Variable selection when estimating effects in external target populations.

External validity is an important part of epidemiologic research. To validly estimate effects in specific external target populations using a chosen effect measure (ie, "transport"), some methods require that one account for all effect measure modifiers (EMMs). However, little is known about how including other variables that are not EMMs (ie, non-EMMs) in adjustment sets affects estimates. Using simulations, we evaluated how inclusion of non-EMMs affected estimation of the transported risk difference (RD) by assessing the impacts of covariates that (1) differ (or not) between the trial and the target, (2) are associated with the outcome (or not), and (3) modify the RD (or not). We assessed variation and bias when covariates with each possible combination of these factors were used to transport RDs using outcome modeling or inverse odds weighting. Inclusion of variables that differed in distribution between the populations but were non-EMMs reduced precision, regardless of whether they were associated with the outcome. However, non-EMMs associated with selection did not amplify bias resulting from omission of necessary EMMs. Including all variables associated with the outcome may result in unnecessarily imprecise estimates when estimating treatment effects in external target populations.

Visualizing External Validity: Graphical Displays to Inform the Extension of Treatment Effects from Trials to Clinical Practice.

BACKGROUND: In the presence of effect measure modification, estimates of treatment effects from randomized controlled trials may not be valid in clinical practice settings. The development and application of quantitative approaches for extending treatment effects from trials to clinical practice settings is an active area of research. METHODS: In this article, we provide researchers with a practical roadmap and four visualizations to assist in variable selection for models to extend treatment effects observed in trials to clinical practice settings and to assess model specification and performance. We apply this roadmap and visualizations to an example extending the effects of adjuvant chemotherapy (5-fluorouracil vs. plus oxaliplatin) for colon cancer from a trial population to a population of individuals treated in community oncology practices in the United States. RESULTS: The first visualization screens for potential effect measure modifiers to include in models extending trial treatment effects to clinical practice populations. The second visualization displays a measure of covariate overlap between the clinical practice populations and the trial population. The third and fourth visualizations highlight considerations for model specification and influential observations. The conceptual roadmap describes how the output from the visualizations helps interrogate the assumptions required to extend treatment effects from trials to target populations. CONCLUSIONS: The roadmap and visualizations can inform practical decisions required for quantitatively extending treatment effects from trials to clinical practice settings.

Longitudinal associations between urinary biomarkers of phthalates and replacements with novel in vivo measures of placental health.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the longitudinal association between gestational phthalate exposure and in vivo placental outcomes? SUMMARY ANSWER: Phthalates were adversely associated with placental microvasculature, stiffness, and presence of calcification, with different metabolites associated with different outcomes. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Phthalate exposure is ubiquitous and implicated as a contributor to adverse pregnancy outcomes, possibly through impacts on the placenta. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A total of 303 women were recruited in early pregnancy and prospectively followed for up to eight visits across gestation in the Human Placenta and Phthalates study. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: At each visit, women provided urine samples and underwent placental ultrasounds. Urine was analyzed for 18 metabolites of phthalates and replacements. We took the geometric mean of repeated measurements to reflect pregnancy-averaged phthalate or replacement exposure for each participant (n = 303). Placental microvasculature, stiffness, and microcalcification presence were quantified from ultrasounds at each visit. Higher scores reflected worse placental function for all measures. Generalized linear mixed models were created to estimate the association between pregnancy-averaged exposure biomarker concentrations and repeated outcome measurements for microvasculature and stiffness. Gestational age at the time of calcification detection was modeled using Cox proportional hazards models. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Monocarboxyisononyl phthalate and summed di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate metabolites were associated with impaired microvasculature development, such that an interquartile range increase in concentration was associated with 0.11 standard deviation increase in the microvasculature ratio, indicating poorer vascularization (95% CI: 0.00, 0.22); 0.11 [95% CI: -0.01, 0.22], respectively. Monoethyl phthalate was associated with increased placental stiffness (0.09 [95% CI: -0.01, 0.19]) while summed di-iso-butyl phthalate metabolites and monobenzyl phthalate were associated with increased hazard of calcification detection (hazard ratios: 1.18 [95% CI: 0.98, 1.42]; 1.13 [95% CI: 0.96, 1.34]). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Outcomes used in this study are novel and further investigation is needed to provide clinical context and relevance. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: We found evidence of associations between select phthalate biomarkers and various aspects of in vivo placental health, although we did not observe consistency across placental outcomes. These findings could illustrate heterogeneous effects of phthalate exposure on placental function. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This research was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (ZIA ES103344), and NIEHS T32ES007018. The authors declare that they have no competing interests to disclose. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by the CDC, the Public Health Service, or the US Department of Health and Human Services. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Individual and joint effects of prenatal PM2.5 and maternal stress on child temperament.

