Comparison of two propensity score-based methods for balancing covariates: the overlap weighting and fine stratification methods in real-world claims data.

BACKGROUND: Two propensity score (PS) based balancing covariate methods, the overlap weighting method (OW) and the fine stratification method (FS), produce superb covariate balance. OW has been compared with various weighting methods while FS has been compared with the traditional stratification method and various matching methods. However, no study has yet compared OW and FS. In addition, OW has not yet been evaluated in large claims data with low prevalence exposure and with low frequency outcomes, a context in which optimal use of balancing methods is critical. In the study, we aimed to compare OW and FS using real-world data and simulations with low prevalence exposure and with low frequency outcomes. METHODS: We used the Texas State Medicaid claims data on adult beneficiaries with diabetes in 2012 as an empirical example (N = 42,628). Based on its real-world research question, we estimated an average treatment effect of health center vs. non-health center attendance in the total population. We also performed simulations to evaluate their relative performance. To preserve associations between covariates, we used the plasmode approach to simulate outcomes and/or exposures with N = 4,000. We simulated both homogeneous and heterogeneous treatment effects with various outcome risks (1-30% or observed: 27.75%) and/or exposure prevalence (2.5-30% or observed:10.55%). We used a weighted generalized linear model to estimate the exposure effect and the cluster-robust standard error (SE) method to estimate its SE. RESULTS: In the empirical example, we found that OW had smaller standardized mean differences in all covariates (range: OW: 0.0-0.02 vs. FS: 0.22-3.26) and Mahalanobis balance distance (MB) (< 0.001 vs. > 0.049) than FS. In simulations, OW also achieved smaller MB (homogeneity: <0.04 vs. > 0.04; heterogeneity: 0.0-0.11 vs. 0.07-0.29), relative bias (homogeneity: 4.04-56.20 vs. 20-61.63; heterogeneity: 7.85-57.6 vs. 15.0-60.4), square root of mean squared error (homogeneity: 0.332-1.308 vs. 0.385-1.365; heterogeneity: 0.263-0.526 vs 0.313-0.620), and coverage probability (homogeneity: 0.0-80.4% vs. 0.0-69.8%; heterogeneity: 0.0-97.6% vs. 0.0-92.8%), than FS, in most cases. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that OW can yield nearly perfect covariate balance and therefore enhance the accuracy of average treatment effect estimation in the total population.

Effects of essential caregiver policies on COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes.

Federal authorities banned nursing home visitation in the early days of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there was growing concern that physical isolation may have unintended harms on nursing home residents. Thus, nursing homes and policymakers faced a tradeoff between minimizing COVID-19 outbreaks and limiting the unintended harms. Between June 2020 and January 2021, 17 states implemented Essential Caregiver policies (ECPs) allowing nursing home visitation by designated family members or friends under controlled circumstances. Using the Nursing Home COVID-19 Public File and other relevant data, we analyze the effects of ECPs on deaths among nursing home residents. We exploit variation in the existence of ECPs across states and over time, finding that these policies effectively reduce both non-COVID-19 and COVID-19 deaths, resulting in a decrease in total deaths. These effects are larger for states that implemented policies mandatorily or without restrictions, indicating a dose-response relationship. These policies reduce non-COVID-19 deaths in facilities with higher quality or staffing levels, while reducing COVID-19 deaths in facilities with lower quality or staffing levels. Our findings support the use and expansion of ECPs to balance resident safety and the need for social interaction and informal care during future pandemics.

The relationship between Medicaid policy and realized access to home- and community-based services.

Medicaid funding for home- and community-based services (HCBS) has increased substantially in recent decades. Prior research has investigated the effects of this expansion on outcomes for individuals as well as costs to Medicaid, often using state policy as a proxy for access to HCBS or implicitly assuming that more generous policies affect outcomes through access, an assumption that may not hold. In this study, using survey data linked to Medicaid claims, we assess the extent to which common measures of state Medicaid HCBS generosity correspond to increased individual use of HCBS among older adults with potential needs. We find several measures to have strong predictive power, but only with relatively large changes in policy generosity. Our findings imply that increased funding of HCBS is not sufficient to ensure access to services and that researchers should be careful when using state policy generosity as a proxy for access.

