Using instrumental variables to correct for bias in real-world cohort studies of the effects of disease-modifying treatment in MS.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the effect of disease-modifying treatment of MS in observational studies is impaired by bias from unmeasured confounders, in particular indication bias. OBJECTIVE: To show how instrumental variables (IVs) reduce bias. METHODS: All patients with relapsing onset of MS 1996-2010, identified by the nationwide Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry, were followed from onset. Exposure was treatment index throughout the first 12 years from onset, defined as a cumulative function of months without and with medium- or high-efficacy treatment, and outcomes were hazard ratios (HRs) per unit treatment index for sustained Expanded Disability Scale Score (EDSS) 4 and 6 adjusted for age at onset and sex, without and with an IV. We used the onset cohort (1996-2000; 2001-2005; 2006-2010) as an IV because treatment index increased across the cohorts. RESULTS: We included 6014 patients. With conventional Cox regression, HRs for EDSS 4 and 6 were 1.15 [95% CI: 1.13-1.18] and 1.17 [1.13-1.20] per unit treatment index. Only with IVs, we confirmed a beneficial effect of treatment with HRs of 0.86 [0.81-0.91] and 0.82 [0.74-0.90]. CONCLUSION: The use of IVs eliminates indication bias and confirms that treatment is effective in delaying disability. IVs could, under some circumstances, be an alternative to marginal structural models.

Torben Fog - A Danish pioneer in a multi-faceted spectrum of multiple sclerosis research.

Torben Fog was committed to multiple sclerosis (MS) research for more than four decades, starting before the defence of his thesis in 1948 and lasting until his death in 1987. His research was multi-facetted, making him one of the great pioneers in the study of essential parts of the pathology, immunology and treatment of MS. He has contributed with meticulous studies of the MS plaques, documenting the perivenous distribution of plaques in the spinal cord. He constructed a scoring system for the disability in MS and used a computer programme to calculate a total neurological deficit. Together with his co-workers, Fog in 1972 was the first to report the association between MS and the human leukocyte antigen system. Fog can be considered as the father of immunomodulatory therapy in MS, treating MS patients with the first transfer factor, and as early as 1980, he was the first to treat MS with intramuscular natural interferon.

Heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories in patients with secondary progressive MS: a latent class analysis from Big MS Data network.

BACKGROUND: Over the decades, several natural history studies on patients with primary (PPMS) or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) were reported from international registries. In PPMS, a consistent heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories was demonstrated. The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of patients with SPMS with similar longitudinal trajectories of disability over time. METHODS: All patients with MS collected within Big MS registries who received an SPMS diagnosis from physicians (cohort 1) or satisfied the Lorscheider criteria (cohort 2) were considered. Longitudinal Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were modelled by a latent class growth analysis (LCGA), using a non-linear function of time from the first EDSS visit in the range 3-4. RESULTS: A total of 3613 patients with SPMS were included in the cohort 1. LCGA detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=1297; 35.9%), a moderate (n=1936; 53.6%) and a severe (n=380; 10.5%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 6 was 12.1, 5.0 and 1.7 years, for the three groups, respectively; the probability to reach EDSS 6 at 8 years was 14.4%, 78.4% and 98.3%, respectively. Similar results were found among 7613 patients satisfying the Lorscheider criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to previous interpretations, patients with SPMS progress at greatly different rates. Our identification of distinct trajectories can guide better patient selection in future phase 3 SPMS clinical trials. Additionally, distinct trajectories could reflect heterogeneous pathological mechanisms of progression.

Quantitative effect of sex on disease activity and disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify sex differences in activity and severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) and how it depends on disease duration and time since clinical onset. METHODS: All Danish citizens with onset of relapsing MS since 1996 who have received disease-modifying therapy have been followed with annual or biannual control visits with mandatory notification of the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Men and women were compared by the inverse probability of being female. Relapse rates and changes in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were analysed with weighted general linear models, and we used weighted Cox regression for HRs between men and women for different EDSS endpoints. RESULTS: We included 3028 men and 6619 women. The weighted female:male relapse rate ratio was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.10 to 1.22) but after age 50 years, the difference disappeared. The annualised increase in EDSS was 0.07 in men (95% CI: 0.05 to 0.08) and 0.05 in women (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.06); p=0.017. With women as reference, the HR for reaching EDSS 4 was 1.34 (95% CI: 1.23 to 1.45; p<0.001), and for reaching EDSS 6 it was 1.43 (95% CI: 1.28 to 1.61; p<0.001). The diagnostic delay did not differ significantly between the sexes. CONCLUSION: Women have more inflammatory disease activity in terms of relapses than men up to the age of menopause indicating that sex hormones may play a role. Men are more subject to the neurodegenerative component of MS than women, particularly after the age of 45 years.

