A NEW HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT SYSTEM FOR JAPAN? SIMULATING THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE PRICE OF SIMEPREVIR.

OBJECTIVES: Japanese authorities have announced a plan to introduce a health technology assessment (HTA) system in 2016. This study assessed the potential impact of such a policy on the price of the antivirologic drug simeprevir. METHODS: Taking the antivirologic drug simeprevir as an example, we compared the current Japanese price with hypothetical prices that might result if a U.K. (cost-utility) or German (efficiency frontier) style HTA assessment was in place. RESULTS: The simeprevir unit price under the current Japanese pricing scheme is 13,122 Japanese yen (equivalent to 109.35 U.S. dollars as of April 2015). Depending on the selection of comparators and the pricing method, and assuming that HTA will be used as a basis for price setting, the estimated prices of simeprevir vary up to four times higher than under the current Japanese pricing scheme. CONCLUSIONS: Although the analysis is based on only one drug, it cannot be taken for granted that a new HTA system would reduce public healthcare expenditure in Japan.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of daclatasvir plus asunaprevir in difficult to treat Japanese patients chronically infected with hepatitis C genotype 1b.

AIM: Standard of care for chronic hepatitis C in Japan is currently a pegylated interferon (IFN)-α + ribavirin (PR)-based regimen, notably associated with efficacy and tolerability issues. The advent of novel direct-acting antivirals (DAA) has provided more efficacious and better tolerated treatments. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of the daclatasvir + asunaprevir (DCV + ASV) DAA regimen in patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1b who had previously not responded to or were ineligible for IFN-containing regimens. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis using an established Markov model compared DCV + ASV with simeprevir + PR (SMV + PR), telaprevir + PR (TVR + PR) and no treatment using Japanese-specific model inputs, with costs and utility values discounted at 2%. A cohort of patients was simulated until death and predicted quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and costs were estimated. A subgroup analysis of patients with no DCV resistance was conducted. RESULTS: In all scenarios, DCV + ASV was predicted to be dominant over the comparator; namely, DCV + ASV was associated with increased QALY gains and decreased cost. In patients treated during the chronic hepatitis C stage, cost reductions were ¥1 057 288-2 619 206, and in patients treated during the compensated cirrhosis (CC) stage, reductions were ¥1 032 224-2 531 930. QALY gains were 0.749-2.609 and 0.874-3.043, respectively. Results improved when considering the subgroup of patients without DCV resistance. CONCLUSION: Cost-effectiveness conclusions are similar for patients treated in the chronic hepatitis C and CC disease stages, with DCV + ASV expected to be cost-saving versus standard of care in Japan for patients with HCV genotype 1b patients who have failed prior therapy or are IFN-ineligible/intolerant.

Cost-effectiveness of left atrial appendage closure with Watchman for non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients in Japan.

AIMS: Left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) has been demonstrated to be cost-saving relative to oral anticoagulants for stroke prophylaxis in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in the United States and Europe. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of LAAC with the Watchman device relative to warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for stroke risk reduction in NVAF from a Japanese public healthcare payer perspective. METHODS: A Markov model was developed with 70-year-old patients using a lifetime time horizon. LAAC clinical inputs were from pooled, 5-year PROTECT AF and PREVAIL trials; warfarin and DOAC inputs were from published meta-analyses. Baseline stroke and bleeding risks were from the SALUTE trial on LAAC. Cost inputs were from the Japanese Medical Data Vision database. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Over the lifetime time horizon, LAAC was less costly than warfarin (savings of JPY 1,878,335, equivalent to US $17,600) and DOACs (savings of JPY 1,198,096, equivalent to US $11,226). LAAC also provided 1.500 more incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) than warfarin and 0.996 more than DOACs. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, LAAC was cost-effective relative to warfarin and DOACs in 99.98% and 99.73% of simulations, respectively. LAAC dominated (had higher cumulative QALYs and was less costly than) warfarin and DOACs in 89.94% and 83.35% of simulations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Over a lifetime time horizon, LAAC is cost-saving relative to warfarin and DOACs for stroke risk reduction in NVAF patients in Japan and is associated with improved quality-of-life.

