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Although the particle phase state is an important property, there is scant information on it, especially, for real-world aerosols. To explore the phase state of fine mode aerosols (PM2.5) in two megacities, Seoul and Beijing, we collected PM2.5 filter samples daily from Dec 2020 to Jan 2021. Using optical microscopy combined with the poke-and-flow technique, the phase states of the bulk of PM2.5 as a function of relative humidity (RH) were determined and compared to the ambient RH ranges in the two cities. PM2.5 was found to be liquid to semisolid in Seoul but mostly semisolid to solid in Beijing. The liquid state was dominant on polluted days, while a semisolid state was dominant on clean days in Seoul. These findings can be explained by the aerosol liquid water content related to the chemical compositions of the aerosols at ambient RH; the water content of PM2.5 was much higher in Seoul than in Beijing. Furthermore, the overall phase states of PM2.5 observed in Seoul and Beijing were interrelated with the particle size distribution. The results of this study aid in a better understanding of the fundamental physical properties of aerosols and in examining how these are linked to PM2.5 in polluted urban atmospheres.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Material Particulado , Pequim , Material Particulado/análise , Cidades , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Tamanho da Partícula , Seul , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Estações do Ano , Água , Aerossóis/análise , ChinaRESUMO
Condensable particulate matter (CPM) corresponds to primary particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) obtained through the condensation of gaseous air pollutants caused by temperature drops in the atmosphere. The internal combustion of vehicle engines can produce CPM because of the condensable compounds in the exhaust gas. Conventional CPM measurement methods have been developed for coal-fired power plants with stable emissions through sampling and off-site analyses. They are therefore unsuitable for detecting the rapidly changing vehicle-originated CPM. In addition, the current system for evaluating PM2.5 from vehicles, based on the particle measurement program (PMP) protocol, provides only the emission factors of total PM2.5 (and not CPM separately) at a fixed temperature (â¼25 °C) and dilution ratio (â¼ × 35). This study reports, for the first time, the development of a real-time detection method for vehicle-originated CPM through a thermodenuder (TD) integrated with real-time aerosol instruments. This method was designed to reduce the loss of CPM due to condensation and diffusion while sampling the exhaust gas. It permits the investigation of the effects of dilution gas temperature (5-45 °C) and dilution ratio (up to × 30) on the formation of CPM. During the feasibility test of this method using a diesel vehicle (Euro-4), the real-time total particle number concentrations (PNs) matched well with those obtained by a PMP protocol-based evaluation system. Moreover, this method detected PNs concentrations ten times higher than the detection limit (4 × 106 particles/cm3) of the PMP-based system. The emission factors of the total PM2.5 with a bulk density (1 g/cm3) measured by this method also showed consistency with the results of the PMP protocol. The mass emission factor of CPM determined by deploying the TD was â¼14.57 mg/km (â¼63% contribution to the total PM2.5).
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Material Particulado , Aerossóis/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Carvão Mineral/análise , Monitoramento Ambiental , Gases/análise , Material Particulado/análise , Centrais Elétricas , Emissões de Veículos/análiseRESUMO
Nucleation and growth of aerosol particles from atmospheric vapors constitutes a major source of global cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The fraction of newly formed particles that reaches CCN sizes is highly sensitive to particle growth rates, especially for particle sizes <10 nm, where coagulation losses to larger aerosol particles are greatest. Recent results show that some oxidation products from biogenic volatile organic compounds are major contributors to particle formation and initial growth. However, whether oxidized organics contribute to particle growth over the broad span of tropospheric temperatures remains an open question, and quantitative mass balance for organic growth has yet to be demonstrated at any temperature. Here, in experiments performed under atmospheric conditions in the Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets (CLOUD) chamber at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), we show that rapid growth of organic particles occurs over the range from [Formula: see text]C to [Formula: see text]C. The lower extent of autoxidation at reduced temperatures is compensated by the decreased volatility of all oxidized molecules. This is confirmed by particle-phase composition measurements, showing enhanced uptake of relatively less oxygenated products at cold temperatures. We can reproduce the measured growth rates using an aerosol growth model based entirely on the experimentally measured gas-phase spectra of oxidized organic molecules obtained from two complementary mass spectrometers. We show that the growth rates are sensitive to particle curvature, explaining widespread atmospheric observations that particle growth rates increase in the single-digit-nanometer size range. Our results demonstrate that organic vapors can contribute to particle growth over a wide range of tropospheric temperatures from molecular cluster sizes onward.