Changes in prognosis of the Danish multiple sclerosis population over time.

BACKGROUND: The course of multiple sclerosis (MS) appears to be milder in recent decades. OBJECTIVE: To investigate how time from onset to disability milestones and how demographic and clinical characteristics have changed through subsequent onset cohorts of patients with MS. METHODS: In the nationwide Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry, we have registered all 13,562 Danish patients with onset of MS or clinically isolated syndrome from 1996 through 2020. For the analyses of prognosis, we used all cases with relapsing onset (N = 11,669). After stratification into 5-year onset cohorts, we computed the hazard ratios for disability endpoints for all cohorts having at least 10 years of follow-up and the oldest 1996-2000 onset cohort as reference. RESULTS: Patients in more recent MS onset cohorts have a shorter diagnostic delay and more of them start disease-modifying treatment within 1 year since diagnosis. The prognosis was better for later onset cohorts. For the 2001-2005 cohort, the hazard ratio for confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 4 was 0.85 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.76-0.95) and for confirmed EDSS 6: 0.76 (95% CI, 0.65-0.88). For the more recent 2006-2010 cohort, the corresponding hazard ratios were 0.70 (95% CI, 0.62-0.79) and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.50-0.71). CONCLUSION: We observed a considerable improvement of the prognosis in recent onset cohorts of relapsing-onset MS.

Early treatment delays long-term disability accrual in RRMS: Results from the BMSD network.

BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of treatment starts for achieving the best control on the long-term disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis (MS) is still to be defined. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the optimal time to start disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) to prevent the long-term disability accumulation in MS, using a pooled dataset from the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data (BMSD) network. METHODS: Multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for the time to first treatment start from disease onset (in quintiles) were used. To mitigate the impact of potential biases, a set of pairwise propensity score (PS)-matched analyses were performed. The first quintile, including patients treated within 1.2 years from onset, was used as reference. RESULTS: A cohort of 11,871 patients (median follow-up after treatment start: 13.2 years) was analyzed. A 3- and 12-month confirmed disability worsening event and irreversible Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 4.0 and 6.0 scores were reached by 7062 (59.5%), 4138 (34.9%), 3209 (31.1%), and 1909 (16.5%) patients, respectively. The risk of reaching all the disability outcomes was significantly lower (p < 0.0004) for the first quintile patients' group. CONCLUSION: Real-world data from the BMSD demonstrate that DMTs should be commenced within 1.2 years from the disease onset to reduce the risk of disability accumulation over the long term.

Exposure to passive smoking during adolescence is associated with an increased risk of developing multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Environmental factors are associated with acquiring multiple sclerosis (MS) particularly in adolescence. OBJECTIVE: To test for association between MS and exposure to passive smoking at the age of 10-19. METHODS: A total of 919 patients from the Danish MS Registry and Biobank and 3419 healthy blood donors who had not smoked before the age of 19 were targeted. We analyzed separately for each sex and for those never-smokers (cohort 1) and active smokers above the age of 19 (cohort 2). All participants completed standardized questionnaires about smoking and lifestyle. We matched cases and controls in the ratio of 1:2 by propensity scores discarding unmatchable individuals and used logistic regression adjusted for all covariates and interactions. RESULTS: After matching, we included 110/213 male cases/controls and 232/377 female case/controls in cohort 1. In cohort 2, the numbers were 160/320 and 417/760, respectively. Among women in cohort 1, the odds ratio (OR) for MS by passive smoking at the age of 10-19 was 1.432 (p = 0.037) but in men it was 1.232 (p = 0.39). Among men in cohort 2, OR was 1.593 (p = 0.022) but among women it was only 1.102 (p = 0.44). CONCLUSION: Among never smokers, female MS cases were more often than female controls reported with passive smoking between the age of 10 and 19, and among smokers above the age of 19, male MS patients were more often than male controls reported with passive smoking.

