Interpreting the pervasive observation of U-shaped Site Frequency Spectra.

The standard neutral model of molecular evolution has traditionally been used as the null model for population genomics. We gathered a collection of 45 genome-wide site frequency spectra from a diverse set of species, most of which display an excess of low and high frequency variants compared to the expectation of the standard neutral model, resulting in U-shaped spectra. We show that multiple merger coalescent models often provide a better fit to these observations than the standard Kingman coalescent. Hence, in many circumstances these under-utilized models may serve as the more appropriate reference for genomic analyses. We further discuss the underlying evolutionary processes that may result in the widespread U-shape of frequency spectra.

From individual-based epidemic models to McKendrick-von Foerster PDEs: a guide to modeling and inferring COVID-19 dynamics.

We present a unifying, tractable approach for studying the spread of viruses causing complex diseases requiring to be modeled using a large number of types (e.g., infective stage, clinical state, risk factor class). We show that recording each infected individual's infection age, i.e., the time elapsed since infection, has three benefits. First, regardless of the number of types, the age distribution of the population can be described by means of a first-order, one-dimensional partial differential equation (PDE) known as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation. The frequency of type i is simply obtained by integrating the probability of being in state i at a given age against the age distribution. This representation induces a simple methodology based on the additional assumption of Poisson sampling to infer and forecast the epidemic. We illustrate this technique using French data from the COVID-19 epidemic. Second, our approach generalizes and simplifies standard compartmental models using high-dimensional systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to account for disease complexity. We show that such models can always be rewritten in our framework, thus, providing a low-dimensional yet equivalent representation of these complex models. Third, beyond the simplicity of the approach, we show that our population model naturally appears as a universal scaling limit of a large class of fully stochastic individual-based epidemic models, where the initial condition of the PDE emerges as the limiting age structure of an exponentially growing population starting from a single individual.

Testing for population decline using maximal linkage disequilibrium blocks.

Only 6% of known species have a conservation status. Methods that assess conservation statuses are often based on individual counts and are thus too laborious to be generalized to all species. Population genomics methods that infer past variations in population size are easy to use but limited to the relatively distant past. Here we propose a population genomics approach that tests for recent population decline and may be used to assess species conservation statuses. More specifically, we study Maximal Recombination Free (MRF) blocks, that are segments of a sequence alignment inherited from a common ancestor without recombination. MRF blocks are relatively longer in small than in large populations. We use the distribution of MRF block lengths rescaled by their mean to test for recent population decline. However, because MRF blocks are difficult to detect, we also consider Maximal Linkage Disequilibrium (MLD) blocks, which are runs of single nucleotide polymorphisms compatible with a single tree. We develop a new method capable of inferring a very recent decline (e.g. with a detection power of 50% for populations whose size was halved to N, 0.05 ×N generations ago) from rescaled MLD block lengths. Our framework could serve as a basis for quantitative tools to assess conservation status in a wide range of species.

50,000 years of Evolutionary History of India: Insights from ~2,700 Whole Genome Sequences.

India has been underrepresented in whole genome sequencing studies. We generated 2,762 high coverage genomes from India-including individuals from most geographic regions, speakers of all major languages, and tribal and caste groups-providing a comprehensive survey of genetic variation in India. With these data, we reconstruct the evolutionary history of India through space and time at fine scales. We show that most Indians derive ancestry from three ancestral groups related to ancient Iranian farmers, Eurasian Steppe pastoralists and South Asian hunter-gatherers. We uncover a common source of Iranian-related ancestry from early Neolithic cultures of Central Asia into the ancestors of Ancestral South Indians (ASI), Ancestral North Indians (ANI), Austro-asiatic-related and East Asian-related groups in India. Following these admixtures, India experienced a major demographic shift towards endogamy, resulting in extensive homozygosity and identity-by-descent sharing among individuals. At deep time scales, Indians derive around 1-2% of their ancestry from gene flow from archaic hominins, Neanderthals and Denisovans. By assembling the surviving fragments of archaic ancestry in modern Indians, we recover ~1.5 Gb (or 50%) of the introgressing Neanderthal and ~0.6 Gb (or 20%) of the introgressing Denisovan genomes, more than any other previous archaic ancestry study. Moreover, Indians have the largest variation in Neanderthal ancestry, as well as the highest amount of population-specific Neanderthal segments among worldwide groups. Finally, we demonstrate that most of the genetic variation in Indians stems from a single major migration out of Africa that occurred around 50,000 years ago, with minimal contribution from earlier migration waves. Together, these analyses provide a detailed view of the population history of India and underscore the value of expanding genomic surveys to diverse groups outside Europe.