Mortality after emergency unit fluid bolus in febrile Ugandan children.

OBJECTIVES: Pediatric fluid resuscitation in sub-Saharan Africa has traditionally occurred in inpatients. The landmark Fluid Expansion as Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial showed fluid boluses for febrile children in this inpatient setting increased mortality. As emergency care expands in sub-Saharan Africa, fluid resuscitation increasingly occurs in the emergency unit. The objective of this study was to determine the mortality impact of emergency unit fluid resuscitation on febrile pediatric patients in Uganda. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from 2012-2019 from a single emergency unit in rural Western Uganda to compare three-day mortality for febrile patients that did and did not receive fluids in the emergency unit. Propensity score matching was used to create matched cohorts. Crude and multivariable logistic regression analysis (using both complete case analysis and multiple imputation) were performed on matched and unmatched cohorts. Sensitivity analysis was done separately for patients meeting FEAST inclusion and exclusion criteria. RESULTS: The analysis included 3087 febrile patients aged 2 months to 12 years with 1,526 patients receiving fluids and 1,561 not receiving fluids. The matched cohorts each had 1,180 patients. Overall mortality was 4.0%. No significant mortality benefit or harm was shown in the crude unmatched (Odds Ratio [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.88 [0.61-1.26] or crude matched (1.00 [0.66-1.50]) cohorts. Adjusted cohort analysis (including both complete case analysis and multiple imputation) and sensitivity analysis of patients meeting FEAST inclusion and exclusion criteria all also failed to show benefit or harm. Post-hoc power calculations showed the study was powered to detect the absolute harm seen in FEAST but not the relative risk increase. CONCLUSIONS: This study's primary finding is that fluid resuscitation in the emergency unit did not significantly increase or decrease three-day mortality for febrile children in Uganda. Universally aggressive or fluid-sparing emergency unit protocols are unlikely to be best practices, and choices about fluid resuscitation should be individualized.

Emergency care of sepsis in sub-Saharan Africa: Mortality and non-physician clinician management of sepsis in rural Uganda from 2010 to 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Little data exists from sub-Saharan Africa describing incidence and outcomes of sepsis in emergency units and uncertainty exists surrounding optimal management of sepsis in low-income settings. There exists limited data regarding quality care metrics for non-physician clinicians trained in emergency care. The objective of this study was to describe changes in septic patients over time and evaluate associations between sepsis care and mortality. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of all consecutive patients seen from 2010-2019 in a rural Ugandan emergency unit staffed by non-physician clinicians was performed using an electronic database based on paper charts. Sepsis was defined as suspected infection with a quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (qSOFA)≥1. Multi-variable logistic regression was used to analyze three-day mortality. RESULTS: Overall, 48,653 patient visits from 2010-2019 yielded 17,490 encounters for patients age≥18 who had suspected infection, including 10,437 with sepsis. The annual proportion of patients with sepsis decreased from 45.0%% to 21.3% and the proportion with malarial sepsis decreased from 17.7% to 2.1% during the study period. Rates of septic patients receiving quality care ("both fluids and anti-infectives") increased over time (21.2% in 2012 to 32.0% in 2019, p<0.001), but mortality did not significantly improve (4.5% in 2012 to 6.4% in 2019, p = 0.50). The increasing quality of non-physician clinician care was not associated with reduced mortality, and treatment with "both fluids and antibiotics" was associated with increased mortality (RR = 1.55, 95%CI 1.10-2.00). CONCLUSION: The largest study of sepsis management and outcomes ever published in both Uganda and sub-Saharan Africa showed sepsis and malarial sepsis decreasing from 2010 to 2019. The increasing quality of non-physician clinician care did not significantly reduce mortality and treatment with "both fluids and antibiotics" increased mortality. With causal associations between antibiotics and mortality deemed implausible, associations between sepsis mortality and interventions likely represent confounding by indication. Defining optimal sepsis care regionally will likely require randomized controlled trials.

Defining High-risk Emergency Chief Complaints: Data-driven Triage for Low- and Middle-income Countries.