Multiple sclerosis among first- and second-generation immigrants in Denmark: a population-based cohort study.

Multiple sclerosis is a disease with a highly variable incidence worldwide. While knowledge about multiple sclerosis risk factors has grown over the years, the aetiology of multiple sclerosis has still not been fully established. We examined multiple sclerosis incidence rates among first-generation immigrants in Denmark, a high-incidence country, and their Danish-born children (second-generation immigrants), to evaluate the importance and timing of exposure to environmental factors in the aetiology of multiple sclerosis. By means of the Danish Civil Registration System we identified 9 121 187 individuals living in Denmark between 1968 and 2015, including 1 176 419 first-generation and 184 282 second-generation immigrants. Study participants were followed for multiple sclerosis in the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry from 1968 to 2015. The relative risk (RR) of multiple sclerosis according to immigration status was estimated by means of multiple sclerosis incidence rate ratios obtained in log-linear Poisson regression analysis. Altogether, 16 905 cases of multiple sclerosis were identified in the study cohort, 578 among first-generation and 106 among second-generation immigrants. Multiple sclerosis risk among first-generation immigrants whose parents were born in low, intermediate and high multiple sclerosis risk areas were 21% (RR = 0.21; 95% CI: 0.16-0.28), 43% (RR = 0.43; 95% CI: 0.36-0.50) and 75% (RR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.67-0.83), respectively, of that among ethnic Danes (test for trend P < 0.0001). First-generation immigrants arriving in Denmark before age 15 years had a multiple sclerosis risk higher than that in their country of birth but lower than that in Denmark, reaching on average 69% of the multiple sclerosis risk among ethnic Danes (RR = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.55-0.87). Multiple sclerosis risk among individuals who came to Denmark at a later age remained closer to that of their country of birth, corresponding to 45% of the multiple sclerosis risk among ethnic Danes (RR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.41-0.49). Our study supports the idea that environmental factors exerting their role in childhood or adolescence may be of aetiological relevance in multiple sclerosis.

Infections seem to be more frequent before onset of pediatric multiple sclerosis: A Danish nationwide nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Infections are suspected environmental triggers for multiple sclerosis (MS). The relationship between the timing and cumulative number of childhood infections regarding pediatric MS risk is uninvestigated. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether childhood infections contribute to pediatric MS. METHODS: A nationwide nested case-control study with detailed MS case ascertainment including chart review was undertaken. For each MS case, we selected five control children using density sampling from the entire Danish population, matching controls to children with MS by sex and birthdate. We analyzed data with the cumulative number of childhood infections as exposure and MS as outcome. Hazard ratios (HRs) including 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: We identified 212 children with MS and 1,060 controls. Median age at MS onset was 15.3 years (range: 7.6-17.8 years); 72% were girls. Each infection during the preceding 3 years increased the hazard for MS by 11% (95% CI = 1.01-1.22, p = 0.04); having 5+ infections compared with 0-4 infections in the preceding 3 years doubled the hazard for MS (HR: 2.18; 95% CI = 1.12-4.30, p = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Children with MS appeared to have more infections in the 3 years preceding MS clinical onset; accordingly, immune response to infections may influence MS pathogenesis.

Pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis and other acquired demyelinating syndromes of the central nervous system in Denmark during 1977-2015: A nationwide population-based incidence study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of acquired demyelinating syndromes (ADS) including multiple sclerosis (MS) has never been investigated in a Danish pediatric population. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the nationwide age- and sex-specific incidence of pediatric ADS including MS. METHODS: Data were sourced from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry, providing cases of pediatric MS for 1977-2015, and the National Patient Register, providing cases of ADS during 2008-2015. All medical records were reviewed to validate the register-based diagnoses. RESULTS: We identified 364 cases of pediatric MS occurring during 1977-2015 (incidence rate = 0.79 per 100,000 person-years). MS was exceptionally rare before puberty, but the incidence rose considerably from 9 years in girls and 11 years in boys. The female-to-male ratio was 2.5; the median age at onset was 16 years (range = 7-17 years). The MS incidence rate was relatively stable through the study period. During 2008-2015, we identified 219 ADS cases. The incidence was 2.29 per 100,000 person-years with considerable differences in the age peaks for the separate ADS. CONCLUSION: The incidence rates of MS and other ADS in Denmark were higher than those reported for some other European countries. Referral bias and classification differences may account for this disparity, in particular the age-intervals and the definition of onset.

