Potential impact of climatic factors on malaria in Rwanda between 2012 and 2021: a time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains an important public health problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In Rwanda, where malaria ranks among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity, disease transmission is influenced by climatic factors. However, there is a paucity of studies investigating the link between climate change and malaria dynamics, which hinders the development of effective national malaria response strategies. Addressing this critical gap, this study analyses how climatic factors influence malaria transmission across Rwanda, thereby informing tailored interventions and enhancing disease management frameworks. METHODS: The study analysed the potential impact of temperature and cumulative rainfall on malaria incidence in Rwanda from 2012 to 2021 using meteorological data from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency and malaria case records from the Rwanda Health Management and Information System. The analysis was performed in two stages. First, district-specific generalized linear models with a quasi-Poisson distribution were applied, which were enhanced by distributed lag non-linear models to explore non-linear and lagged effects. Second, random effects multivariate meta-analysis was employed to pool the estimates and to refine them through best linear unbiased predictions. RESULTS: A 1-month lag with specific temperature and rainfall thresholds influenced malaria incidence across Rwanda. Average temperature of 18.5 °C was associated with higher malaria risk, while temperature above 23.9 °C reduced the risk. Rainfall demonstrated a dual effect on malaria risk: conditions of low (below 73 mm per month) and high (above 223 mm per month) precipitation correlated with lower risk, while moderate rainfall (87 to 223 mm per month) correlated with higher risk. Seasonal patterns showed increased malaria risk during the major rainy season, while the short dry season presented lower risk. CONCLUSION: The study underscores the influence of temperature and rainfall on malaria transmission in Rwanda and calls for tailored interventions that are specific to location and season. The findings are crucial for informing policy that enhance preparedness and contribute to malaria elimination efforts. Future research should explore additional ecological and socioeconomic factors and their differential contribution to malaria transmission.

Will Africans take COVID-19 vaccination?

The economic and humanistic impact of COVID-19 pandemic is enormous globally. No definitive treatment exists, hence accelerated development and approval of COVID-19 vaccines, offers a unique opportunity for COVID-19 prevention and control. Vaccine hesitancy may limit the success of vaccine distribution in Africa, therefore we assessed the potentials for coronavirus vaccine hesitancy and its determinants among Africans. An online cross-sectional African-wide survey was administered in Arabic, English, and French languages. Questions on demographics, self-reported health status, vaccine literacy, knowledge and perception on vaccines, past experience, behavior, infection risk, willingness to receive and affordability of the SARS-COV-2 vaccine were asked. Data were subjected to descriptive and inferential statistics. A total of 5,416 individuals completed the survey. Approximately, 94% were residents of 34 African countries while the other Africans live in the Diaspora. Only 63% of all participants surveyed were willing to receive the COVID-19 vaccination as soon as possible and 79% were worried about its side effects. Thirty-nine percent expressed concerns of vaccine-associated infection. The odds of vaccine hesitancy was 0.28 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.30) among those who believed their risk of infection was very high, compared to those who believed otherwise. The odds of vaccine hesitancy was one-fifth (OR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.28) among those who believed their risk of falling sick was very high, compared to those who believed their risk of falling very sick was very low. The OR of vaccine hesitancy was 2.72 (95% CI: 2.24, 3.31) among those who have previously refused a vaccine for themselves or their child compared to counterparts with no self-reported history of vaccine hesitancy. Participants want the vaccines to be mandatory (40%), provided free of charge (78%) and distributed in homes and offices (44%). COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is substantial among Africans based on perceived risk of coronavirus infection and past experiences.