[Effect of influenza epidemics on mortality in Santa Fe, Argentina, during 1992-1999]. / Efecto de las epidemias de influenza sobre la mortalidad en Santa Fe, Argentina, en 1992-1999.

OBJECTIVES: To define the effect of influenza epidemics on mortality and to establish the best criterion for predicting mortality so as to provide a method for advance warning of the severity of an influenza epidemic. METHODS: The study was carried out in La Capital, a department in Santa Fe province, Argentina, during 1992-1999. In order to fulfill the first objective, a retrospective analysis was performed with mortality data for pneumonia and influenza in persons over 65 years of age, using the auto-regressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA). The latter were used to determine the excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics. In order to attain the second objective, a regression analysis was performed so as to study the correlation between weekly morbidity from influenza and monthly mortality from pneumonia or influenza in personas over 65. Morbidity was expressed in terms of three summary measures which were derived from the number of cases of influenza that were reported during the first 35 weeks of the year: the sum total of all cases reported weekly, their standard deviation, and the maximum number of cases in any given week. We included in the analysis the type and subtype of influenza. These four parameters (type and subtype of influenza, along with one of the three summary measures) were compared among themselves in terms of their ability to explain the mortality observed during the first eight months of the year. RESULTS: Epidemics occurred during the winters of 1993, 1995, and 1999 and in the spring of 1997. During those seasons, excess deaths were observed in connection with the circulation of a predominant strain of influenza virus, type A (H3N2). There were no epidemics in the winter months of 1994, 1996, and 1998, despite the circulation of this viral strain. During the winters in which influenza virus strains A (H1N1) and B were in circulation (1992 and 1997, respectively) - both are associated with low mortality figures - no excess deaths were detected. CONCLUSIONS: The number of weekly cases of influenza reported during the peak of the winter season is the best criterion for predicting how much excess mortality can be attributed to the epidemic.

Efecto de las epidemias de influenza sobre la mortalidad en Santa Fe, Argentina, en 1992-1999 / Effect of influenza epidemics on mortality in Santa Fe, Argentina, during 1992-1999

Objetivos. Descubrir el efecto de las epidemias de influenza sobre la mortalidad y determinar el criterio más apropiado para predecir la magnitud de ésta, a fin de brindar un método que alerte precozmente de la gravedad de una epidemia de influenza. Métodos. El estudio se realizó en La Capital, departamento de la provincia de Santa Fe, Argentina, durante el período de 1992­1999. Para lograr el primer objetivo se llevó a cabo un análisis retrospectivo de los datos de mortalidad por neumonía e influenza en personas mayores de 65 años, utilizando el método autorregresivo integrado de promedios móviles (ARIMA, por el inglés auto-regressive integrated moving averages). Con él se determinó el exceso de mortalidad atribuible a las epidemias de influenza. A fin de alcanzar el segundo objetivo, se efectuó un análisis de regresión para estudiar la relación entre la morbilidad semanal por influenza y la mortalidad mensual por neumonía o influenza en personas mayores de 65 años. La morbilidad se expresó mediante tres medidas resumen calculadas a partir del número de casos notificados durante las primeras 35 semanas epidemiológicas del año (ocho primeros meses calendario): la suma total de los casos notificados semanalmente, su desviación estándar y su número en la semana invernal en que hubo más casos. En este análisis se incluyeron el tipo y el subtipo de influenza. Estos cuatro parámetros (el tipo y subtipo de influenza, junto con una de las tres medidas resumen) se compararon entre sí con respecto a su poder para explicar la mortalidad registrada durante los primeros ocho meses del año. Resultados. Se produjeron epidemias en la estación invernal de 1993, 1995, 1999 y en la primavera de 1997, estaciones en las que se identificó un exceso de muertes asociado a la circulación de una cepa predominante del virus de la influenza de tipo A, la H3N2. Este patrón de exceso de mortalidad es típico de cepas de la influenza del tipo A (H3N2). Durante los inviernos de 1994, 1996 y 1998 no se produjeron epidemias a pesar de haber estado en circulación el virus de la influenza de tipo A (H3N2). En las estaciones invernales relacionadas conla circulación de cepas de la influenza de los tipos A (H1N1) (1992) y B (1997), cuyos patrones suelen asociarse a una baja mortalidad, tampoco se detectó un exceso de muertes. Conclusiones. El número de casos de influenza semanales notificados durante el pico de la estación invernal resulta el mejor parámetro para estimar el impacto de la influenza sobre elnúmero de defunciones