Effectiveness of a Bundled Payments for Care Improvement Program for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

BACKGROUND: The Medicare Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) program reimburses 90-day care episodes post-hospitalization. COPD is a leading cause of early readmissions making it a target for value-based payment reform. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the financial impact of a COPD BPCI program. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS, INTERVENTIONS: A single-site retrospective observational study evaluated the impact of an evidence-based transitions of care program on episode costs and readmission rates, comparing patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbations who received versus those who did not receive the intervention. MAIN MEASURES: Mean episode costs and readmissions. KEY RESULTS: Between October 2015 and September 2018, 132 received and 161 did not receive the program, respectively. Mean episode costs were below target for six out of eleven quarters for the intervention group, as opposed to only one out of twelve quarters for the control group. Overall, there were non-significant mean savings of $2551 (95% CI: - $811 to $5795) in episode costs relative to target costs for the intervention group, though results varied by index admission diagnosis-related group (DRG); there were additional costs of $4184 per episode for the least-complicated cohort (DRG 192), but savings of $1897 and $1753 for the most complicated index admissions (DRGs 191 and 190, respectively). A significant mean decrease of 0.24 readmissions per episode was observed in 90-day readmission rates for intervention relative to control. Readmissions and hospital discharges to skilled nursing facilities were factors of higher costs (mean increases of $9098 and $17,095 per episode respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our COPD BPCI program had a non-significant cost-saving effect, although sample size limited study power. The differential impact of the intervention by DRG suggests that targeting interventions to more clinically complex patients could increase the financial impact of the program. Further evaluations are needed to determine if our BPCI program decreased care variation and improved quality of care. PRIMARY SOURCE OF FUNDING: This research was supported by NIH NIA grant #5T35AG029795-12.

Estimating the Impact of Medicaid Expansion and Federal Funding Cuts on FQHC Staffing and Patient Capacity.

Policy Points In the preexpansion period, federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) in Medicaid expansion states were significantly different from those in nonexpansion states. This gap widened as revenues in expansion states continued to grow at a faster rate after the expansion. If Medicaid expansion had occurred nationwide, FQHCs' revenue and capacity could have increased substantially. Over time, Medicaid could play a bigger role as it becomes a more stable funding source to allow for capital investments. Section 330 grants appear to have a larger impact on access to care. Given the varying levels of reliance on Medicaid, investing through federal grants might be more effective and equitable. CONTEXT: The Health Resources and Services Administration's Health Center Program (HCP) plays a critical role as the national ambulatory safety net, delivering services to patients in medically underserved areas, regardless of their ability to pay. As the program has grown, health policy initiatives may have altered access to care for the underserved population. Understanding how federally qualified health centers (FQHCs) have been affected by past policies is important for anticipating the effects of future policies. METHODS: By analyzing a national data set from the Uniform Data System, we examined, using two sets of random effects regressions, the potential impact of alternative policy actions affecting FQHCs. Our primary equation models the number of full-time equivalent staff, of patients served, and of visits provided in the subsequent year as a function of Medicaid revenues, Section 330 grants, and other revenues. Our secondary equation is a difference-in-differences analysis that models Medicaid revenues as a function of the states' status of Medicaid expansion. FINDINGS: The expansion of Medicaid in nonexpansion states could have increased Medicaid revenues by 138%, staffing by 25%, and patients' visits by 24% in 2017. Compared to the impact of a "repeal" of Medicaid expansion, the percentage of reductions in staffing would be similar to those predicted by a 50% cut in Medicaid revenues or in Section 330 grants. On a dollar-for-dollar basis, the effects of one dollar of Section 330 grants were more than double that of one dollar of Medicaid revenue. CONCLUSIONS: Both Medicaid eligibility and Section 330 funding support are important to the HCP, and Section 330 grants are particularly closely related to staffing and the provision of services. States' decisions not to participate in or to repeal Medicaid expansion, to reduce Medicaid payment rates, and federal funding cuts all could have a negative impact on FQHCs, resulting in thousands of low-income patients losing access to primary care.

The Effects of Home Care Provider Mix on the Care Recipient: An International, Systematic Review of Articles from 2000 to 2020.

In this systematic review, we examine the literature from 2000 to 2020 to ascertain whether we can make strong conclusions about the relative benefit of adding informal care or formal care providers to the care mix among individuals receiving care in the home, specifically focusing on care recipient outcomes. We evaluate how informal care and formal care affect (or are associated with) health care use of care recipients, health care costs of care recipients, and health outcomes of care recipients. The literature to date suggests that informal care, either alone or in concert with formal care, delivers improvements in the health and well-being of older adults receiving care. The conclusions one can draw about the effects of formal care are less clear.