Implications of the International Paediatric Multiple Sclerosis Study Group consensus criteria for paediatric acute disseminated encephalomyelitis: a nationwide validation study.

AIM: The International Paediatric Multiple Sclerosis Study Group (IPMSSG) has proposed criteria for acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) not evaluated in clinical practice. Our objective was to assess epidemiological implications of the IPMSSG criteria for ADEM in a cohort study using prospectively collected data. METHOD: We identified all diagnosed cases of ADEM in Denmark between 2008 and 2015 from the Danish National Patient Register by International Classification of Diseases 10 codes assigned to acute demyelinating episodes, and we reviewed all medical records to validate ADEM. RESULTS: We found 52 children up to the age of 18 years with a verified clinical diagnosis of ADEM (incidence rate 0.54/100 000 person-years; all had abnormal brain magnetic resonance imaging). Only 18 (35%) fulfilled the IPMSSG criteria regarding encephalopathy and polyfocal neurological deficits. Among all 52 children with ADEM, 33 per cent had clinical sequelae after a median follow-up of 4 years 6 months (range: 10mo-8y 3mo). Surprisingly, none progressed to multiphasic ADEM or multiple sclerosis, but median age at end of follow-up was only 10 years 9 months (range: 2y-24y 3mo). INTERPRETATION: Among 52 children with ADEM, none converted to multiphasic ADEM or multiple sclerosis (median follow-up: 4y 6mo; range: 10mo-8y 3mo). Applying the IPMSSG criteria to all children with a diagnosis of ADEM leaves 65 per cent of the cases without a diagnosis and lowers the incidence rate of paediatric ADEM. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: The incidence of paediatric acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) was 0.54 per 100 000 person-years in children younger than 18 years. Only 35 per cent of children with ADEM fulfilled the International Paediatric Study Group consensus criteria. ADEM in clinical practice was primarily based on magnetic resonance imaging findings. Paediatric neurologists diagnosed ADEM in the absence of encephalopathy. None of the children with ADEM progressed to multiple sclerosis/multiphasic ADEM during follow-up.

Age at Menarche and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis: A Prospective Cohort Study Based on the Danish National Birth Cohort.

Few studies have addressed the possible association between age at menarche and multiple sclerosis (MS), and results are conflicting. We studied this issue in a large prospective cohort study. The study cohort comprised 77,330 women included in the Danish National Birth Cohort (1996-2002). Information on menarcheal age was ascertained at the first interview, which took place in the 16th week of pregnancy. Women were followed for MS from the first interview to December 31, 2011. Associations between age at menarche and risk of MS were evaluated with hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Overall, 226 women developed MS during an average follow-up period of 11.7 years. Age at menarche among women with MS was generally lower than that among women without MS (Wilcoxon rank-sum test; P = 0.002). We observed an inverse association between age at menarche and MS risk. For each 1-year increase in age at menarche, risk of MS was reduced by 13% (hazard ratio = 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 0.96). Early age at menarche appears to be associated with an increased risk of MS. The mechanisms behind this association remain to be established.

Excess mortality among patients with multiple sclerosis in Denmark has dropped significantly over the past six decades: a population based study.