Objectives. To define the effect of influenza epidemics on mortality and to establish the best criterion for predicting mortality so as to provide a method for advance warning of the severity of an influenza epidemic. Methods. The study was carried out in La Capital, a department in Santa Fe province, Argentina, during 1992­1999. In order to fulfill the first objective, a retrospective analysis was performed with mortality data for pneumonia and influenza in persons over 65 years of age, using the auto-regressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA). The latter were used to determine the excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics. In order to attain the second objective, a regression analysis was performed so as to study the correlation between weekly morbidity from influenza and monthly mortality from pneumonia or influenza in personas over 65. Morbidity was expressed in terms of three summary measures which were derived from the number of cases of influenza that were reported during the first 35 weeks of the year: the sum total of all cases reported weekly, their standard deviation, and the maximum number of cases in any given week. We included in the analysis the type and subtype of influenza. These four parameters (type and subtype of influenza, along with one of the three summary measures) were compared among themselves in terms of their ability to explain the mortality observed during the first eight months of the year. Results. Epidemics occurred during the winters of 1993, 1995, and 1999 and in the spring of 1997. During those seasons, excess deaths were observed in connection with the circulation of a predominant strain of influenza virus, type A (H3N2). There were no epidemics in the winter months of 1994, 1996, and 1998, despite the circulation of this viral strain. During the winters in which influenza virus strains A (H1N1) and B were in circulation (1992 and 1997, respectively)­both are associated with low mortality figures­no excess deaths were detected. Conclusions. The number of weekly cases of influenza reported during the peak of the winter season is the best criterion for predicting how much excess mortality can be attributed to the epidemic

Influenza virus epidemiological surveillance in Argentina, 1987-1993, with molecular characterization of 1990 and 1993 isolates

This report describes findings from epidemiological surveillance of influenza virus in two cities in Argentina (Mar del Plata and Córdoba) from 1987 to 1993. It includes information on reporting and serologic characterization of isolated influenza viruses. In addition, determination was made of the nucleotide sequences of the HA1 subunits of five type A (subtype H3) viral strains isolated in the epidemics of 1990 and 1993. The incidence of illness, type of viruses isolated, and H gene sequences were similar to what has been reported from other parts of the world during the same period. The H3 strains isolated in the 1990 and 1993 seasons were somewhat removed in their molecular characteristics from the strains the World Health Organization recommended for vaccines for those years, and appeared closer to the strains recommended for vaccination in subsequent seasons

Influenza virus epidemiological surveillance in Argentina, 1987-1993, with molecular characterization of 1990 and 1993 isolates / Vigilancia epidemiológica de los virus de gripe en la Argentina, 1987­1993, y caracterización molecular de los aislados en 1990 y 1993

This report describes findings from epidemiological surveillance of influenza virus in two cities in Argentina (Mar del Plata and Córdoba) from 1987 to 1993. It includes information on reporting and serologic characterization of isolated influenza viruses. In addition, determination was made of the nucleotide sequences of the HA1 subunits of five type A (subtype H3) viral strains isolated in the epidemics of 1990 and 1993. The incidence of illness, type of viruses isolated, and H gene sequences were similar to what has been reported from other parts of the world during the same period. The H3 strains isolated in the 1990 and 1993 seasons were somewhat removed in their molecular characteristics from the strains the World Health Organization recommended for vaccines for those years, and appeared closer to the strains recommended for vaccination in subsequent seasons

En este informe se describen los resultados de la vigilancia epidemiológica de virus de gripe en dos ciudades de la Argentina (Mar del Plata y Córdoba) de 1987 a 1993. Se incluye información acerca de la notificación y la caracterización serológica de los virus aisaldos. Además, se determinaron las secuencias de nucleótidos de las subunidades HA1 de cinco cepas tipo A (subtipo H3) aisladas durante las epidemias de 1990 y 1993. La incidencia de enfermedad, los tipos de virus aislados y las secuencias genéticas H fueron similares a las notificaciones del mismo período en otras partes del mundo. En sus características moleculares, las cepas H3 aisladas en las estaciones de 1990 y 1993 se distinguían un poco de las cepas que la Organización Mundial de la Salud recomendó incluir en las vacunas de esos años y se parecían más a las cepas recomendadas para vacunación en estaciones subsecuentes