RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Local strategies to reduce green-house gases (GHG) imply changes of non-climatic exposure patterns. OBJECTIVE: To assess the health impacts of locally relevant transport-related climate change policies in Basel, Switzerland. METHODS: We modelled change in mortality and morbidity for the year 2020 based on several locally relevant transport scenarios including all decided transport policies up to 2020, additional realistic and hypothesized traffic reductions, as well as ambitious diffusion levels of electric cars. The scenarios were compared to the reference condition in 2010 assumed as status quo. The changes in non-climatic population exposure included ambient air pollution, physical activity, and noise. As secondary outcome, changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were put into perspective with predicted changes of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. RESULTS: Under the scenario that assumed a strict particle emissions standard in diesel cars and all planned transport measures, 3% of premature deaths could be prevented from projected PM2.5 exposure reduction. A traffic reduction scenario assuming more active trips provided only minor added health benefits for any of the changes in exposure considered. A hypothetical strong support to electric vehicles diffusion would have the largest health effectiveness given that the energy production in Basel comes from renewable sources. CONCLUSION: The planned local transport related GHG emission reduction policies in Basel are sensible for mitigating climate change and improving public health. In this context, the most effective policy remains increasing zero-emission vehicles.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/prevenção & controle , Mudança Climática , Efeito Estufa/prevenção & controle , Avaliação do Impacto na Saúde/métodos , Emissões de Veículos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , Automóveis , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Modelos Teóricos , SuíçaRESUMO
A speed limit of 80 km/h with "strict enforcement" has been introduced in 2005 on zones of urban motorways in The Netherlands with the aim to improve air quality of NO(2) and PM(10) along these motorways. Strict enforcement means speed control by camera surveillance over the whole trajectory of 2-4 km combined with licence plate recognition and automatic fining in case of exceeding the speed limit. Traffic data measured in Rotterdam and Amsterdam at the zones without and with speed management showed that traffic dynamics have been significantly reduced as a result of speed management with strict enforcement. Reduction of traffic dynamics results in more free-flowing traffic with relatively less NO(x) and exhaust PM(10) emissions compared to congested traffic, i.e., stop-and-go traffic. The actual effect on NO(x) and PM(10) emissions at these speed management zones was studied in the cities Rotterdam and Amsterdam. The study was performed in two different ways: firstly by measurements and by modelling the contribution to NO(x) and PM(10) concentrations on both sides of the motorways, and secondly by estimating the change in traffic dynamics and the effect on emissions. From the results of both approaches in this study, it was concluded that in our case study in the Netherlands emission reduction by speed management is in the range of 5-30% for NO(x) and 5-25% for PM(10). Actual emission reductions by speed management at a specific motorway mainly depend on the ratio of congested traffic prior and after implementation of speed management. The larger this ratio, the larger is the relative emission reduction. The impact on air quality of 80 km/h for NO(x) and PM(10) is largest on motorways with a high fraction of heavy-duty vehicles.