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To better understand the role of aromatic hydrocarbons in new-particle formation, we measured the particle-phase abundance and volatility of oxidation products following the reaction of aromatic hydrocarbons with OH radicals. For this we used thermal desorption in an iodide-adduct Time-of-Flight Chemical-Ionization Mass Spectrometer equipped with a Filter Inlet for Gases and AEROsols (FIGAERO-ToF-CIMS). The particle-phase volatility measurements confirm that oxidation products of toluene and naphthalene can contribute to the initial growth of newly formed particles. Toluene-derived (C7) oxidation products have a similar volatility distribution to that of α-pinene-derived (C10) oxidation products, while naphthalene-derived (C10) oxidation products are much less volatile than those from toluene or α-pinene; they are thus stronger contributors to growth. Rapid progression through multiple generations of oxidation is more pronounced in toluene and naphthalene than in α-pinene, resulting in more oxidation but also favoring functional groups with much lower volatility per added oxygen atom, such as hydroxyl and carboxylic groups instead of hydroperoxide groups. Under conditions typical of polluted urban settings, naphthalene may well contribute to nucleation and the growth of the smallest particles, whereas the more abundant alkyl benzenes may overtake naphthalene once the particles have grown beyond the point where the Kelvin effect strongly influences the condensation driving force.
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Hidrocarbonetos Aromáticos , Compostos Orgânicos Voláteis , Aerossóis , Gases , VolatilizaçãoRESUMO
We use a real-time temperature-programmed desorption chemical-ionization mass spectrometer (FIGAERO-CIMS) to measure particle-phase composition and volatility of nucleated particles, studying pure α-pinene oxidation over a wide temperature range (-50 °C to +25 °C) in the CLOUD chamber at CERN. Highly oxygenated organic molecules are much more abundant in particles formed at higher temperatures, shifting the compounds toward higher O/C and lower intrinsic (300 K) volatility. We find that pure biogenic nucleation and growth depends only weakly on temperature. This is because the positive temperature dependence of degree of oxidation (and polarity) and the negative temperature dependence of volatility counteract each other. Unlike prior work that relied on estimated volatility, we directly measure volatility via calibrated temperature-programmed desorption. Our particle-phase measurements are consistent with gas-phase results and indicate that during new-particle formation from α-pinene oxidation, gas-phase chemistry directly determines the properties of materials in the condensed phase. We now have consistency between measured gas-phase product concentrations, product volatility, measured and modeled growth rates, and the particle composition over most temperatures found in the troposphere.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Ozônio , Aerossóis , Monoterpenos Bicíclicos , Monoterpenos , VolatilizaçãoRESUMO
The hygroscopicity of PM2.5 particles plays an important role in PM2.5 haze in Northeast Asian countries by influencing particle growth and chemical composition. New particle formation (NPF) and atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are factors that influence particle hygroscopicity. However, the lack of real-time hygroscopicity measurements has deterred the understanding of their effects on particle hygroscopicity. In this study, two intensive monitoring campaigns were conducted during the summer of 2021 and spring of 2022 using real-time aerosol instruments, including a humidified tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA), in Seosan, Republic of Korea. The hygroscopicity parameter κ was calculated from the real-time HTDMA measurement data (κGf). The diurnal variations in κGf exhibited strong inverse linear correlations with the total concentration of VOCs (CTVOC) during the two campaigns. The higher atmospheric CTVOC in summer increased the growth rate of the particle diameter from 10 to 40 nm (6 nm/h) compared with that in spring (2.7 nm/h), resulting in a faster change in κGf for 40-nm particles in summer than in spring because of the increase in organic matter in the chemical compositions of particles. In addition, NPF events introduced additional tiny fresh particles into the atmosphere, which reduced the κGf of 40-nm particles and increased the intensity of the less hygroscopic peaks (κGf < 0.1) of κ-probability density functions (κ-PDF) in NPF days. However, 100-nm particles exhibited fewer changes in κGf than 40-nm particles, resulting in additional dominant hygroscopic peaks (κ â¼ 0.2) of κ-PDFs in both NPF and non-NPF days. When κGf values measured in Seosan were compared with those in other Northeast Asian countries in the literature, the κ values for 40-nm particles were lower than those (κ > 0.2) measured in Beijing and Guangzhou, but those for 100-nm particles were close to those measured in the two cities.
