectory similar to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We aimed to identify novel F-ILD phenotypes in a multi-ethnic South-East Asian population. Methods: F-ILD subjects (n=201) were analysed using unsupervised hierarchical cluster analysis and their outcomes compared against IPF (n=86). Results: Four clusters were identified. Cluster 1 (n=53, 26.4%) comprised older Chinese males with high body mass index (BMI) and comorbidity burden, higher baseline forced vital capacity (FVC) percentage predicted and lower diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) percentage predicted. They had similar mortality to IPF. Cluster 2 (n=67, 33.3%) had younger female non-smokers with low comorbidity burden, groundglass changes on high-resolution chest computed tomography (HRCT) and a positive anti-nuclear antibody (ANA) titre ≥1:160. They had lower baseline FVC and higher DLCO, low mortality and slower lung function decline. Cluster 3 (n=42, 20.9%) consisted male smokers with low comorbidity burden, emphysema on HRCT and high baseline lung function. They had low mortality and slow lung function decline. Cluster 4 (n=39, 19.4%) was the highest risk and comprised of mainly Indians with high BMI. They had the highest proportion of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and previous pulmonary tuberculosis. Subjects had the lowest baseline lung function, highest mortality, and fastest lung function decline. Survival differences across clusters remained significant following adjustment for treatment. Conclusions: We identified four distinct F-ILD clinical phenotypes with varying disease trajectories. This demonstrates heterogeneity in F-ILD and the need for complementary approaches for classification and prognostication beyond ATS/ERS guideline diagnosis.

Country-wide genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex in Singapore, 2011-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) and factors associated with its transmission in Singapore. METHODS: Spoligotyping, 24-loci mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units - variable number of tandem repeats (MIRU-VNTR) typing and demographic data from the national TB notification registry of MTBC culture-positive cases notified from January 2011 to December 2017 were analysed. RESULTS: Of the 12,046 culture-positive cases notified, complete spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR typing results were available for 8690 (72.1%) belonging to 4950 (57.0%) local-born and 3740 (43.0%) foreign-born persons. From these, 4810 (55.3%) were identified in 883 clusters. The proportion of recent transmission was 45.2%. The East-Asian Lineage 2 accounted for 4045 (47.1%) of isolates, and disproportionately accounted for large clusters. Clustered cases were more likely to be older than 50 years, male, Malay, local-born, Singapore citizens or Permanent Residents, of lower socioeconomic status, imprisoned; to harbour East-Asian Lineage 2 strain; to have cavitary pulmonary TB, positive sputum smear or be recalcitrant treatment defaulters. They were less likely to have multidrug-resistant, or isoniazid or rifampicin mono-resistant TB. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated the diversity of MTBC strains and, notwithstanding the likely over-estimation of clustering using these genotyping methods, elucidated factors associated with TB transmission in Singapore.

Telomere biology disorders.

Telomere biology disorders (TBD) are a heterogeneous group of diseases arising from germline mutations affecting genes involved in telomere maintenance. Telomeres are DNA-protein structures at chromosome ends that maintain chromosome stability; their length affects cell replicative potential and senescence. A constellation of bone marrow failure, pulmonary fibrosis, liver cirrhosis and premature greying is suggestive, however incomplete penetrance results in highly variable manifestations, with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis as the most common presentation. Currently, the true extent of TBD burden is unknown as there is no established diagnostic criteria and the disorder often is unrecognised and underdiagnosed. There is no gold standard for measuring telomere length and not all TBD-related mutations have been identified. There is no specific cure and the only treatment is organ transplantation, which has poor outcomes. This review summarises the current literature and discusses gaps in understanding and areas of need in managing TBD.