This study examined the cost-effectiveness of left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) compared to oral anticoagulants for stroke risk reduction among individuals with a specific type of irregular heart rhythm called non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of LAAC using the Watchman device in comparison to warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) from the perspective of Japan's public healthcare system. To investigate this, a computer-based model was developed involving 70-year-old patients over their lifetime. Data from notable studies such as the PROTECT AF and PREVAIL trials (covering 5 years) for LAAC and published meta-analyses for warfarin and DOACs were incorporated into the model. Baseline stroke and bleeding risks were derived from the SALUTE trial on LAAC. Cost inputs were based on data from the Japanese Medical Data Vision database. Additionally, we performed thorough cost-effectiveness analyses, including probabilistic and one-way sensitivity assessments. Our findings revealed that, over a lifetime, LAAC was more cost-effective than both warfarin and DOACs. Further, LAAC contributed an additional 1.500 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared to warfarin and 0.996 QALYs compared to DOACs. In the long-term, adopting LAAC as an alternative to warfarin and DOACs is a cost-effective strategy for reducing stroke risk in NVAF patients in Japan. Moreover, it is associated with enhanced quality-of-life. These findings hold significant implications for informing decision-making in healthcare policies and clinical practices for NVAF patients.

Cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet hydrochloride for hemodialysis patients with severe secondary hyperparathyroidism in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Cinacalcet effectively reduces elevated levels of parathyroid hormone (PTH) in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT), even those with severe disease for whom parathyroidectomy can be the treatment of choice. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet treatment in hemodialysis patients with severe SHPT in Japan. STUDY DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis. SETTING & POPULATION: Patients with severe SHPT (intact PTH >500 pg/mL) who were receiving hemodialysis in Japan. MODEL, PERSPECTIVE, & TIMEFRAME: A Markov model was constructed from the health care system perspective in Japan. Patients were followed up over their lifetime. Dialysis costs were not included in the base case. INTERVENTION: Cinacalcet as an addition to conventional treatment compared to conventional treatment alone. In both arms, patients underwent parathyroidectomy if intact PTH level was >500 pg/mL for 6 months and they were eligible for surgery. OUTCOMES: Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: ICERs for cinacalcet for those who were eligible for surgery and those who were not were $352,631/QALY gained and $21,613/QALY gained, respectively. Sensitivity and scenario analyses showed that results were fairly robust to variations in model parameters and assumptions. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, cinacalcet was cost-effective in only 0.9% of simulations for those eligible for surgery, but in more than 99.9% of simulations for those ineligible for surgery, if society would be willing to pay $50,000 per additional QALY. LIMITATIONS: Data for the long-term effect of cinacalcet on patient-level outcomes are limited. The model predicted rates for clinical events using data for the surrogate biochemical end points. CONCLUSIONS: The use of cinacalcet to treat severe SHPT is likely to be cost-effective for only those who cannot undergo parathyroid surgery for medical or personal reasons.

The burden of illness for patients with viral hepatitis C: evidence from a national survey in Japan.

OBJECTIVE: Viral hepatitis C (HCV) affects 170 million patients worldwide and 2 million patients in Japan. The objective of the current study was to examine the burden of HCV in Japan from a patient's perspective. METHODS: Using data from the 2008 and 2009 Japan National Health and Wellness Surveys, patients who reported an HCV diagnosis (n = 306) were compared with a propensity-score-matched control group (n = 306) on measures of quality of life (using the Medical Outcomes Study 12-Item Short Form Survey Instrument version 2), work productivity (using the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment questionnaire), and health-care resource use. All analyses applied sampling weights to project to the population. RESULTS: Prior to matching, patients with HCV had higher rates of hepatocellular carcinoma (4.88% vs. 0.02%) and cirrhosis (12.20% vs. 0.11%) than did subjects without HCV. The propensity-matching process eliminated differences between the two groups on demographics and patient characteristics. The postmatching analysis found significantly lower levels of quality of life for patients with HCV as measured by bodily pain (72.07 vs. 76.28), general health (44.64 vs. 48.61), and mental health (66.50 vs. 70.32) (all Ps < 0.05). Furthermore, compared with the matched group, the HCV group had significantly higher workplace absenteeism (8.59% vs. 4.12%), overall work impairment (26.08% vs. 17.32%), and health-care provider visits in the past 6 months (14.80 vs. 9.74). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that HCV can be a substantial burden on patients in terms of quality of life in both physical and mental health measures. In addition, HCV can be a significant cost driver in terms of health-care use and lost productivity.