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Ulaanbaatar (UB), the fast-growing capital of Mongolia, is known for its world's worst level of particulate matter (PM) concentrations in winter. However, current anthropogenic emission inventories over the UB are based on data from more than fifteen years ago, and satellite observations are scarce because UB is in high latitudes. During the winter of 2020-21, the first period of the Fine Particle Research Initiative in East Asia considering the National Differences (FRIEND), several times higher concentrations of PM in UB compared to other urban sites in East Asia were observed but not reproduced with a chemical transport model mainly due to the underestimated anthropogenic emissions. Therefore, we devised a method for sequentially adjusting emissions based on the reactivity of PM precursors using ground observations. We scaled emission rates for the inert species (CO, elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC)) to reproduce their observed ambient concentrations, followed by SO2 to reproduce the concentration of SO42-, which was examined to have the least uncertainty based on the abundance of observed NH3, and finally NO and NH3 for NO3-, and NH4+. This improved estimation is compared to regional inventories for Asia and suggests more than an order of magnitude increase in anthropogenic emissions in UB. Using the improved emission inventory, we were able to successfully reproduce independent observation data on PM2.5 concentrations in UB in December 2021 from the U.S. Embassy. During the campaign period, we found more than 50% of the SO42-, NO3-, and NH4+ increased in UB due to the improvement could travel to Beijing, China (BJ), and about 20% of the SO42- could travel to Noto, Japan (NT), more than 3000 km away. Also, the anthropogenic emissions in UB can effectively increase OC, NO3-, and NH4+ concentrations in BJ when Gobi dust storms occur.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Monitoramento Ambiental , Material Particulado , Estações do Ano , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Mongólia , Material Particulado/análise , Monitoramento Ambiental/métodos , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Efeitos AntropogênicosRESUMO
This study conducted real-time monitoring of size-resolved particle concentrations ranging from 9 nm to 10 µm simultaneously at four sites on the park ground and the roof of a five-story apartment buildings in the upwind and downwind areas of the Olympic Expressway next to apartment complex areas of Seoul, Korea. Using a positive matrix factorization model for source apportionment, eight factors were resolved at each monitoring site: four exhaust emissions of vehicles, one non-exhaust emission of vehicle, two regional sources, and one unknown source. After categorizing monitoring data into three cases by wind conditions, impact and contribution of each vehicle-related source on the local road to the roadside pollution was quantified and characterized by subtracting the urban background concentrations. Throughout the measurement period, the contribution of vehicle-related sources to the particle number concentration at each monitoring site ranged from 61 % to 69 %, while that to the particle mass concentration ranged from 39 % to 87 %. During periods of steady traffic flow and wind blowing from the road to three downwind sites at speeds exceeding >0.5 m/s during working hours, the particle number concentrations at the downwind sites were 2.2-2.5 times higher than the average levels. Among vehicle-related sources, gasoline vehicles with multiple injections or high-emitting diesel vehicles showed the highest contribution to particle number concentrations at all sites. As wind speed increased, the number concentrations of particles from vehicle exhaust and non-exhaust emissions decreased and increased, respectively, probably due to enhanced dilution and transport, respectively. In addition, particle number concentrations showed a parabolic curve-like trend with traffic volumes increasing to approximately 10,000 vehicles/h, and then decreasing for both vehicle exhaust and non-exhaust emissions. These results can be utilized in numerical modeling studies and in establishing traffic-related environmental policies to reduce seasonal and temporal particle exposure near the roadsides.