Prenatal fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and maternal psychological functioning have been associated with child cognitive outcomes, though their independent and joint impacts on earlier behavioral outcomes remains less studied. We used data from 382 mother-child pairs from a prospective birth cohort in Mexico City. Temperament was measured at 24 months using the Carey Toddler Temperament Scale (TTS). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to update the factor structure of the TTS. During pregnancy, mothers completed the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised, Edinburgh Depression Scale, pregnancy-specific anxiety scale, and the Perceived Stress Scale. Pregnancy PM2.5 was assessed using estimates from a satellite-based exposure model. We assessed the association between prenatal maternal stress and PM2.5 on temperament, in both independent and joint models. Quantile g-computation was used to estimate the joint associations. Models were adjusted for maternal age, SES, education, child sex, and child age. In EFA, we identified three temperament factors related to effortful control, extraversion, and negative affect. Our main results showed that higher levels of PM2.5 and several of the maternal psychological functioning measures were related to both effortful control and negative affect in the child, both individually and as a mixture. For instance, a one quartile increase in the prenatal mixture was associated with higher negative affect scores in the child (0.34, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.53). We observed modification of these associations by maternal SES, with associations seen only among lower SES participants for both effortful control (-0.45, 95% CI: -0.70, -0.20) and negative affect outcomes (0.60, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.85). Prenatal PM2.5 and maternal psychological functioning measures were associated with toddler temperament outcomes, providing evidence for impacts of chemical and non-chemical stressors on early child health.

Urinary metabolite concentrations of phthalate and plasticizers in infancy and childhood in the UNC baby connectome project.

INTRODUCTION: Existing evidence suggests that exposure to phthalates is higher among younger age groups. However, limited knowledge exists on how phthalate exposure, as well as exposure to replacement plasticizers, di(isononyl) cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate (DINCH) and di-2-ethylhexyl terephthalate (DEHTP), change from infancy through early childhood. METHODS: Urine samples were collected across the first 5 years of life from typically developing infants and young children enrolled between 2017 and 2020 in the longitudinal UNC Baby Connectome Project. From 438 urine samples among 187 participants, we quantified concentrations of monobutyl phthalate (MnBP), mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate (MCPP), monoisobutyl phthalate (MiBP), monoethyl phthalate (MEP), monobenzyl phthalate (MBzP), and metabolites of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP), diisonoyl phthalate (DiNP), DINCH and DEHTP. Specific gravity (SG) adjusted metabolite and molar sum concentrations were compared across age groups. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated among 122 participants with multiple urine specimens (373 samples). RESULTS: Most phthalate metabolites showed high detection frequencies (>80% of samples). Replacement plasticizers DINCH (58-60%) and DEHTP (>97%) were also commonly found. DiNP metabolites were less frequently detected (<10%). For some metabolites, SG-adjusted concentrations were inversely associated with age, with the highest concentrations found in the first year of life. ICCs revealed low to moderate reliability in metabolite measurements (ρ = 0.10-0.48) suggesting a high degree of within-individual variation in exposure among this age group. The first 6 months (compared to remaining age groups) showed an increased ratio of carboxylated metabolites of DEHP and DEHTP, compared to other common metabolites, but no clear age trends for DINCH metabolite ratios were observed. CONCLUSION: Metabolites of phthalates and replacements plasticizers were widely detected in infancy and early childhood, with the highest concentrations observed in the first year of life for several metabolites. Higher proportions of carboxylated metabolites of DEHP and DEHTP in younger age groups indicate potential differences in metabolism during infancy.

Glucagon-like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonists and Asthma Exacerbations: Which Patients Benefit Most?

RATIONALE: While recent evidence suggested glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA) may reduce the risk of asthma exacerbations, it remains unclear which subpopulations might derive the most benefit from GLP1RA treatment. OBJECTIVE: To identify characteristics of patients with asthma that predict who might benefit the most from GLP1RA treatment using real-world data. METHODS: We implemented an active-comparator, new-user design analysis using commercially insured patients ages 18-65 from Marketscan data 2007-2019 and identified two cohorts: GLP1RA vs thiazolidinediones and GLP1RA vs sulfonylureas. The outcome was acute exacerbation of asthma (hospital admission or emergency department (ED) visit for asthma) within 180 days after initiation. We applied iterative causal forest (iCF), a novel causal machine learning subgrouping algorithm, to assess HTE. In identified subgroups, we predicted propensity score, conducted propensity score trimming, and then estimated adjusted risk differences (aRD) for the effect of GLP1RA relative to comparators on asthma exacerbation using inverse probability treatment weighting in propensity score trimmed subpopulation. RESULTS: Among 10,989 patients initiating GLP1RA or thiazolidinediones and 17,088 patients initiating GLP1RA vs sulfonylurea, GLP1RA initiators had fewer exacerbations with an aRD of -0.5% (95% CI -1.1% to 0.1%) and -1.6% (95% CI -2.2% to -1.1%), respectively. In the GLP1RAvsSUcohort where we observed beneficial effect, our iCF analysis identified 5 subgroups with different treatment effects, defined by number of ED visits, number of prescriptions of short-acting beta2-agonsit (SABA), number of prescriptions of inhaled steroid (ICS) and long-acting beta-agonists (LABA) (either combination therapy or concurrent use), and aged 50+. Among these, patients with 2+ ED visits during 12-month baseline period had the largest absolute exacerbation risk reduction, with a decrease of 2.8% for GLP1RA (95% CI: -4.8% to -0.9%). CONCLUSIONS: GLP1RA demonstrated beneficial effect on reducing asthma exacerbation relative to sulfonylureas. Asthma patients with 2+ ED visits (a proxy for disease severity) benefit most from GLP1RA. ED visit frequency, and number of maintenance and reliever inhalers, and age may help individualize prediction of the short-term benefit from GLP1RA on asthma exacerbation.

