Risk of Bacterial Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Hemorrhage, Based on Child-Pugh Class, and Effects of Antibiotics.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antibiotics frequently are overused and are associated with serious adverse events in patients with cirrhosis. However, these drugs are recommended for all patients presenting with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH). We investigated whether patients should be stratified for antibiotic prophylaxis based on Child-Pugh scores, to estimate risks of bacterial infection, rebleeding, and mortality, and whether antibiotics have equal effects on patients of all Child-Pugh classes. We performed a sensitivity analysis using model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores. METHODS: In a retrospective study, we analyzed data from 381 adult patients with cirrhosis and AVH (70% men; mean age, 56 y), admitted from 2000 through 2009 to 2 tertiary care hospitals in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. We excluded patients with bacterial infection on the day of AVH. The association between antibiotic prophylaxis and outcomes was adjusted by liver disease severity and by a propensity score. RESULTS: The patients included in the study had mean MELD scores of 16, and 54% received antibiotic prophylaxis. Overall, antibiotic therapy was associated with lower risks of infection (adjusted odds ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-0.74) and mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.31-1.29). Among patients categorized as Child-Pugh class A given antibiotics, only 2% developed infections and the mortality rate was 0.4%. Among patients categorized as Child-Pugh class B given antibiotics, 6% developed infections, compared with 14% of patients who did not receive antibiotics; antibiotics did not affect mortality. Administration of antibiotics to patients categorized as Child-Pugh class C reduced infections and mortality by approximately 50%, compared with patients who did not receive antibiotics. MELD scores were not as useful as Child-Pugh class in identifying patients at risk for infection. CONCLUSIONS: Based on a retrospective analysis of patients with cirrhosis and AVH, those categorized as Child-Pugh class A had lower rates of bacterial infection and lower mortality rates in the absence of antibiotic prophylaxis than patients categorized as classes B or C. The recommendation for routine antibiotic prophylaxis for this subgroup requires further evaluation.

A MELD-based model to determine risk of mortality among patients with acute variceal bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) have high mortality rates (15%-20%). Previously described models are seldom used to determine prognoses of these patients, partially because they have not been validated externally and because they include subjective variables, such as bleeding during endoscopy and Child-Pugh score, which are evaluated inconsistently. We aimed to improve determination of risk for patients with AVB. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from 178 patients with cirrhosis (Child-Pugh scores of A, B, and C: 15%, 57%, and 28%, respectively) and esophageal AVB who received standard therapy from 2007 through 2010. We tested the performance (discrimination and calibration) of previously described models, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and developed a new MELD calibration to predict the mortality of patients within 6 weeks of presentation with AVB. MELD-based predictions were validated in cohorts of patients from Canada (n = 240) and Spain (n = 221). RESULTS: Among study subjects, the 6-week mortality rate was 16%. MELD was the best model in terms of discrimination; it was recalibrated to predict the 6-week mortality rate with logistic regression (logit, -5.312 + 0.207 • MELD; bootstrapped R(2), 0.3295). MELD values of 19 or greater predicted 20% or greater mortality, whereas MELD scores less than 11 predicted less than 5% mortality. The model performed well for patients from Canada at all risk levels. In the Spanish validation set, in which all patients were treated with banding ligation, MELD predictions were accurate up to the 20% risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a MELD-based model that accurately predicts mortality among patients with AVB, based on objective variables available at admission. This model could be useful to evaluate the efficacy of new therapies and stratify patients in randomized trials.

Asymptomatic bacteriuria is an independent predictor of urinary tract infections in an ambulatory cirrhotic population: a prospective evaluation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Asymptomatic bacteriuria (ASB) is a risk factor for urinary tract infections (UTIs) in many patients without liver disease. It remains unclear whether a diagnosis of ASB in an outpatient with cirrhosis could be utilized to predict the subsequent development of a UTI. We undertook this study to determine the prevalence and incidence of ASB in an outpatient population and its association with UTI. METHODS: We prospectively evaluated 108 adult outpatients with cirrhosis over a 6-month period. Monthly midstream urines (MSU) were performed to detect the occurrence of UTI and ASB (culture of ≥10(8) CFU/L of a urinary pathogen in the absence of UTI symptoms). RESULTS: Of 108 patients enrolled, 99 completed at least one MSU, for a total of 489 MSUs. Total follow-up was 44 person-years. The incidences of ASB and UTI were 181 and 250 per 1000 person-years, respectively. The prevalences of ASB and UTI on the first MSU were 5 and 1%, respectively. In total, 8% of patients developed an episode of ASB and 11% developed a UTI during the study period. Univariate predictors of UTI were female gender, primary biliary cirrhosis, number of previous UTIs and preceding ASB. Preceding ASB was the only independent predictor of UTI on multivariate analysis, with an odds ratio of 6.2 (1.1-34.3), P = 0.04. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhotic patients have higher rates of ASB and UTI than reported in the general population. ASB is an independent predictor of UTI. Further studies are necessary to determine whether routine screening and antimicrobial treatment of ASB is warranted.