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Isoprene affects new particle formation rates in environments and experiments also containing monoterpenes. For the most part, isoprene reduces particle formation rates, but the reason is debated. It is proposed that due to its fast reaction with OH, isoprene may compete with larger monoterpenes for oxidants. However, by forming a large amount of peroxy-radicals (RO2), isoprene may also interfere with the formation of the nucleating species compared to a purely monoterpene system. We explore the RO2 cross reactions between monoterpene and isoprene oxidation products using the radical Volatility Basis Set (radical-VBS), a simplified reaction mechanism, comparing with observations from the CLOUD experiment at CERN. We find that isoprene interferes with covalently bound C20 dimers formed in the pure monoterpene system and consequently reduces the yields of the lowest volatility (Ultra Low Volatility Organic Carbon, ULVOC) VBS products. This in turn reduces nucleation rates, while having less of an effect on subsequent growth rates.
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Magnesium oxide (MgO) has been investigated as a wet mineral carbonation adsorbent due to its relatively low adsorption and regeneration temperatures. The carbon dioxide (CO2) capture efficiency can be enhanced by applying external force on the MgO slurry during wet carbonation. In this study, two aerosol-processed MgO nanoparticles were tested with a commercial MgO one to investigate the external force effect on the wet carbonation performance at room temperature. The MgO nano-adsorbents were carbonated and sampled every 2 h up to 12 h through forced and non-forced wet carbonations. Hydrated magnesium carbonates (nesquehonite, artinite and hydromagnesite) were formed with magnesite through both wet carbonations. The analyzed results for the time-dependent chemical compositions and physical shapes of the carbonation products consistently showed the enhancement of wet carbonation by the external force, which was at least 4 h faster than the non-forced carbonation. In addition, the CO2 adsorption was enhanced by the forced carbonation, resulting in a higher amount of CO2 being adsorbed by MgO nanoparticles than the non-forced carbonation, unless the carbonation processes were completed. The adsorbed amount of CO2 was between the maximum theoretical amounts of CO2 adsorbed by nesquehonite and hydromagnesite.
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The use of carbon-fiber-reinforced polymers (CFRPs) for the repair and rehabilitation of reinforced concrete (RC) structures has been receiving a lot of attention. Specifically, the shear strengthening of RC members based on CFRP materials has been treated as an effective and efficient strengthening method. Previous research projects focused on the shear strengthening of RC members with unidirectional CFRP strips. Although the effectiveness of a bidirectional CFRP layout compared to a unidirectional CFRP layout was discussed in several studies, these studies only investigated the issue based on experiments. Morever, the parameters of the bidirectional CFRP layout were not clearly defined. This study investigates the performance of RC beams strengthened by bidirectional CFRP based on numerical models. A numerical model based on finite element analysis is designed. Using the numerical model, the parameters of the horizontal CFRP strips, such as the layouts of horizontal CFRP strips and the number of horizontal CFRP strips, are studied. The results show that the effect of horizontal CFRP strips is maximized if the strips are distributed along the depth. In contrast, the number of horizontal CFRP strips does not significantly affect the shear strength of RC members.
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In urban areas, particulate matter emitted from vehicles directly affects the health of citizens near roads. Thus, in this study, particle size distribution was measured by the horizontal and vertical distances along a highway road with heavy traffic to characterize the dispersion phenomena of particulate matter emitted from vehicles. In addition, the contribution of pollution sources was analyzed using a source-receptor model. A concentration gradient was observed in which the concentration decreased with the increase in the distance from the road when the wind blew from the road to the monitoring locations. The concentration was slightly higher within 50 m of the road when the wind blows parallel to the road, and similar concentrations were found at the other monitoring locations further away from the roads. In particular, the higher the turbulence intensity of the wind, the lower is the concentration gradient coefficient because of the more enhanced mixing and dispersion. A positive matrix factorization (PMF) model with the measured particle size distribution data in the range of 9-300 nm resulted in a contribution of about 70 % (number) and 20 % (mass) to particle concentrations because of six types of vehicles including LPG, two gasoline vehicles (GDI, MPI), and three diesel vehicles with 3rd, 4th, and 5th emission classes. It showed a decrease in the vehicular contribution as the distance from the road increased. Particle number concentrations decreased with increasing altitude up to 30 m above the ground. The results of this study can be useful in deriving generalized gradient equations of particle concentrations exposed by distance and wind direction at the roadside using traffic and meteorological conditions and for establishing environmental policies, such as roadside exposure assessment, in the future. A CAPSULE ABSTRACT: Dispersion of particles emitted from vehicles on a busy highway was characterized by roadside measurements of horizontal and vertical profiles of particle size distributions measured at four locations. The source profiles and contributions were estimated by major sources using a source-receptor model such as PMF.
