Monkeypox Virus Infection in Humans across 16 Countries - April-June 2022.

BACKGROUND: Before April 2022, monkeypox virus infection in humans was seldom reported outside African regions where it is endemic. Currently, cases are occurring worldwide. Transmission, risk factors, clinical presentation, and outcomes of infection are poorly defined. METHODS: We formed an international collaborative group of clinicians who contributed to an international case series to describe the presentation, clinical course, and outcomes of polymerase-chain-reaction-confirmed monkeypox virus infections. RESULTS: We report 528 infections diagnosed between April 27 and June 24, 2022, at 43 sites in 16 countries. Overall, 98% of the persons with infection were gay or bisexual men, 75% were White, and 41% had human immunodeficiency virus infection; the median age was 38 years. Transmission was suspected to have occurred through sexual activity in 95% of the persons with infection. In this case series, 95% of the persons presented with a rash (with 64% having ≤10 lesions), 73% had anogenital lesions, and 41% had mucosal lesions (with 54 having a single genital lesion). Common systemic features preceding the rash included fever (62%), lethargy (41%), myalgia (31%), and headache (27%); lymphadenopathy was also common (reported in 56%). Concomitant sexually transmitted infections were reported in 109 of 377 persons (29%) who were tested. Among the 23 persons with a clear exposure history, the median incubation period was 7 days (range, 3 to 20). Monkeypox virus DNA was detected in 29 of the 32 persons in whom seminal fluid was analyzed. Antiviral treatment was given to 5% of the persons overall, and 70 (13%) were hospitalized; the reasons for hospitalization were pain management, mostly for severe anorectal pain (21 persons); soft-tissue superinfection (18); pharyngitis limiting oral intake (5); eye lesions (2); acute kidney injury (2); myocarditis (2); and infection-control purposes (13). No deaths were reported. CONCLUSIONS: In this case series, monkeypox manifested with a variety of dermatologic and systemic clinical findings. The simultaneous identification of cases outside areas where monkeypox has traditionally been endemic highlights the need for rapid identification and diagnosis of cases to contain further community spread.

Semiparametric Bayesian inference for optimal dynamic treatment regimes via dynamic marginal structural models.

Considerable statistical work done on dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) is in the frequentist paradigm, but Bayesian methods may have much to offer in this setting as they allow for the appropriate representation and propagation of uncertainty, including at the individual level. In this work, we extend the use of recently developed Bayesian methods for Marginal Structural Models to arrive at inference of DTRs. We do this (i) by linking the observational world with a world in which all patients are randomized to a DTR, thereby allowing for causal inference and then (ii) by maximizing a posterior predictive utility, where the posterior distribution has been obtained from nonparametric prior assumptions on the observational world data-generating process. Our approach relies on Bayesian semiparametric inference, where inference about a finite-dimensional parameter is made all while working within an infinite-dimensional space of distributions. We further study Bayesian inference of DTRs in the double robust setting by using posterior predictive inference and the nonparametric Bayesian bootstrap. The proposed methods allow for uncertainty quantification at the individual level, thereby enabling personalized decision-making. We examine the performance of these methods via simulation and demonstrate their utility by exploring whether to adapt HIV therapy to a measure of patients' liver health, in order to minimize liver scarring.

DAA-mediated HCV cure reduces HIV DNA levels in HCV/HIV coinfected people.

IMPORTANCE: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can control virus replication and prolong the life of people living with HIV (PLWH). However, the virus remains dormant within immune cells in what is called the HIV reservoir. Furthermore, 2.3 million PLWH are also coinfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and are at risk of developing chronic liver disease and cancer. HCV treatment with direct acting antivirals (DAA) can completely cure the infection in more than 95% of treated individuals and improve their long-term health outcomes. In this study, we investigated how HCV treatment and cure affect the HIV reservoir. We demonstrate the beneficial impact of DAA treatment as it reduces the HIV reservoirs in particular in people infected with HCV before HIV. These results support the need for early ART and DAA treatment in HIV/HCV coinfections.