[Cost-effectiveness analysis of azacitidine for myelodysplastic syndromes in Japan].

The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of azacitidine therapy for patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. A Markov model was developed to estimate the total additional direct cost and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with azacitidine therapy versus best-supportive care in patients with high-risk MDS. The cost-effectiveness of azacitidine was evaluated with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which represents the additional cost per QALY gained from the more effective treatment. Azacitidine therapy was 1.83 million yen more costly per patient but yielded an additional 0.353 QALYs. The ICER (Increment of Cost-effectiveness Ratio) was 5.18 million yen per QALY. In conclusion, because the ICER was less than the threshold for acceptable cost-effectiveness in Japan, azacitidine therapy for MDS patient was assumed to be cost-effective.

A Theory of Diagnostic Testing to Stop the Virus Spreading: Evidence-based Reasoning to Resolve the COVID-19 Crisis by Testing.

In this study, the complicated reasoning and processes inherent in diagnostic testing were analyzed, and a mathematical theory was developed for effectively stopping the transmission of infection in the context of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As a result of this work, a new formula was developed for the "boundary condition for contagion containment," which, based on a horizontal transmission model, gives the lower limit of sensitivity for a diagnostic test to stop the virus spreading. Two parameters are considered in the model: the level of transmission and the effective reproduction number. In example computations, the formula indicated that a one-off polymerase chain reaction-based test with a sensitivity of 85% would not be sufficient to contain highly contagious infections such as the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, which would likely require a sensitivity close to 100% for its containment. Furthermore, a cascade judgment system for multiple tests was proposed and examined as a form of triplet test system. This approach can enhance the accuracy of COVID-19 testing up to the minimum level needed to stop the virus spreading. The theory developed in this study will not only contribute as an academic exercise, but also be useful for making evidence-based decisions on public policy for pandemic control.

Prevention of type 2 diabetes in a primary healthcare setting: three-year results of lifestyle intervention in Japanese subjects with impaired glucose tolerance.

BACKGROUND: A randomized control trial was performed to test whether a lifestyle intervention program, carried out in a primary healthcare setting using existing resources, can reduce the incidence of type 2 diabetes in Japanese with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). The results of 3 years' intervention are summarized. METHODS: Through health checkups in communities and workplaces, 304 middle-aged IGT subjects with a mean body mass index (BMI) of 24.5 kg/m2 were recruited and randomized to the intervention group or control group. The lifestyle intervention was carried out for 3 years by public health nurses using the curriculum and educational materials provided by the study group. RESULTS: After 1 year, the intervention had significantly improved body weight (-1.5 ± 0.7 vs. -0.7 ± 2.5 kg in the control; p = 0.023) and daily non-exercise leisure time energy expenditure (25 ± 113 vs. -3 ± 98 kcal; p = 0.045). Insulin sensitivity assessed by the Matsuda index was improved by the intervention during the 3 years. The 3-year cumulative incidence tended to be lower in the intervention group (14.8% vs.8.2%, log-rank test: p = 0.097). In a sub-analysis for the subjects with a BMI > 22.5 kg/m2, a significant reduction in the cumulative incidence was found (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: The present lifestyle intervention program using existing healthcare resources is beneficial in preventing diabetes in Japanese with IGT. This has important implications for primary healthcare-based diabetes prevention. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000003136.