Claims-based Frailty Indices: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate claims-based frailty indices (CFIs) used to assess frailty on a population-based level. BACKGROUND: Frailty is a key determinant of patient outcomes, independent of demographics and comorbidities. Measuring frailty in large populations has implications for targeted interventions, public reporting, and risk adjustment. Frailty indices based on administrative data in health insurance claims allow such population-level assessments of frailty. METHODS: We used PubMed to search for studies that: (1) were development or validation studies of a CFI that predicted frailty; and (2) used only diagnosis codes within administrative claims or health services claims. We evaluated the CFIs on 6 axes: databases used to build the CFIs; variables used to designate frailty; methods used to build the CFIs; model performance for predicting frailty; model relationship to clinical outcomes; and model limitations. RESULTS: We included 17 studies. They showed variation in the claims codes used to designate frailty, although themes like limited mobility and neurological and psychiatric impairment were common to most. C-statistics demonstrated an overall strong ability to predict patient frailty and adverse clinical outcomes. All CFIs demonstrated strong associations between frailty and poor outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: While each CFI has unique strengths and limitations, they also all had striking similarities. Some CFIs have been more broadly used and validated than others. The major takeaway from this review is that frailty is a clinically relevant, highly predictive syndrome that should be incorporated into clinical risk prediction when feasible.

Assessing the Relative Contribution of Resident Versus Facility Characteristics Associated With Antipsychotic Medication Receipt Among Nursing Facility Residents.

OBJECTIVE: In 2012 Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) launched a multifaceted initiative aimed at reducing the unnecessary use of antipsychotic medications in nursing facilities due to evidence these medications are associated with little or uncertain benefit and substantial risk. Yet, little is known about whether efforts to reduce antipsychotic medication should be focused on residents with targeted characteristics, or on nursing facility regulation (eg, staffing levels). Our objective was to identify the relative contribution of resident and facility characteristics to potentially inappropriate antipsychotic use. METHODS: We examined 1,156,875 long stay residents in 14,699 US nursing facilities in 2014 and predicted resident antipsychotic use controlling sequentially for resident and facility characteristics and calculated the incremental variation explained. RESULTS: We found significant variability in unadjusted rates of potentially inappropriate antipsychotic use among nursing facilities (mean=18.0%; interquartile range: 11.3%-23.7%; SD: 11.1). Regression results indicated that 93% of the explained variation in antipsychotic use was attributed to resident characteristics and 7% was attributed to facility-level factors. At the facility level, worker hours per resident day was not significantly associated with antipsychotic use. Simulations indicated that applying the effect sizes achieved by the best performing facilities to the existing case mix across all nursing facilities would result in no more than a 1 percentage point change in population-level antipsychotic use. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to reduce antipsychotic use may have greater impact by developing new clinical strategies to address specific diagnoses rather than regulations related to facility-level attributes.

Use of instrumental variables for endogenous treatment at the provider level.

Health economists are often interested in the effects of provider-level attributes (e.g., nonprofit status or quality rating) on patient outcomes, but estimation is subject to selection bias due to correlation with other omitted provider-level attributes that also affect patient outcomes. Recently, researchers have attempted to use patient-level instrumental variables, such as differential distance, to solve this problem of a provider-level endogenous treatment variable in settings where patients are nested within providers. However, to satisfy validity assumptions, an instrumental variable for a provider attribute must be at the provider level or a larger unit of aggregation, not at the patient level. A patient-level instrument cannot predict variation in a provider attribute separately from other, potentially unmeasured, provider attributes. In this paper, we explain this misapplication, review the extent of this problem in recent literature, and offer alternative approaches to avoid this misapplication of patient-level instrumental variables.

What is the marginal benefit of payment-induced family care? Impact on Medicaid spending and health of care recipients.

Research on home-based long-term care has centered almost solely on the costs; there has been very little, if any, attention paid to the relative benefits. This study exploits the randomization built into the Cash and Counseling Demonstration and Evaluation program that directly impacted the likelihood of having family involved in home care delivery. Randomization in the trial is used as an instrumental variable for family involvement in care, resulting in a causal estimate of the effect of changing the combination of home health-care providers on health-care utilization and health outcomes of the beneficiary. We find that some family involvement in home-based care significantly decreases health-care utilization: lower likelihood of emergency room use, Medicaid-financed inpatient days, any Medicaid hospital expenditures, and fewer months with Medicaid-paid inpatient use. We find that individuals who have some family involved in home-based care are less likely to have several adverse health outcomes within the first 9 months of the trial, including lower prevalence of infections, bedsores, or shortness of breath, suggesting that the lower utilization may be due to better health outcomes.