Switch to a raltegravir-based antiretroviral regimen in people with HIV and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: The effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART), particularly integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs), on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in people with HIV remains unclear. We evaluated the effect of switching non-INSTI backbone antiretroviral medications to raltegravir on NAFLD and metabolic parameters. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a single-centre, phase IV, open-label, randomized controlled clinical trial. People living with HIV with NAFLD and undetectable viral load while receiving a non-INSTI were randomized 1:1 to the switch arm (raltegravir 400 mg twice daily) or the control arm (continuing ART regimens not containing INSTI). NAFLD was defined as hepatic steatosis by controlled attenuation parameter ≥238 dB/m in the absence of significant alcohol use and viral hepatitis co-infections. Cytokeratin 18 was used as a biomarker of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Changes over time in outcomes were quantified as standardized mean differences (SMDs), and a generalized linear mixed model was used to compare outcomes between study arms. RESULTS: A total of 31 people with HIV (mean age 54 years, 74% male) were randomized and followed for 24 months. Hepatic steatosis improved between baseline and end of follow-up in both the switch (SMD -43.4 dB/m) and the control arm (-26.6 dB/m); the difference between arms was not significant. At the end of follow-up, aspartate aminotransferase significantly decreased in the switch arm compared with the control arm (SMD -9.4 vs. 5.5 IU/L). No changes in cytokeratin 18, body mass index, or lipids were observed between study arms. DISCUSSION: Switching to a raltegravir-based regimen improved aspartate aminotransferase but seemed to have no effect on NAFLD, body weight, and lipids compared with remaining on any other ART.

Impact of social determinants of health on time to antiretroviral therapy initiation and HIV viral undetectability for migrants enrolled in a multidisciplinary HIV clinic with rapid, free, and onsite B/F/TAF: 'The ASAP study'.

OBJECTIVE: Multidisciplinary care with free, rapid, and on-site bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (B/F/TAF) dispensation may improve health outcomes among migrants living with HIV. However, models for rapid B/F/TAF initiation are not well studied among migrants living with HIV, and an understanding of how social determinants of health (SDH) may affect HIV-related health outcomes for migrants enrolled in such care models is limited. METHODS: Within a 96-week pilot feasibility prospective cohort study at a multidisciplinary HIV clinic, participants received free B/F/TAF rapidly after care linkage. The effects of SDH (i.e., birth region, sexual orientation, living status, education, employment, French proficiency, health coverage, use of a public health facility outside our clinic for free blood tests, and time in Canada) and other covariates (i.e., age, sex) on median time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and HIV viral undetectability from care linkage were calculated via survival analyses. RESULTS: Thirty-five migrants were enrolled in this study. Median time to ART initiation and HIV undetectability was 5 days (range 0-50) and 57 days (range 5-365), respectively. Those who took significantly longer to initiate ART were aged <35 years, identified as heterosexual, had less than university-level education, or were unemployed. No factor was found to significantly affect time to undetectability. CONCLUSION: Despite the provision of free B/F/TAF, several SDH were linked to delays in ART initiation. However, once initiated and engaged, migrants living with HIV reached HIV undetectability efficiently. Findings provide preliminary support for adopting this care model with migrants living with HIV and suggest that SDH should be considered when designing clinical interventions for more equitable outcomes.

Material deprivation is associated with liver stiffness and liver-related outcomes in people with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status (SES) is a driver of health disparities and chronic diseases. People with HIV (PWH) are at risk for chronic liver diseases. We evaluated the association between low SES and hepatic outcomes in PWH. METHODS: We included PWH from a prospective cohort. SES was assessed by the Pampalon material and social deprivation index to classify the cohort into quintiles of deprivation. Multivariable linear regression was used to investigate associations of material and social deprivation with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) as markers of hepatic fibrosis and steatosis, respectively. Incidence of outcomes was evaluated through survival analysis. RESULTS: Among the 804 PWH included, 45% and 72% were living in areas of the highest material and social deprivation, respectively. Materially deprived PWH were more frequently female and of non-white ethnicity and had higher prevalence of metabolic comorbidities. After adjustments, material deprivation correlated with increased LSM (ß = 1.86, 95% CI 0.53-3.17) but not with CAP (ß = 6.47, 95% CI -5.55-18.49). Patients were observed for a median follow-up of 3.8 years. Incidence of liver-related events was higher in most materially deprived compared to most privileged PWH (hazard ratio 3.03, 95% CI 1.03-8.92), while there was no difference in extrahepatic outcomes or all-cause mortality. Social deprivation showed no association with either LSM or clinical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Living in materially deprived neighbourhoods as a proxy for lower SES, is associated with LSM and liver-related events in PWH. Future strategies should explore mechanisms underlying these relationships and whether enhanced material security improves hepatic outcomes.