Efficacy of biologic therapies for biologic-naïve Japanese patients with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Several biologic therapies are approved in Japan to treat moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis (UC), but there are no published comparative efficacy studies in a Japanese population. We compared the efficacy of biologics approved in Japan (adalimumab, infliximab, golimumab, and vedolizumab) for treating biologic-naïve patients with UC at their approved doses. METHODS: A targeted literature review identified 4 randomized controlled trials of biologics for UC in biologicnaïve Japanese patients. For each study, efficacy outcome data from induction (weeks 6-12) and maintenance (weeks 30-60) treatment were extracted for analysis. Treatment effects on clinical response, clinical remission, and mucosal healing relative to the average placebo results across all trials were estimated using network meta-analyses followed by transformation into probabilities and odds ratios (OR). RESULTS: At the end of induction, the likelihood of clinical response and clinical remission was highest with infliximab (OR: 2.12 and 2.35, respectively) and vedolizumab (OR: 2.10 and 2.32, respectively); the likelihood of mucosal healing was highest with infliximab (OR: 2.24) and adalimumab (OR: 1.86). During maintenance, the likelihood of clinical response and clinical remission was highest with vedolizumab (OR: 6.44 and 4.68, respectively) and golimumab (OR: 5.13 and 3.84, respectively); the likelihood of mucosal healing was significantly higher than placebo with all biologics. CONCLUSIONS: All active treatments were efficacious compared with placebo. Infliximab and vedolizumab had the highest odds for induction of clinical response, remission, and mucosal healing. Golimumab and vedolizumab had numerically higher odds of achieving efficacy outcomes in the maintenance phase.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of branded and authorized generic celecoxib for patients with chronic pain in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of branded and authorized generic (AG) celecoxib for chronic pain patients with osteoarthritis (OA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and low back pain (LBP), using real-world cost information for loxoprofen and pharmacotherapy for gastrointestinal bleeding. METHODS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was performed as a long-term simulation using the Markov model from the Japanese public healthcare payer's perspective. The analysis was conducted using loxoprofen with real-world weighted price by branded/generic distribution (hereinafter, loxoprofen with weighted price) as a comparator. In the model, we simulated the prognosis of patients with chronic pain by OA, RA, and LBP treated with loxoprofen or celecoxib, over a lifetime period. RESULTS: A cost-increase of 129,688 JPY (1,245.00 USD) for branded celecoxib and a cost-reduction of 6,268 JPY (60.17 USD) for AG celecoxib were recognized per patient in lifetime horizon, compared to loxoprofen with weighted price. No case was recognized to reverse the results of cost-saving by AG celecoxib in one-way sensitivity analysis. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of branded celecoxib attained 5,403,667 JPY/QALY (51,875.20 USD/QALY), compared to loxoprofen with the weighted price. CONCLUSION: The current cost-effectiveness analysis for AG celecoxib revealed its good value for costs, considering the patients' future risk of gastrointestinal injury; also, the impact on costs due to AG celecoxib against loxoprofen will be small. It implies that the disadvantage of AG celecoxib being slightly more expensive than generic loxoprofen could be offset by the good cost-effectiveness during the prognosis.

Health technology assessment in Japan: a work in progress.

Background: In Japan, pharmacoeconomic requirements for list-price adjustment were institutionalized in April 2019 following provisional implementation of a new Health Technology Assessment (HTA) program 2016-2019. Since April 2019, submission of cost-effectiveness evidence to the Central Social Insurance Medical Council (Chuikyo) as part of the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare has been mandatory for selected pharmaceuticals and medical devices.Methods: Based on a review of publications and commentaries since April 2019, together with views from a group of experts on key issues to be addressed, this report provides an update on recent HTA developments and key challenges still to be addressed.Results and Discussion: Japan's new HTA program is a first step toward development of a universal healthcare system that can be sustainable for many years into the future. Currently, Japan's HTA program requires provision of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) as evidence, with quality-adjusted life years as the preferred outcome measure. Prices can be adjusted both upward and downward according to the degree of the ICER estimate. Japan is the first country to have adopted an algorithmic method for "ICER-based" pricing; however, HTA measures that extend beyond a single ICER estimate are needed to take full advantage of HTA in the future. In particular, generation of evidence of value should support changes to the healthcare system so that incentives for innovation are not diminished while industry and government are not overburdened by the generation or assessment of evidence. There is a need to ensure scientifically sound HTA expertise across all sectors in Japan, and therefore enhancement of HTA literacy and capability among healthcare professionals, academia, government, and industry should be a priority.

The Development of Health Technology Assessment in Asia: Current Status and Future Trends.