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Iodine is a reactive trace element in atmospheric chemistry that destroys ozone and nucleates particles. Iodine emissions have tripled since 1950 and are projected to keep increasing with rising O3 surface concentrations. Although iodic acid (HIO3) is widespread and forms particles more efficiently than sulfuric acid, its gas-phase formation mechanism remains unresolved. Here, in CLOUD atmospheric simulation chamber experiments that generate iodine radicals at atmospherically relevant rates, we show that iodooxy hypoiodite, IOIO, is efficiently converted into HIO3 via reactions (R1) IOIO + O3 â IOIO4 and (R2) IOIO4 + H2O â HIO3 + HOI + (1)O2. The laboratory-derived reaction rate coefficients are corroborated by theory and shown to explain field observations of daytime HIO3 in the remote lower free troposphere. The mechanism provides a missing link between iodine sources and particle formation. Because particulate iodate is readily reduced, recycling iodine back into the gas phase, our results suggest a catalytic role of iodine in aerosol formation.
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Iodatos , Iodo , AerossóisRESUMO
Biogenic vapors form new particles in the atmosphere, affecting global climate. The contributions of monoterpenes and isoprene to new particle formation (NPF) have been extensively studied. However, sesquiterpenes have received little attention despite a potentially important role due to their high molecular weight. Via chamber experiments performed under atmospheric conditions, we report biogenic NPF resulting from the oxidation of pure mixtures of ß-caryophyllene, α-pinene, and isoprene, which produces oxygenated compounds over a wide range of volatilities. We find that a class of vapors termed ultralow-volatility organic compounds (ULVOCs) are highly efficient nucleators and quantitatively determine NPF efficiency. When compared with a mixture of isoprene and monoterpene alone, adding only 2% sesquiterpene increases the ULVOC yield and doubles the formation rate. Thus, sesquiterpene emissions need to be included in assessments of global aerosol concentrations in pristine climates where biogenic NPF is expected to be a major source of cloud condensation nuclei.
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The interaction between nitrogen monoxide (NO) and organic peroxy radicals (RO2) greatly impacts the formation of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOM), the key precursors of secondary organic aerosols. It has been thought that HOM production can be significantly suppressed by NO even at low concentrations. Here, we perform dedicated experiments focusing on HOM formation from monoterpenes at low NO concentrations (0 - 82 pptv). We demonstrate that such low NO can enhance HOM production by modulating the RO2 loss and favoring the formation of alkoxy radicals that can continue to autoxidize through isomerization. These insights suggest that HOM yields from typical boreal forest emissions can vary between 2.5%-6.5%, and HOM formation will not be completely inhibited even at high NO concentrations. Our findings challenge the notion that NO monotonically reduces HOM yields by extending the knowledge of RO2-NO interactions to the low-NO regime. This represents a major advance towards an accurate assessment of HOM budgets, especially in low-NO environments, which prevails in the pre-industrial atmosphere, pristine areas, and the upper boundary layer.
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Atmosfera , Óxido Nítrico , Monoterpenos , Oxirredução , AerossóisRESUMO
The reinforced concrete (RC) member's shear strength estimation has been experimentally studied in most cases due to its nonlinear behavior. Many empirical equations have been derived from the experimental data; however, even those adopted in the construction codes do not thoroughly and accurately describe their shear behavior. Theoretically explained equations, on the other hand, are aligned with the experiment; however, they are complicated to use in practice. As shear behavior research is data-driven, the machine learning technique is applicable. Herein, an artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm is trained with 776 experiment results collected from available publications. The raw data is preprocessed by principal component analysis (PCA) before the application of the ANN technique. The predictions of the trained algorithm using ANN with PCA are compared to those of formulae adopted in a few existing building codes. Finally, a parametric study is conducted, and the significance of each variable to the strength of RC members is analyzed.