Patient-reported outcomes and experiences of migrants enrolled in a multidisciplinary HIV clinic with rapid, free, and onsite treatment dispensation: the 'ASAP' study.

BACKGROUND: Scholars recommend providing migrants living with HIV (MLWH) with free treatment, rapidly, once linked to care to optimize their HIV-related experiences and health outcomes. Quantitative evaluations of patient-reported measures for MLWH in such models are necessary to explore the viability of these recommendations. METHODS: Within a 96-week prospective cohort study at a multidisciplinary HIV clinic, participants received bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (B/F/TAF) for free and rapidly following care linkage. Eight patient-reported measures were administered at weeks 4, 24, and 48: (1) mMOS-SS to measure perceived social support; (2) IA-RSS to measure internalized stigma; (3) K6 to measure psychological distress; (4) PROMIS to measure self-efficacy with treatment taking; (5) G-MISS to measure perceived compliance with clinicians' treatment plans; (6) HIVTSQ to measure treatment satisfaction; (7) CARE to measure perceived provider empathy; and (8) PRPCC to measure perceived clinician cultural competence. Linear mixed modelling with bootstrapping was conducted to identify significant differences by sociodemographics and time. RESULTS: Across weeks 4, 24, and 48, results suggest that MLWH enrolled in this study experienced moderate levels of social support; elevated levels of HIV-related stigma; moderate levels of distress; high self-efficacy with daily medication self-management; great compliance with clinicians' treatment plans; high treatment satisfaction; high perceived empathy; and high perceived cultural competence. Experience of social support (i.e., mMOS-SS scores) differed significantly by birth region. Experience of HIV-related stigma (i.e., IA-RSS scores) differed significantly by birth region, age, and language. Experience of distress (i.e., K6 scores) differed significantly by sexual orientation. Experience of treatment satisfaction (i.e., HIVTSQ scores) differed significantly by birth region and age. No significant differences were identified by time for any measure. CONCLUSION: Overall, participants expressed positive experiences around treatment and care, alongside comparably lower perceptions of social support, internalized stigma, and distress, potentially underscoring a need to embed targeted, well-funded, and accessible mental health support within HIV care models.