Health technology assessment (HTA) has long been employed by many countries around the world, but its adoption in Asia has been slower. Only recently have a growing number of Asian countries started to implement HTA for pricing and reimbursement decisions. The objective of this article is to provide an overview of how HTA has been or is being implemented in Asia within the context of a country's existing-and often complex-coverage, reimbursement, and pricing schemes. Three countries at different stages of HTA implementation were selected as case studies: South Korea, where there is a young yet established HTA program; Japan, where a 3-year HTA pilot program has just concluded; and China, where HTA efforts are underway but have not been formally implemented. Not only do the experiences of these 3 countries well exemplify how the organization and scope of HTA can be customized to meet a country's unique healthcare needs, but they also provide the opportunity to outline some common key challenges that must be overcome to implement and develop HTA competencies and capabilities.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of oseltamivir for influenza treatment considering the virus emerging resistant to the drug in Japan.

AIM: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of oseltamivir for influenza in Japan considering the complications and the emergence of oseltamivir-resistant virus. METHODS: Study design is a cost-effectiveness analysis in decision analytic modeling based on previously published evidence. Outcome measures included costs and quality-adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: In the base-case analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of oseltamivir during influenza and complications was JPY398,571 ($3320) per QALY without productivity loss, which implied oseltamivir is evidently cost-effective. Furthermore, considering the productivity loss, the ICER for oseltamivir turned to be negative, which means simply dominant. When the prevalence was in the low range of 10% to 38%, oseltamivir became less cost-effective than conventional treatment. Regarding potential emergence of the drug-resistant virus, we found the dominance of oseltamivir will vanish if the emerging rate becomes larger than 27%. The two-way sensitivity analysis also suggested that if the resistant virus rate becomes less and the prevalence higher, then oseltamivir becomes more advantageous. The analysis for uncertainty, using cost-effectiveness acceptability curve by Monte Carlo simulation, resulted in the estimate of about 80% chance that oseltamivir could be cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay level of JPY6,000,000 ($50,000), which is commonly accepted as an affordable threshold.

Evidence-based decision-making on medical technologies in China, Japan, and Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: To review the use of evidence in the market approval process, reimbursement, and price control mechanisms for medicines and medical devices in China, Japan, and Singapore. METHODOLOGY: Documentary reviews relevant to public health policy and management by government authorities. RESULTS: Drug regulatory authorities play a vital role in the market authorization process of medical technologies. The approval criteria in the three countries are similar to those of the US Food and Drug Administration and many other countries, whose core measures are efficacy, safety, and quality, along with risk-based analyses in China and Singapore. All established the national drug list (Japan) or lists (China and Singapore) for reimbursement. Although Japan reimburses any drugs listed, China and Singapore selectively reimburse regarding the types of the list. The cost-effectiveness is utilized for prioritization of new drugs listed in Singapore. Japan controls the price by government, whereas Singapore keeps market liberalism, and China maintains a mixture of both. CONCLUSION: All three countries have established their own mechanisms, but cost-effectiveness requirements have not been fully introduced yet, partially applied to the reimbursement processes in Singapore.

The ISPOR Good Practices for Quality Improvement of Cost-Effectiveness Research Task Force Report.