Personal care product use patterns in association with phthalate and replacement biomarkers across pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Humans are exposed to phthalates, a class of non-persistent chemicals, through multiple products, including personal care and cosmetics. Associations between specific phthalates and product use have been inconsistent. However, determining these connections could provide avenues for exposure reduction. OBJECTIVE: Examine the association between patterns of personal care product use and associations with phthalate and replacement biomarkers. METHODS: In the Human Placenta and Phthalates Study, 303 women were enrolled in early pregnancy and followed for up to 8 visits across gestation. At each visit, women completed a questionnaire about product use in the prior 24 hours and contributed urine samples, subsequently analyzed for 18 phthalate and replacement metabolites. At early, mid-, and late pregnancy, questionnaire responses were condensed and repeated metabolite concentrations were averaged. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to determine groups of women with similar use patterns, and weighted associations between group membership and biomarker concentrations were assessed. RESULTS: LCA sorted women into groups which largely corresponded to: (1) low fragranced product use (16-23% of women); (2) fragranced product and low body wash use (22-26%); 3) fragranced product and low bar soap use (26-51%); and (4) low product use (7-34%). Monoethyl phthalate (MEP) urinary concentrations were 7-10% lower and concentrations of summed di(2-ethylhexyl) terephthalate metabolites were 15-21% lower among women in the "low fragranced product use" group compared to the population mean. Few other consistent associations between group and biomarker concentrations were noted. IMPACT STATEMENT: Personal care products and cosmetics are a known exposure source for phthalates and potentially represent one of the most accessible intervention targets for exposure reduction. However, in this analysis accounting for concurrent use and fragranced status of products, we did not find any use patterns that corresponded to universally lower levels.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Phthalate Exposure and Preterm Birth: A Pooled Study of Sixteen U.S. Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Phthalate exposures are ubiquitous during pregnancy and may contribute to racial and ethnic disparities in preterm birth. OBJECTIVES: We investigated race and ethnicity in the relationship between biomarkers of phthalate exposure and preterm birth by examining: a) how hypothetical reductions in racial and ethnic disparities in phthalate metabolites might reduce the probability of preterm birth; and b) exposure-response models stratified by race and ethnicity. METHODS: We pooled individual-level data on 6,045 pregnancies from 16 U.S. cohorts. We investigated covariate-adjusted differences in nine urinary phthalate metabolite concentrations by race and ethnicity [non-Hispanic White (White, 43%), non-Hispanic Black (Black, 13%), Hispanic/Latina (38%), and Asian/Pacific Islander (3%)]. Using g-computation, we estimated changes in the probability of preterm birth under hypothetical interventions to eliminate disparities in levels of urinary phthalate metabolites by proportionally lowering average concentrations in Black and Hispanic/Latina participants to be approximately equal to the averages in White participants. We also used race and ethnicity-stratified logistic regression to characterize associations between phthalate metabolites and preterm birth. RESULTS: In comparison with concentrations among White participants, adjusted mean phthalate metabolite concentrations were consistently higher among Black and Hispanic/Latina participants by 23%-148% and 4%-94%, respectively. Asian/Pacific Islander participants had metabolite levels that were similar to those of White participants. Hypothetical interventions to reduce disparities in metabolite mixtures were associated with lower probabilities of preterm birth for Black [13% relative reduction; 95% confidence interval (CI): -34%, 8.6%] and Hispanic/Latina (9% relative reduction; 95% CI: -19%, 0.8%) participants. Odds ratios for preterm birth in association with phthalate metabolites demonstrated heterogeneity by race and ethnicity for two individual metabolites (mono-n-butyl and monoisobutyl phthalate), with positive associations that were larger in magnitude observed among Black or Hispanic/Latina participants. CONCLUSIONS: Phthalate metabolite concentrations differed substantially by race and ethnicity. Our results show hypothetical interventions to reduce population-level racial and ethnic disparities in biomarkers of phthalate exposure could potentially reduce the probability of preterm birth. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12831.