Monkeypox in Montréal: Epidemiology, Phylogenomics, and Public Health Response to a Large North American Outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Monkeypox, a viral zoonotic disease, is causing a global outbreak outside of endemic areas. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the outbreak of monkeypox in Montréal, the first large outbreak in North America. DESIGN: Epidemiologic and laboratory surveillance data and a phylogenomic analysis were used to describe and place the outbreak in a global context. SETTING: Montréal, Canada. PATIENTS: Probable or confirmed cases of monkeypox. MEASUREMENTS: Epidemiologic, clinical, and demographic data were aggregated. Whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed for a set of outbreak sequences. The public health response and its evolution are described. RESULTS: Up to 18 October 2022, a total of 402 cases of monkeypox were reported mostly among men who have sex with men (MSM), most of which were suspected to be acquired through sexual contact. All monkeypox genomes nested within the B.1 lineage. Montréal Public Health worked closely with the affected communities to control the outbreak, becoming the first jurisdiction to offer 1 dose of the Modified Vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic vaccine as preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to those at risk in early June 2022. Two peaks of cases were seen in early June and July (43 and 44 cases per week, respectively) followed by a decline toward near resolution of the outbreak in October. Reasons for the biphasic peak are not fully elucidated but may represent the tempo of vaccination and/or several factors related to transmission dynamics and case ascertainment. LIMITATIONS: Clinical data are self-reported. Limited divergence among sequences limited genomic epidemiologic conclusions. CONCLUSION: A large outbreak of monkeypox occurred in Montréal, primarily among MSM. Successful control of the outbreak rested on early and sustained engagement with the affected communities and rapid offer of PrEP vaccination to at-risk persons. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Hospital Readmissions Among Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States and Canada, 2005-2018: A Collaboration of Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmission trends for persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) in North America in the context of policy changes, improved antiretroviral therapy (ART), and aging are not well-known. We examined readmissions during 2005-2018 among adult PWH in NA-ACCORD. METHODS: Linear risk regression estimated calendar trends in 30-day readmissions, adjusted for demographics, CD4 count, AIDS history, virologic suppression (<400 copies/mL), and cohort. RESULTS: We examined 20 189 hospitalizations among 8823 PWH (73% cisgender men, 38% White, 38% Black). PWH hospitalized in 2018 versus 2005 had higher median age (54 vs 44 years), CD4 count (469 vs 274 cells/µL), and virologic suppression (83% vs 49%). Unadjusted 30-day readmissions decreased from 20.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.9%-22.3%) in 2005 to 16.3% (95% CI, 14.1%-18.5%) in 2018. Absolute annual trends were -0.34% (95% CI, -.48% to -.19%) in unadjusted and -0.19% (95% CI, -.35% to -.02%) in adjusted analyses. By index hospitalization reason, there were significant adjusted decreases only for cardiovascular and psychiatric hospitalizations. Readmission reason was most frequently in the same diagnostic category as the index hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Readmissions decreased over 2005-2018 but remained higher than the general population's. Significant decreases after adjusting for CD4 count and virologic suppression suggest that factors alongside improved ART contributed to lower readmissions. Efforts are needed to further prevent readmissions in PWH.

Impact of Hepatitis C Virus Cure on Depressive Symptoms in the Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Hepatitis C Virus Coinfected Population in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Depression is common in people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV), with biological and psychosocial mechanisms at play. Direct acting antivirals (DAA) result in high rates of sustained virologic response (SVR), with minimal side-effects. We assessed the impact of SVR on presence of depressive symptoms in the HIV-HCV coinfected population in Canada during the second-generation DAA era (2013-2020). METHODS: We used data from the Canadian CoInfection Cohort (CCC), a multicenter prospective cohort of people with a HIV and HCV coinfection, and its associated sub-study on food security. Because depression screening was performed only in the sub-study, we predicted Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-10 classes in the CCC using a random forest classifier and corrected for misclassification. We included participants who achieved SVR and fit a segmented modified Poisson model using an interrupted time series design, adjusting for time-varying confounders. RESULTS: We included 470 participants; 58% had predicted depressive symptoms at baseline. The median follow-up was 2.4 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.0-4.5.) pre-SVR and 1.4 years (IQR: 0.6-2.5) post-SVR. The pre-SVR trend suggested depressive symptoms changed little over time, with no immediate level change at SVR. However, post-SVR trends showed a reduction of 5% per year (risk ratio: 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI]: .94-.96)) in the prevalence of depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: In the DAA era, predicted depressive symptoms declined over time following SVR. These improvements reflect possible changes in biological pathways and/or better general health. If such improvements in depression symptoms are durable, this provides an additional reason for treatment and early cure of HCV.

CD4/CD8 Ratio Outcome According to the Class of the Third Active Drug in Antiretroviral Therapy Regimens: Results From the Quebec Human Immunodeficiency Virus Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of different therapeutic classes of drugs in antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens on the CD4/CD8 ratio is not well documented in people treated for HIV. The objective of this study was to analyze the long-term effect of exposure to integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) on CD4/CD8 ratio compared with nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or protease inhibitor (PI) among ART-treated persons with HIV (PWH). METHODS: Data from the Quebec HIV Cohort collected from 31 August 2017 were used. Our analysis included all patients in the cohort who received a first or subsequent ART regimen composed of 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and a third active drug of a different class (NNRTI, PI, or INSTI) for at least 16 weeks. Marginal structural Cox models were constructed to estimate the effect of different therapeutic classes on the CD4/CD8 ratio outcome. RESULTS: Among the 3907 eligible patients, 972 (24.9%), 1996 (51.1%), and 939 (24.0%) were exposed to an ART regimen whose third active agent was an NNRTI, PI, or INSTI, respectively. The total follow-up time was 13 640.24 person-years. The weighted hazard ratio for the association between the third active class and CD4/CD8 ratio ≥1 was .56 (95% confidence interval [CI]: .48-.65) for patients exposed to NNRTI + 2 NRTIs and .41 (95% CI: .35-.47) for those exposed to PI + 2 NRTIs, compared with those exposed INSTI + 2 NRTIs. CONCLUSIONS: For people treated for HIV, INSTI-based ART appears to be associated with a higher CD4/CD8 ratio than NNRTI and PI-based ART.