OBJECTIVES: Emergency medicine in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is hindered by lack of research into patient outcomes. Chief complaints (CCs) are fundamental to emergency care but have only recently been uniquely codified for an LMIC setting in Uganda. It is not known whether CCs independently predict emergency unit patient outcomes. METHODS: Patient data collected in a Ugandan emergency unit between 2009 and 2018 were randomized into validation and derivation data sets. A recursive partitioning algorithm stratified CCs by 3-day mortality risk in each group. The process was repeated in 10,000 bootstrap samples to create an averaged risk ranking. Based on this ranking, CCs were categorized as "high-risk" (>2× baseline mortality), "medium-risk" (between 2 and 0.5× baseline mortality), and "low-risk" (<0.5× baseline mortality). Risk categories were then included in a logistic regression model to determine if CCs independently predicted 3-day mortality. RESULTS: Overall, the derivation data set included 21,953 individuals with 7,313 in the validation data set. In total, 43 complaints were categorized, and 12 CCs were identified as high-risk. When controlled for triage data including age, sex, HIV status, vital signs, level of consciousness, and number of complaints, high-risk CCs significantly increased 3-day mortality odds ratio (OR = 2.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.95 to 2.93, p < 0.001) while low-risk CCs significantly decreased 3-day mortality odds (OR = 0.16, 95% CI = 0.09 to 0.29, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High-risk CCs were identified and found to predict increased 3-day mortality independent of vital signs and other data available at triage. This list can be used to expand local triage systems and inform emergency training programs. The methodology can be reproduced in other LMIC settings to reflect their local disease patterns.

Risk factors for non-communicable diseases in rural Uganda: a pilot surveillance project among diabetes patients at a referral hospital clinic.

INTRODUCTION: Despite an increasing recognition of non- communicable diseases (NCDs) in sub-Saharan Africa, there is lack of well established surveillance systems for these diseases. In an effort to understand burden of NCDs in low-resource settings, the African Field Epidemiology Network launched a pilot project in 2009 to routinely capture patient data in the diabetes clinic of Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and, the gender- and age- specific distributions of common NCD risk factors among diabetic patients attending a referral hospital in rural Uganda. METHODS: A relational Access database was designed to collect information on NCD risk factors. These included smoking, alcohol use, family history of diabetes, hypertension and body mass index. Univariate analyses were done and differences in proportions tested using chi-square P-values in STATA version 10.0. RESULTS: A total of 1,383 patient records were analyzed, with 61% being female and mean age of 39.6 years (SD 15.8). About 24% had a family history of diabetes. Smoking and alcohol use were more prevalent among males (16.6% vs. 8.3%; p<0.0001) and (30.7 vs. 13%; p<0.0001) respectively. Overweight, obesity and hypertension were more prevalent in women (18.6% vs. 9.7%, 8.6% vs. 2.6%; p<0.0001, and 40.3% vs. 33%, p=0.018) respectively. CONCLUSION: This pilot project shows that use of hospital-based data is a valuable initial step in setting up surveillance systems for NCDs in Uganda. Risk factors for NCDs were both age and gender-specific and predominantly related to lifestyle. This suggests the need to design gender-sensitive prevention interventions that target lifestyle modification in this setting.

Dyslipidaemia and hypertension among adults with diabetes in rural Uganda.

Dyslipidaemia and hypertension in patients with diabetes increase the risk of macrovascular and microvascular complications. We took anthropometric measurements, lipids, blood pressure and fasting blood sugar of 150 diabetics and 151 non-diabetics. Among the diabetics, 17 (11.3%) had total cholesterol (TC) > or =200 mg/dL, 70 (46.6%) had triglycerides (TG) > or =150 mg/dL, 78 (52%) had high density lipoprotein (HDL) < or =40 mg/dL and 26 (17.3%) had low density lipoprotein (LDL) > or =100 mg/dL. Diabetics were more likely to have raised TG, OR = 1.88 (95% CI 1.17 - 3.00), P = 0.01; high systolic blood pressure (SBP), OR= 3.22 (95% CI 1.86 - 5.59), P = 0.01; and high diastolic blood pressure (DBP) OR = 4.11(95% CI 1.86 - 5.59), P = 0.01. The prevalence of HDL and TG dyslipidaemia among the diabetics in Uganda is significantly higher than in non-diabetics, as is the prevalence of systolic and diastolic hypertension. Other studies need to be done to assess the effect of lipids on cardiovascular disease, mortality and morbidity in diabetic patients in Uganda.