OBJECTIVES: The International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Health Science Policy Council recommended and the ISPOR Board of Directors approved the formation of a Task Force to critically examine the major issues related to Quality Improvement in Cost-effectiveness Research (QICER). The Council's primary recommendation for this Task Force was that it should report on the quality of cost-effectiveness research and make recommendations to facilitate the improvement of pharmacoeconomics and health outcomes research and its use in stimulating better health care and policy. Task force members were knowledgeable and experienced in medicine, pharmacy, biostatistics, health policy and health-care decision-making, biomedical knowledge transfer, health economics, and pharmacoeconomics. They were drawn from industry, academia, consulting organizations, and advisors to governments and came from Japan, the Netherlands, Canada and the United States. METHODS: Face-to-face meetings of the Task Force were held at ISPOR North American and European meetings and teleconferences occurred every few months. Literature reviews and surveys were conducted and the first preliminary findings presented at an open forum at the May 2008 ISPOR meeting in Toronto. The final draft report was circulated to the expert reviewer group and then to the entire membership for comment. The draft report was posted on the ISPOR Web site in April 2009. All formal comments received were posted to the association Web site and presented for discussion at the Task Force forum during the ISPOR 14th Annual International Meeting in May 2009. Comments and feedback from the forums, reviewers and membership were considered in the final report. Once Task Force consensus was reached, the article was submitted to Value in Health. CONCLUSIONS: The QICER Task Force recommends that ISPOR implement the following: * With respect to CER guidelines, that ISPOR promote harmonization of guidelines, allowing for differences in application, regional needs and politics; evaluate available instruments or promote development of a new one that will allow standardized quantification of the impact of CER guidelines on the quality of CER studies; report periodically on those countries or regions that have developed guidelines; periodically evaluate the quality of published studies (those journals with CER guidances) or those submitted to decision-making bodies (as public transparency increases). * With respect to methodologies, that ISPOR promote publication of methodological guidelines in more applied journals in more easily understandable format to transfer knowledge to researchers who need to apply more rigorous methods; promote full availability of models in electronic format to combat space restrictions in hardcopy publications; promote consistency of methodological review for all CER studies; promote adoption of explicit best practices guidelines among regulatory and reimbursement authorities; periodically update all ISPOR Task Force reports; periodically review use of ISPOR Task Force guidelines; periodically report on statistical and methodological challenges in HE; evaluate periodically whether ISPOR's methodological guidelines lead to improved quality; and support training and knowledge transfer of rigorous CER methodologies to researchers and health care decision-makers. * With respect to publications, that ISPOR develop standard CER guidances to which journals will be able to refer their authors and their reviewers; lobby to establish these guidances within the International Committee for Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) Requirements to which most journals refer in their Author Instructions; provide support in terms of additional reviewer expertise to those journals lacking appropriate reviewers; periodically report on journals publishing CER research; periodically report on the quality of CER publications; and support training and knowledge transfer of the use of these guidelines to researchers and reviewers. * With respect to evidence-based health-care decision-making, that ISPOR recognize at its annual meetings those countries/agencies/private companies/researchers using CER well, and those practitioners and researchers supporting good patient use of CER in decision-making; and promote public presentation of case studies of applied use of CER concepts or guidelines.

Meta-analysis: diagnostic accuracy of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody and rheumatoid factor for rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid factor (RF) and autoantibodies against cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) are markers that might help physicians diagnose rheumatoid arthritis. PURPOSE: To determine whether anti-CCP antibody more accurately identifies patients with rheumatoid arthritis and better predicts radiographic progression than does RF. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE through September 2006 and reference lists of retrieved studies and review articles. STUDY SELECTION: Studies in any language that enrolled at least 10 participants and that examined the role of anti-CCP antibody and RF in the diagnosis or prognosis of known or suspected rheumatoid arthritis. DATA EXTRACTION: Two authors independently evaluated studies for inclusion, rated methodological quality, and abstracted relevant data. DATA SYNTHESIS: The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects method was used to summarize sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative likelihood ratios from 37 studies of anti-CCP antibody and 50 studies of RF. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for anti-CCP antibody were 67% (95% CI, 62% to 72%), 95% (CI, 94% to 97%), 12.46 (CI, 9.72 to 15.98), and 0.36 (CI, 0.31 to 0.42), respectively. For IgM RF, the values were 69% (CI, 65% to 73%), 85% (CI, 82% to 88%), 4.86 (CI, 3.95 to 5.97), and 0.38 (CI, 0.33 to 0.44). Likelihood ratios among IgM RF, IgG RF, and IgA RF seemed to be similar. Results from studies of patients with early rheumatoid arthritis were similar to those from all studies. Three of 4 studies found that risk for radiographic progression was greater with anti-CCP antibody positivity than with IgM RF positivity. LIMITATIONS: Many studies had methodological limitations. Studies of RF were heterogeneous and had wide ranges of sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-CCP antibodies are more specific than RF for diagnosing rheumatoid arthritis and may better predict erosivedisease.

Pharmaceutical pricing in Japan: market evidence for rheumatoid arthritis treatment.