Effect of Adopting the New Race-Free 2021 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Creatinine Equation on Racial Differences in Kidney Disease Progression Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of adopting a race-free estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) creatinine (eGFRcr) equation on racial differences in chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression among people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) is unknown. METHODS: We defined eGFR stages using the original race-adjusted Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) eGFRcr equation and the new race-free CKD-EPI eGFRcr equation. We then estimated 5-year probabilities of transitioning from baseline kidney function to more advanced eGFR stages and examined the association of race (black vs white) with rates of CKD progression using Markov models. RESULTS: With the race-adjusted eGFRcr equation, black participants (n = 31 298) had a lower risk of progressing from eGFR stage 1 to 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], .73-.82), an equal risk of progressing from stage 2 to 3 (1.00; .92-.07) and a 3-fold risk of progressing from stage 3 to 4 or 5 (3.06; 2.60-3.62), compared with white participants (n = 27 542). When we used the race-free eGFRcr equation, 16% of black participants were reclassified into a more severe eGFR stage at baseline. The reclassified black individuals had a higher prevalence of CKD risk factors than black PWH who were not reclassified. With the race-free eGFRcr equation, black participants had a higher risk of disease progression across all eGFR stages than white participants. CONCLUSIONS: The original eGFRcr equation systematically masked a subgroup of black PWH who are at high-risk of CKD progression. The new race-free eGFRcr equation unmasks these individuals and may allow for earlier detection and management of CKD.

A population-based study of reported hepatitis C diagnoses from 1998 to 2018 in immigrants and nonimmigrants in Quebec, Canada.

Immigrants living in low hepatitis C (HCV) prevalence countries bear a disproportionate HCV burden, but there are limited HCV population-based studies focussed on this population. We estimated rates and trends of reported HCV diagnoses over a 20-year period in Quebec, Canada, to investigate subgroups with the highest rates and changes over time. A population-based cohort of all reported HCV diagnoses in Quebec (1998-2018) linked to health administrative and immigration databases. HCV rates, rate ratios (RR) and trends overall and stratified by immigrant status and country of birth were estimated using Poisson regression. Among 38,348 HCV diagnoses, 14% occurred in immigrants, a median of 7.5 years after arrival. The average annual HCV rate/100,000 decreased for immigrants and nonimmigrants, but the risk (RR) among immigrants increased over the study period [35.7 vs. 34.5 (RR = 1.03) and 18.4 vs. 12.7 (1.45) between 1998-2008 and 2009-2018]. Immigrants from middle-income Europe & Central Asia [55.8 (RR = 4.39)], sub-Saharan Africa [51.7 (RR = 4.06)] and South Asia [32.8 (RR = 2.58)] had the highest rates between 2009 and 2018. Annual HCV rates decreased more slowly among immigrants vs. nonimmigrants (-5.9% vs. -8.9%, p < 0.001), resulting in a 2.5-fold (9%-21%) increase in the proportion of HCV diagnoses among immigrants (1998-2018). The slower decline in HCV rates among immigrants over the study period highlights the need for targeted screening for this population, particularly those from sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and middle-income Europe. These data can inform micro-elimination efforts in Canada and other low-HCV-prevalence countries.