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Carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRP) have shown considerable potential in the repair and rehabilitation of deficient reinforced concrete (RC) structures. To date, several CFRP strengthening schemes have been studied and employed practically. In particular, strengthening of shear damaged RC members with CFRP materials has received much attention as an effective repair and strengthening approach. Most existing studies on strengthening shear-deficient RC members have used unidirectional CFRP strips. Recent studies on strengthened T-beams demonstrated that a bidirectional CFRP layout was more effective than a unidirectional layout. As such studies are limited, in this study, the feasibility of bidirectional CFRP layouts for the shear strengthening of rectangular RC beams was experimentally evaluated. Bidirectional layout details with CFRP anchors as well as rehabilitation timing were considered and investigated. The test results showed that the members with a bidirectional CFRP layout carried less shear strength capacity than those with unidirectional layouts for the same quantity of CFRP material. Nevertheless, the bidirectional CFRP layout allowed for a uniformly distributed stirrup strain compared to the unidirectional CFRP layout at the same load level, which increased the efficiency of the transverse reinforcement. Additionally, the shear contribution of CFRP material according to the CFRP strengthening timing was verified.
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Aerosol particles negatively affect human health while also having climatic relevance due to, for example, their ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei. Ultrafine particles (diameter D p < 100 nm) typically comprise the largest fraction of the total number concentration, however, their chemical characterization is difficult because of their low mass. Using an extractive electrospray time-of-flight mass spectrometer (EESI-TOF), we characterize the molecular composition of freshly nucleated particles from naphthalene and ß-caryophyllene oxidation products at the CLOUD chamber at CERN. We perform a detailed intercomparison of the organic aerosol chemical composition measured by the EESI-TOF and an iodide adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometer equipped with a filter inlet for gases and aerosols (FIGAERO-I-CIMS). We also use an aerosol growth model based on the condensation of organic vapors to show that the chemical composition measured by the EESI-TOF is consistent with the expected condensed oxidation products. This agreement could be further improved by constraining the EESI-TOF compound-specific sensitivity or considering condensed-phase processes. Our results show that the EESI-TOF can obtain the chemical composition of particles as small as 20 nm in diameter with mass loadings as low as hundreds of ng m-3 in real time. This was until now difficult to achieve, as other online instruments are often limited by size cutoffs, ionization/thermal fragmentation and/or semi-continuous sampling. Using real-time simultaneous gas- and particle-phase data, we discuss the condensation of naphthalene oxidation products on a molecular level.
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Iodic acid (HIO3) is known to form aerosol particles in coastal marine regions, but predicted nucleation and growth rates are lacking. Using the CERN CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) chamber, we find that the nucleation rates of HIO3 particles are rapid, even exceeding sulfuric acid-ammonia rates under similar conditions. We also find that ion-induced nucleation involves IO3 - and the sequential addition of HIO3 and that it proceeds at the kinetic limit below +10°C. In contrast, neutral nucleation involves the repeated sequential addition of iodous acid (HIO2) followed by HIO3, showing that HIO2 plays a key stabilizing role. Freshly formed particles are composed almost entirely of HIO3, which drives rapid particle growth at the kinetic limit. Our measurements indicate that iodine oxoacid particle formation can compete with sulfuric acid in pristine regions of the atmosphere.
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Soundproofing materials are widely used within structural components of multi-dwelling residential buildings to alleviate neighborhood noise problems. One of the critical mechanical properties for the soundproofing materials to ensure its appropriate structural and soundproofing performance is the long-term compressive deformation under the service loading conditions. The test method in the current test specifications only evaluates resilient materials for a limited period (90-day). It then extrapolates the test results using a polynomial function to predict the long-term compressive deformation. However, the extrapolation is universally applied to materials without considering the level of loads; thus, the calculated deformation may not accurately represent the actual compressive deformation of the materials. In this regard, long-term compressive deformation tests were performed on the selected soundproofing resilient materials (i.e., polystyrene, polyethylene, and ethylene-vinyl acetate). Four levels of loads were chosen to apply compressive loads up to 350 to 500 days continuously, and the deformations of the test specimens were periodically monitored. Then, three machine learning algorithms were used to predict long-term compressive deformations. The predictions based on machine learning and ISO 20392 method are compared with experimental test results, and the accuracy of machine learning algorithms and ISO 20392 method are discussed.