BACKGROUND: Drug price setting is one of the key challenges faced by the Japanese health care system. This study aims to identify the determinants of drug price in Japan using the example of the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment market. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In order to compare prices across different products, we calculated prices per defined daily dose using WHO methodology. Price determinants were calculated both at launch and over time using IMS quarterly data on medicines approved for RA treatment in Japan from 2012 to 2015. Pharmaceutical pricing was modeled as a function of clinical and economic variables using regression analysis. RESULTS: For prices at the launch we found that differences in efficacy are not reflected in price differentials. We also report that the number of products within a molecule class had a negative effect on prices while originator drugs maintained higher prices. CONCLUSION: Although the existing pricing rules in Japan are very comprehensive they do not necessarily capture differences in product characteristics. The findings here support the notion that competitive forces are weak in highly regulated markets such as Japan.

Determinants of Glycated Hemoglobin in Subjects With Impaired Glucose Tolerance: Subanalysis of the Japan Diabetes Prevention Program.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence is available about the relationship of lifestyle factors with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance. The aim of study was to identify such determinant factors of HbA1c in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 121 men and 124 women with impaired glucose tolerance, who were diagnosed based on a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test. Demographic and biochemical parameters, including the body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h post-load glucose (2-h PG), and HbA1c, were measured. The pancreatic ß-cell function and insulin resistance were assessed using homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-ß). Dietary intake was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. RESULTS: The levels of FPG, 2-h PG, and carbohydrate intake were correlated with the HbA1c level in men, while the FPG and 2-h PG levels were correlated with the HbA1c level in women. In multiple regression analyses, BMI, FPG, 2-h PG, and white rice intake were associated with HbA1c levels in men, while BMI, FPG, HOMA-ß, and bread intake were associated with HbA1c levels in women. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings suggest that a substantial portion of HbA1c may be composed of not only glycemic but also several lifestyle factors in men with impaired glucose tolerance. These factors can be taken into consideration as modifiable determinants in assessing the HbA1c level for the diagnosis and therapeutic monitoring of the disease course.

Clinical epidemiologic evaluation of BSE screening tests in Japan.

To address the public concerns provoked by the first incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Japan, the BSE screening tests in Japan are evaluated in use of modeling analysis in evidence-based diagnosis. Under the assumptions based on epidemiological statistics such as the annual number of screened cattle with 1,227,385, the annual incidence of BSE infection with four, and the sensitivity of 99.0% for both primary and secondary tests, it was estimated that, the current threshold of cut-off for the BSE positive would have 0.119 false negatives per year. The decrease of the sensitivity of ELISA down to 90.0% resulted in the increase up to 0.792 false negatives per year. Even with the 90.0% sensitivity, shifting the cut-off point from the current level to the best one remarkably reduced the false negatives per year down to 0.0004. Regarding false positives, with 99.7% specificity for both ELISA and the confirmatory tests revealed the risk of 0.03 false positives per year, while the cut-off shifting that can best minimize false negatives largely increased the false positives up to 11,013. Although it is confirmed the possibility of false negatives is very low, the current method of screening can be further improved by shifting the decision level of cut-off to define the BSE "positive". Such an improvement, however, raises an issue of trade-off : the less false negatives, the more false positives. We believe our approach can help the public perception of an optimum decision-making for BSE screening, considering the trade-off.

The logistic regression and ROC analysis of group-based screening for predicting diabetes incidence in four years.

In diabetes screening with hemoglobin A1c in lieu of plasma glucose, the optimum cut-off point for predicting the incidence of diabetes mellitus in the four-year period was examined. In addition, considerations were given on items in the screening and questionnaire aside from hemoglobin A1c, which would be useful in predicting diabetes aside from hemoglobin A1c. The optimum cut-off point of hemoglobin A1c to predict diabetes, based on receiver operating characteristic curve, was 5.3 percent (sensitivity, 84.2%; specificity, 92.1%). Based on the logistic regression analysis, useful items (other than hemoglobin A1c) were alanine aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase. A combined application of hemoglobin A1c with alanine aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase for predicting the incidence of diabetes in the four-year period resulted in the sensitivity of 86.8% and the specificity of 96.3%. When the combined application was compared with the sole use of hemoglobin A1c at 5.3%, the combined use was superior to the latter in terms of both sensitivity and specificity, resulting in the reduction of false positives by more than 50%.