Determining reinfection rates by hepatitis C testing interval among key populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Detecting hepatitis C virus (HCV) reinfection among key populations helps prevent ongoing transmission. This systematic review aims to determine the association between different testing intervals during post-SVR follow-up on the detection of HCV reinfection among highest risk populations. METHODS: We searched electronic databases between January 2014 and February 2023 for studies that tested individuals at risk for HCV reinfection at discrete testing intervals and reported HCV reinfection incidence among key populations. Pooled estimates of reinfection incidence were calculated by population and testing frequency using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Forty-one single-armed observational studies (9453 individuals) were included. Thirty-eight studies (8931 individuals) reported HCV reinfection incidence rate and were included in meta-analyses. The overall pooled estimate of HCV reinfection incidence rate was 4.13 per 100 per person-years (py) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.45-4.81). The pooled incidence estimate among people who inject drugs (PWID) was 2.84 per 100 py (95% CI: 2.19-3.50), among men who have sex with men (MSM) 7.37 per 100 py (95% CI: 5.09-9.65) and among people in custodial settings 7.23 per 100 py (95% CI: 2.13-16.59). The pooled incidence estimate for studies reporting a testing interval of ≤6 months (4.26 per 100 py; 95% CI: 2.86-5.65) was higher than studies reporting testing intervals >6 months (5.19 per 100 py; 95% CI: 3.92-6.46). CONCLUSIONS: HCV reinfection incidence was highest in studies of MSM and did not appear to change with retesting interval. Shorter testing intervals are likely to identify more reinfections, help prevent onward transmission where treatment is available and enable progress towards global HCV elimination, but additional comparative studies are required.

Prognostic value of non-invasive scores based on liver stiffness measurement, spleen diameter and platelets in HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: People living with HIV (PLWH) are at high risk for advanced chronic liver disease and related adverse outcomes. We aimed to validate the prognostic value of non-invasive scores based on liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and on markers of portal hypertension (PH), namely platelets and spleen diameter, in PLWH. METHODS: We combined data from eight international cohorts of PLWH with available non-invasive scores, including LSM and the composite biomarkers liver stiffness-spleen size-to-platelet ratio score (LSPS), LSM-to-Platelet ratio (LPR) and PH risk score. Incidence and predictors of all-cause mortality, any liver-related event and classical hepatic decompensation were determined by survival analysis, controlling for competing risks for the latter two. Non-invasive scores were assessed and compared using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). RESULTS: We included 1695 PLWH (66.8% coinfected with hepatitis C virus). During a median follow-up of 4.7 (interquartile range 2.8-7.7) years, the incidence rates of any liver-related event, all-cause mortality and hepatic decompensation were 13.7 per 1000 persons-year (PY) (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.4-16.3), 13.8 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 11.6-16.4) and 9.9 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 8.1-12.2), respectively. The AUROC of LSM was similar to that of the composite biomarkers, ranging between 0.83 and 0.86 for any liver-related event, 0.79-0.85 for all-cause mortality and 0.87-0.88 for classical hepatic decompensation. All individual non-invasive scores remained independent predictors of clinical outcomes in multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Non-invasive scores based on LSM, spleen diameter and platelets predict clinical outcomes in PLWH. Composite biomarkers do not achieve higher prognostic performance compared to LSM alone.

A time-dependent Poisson-Gamma model for recruitment forecasting in multicenter studies.

Forecasting recruitments is a key component of the monitoring phase of multicenter studies. One of the most popular techniques in this field is the Poisson-Gamma recruitment model, a Bayesian technique built on a doubly stochastic Poisson process. This approach is based on the modeling of enrollments as a Poisson process where the recruitment rates are assumed to be constant over time and to follow a common Gamma prior distribution. However, the constant-rate assumption is a restrictive limitation that is rarely appropriate for applications in real studies. In this paper, we illustrate a flexible generalization of this methodology which allows the enrollment rates to vary over time by modeling them through B-splines. We show the suitability of this approach for a wide range of recruitment behaviors in a simulation study and by estimating the recruitment progression of the Canadian Co-infection Cohort.

Association of Race and Ethnicity With Initial Prescription of Antiretroviral Therapy Among People With HIV in the US.