The 22/11 risk prediction model: a validated model for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

OBJECTIVES: Clinicians do not have a validated tool for estimating the short-term mortality associated with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). Accurate prognosis assessment is important for risk stratification and for individualizing therapy. We aimed therefore to develop and validate a model for the prediction of 30-day mortality in SBP patients receiving standard medical treatment (antibiotics and if indicated by guidelines, intravenous albumin therapy). METHODS: We retrospectively identified SBP patients treated at a tertiary care center between 2003 and 2011 (training set). Multivariate regression modeling and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized for statistical analysis. An external data set of 109 SBP patients was utilized for validation. RESULTS: Of the 184 patients in the training set, 66% were men with a median age of 55 years, a median MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) score of 20, and a 30-day mortality of 27%. Peripheral blood leukocyte count ≥11×109 cells/l (odds ratio (OR) 2.5; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.2-5.2) and MELD score ≥22 (OR 4.6; 95% CI: 2.3-9.6) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Patients with neither, one, or both variables had 30-day mortality rates of 8%, 32%, and 52%, respectively. The findings in the validation set mirrored the training set. CONCLUSIONS: In cirrhotic patients with SBP receiving standard therapy, MELD score ≥22 and peripheral blood leukocyte count ≥11×109 cells/l are validated independent predictors of mortality. The mortality in a patient without either poor prognostic variable is ≤10% and with both variables is ≥50%. Trials aiming to reduce mortality should target patients in the moderate-risk to high-risk groups.

Bacterial infections in acute variceal hemorrhage despite antibiotics-a multicenter study of predictors and clinical impact.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Current guidelines recommend antibiotic prophylaxis in all patients presenting with cirrhosis and acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH). We aimed to evaluate the characteristics and clinical impact of "early" infections (developing within 14 days) of AVH in a real-world setting. METHODS: We analyzed retrospective data from a cohort of 371 adult patients with cirrhosis and AVH all of whom had received antibiotic prophylaxis (74% men; mean age 56 years), admitted to tertiary care hospitals in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, and Barcelona, Spain. Sensitivity analyses were presented for culture-positive (confirmed) infections. RESULTS: The mean MELD was 16. Fifty-two percent of patients received quinolones, 45% third-generation cephalosporins and 3% other antibiotics. Fourteen percent (51/371) developed an infection within 14 days of AVH. Seventy-five percent of infections were culture positive and occurred at a mean of six days from AVH. When all infections were considered, respiratory infections were the most common (53%) followed by urinary tract infections (17%) and bacteremia (16%). Resistance patterns differed between countries. Outpatient antibiotic prophylaxis (OR 5.4) and intubation (OR 2.6) were independent predictors of bacterial infection. Bacterial infection (OR 2.6) and the MELD (OR 1.2) were independent predictors of six-week mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Early bacterial infections develop in 14% of cirrhotic patients with AVH despite antibiotic prophylaxis, and have a negative impact on six-week mortality. Intubation and outpatient antibiotic prophylaxis are associated with increased risk of early bacterial infections. Patients at risk should be followed closely with prompt infection workup and local antibiogram-based expansion of antibiotic therapy in case of clinical decline.

Third-generation cephalosporin-resistant spontaneous bacterial peritonitis: a single-centre experience and summary of existing studies.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is the most prevalent bacterial infection in patients with cirrhosis. Although studies from Europe have reported significant rates of resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, there are limited SBP-specific data from centres in North America. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prevalence of, predictors for and clinical impact of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant SBP at a Canadian tertiary care centre, and to summarize the data in the context of the existing literature. METHODS: SBP patients treated with both antibiotics and albumin therapy at a Canadian tertiary care hospital between 2003 and 2011 were retrospectively identified. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors of third-generation cephalosporin resistance and mortality. RESULTS: In 192 patients, 25% of infections were nosocomial. Forty per cent (77 of 192) of infections were culture positive; of these, 19% (15 of 77) were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. The prevalence of cephalosporin resistance was 8% with community-acquired infections, 17% with health care-associated infections and 41% with nosocomial acquisition. Nosocomial acquisition of infection was the only predictor of resistance to third-generation cephalosporins (OR 4.0 [95% CI 1.04 to 15.2]). Thirty-day mortality censored for liver transplantation was 27% (50 of 184). In the 77 culture-positive patients, resistance to third-generation cephalosporins (OR 5.3 [1.3 to 22]) and the Model for End-stage Live Disease score (OR 1.14 [1.04 to 1.24]) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Third-generation cephalosporin-resistant SBP is a common diagnosis and has an effect on clinical outcomes. In an attempt to reduce the mortality associated with resistance to empirical therapy, high-risk subgroups should receive broader empirical antibiotic coverage.