Insights about the economic impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease readmissions post implementation of the hospital readmission reduction program.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) affects over 12 million adults in the United States and is the third leading cause of 30-day readmissions. COPD is costly with almost $50 billion in direct costs annually. Total COPD costs can be up to double the identified direct costs because of comorbid disease and numerous indirect costs such as absenteeism. Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are responsible for up to 70% of COPD-related healthcare costs; hospital readmissions alone account for over $15 billion annually. In this review, we aim to describe insights about the economic impact of COPD readmissions based on articles published over the last 18 months. RECENT FINDINGS: Interventions aimed at reducing readmission, particularly those using interdisciplinary teams with bundled care interventions, were uniformly successful at improving the quality of care provided and demonstrating improved process measures. However, success at reducing readmissions and cost savings based on these interventions varied across the studies. SUMMARY: The literature to date points to factors and conditions that may place patients at higher risk of readmissions and may lead to higher costs. Interventions aimed at reducing readmissions after index admissions for AECOPD have demonstrated variable results. Most interventions did not reflect cost-based analyses.

Malpractice Environment vs Direct Litigation: What Drives Nursing Home Exit?

An ongoing concern about medical malpractice litigation is that it may induce provider exit, potentially affecting consumer welfare. The nursing home sector is subject to substantial litigation activity but remains generally understudied in terms of the effects of litigation, due perhaps to a paucity of readily available data. In this article, we estimate the association between litigation and nursing home exit (closure or change in ownership), separating the impact of malpractice environment from direct litigation. We use 2 main data sources for this study: Westlaw's Adverse Filings database (1997-2005) and Online Survey, Certification and Reporting data sets (1997-2005). We use probit models with state and year fixed effects to examine the relationship between litigation and the probability of nursing home closure or change in ownership with and without adjustment for malpractice environment. We examine the relationship on average and also stratify by profit status, chain membership, and market competition. We find that direct litigation against a nursing home has a nonsignificant effect on the probability of closure or change in ownership within the subsequent 2 years. In contrast, the broader malpractice environment has a significant effect on change in ownership, even for nursing homes that have not been sued, but not on closure. Effects are stronger among for-profit and chain facilities and those in more competitive markets. A high-risk malpractice environment is associated with change of ownership of nursing homes regardless of whether they have been directly sued, indicating that it is too blunt an instrument for weeding out low-quality nursing homes.

Association Between 5-Star Nursing Home Report Card Ratings and Potentially Preventable Hospitalizations.

Nursing homes' publicly reported star ratings increased substantially since Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services's Nursing Home Compare adopted a 5-star rating system. Our objective was to test whether the improvements in nursing home 5-star ratings were correlated with reductions in rates of hospitalization. We hypothesized that increased attention to 5-star star ratings motivated nursing homes to make changes that improved their star ratings but did not affect their hospitalization rate, resulting in a weakened association between ratings and hospitalizations. We used 2007-2010 Medicare hospital claims and nursing home clinical assessment data to compare the correlation between nursing home 5-star ratings and hospitalization rates before versus after 5-star ratings were publicly released. The correlation between the rate of hospitalization and a nursing home's 5-star rating weakened slightly after the ratings became publicly available. This decrease in correlation was concentrated among patients receiving post-acute care, who experienced relatively more hospitalizations from best-rated nursing homes. The improvements in nursing home star ratings after the release of Medicare's 5-star rating system were not accompanied by improvements in a broader measure of outcomes for post-acute care patients. Although this dissociation may be due to better matching of sicker patients to higher-quality nursing homes or superficial improvements by nursing homes to increase their ratings without substantial investments in quality improvement, the 5-star ratings nonetheless became less meaningful as an indicator of nursing home quality for post-acute care patients.

Prevalence of pseudobulbar affect symptoms and clinical correlates in nursing home residents.