Importance: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is currently the guideline-recommended first-line treatment for HIV. Delayed prescription of INSTI-containing ART may amplify differences and inequities in health outcomes. Objectives: To estimate racial and ethnic differences in the prescription of INSTI-containing ART among adults newly entering HIV care in the US and to examine variation in these differences over time in relation to changes in treatment guidelines. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective observational study of 42 841 adults entering HIV care from October 12, 2007, when the first INSTI was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, to April 30, 2019, at more than 200 clinical sites contributing to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Exposures: Combined race and ethnicity as reported in patient medical records. Main Outcomes and Measures: Probability of initial prescription of ART within 1 month of care entry and probability of being prescribed INSTI-containing ART. Differences among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients were estimated by calendar year and time period in relation to changes in national guidelines on the timing of treatment initiation and recommended initial treatment regimens. Results: Of 41 263 patients with information on race and ethnicity, 19 378 (47%) as non-Hispanic Black, 6798 (16%) identified as Hispanic, and 13 539 (33%) as non-Hispanic White; 36 394 patients (85%) were male, and the median age was 42 years (IQR, 30 to 51). From 2007-2015, when guidelines recommended treatment initiation based on CD4+ cell count, the probability of ART initiation within 1 month of care entry was 45% among White patients, 45% among Black patients (difference, 0% [95% CI, -1% to 1%]), and 51% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 4% to 7%]). From 2016-2019, when guidelines strongly recommended treating all patients regardless of CD4+ cell count, this probability increased to 66% among White patients, 68% among Black patients (difference, 2% [95% CI, -1% to 5%]), and 71% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 1% to 9%]). INSTIs were prescribed to 22% of White patients and only 17% of Black patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -4%]) and 17% of Hispanic patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -3%]) from 2009-2014, when INSTIs were approved as initial therapy but were not yet guideline recommended. Significant differences persisted for Black patients (difference, -6% [95% CI, -8% to -4%]) but not for Hispanic patients (difference, -1% [95% CI, -4% to 2%]) compared with White patients from 2014-2017, when INSTI-containing ART was a guideline-recommended option for initial therapy; differences by race and ethnicity were not statistically significant from 2017-2019, when INSTI-containing ART was the single recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults entering HIV care within a large US research consortium from 2007-2019, the 1-month probability of ART prescription was not significantly different across most races and ethnicities, although Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than White patients to receive INSTI-containing ART in earlier time periods but not after INSTIs became guideline-recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Additional research is needed to understand the underlying racial and ethnic differences and whether the differences in prescribing were associated with clinical outcomes.

Discrimination and Calibration of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in North America.

BACKGROUND: The updated Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 combines general and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-specific biomarkers to generate a continuous score that accurately discriminates risk of mortality in diverse cohorts of persons with HIV (PWH), but a score alone is difficult to interpret. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD), we translate VACS Index 2.0 scores into validated probability estimates of mortality. METHODS: Because complete mortality ascertainment is essential for accurate calibration, we restricted analyses to cohorts with mortality from the National Death Index or equivalent sources. VACS Index 2.0 components were ascertained from October 1999 to April 2018. Mortality was observed up to March 2019. Calibration curves compared predicted (estimated by fitting a gamma model to the score) to observed mortality overall and within subgroups: cohort (VACS/NA-ACCORD subset), sex, age <50 or ≥50 years, race/ethnicity, HIV-1 RNA ≤500 or >500 copies/mL, CD4 count <350 or ≥350 cells/µL, and years 1999-2009 or 2010-2018. Because mortality rates have decreased over time, the final model was limited to 2010-2018. RESULTS: Among 37230 PWH in VACS and 8061 PWH in the NA-ACCORD subset, median age was 53 and 44 years; 3% and 19% were women; and 48% and 39% were black. Discrimination in NA-ACCORD (C-statistic = 0.842 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .830-.854]) was better than in VACS (C-statistic = 0.813 [95% CI, .809-.817]). Predicted and observed mortality largely overlapped in VACS and the NA-ACCORD subset, overall and within subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this validation, VACS Index 2.0 can reliably estimate probability of all-cause mortality, at various follow-up times, among PWH in North America.