BACKGROUND: Lifetime expectancy in multiple sclerosis (MS) is reduced. Few studies have had sufficient follow-up or sufficient number of patients to assess if survival has improved with time. However, a recent meta-analysis found no time-dependent change in MS excess mortality across studies over recent decades. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether short-term all-cause excess mortality in patients with MS in the total Danish population has changed over the last six decades. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We included all patients with MS recorded in the nationwide Danish MS Registry with definite or probable MS and onset from 1950 through 1999. The Danish Civil Registration System provided date of death for all deceased patients with follow-up in 2015, and Statistics Denmark supplied specific population mortality. We calculated excess number of death per 1000 person-years (EDR) and standardised mortality ratio (SMR). RESULTS: We included 18 847 patients among whom 6102 had died as opposed to 2492 expected deaths. EDR was 10.63 (95% CI 10.19 to 11.09) and a SMR was 2.45 (95% CI 2.39 to 2.51). The 15-year EDR dropped gradually from 11.29 (95% CI 9.95 to 12.73) in the 1950-1959 onset cohort to 2.56 (95% CI 1.98 to 3.18) in the 1990-1999 onset cohort, and SMR dropped from 4.48 (95% CI 4.06 to 4.92) to 1.80 (95% CI 1.62 to 1.99). CONCLUSION: The decline in short-term excess mortality in MS started decades before disease-modifying treatment of MS became available, before use of MRI became widespread, and before the McDonald diagnostic criteria were introduced. A change in the MS cohorts with fewer malignant cases may be a significant contributor.

A comparison of multiple sclerosis clinical disease activity between patients treated with natalizumab and fingolimod.

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab and fingolimod were approved for treatment of active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) in Denmark in 2006 and 2011, respectively. There have been no randomized head-to-head studies comparing the two drugs. OBJECTIVE: To compare the clinical efficacy of natalizumab and fingolimod. METHODS: Data on all Danish RRMS patients who started their first second-line treatment with natalizumab or fingolimod from July 2011 to March 2015 were prospectively recorded in the Danish Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Treatment Register. The two treatment arms were 1:1 propensity score matched by baseline covariates using 'nearest neighbour' method. RESULTS: Propensity score matching left 928 of 1309 RRMS cases, 464 in each treatment group. The on-treatment annualized relapse rate was 0.296 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26-0.34) for natalizumab and 0.307 (95% CI: 0.27-0.35) for fingolimod. The adjusted relapse rate ratio was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.74-1.17; p = 0.53). Mean time to first relapse was 2.55 and 2.56 years, respectively ( p = 0.76). There was no difference in change of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). CONCLUSION: We found no differences in clinical disease activity between natalizumab- and fingolimod-treated RRMS patients in this real-life observational study. However, the lack of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for the propensity score matching may conceal a higher efficacy of natalizumab.

Employment, disability pension and income for children with parental multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the consequences of parental multiple sclerosis (MS) on offspring's socioeconomic circumstances. OBJECTIVE: To investigate employment, disability pension and income in offspring of parents with MS compared with matched reference persons in a nationwide register-based cohort study. METHODS: All Danish-born persons with onset of MS during 1950-1986 were retrieved from the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Their offspring were identified using the Civil Registration System. One random offspring from each sibship was matched by sex and year of birth with eight random reference persons. RESULTS: We included 2456 MS offspring and 19,648 reference persons. At age 30, employment was lower among MS offspring than reference children (odds ratio (OR): 0.89; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.84-0.95; p = 0.0003), and they more often received disability pension (OR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.15-1.50; p < 0.0001) at ages 30 and 40 but not at age 50. Although the mean income was not significantly lower for the MS offspring cohort, most of them attained an annual personal income below 250,000 DKK (Danish krone), that is, ~33,650 EUR (OR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.84-0.99; p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Having had a parent with MS may affect employment and increase the risk of disability pension and low income in adult life.

Self-rated health in women prior to clinical onset of multiple sclerosis: A study within the Danish National Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that onset of multiple sclerosis (MS) is preceded by a clinically silent period of up to 10 years. OBJECTIVES: Examine whether such a period should be associated with poor self-rated health (SRH). METHODS: Information on SRH before pregnancy was ascertained among 80,848 women participating in the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) 1996-2002. Women were followed for MS from enrolment in DNBC in the 16th week of pregnancy until 31 December 2011. Associations between SRH and MS were evaluated by means of hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: During on average 11.7 years of follow-up, 239 women were diagnosed with MS. Overall, neither women with fair (HR = 1.09 (95% CI = 0.83-1.41), n = 113) nor poor pre-pregnancy SRH (HR = 0.94 (95% CI = 0.47-1.87), n = 9) were at an increased risk of MS compared with women reporting very good pre-pregnancy SRH. Supplementary analyses showed no significant differences in MS risk in consecutive periods of follow-up. CONCLUSION: In this first prospective cohort study assessing MS risk as a function of SRH, we found no indication of a long period of poor SRH prior to MS. Our findings based on pregnant women may not necessarily apply to all women.