OBJECTIVE: Pseudobulbar affect (PBA) is a neurological disorder of emotional expression, characterized by uncontrollable episodes of crying or laughing in patients with certain neurological disorders affecting the brain. The purposes of this study were to estimate the prevalence of PBA in US nursing home residents and examine the relationship between PBA symptoms and other clinical correlates, including the use of psychopharmacological medications. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted between 2013 and 2014 with a convenience sample of residents from nine Michigan nursing homes. Chronic-care residents were included in the "predisposed population" if they had a neurological disorder affecting the brain and no evidence of psychosis, delirium, or disruptive behavior (per chart review). Residents were screened for PBA symptoms by a geropsychologist using the Center for Neurologic Study-Lability Scale (CNS-LS). Additional clinical information was collected using a diagnostic evaluation checklist and the most recent Minimum Data Set 3.0 assessment. RESULTS: Of 811 residents screened, complete data were available for 804, and 412 (51%) met the criteria for the "predisposed population." PBA symptom prevalence, based on having a CNS-LS score ≥13, was 17.5% in the predisposed population and 9.0% among all nursing home residents. Those with PBA symptoms were more likely to have a documented mood disorder and be using a psychopharmacological medication, including antipsychotics, than those without PBA symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Pseudobulbar affect symptoms were present in 17.5% of nursing home residents with neurological conditions, and 9.0% of residents overall. Increasing awareness and improving diagnostic accuracy of PBA may help optimize treatment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Public Reporting and Demand Rationing: Evidence from the Nursing Home Industry.

This paper examines an under-explored unintended consequence of public reporting: the potential for demand rationing. Public reporting, although intended to increase consumer access to high-quality products, may have provided the perverse incentive for high-quality providers facing fixed capacity and administrative pricing to avoid less profitable types of residents. Using data from the nursing home industry before and after the implementation of the public reporting system in 2002, we find that high-quality nursing homes facing capacity constraints reduced admissions of less profitable Medicaid residents while increasing the more profitable Medicare and private-pay admissions, relative to low-quality nursing homes facing no capacity constraints. These effects, although small in magnitude, are consistent with provider rationing of demand on the basis of profitability and underscore the important role of institutional details in designing effective public reporting systems for regulated industries.

The causal effects of home care use on institutional long-term care utilization and expenditures.

Limited evidence exists on whether expanding home care saves money overall or how much institutional long-term care can be reduced. This paper estimates the causal effect of Medicaid-financed home care services on the costs and utilization of institutional long-term care using Medicaid claims data. A unique instrumental variable was applied to address the potential bias caused by omitted variables or reverse effect of institutional care use. We find that the use of Medicaid-financed home care services significantly reduced but only partially offset utilization and Medicaid expenditures on nursing facility services. A $1000 increase in Medicaid home care expenditures avoided 2.75 days in nursing facilities and reduced annual Medicaid nursing facility costs by $351 among people over age 65 when selection bias is addressed. Failure to address selection biases would misestimate the substitution and offset effects.

Family structure and long-term care insurance purchase.

While it has long been assumed that family structure and potential sources of informal care play a large role in the purchase decisions for long-term care insurance (LTCI), current empirical evidence is inconclusive. Our study examines the relationship between family structure and LTCI purchase and addresses several major limitations of the prior literature by using a long panel of data and considering modern family relationships, such as the presence of stepchildren. We find that family structure characteristics from one's own generation, particularly about one's spouse, are associated with purchase, but that few family structure attributes from the younger generation have an influence. Family factors that may indicate future caregiver supply are negatively associated with purchase: having a coresidential child, signaling close proximity, and having a currently working spouse, signaling a healthy and able spouse, that long-term care planning has not occurred yet or that there is less need for asset protection afforded by LTCI. Dynamic factors, such as increasing wealth or turning 65, are associated with higher likelihood of LTCI purchase.

Using time trade-off methods to assess preferences over health care delivery options: a feasibility study.

OBJECTIVES: Time trade-off (TTO) methods are often used for utility assessments of different health states to measure quality of life (QOL). They have not generally been used to assess social preferences with respect to options for health care delivery, although the need for quantifying these preferences is arguably just as important. Policymakers are increasingly faced with decisions about how much to invest in, and how much to incentivize, particular modes of health care delivery, generally with little evidence about user preferences. METHODS: This study draws on long-term care (LTC) delivery modes as an example. Focus groups were conducted to approach this issue both qualitatively and quantitatively. In a qualitative pilot study, two focus groups discussed issues of the LTC decision-making process and preferences among different LTC options. The TTO was then used to assess QOL for each LTC option, conditional on a specific health state, and then quantified user's LTC preferences by differential QOL between the two options. RESULTS: This study found that the TTO-elicited utilities and their differences are consistent with the LTC preferences revealed from focus group discussions. These preferences depend on levels of disability and education. CONCLUSIONS: The modified TTO technique seems a feasible method to quantify preferences over LTC delivery options. These methods may be applicable to various health care alternatives in which better evidence is needed to guide funding policy.