Risk of HCC With Hepatitis B Viremia Among HIV/HBV-Coinfected Persons in North America.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Chronic HBV is the predominant cause of HCC worldwide. Although HBV coinfection is common in HIV, the determinants of HCC in HIV/HBV coinfection are poorly characterized. We examined the predictors of HCC in a multicohort study of individuals coinfected with HIV/HBV. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We included persons coinfected with HIV/HBV within 22 cohorts of the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (1995-2016). First occurrence of HCC was verified by medical record review and/or cancer registry. We used multivariable Cox regression to determine adjusted HRs (aHRs [95% CIs]) of factors assessed at cohort entry (age, sex, race, body mass index), ever during observation (heavy alcohol use, HCV), or time-updated (HIV RNA, CD4+ percentage, diabetes mellitus, HBV DNA). Among 8,354 individuals coinfected with HIV/HBV (median age, 43 years; 93% male; 52.4% non-White), 115 HCC cases were diagnosed over 65,392 person-years (incidence rate, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.5-2.1] events/1,000 person-years). Risk factors for HCC included age 40-49 years (aHR, 1.97 [1.22-3.17]), age ≥50 years (aHR, 2.55 [1.49-4.35]), HCV coinfection (aHR, 1.61 [1.07-2.40]), and heavy alcohol use (aHR, 1.52 [1.04-2.23]), while time-updated HIV RNA >500 copies/mL (aHR, 0.90 [0.56-1.43]) and time-updated CD4+ percentage <14% (aHR, 1.03 [0.56-1.90]) were not. The risk of HCC was increased with time-updated HBV DNA >200 IU/mL (aHR, 2.22 [1.42-3.47]) and was higher with each 1.0 log10 IU/mL increase in time-updated HBV DNA (aHR, 1.18 [1.05-1.34]). HBV suppression with HBV-active antiretroviral therapy (ART) for ≥1 year significantly reduced HCC risk (aHR, 0.42 [0.24-0.73]). CONCLUSION: Individuals coinfected with HIV/HBV on ART with detectable HBV viremia remain at risk for HCC. To gain maximal benefit from ART for HCC prevention, sustained HBV suppression is necessary.

Remdesivir for the treatment of patients in hospital with COVID-19 in Canada: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The role of remdesivir in the treatment of patients in hospital with COVID-19 remains ill defined in a global context. The World Health Organization Solidarity randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluated remdesivir in patients across many countries, with Canada enrolling patients using an expanded data collection format in the Canadian Treatments for COVID-19 (CATCO) trial. We report on the Canadian findings, with additional demographics, characteristics and clinical outcomes, to explore the potential for differential effects across different health care systems. METHODS: We performed an open-label, pragmatic RCT in Canadian hospitals, in conjunction with the Solidarity trial. We randomized patients to 10 days of remdesivir (200 mg intravenously [IV] on day 0, followed by 100 mg IV daily), plus standard care, or standard care alone. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included changes in clinical severity, oxygen- and ventilator-free days (at 28 d), incidence of new oxygen or mechanical ventilation use, duration of hospital stay, and adverse event rates. We performed a priori subgroup analyses according to duration of symptoms before enrolment, age, sex and severity of symptoms on presentation. RESULTS: Across 52 Canadian hospitals, we randomized 1282 patients between Aug. 14, 2020, and Apr. 1, 2021, to remdesivir (n = 634) or standard of care (n = 648). Of these, 15 withdrew consent or were still in hospital, for a total sample of 1267 patients. Among patients assigned to receive remdesivir, in-hospital mortality was 18.7%, compared with 22.6% in the standard-of-care arm (relative risk [RR] 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67 to 1.03), and 60-day mortality was 24.8% and 28.2%, respectively (95% CI 0.72 to 1.07). For patients not mechanically ventilated at baseline, the need for mechanical ventilation was 8.0% in those assigned remdesivir, and 15.0% in those receiving standard of care (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.75). Mean oxygen-free and ventilator-free days at day 28 were 15.9 (± standard deviation [SD] 10.5) and 21.4 (± SD 11.3) in those receiving remdesivir and 14.2 (± SD 11) and 19.5 (± SD 12.3) in those receiving standard of care (p = 0.006 and 0.007, respectively). There was no difference in safety events of new dialysis, change in creatinine, or new hepatic dysfunction between the 2 groups. INTERPRETATION: Remdesivir, when compared with standard of care, has a modest but significant effect on outcomes important to patients and health systems, such as the need for mechanical ventilation. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT04330690.