Genetic and environmental determinants of 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is accumulating supporting a beneficial effect of vitamin D in multiple sclerosis (MS). Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have shown significant associations between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in key genes in the vitamin D metabolism. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between 25(OH)D and six GWAS SNPs and environmental factors in 1497 MS patients. METHODS: Blood samples and lifestyle questionnaires were collected between 2009 and 2012. Genotyping of GC-, CYP2R1- and NADSYN1-SNPs was performed by TaqMan allelic discrimination (Life Technologies). RESULTS: We found significant associations between 25(OH)D and SNPs in GC (rs7041, p = 0.01 and rs2282679, p = 0.03) and CYP2R1 (rs10741657, p =1.8 × 10(-4)). Season of blood sampling (p = 2.8 × 10(-31)), sex (p = 1.9 × 10(-5)), BMI (p = 2.3 × 10(-5)), vitamin supplements (p = 7.0 × 10(-22)), and fish intake (p = 0.02) also had significant effects on 25(OH)D. CONCLUSION: In this cross-sectional study, we found significant effects of environmental factors and SNPs in GC and CYP2R1 on 25(OH)D in MS patients. Since 25(OH)D might have protective effects in MS, and vitamin D supply is a modifiable factor, it may be important to include this in the MS treatment regimen.

The use of valproic acid and multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Animal studies have suggested that drugs inhibiting the enzyme histone deacetylase might have a beneficial effect on multiple sclerosis (MS). Valproic acid (VPA), an anti-epileptic drug, is the only widely used human drug with a histone deacetylase inhibitory effect. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is to examine if VPA use is associated with a reduced risk of MS. METHODS: We conducted a propensity score-matched cohort study in the period 1997-2011 linking nationwide register data on filled VPA prescriptions, MS cases, and several covariates. The VPA users were matched on propensity scores in a 1:4 ratio with non-users of VPA. Incidence rates of MS were compared among VPA users and non-users of VPA using Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: Among 16 028 ever-users of VPA and 54 172 non-users, 18 and 26 cases of MS were identified, respectively. Neither current VPA users nor recent users of VPA, who had ceased VPA treatment within the last year, were at a reduced risk of MS compared with non-users of VPA (HR = 1.30 (95% confidence interval, 0.44-3.80), n = 4, and HR = 1.22 (0.28-5.32), n = 2, respectively). Similarly, in an intention-to-treat analysis, ever-users of VPA were not at reduced risk of MS (HR = 2.41 (1.32-4.43), n = 18). CONCLUSION: In the first human study addressing a possible beneficial effect of VPA use on the risk of MS, we found no support for a protective effect. However, given the wide confidence intervals, only large effects can be ruled out with sufficient certainty.

Major stressful life events in adulthood and risk of multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: It is unclear whether psychological stress is associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). We studied the association between major stressful life events and MS in a nationwide cohort study using death of a child or a spouse or marital dissolution as indicators of severe stress. METHODS: We created two study cohorts based on all Danish men and women born 1950-1992. One cohort consisted of all persons who became parents between 1968 and 2010, and another cohort consisted of all persons who married between 1968 and 2010. Members of both cohorts were followed for MS between 1982 and 2010 using data from the National Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Associations between major stressful life events and risk of MS were evaluated by means of MS incidence rate ratios (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) obtained in Poisson regression analyses. RESULTS: During approximately 30 million person-years of follow-up, bereaved parents experienced no unusual risk of MS compared with parents who did not lose a child (RR=1.12 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.38)). Likewise, neither divorced (RR=0.98 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.06)) nor widowed (RR=0.98 (95% CI 0.71 to 1.32) persons were at any unusual risk of MS compared with married persons of the same sex. CONCLUSIONS: Our national cohort study provides little evidence for a causal association between major stressful life events (as exemplified by divorce or the loss of a child or a spouse) and subsequent MS risk.