Long COVID in a highly vaccinated but largely unexposed Australian population following the 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave: a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of long COVID among Western Australian adults, a highly vaccinated population whose first major exposure to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was during the 2022 Omicron wave, and to assess its impact on health service use and return to work or study. STUDY DESIGN: Follow-up survey (completed online or by telephone). SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Adult Western Australians surveyed 90 days after positive SARS-CoV-2 test results (polymerase chain reaction or rapid antigen testing) during 16 July - 3 August 2022 who had consented to follow-up contact for research purposes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of respondents with long COVID (ie, reporting new or ongoing symptoms or health problems, 90 days after positive SARS-CoV-2 test result); proportion with long COVID who sought health care for long COVID-related symptoms two to three months after infection; proportion who reported not fully returning to previous work or study because of long COVID-related symptoms. RESULTS: Of the 70 876 adults with reported SARS-CoV-2 infections, 24 024 consented to contact (33.9%); after exclusions, 22 744 people were invited to complete the survey, of whom 11 697 (51.4%) provided complete responses. Our case definition for long COVID was satisfied by 2130 respondents (18.2%). The risk of long COVID was greater for women (v men: adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-1.6) and for people aged 50-69 years (v 18-29 years: aRR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.9) or with pre-existing health conditions (aRR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.4-1.7), as well as for people who had received two or fewer COVID-19 vaccine doses (v four or more: aRR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.2-1.8) or three doses (aRR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5). The symptoms most frequently reported by people with long COVID were fatigue (1504, 70.6%) and concentration difficulties (1267, 59.5%). In the month preceding the survey, 814 people had consulted general practitioners (38.2%) and 34 reported being hospitalised (1.6%) with long COVID. Of 1779 respondents with long COVID who had worked or studied before the infection, 318 reported reducing or discontinuing this activity (17.8%). CONCLUSION: Ninety days after infection with the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant, 18.2% of survey respondents reported symptoms consistent with long COVID, of whom 38.7% (7.1% of all survey respondents) sought health care for related health concerns two to three months after the acute infection.

Participant characteristics and reasons for non-consent to health information linkage for research: experiences from the ATHENA COVID-19 study.

BACKGROUND: The linkage of primary care, hospital and other health registry data is a global goal, and a consent-based approach is often used. Understanding the attitudes of why participants take part is important, yet little is known about reasons for non-participation. The ATHENA COVID-19 feasibility study investigated: 1) health outcomes of people diagnosed with COVID-19 in Queensland, Australia through primary care health data linkage using consent, and 2) created a cohort of patients willing to be re-contacted in future to participate in clinical trials. This report describes the characteristics of participants declining to participate and reasons for non-consent. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from January 1st, 2020, to December 31st, 2020, were invited to consent to having their primary healthcare data extracted from their GP into a Queensland Health database and linked to other data sets for ethically approved research. Patients were also asked to consent to future recontact for participation in clinical trials. Outcome measures were proportions of patients consenting to data extraction, permission to recontact, and reason for consent decline. RESULTS: Nine hundred and ninety-five participants were approached and 842(85%) reached a consent decision. 581(69%), 615(73%) and 629(75%) consented to data extraction, recontact, or both, respectively. Mean (range) age of consenters and non-consenters were 50.6(22-77) and 46.1(22-77) years, respectively. Adjusting for age, gender and remoteness, older participants were more likely to consent than younger (aOR 1.02, 95%CI 1.01 to 1.03). The least socio-economically disadvantaged were more likely to consent than the most disadvantaged (aOR 2.20, 95% 1.33 to 3.64). There was no difference in consent proportions regarding gender or living in more remote regions. The main reasons for non-consent were 'not interested in research' (37%), 'concerns about privacy' (15%), 'not registered with a GP' (8%) and 'too busy/no time' (7%). 'No reason' was given in 20%. CONCLUSION: Younger participants and the more socio-economically deprived are more likely to non-consent to primary care data linkage. Lack of patient interest in research, time required to participate and privacy concerns, were the most common reasons cited for non-consent. Future health care data linkage studies addressing these issues may prove helpful.

Liver and cardiometabolic markers and conditions in a cross-sectional study of three Australian communities living with environmental per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances contamination.

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been associated with higher cholesterol and liver function markers in some studies, but the evidence for specific cardiometabolic conditions has been inconclusive. OBJECTIVES: We quantified the associations of single and combined PFAS with cardiometabolic markers and conditions in a cross-sectional study of three Australian communities with PFAS-contaminated water from the historical use of aqueous film-forming foam in firefighting activities, and three comparison communities. METHODS: Participants gave blood samples for measurement of nine PFAS, four lipids, six liver function markers, and completed a survey on sociodemographic characteristics and eight cardiometabolic conditions. We estimated differences in mean biomarker concentrations per doubling in single PFAS concentrations (linear regression) and per interquartile range increase in the PFAS mixture (Bayesian kernel machine regression). We estimated prevalence ratios of biomarker concentrations outside reference limits and self-reported cardiometabolic conditions (Poisson regression). RESULTS: We recruited 881 adults in exposed communities and 801 in comparison communities. We observed higher mean total cholesterol with higher single and mixture PFAS concentrations in blood serum (e.g., 0.18 mmol/L, 95% credible interval -0.06 to 0.42, higher total cholesterol concentrations with an interquartile range increase in all PFAS concentrations in Williamtown, New South Wales), with varying certainty across communities and PFAS. There was less consistency in direction of associations for liver function markers. Serum perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) concentrations were positively associated with the prevalence of self-reported hypercholesterolemia in one of three communities, but PFAS concentrations were not associated with self-reported type II diabetes, liver disease, or cardiovascular disease. DISCUSSION: Our study is one of few that has simultaneously quantified the associations of blood PFAS concentrations with multiple biomarkers and cardiometabolic conditions in multiple communities. Our findings for total cholesterol were consistent with previous studies; however, substantial uncertainty in our estimates and the cross-sectional design limit causal inference.

Educational composition effect on the sex gap in life expectancy: A research note based on evidence from Australia.

Life expectancy for females has exceeded that of males globally this century. There is considerable within-country variation in life expectancy related to education. Sex gaps in life expectancy can be decomposed into two components: sex differences in education-specific mortality and sex differences in educational composition. We illustrate this using Australian data for 2016, when the sex gap in life expectancy at age 25 was 3.8 years. The sex gap would be as large as 4.5 years if males and females had the same educational composition; however, it is reduced by 0.7 years, given the lower levels of education among women than men. In a hypothetical scenario accounting for recent increases in females' educational achievement (holding the educational composition at all ages constant at that observed at ages 25-39 for both sexes), we estimate a potential increase in the sex gap (to 4.1 years) in favour of females.

The relationship of socioeconomic factors to the use of preventative cardiovascular disease medications: A prospective Australian cohort study.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are highly preventable through appropriate treatment and disproportionally affect socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals. This study quantified the relationship of socioeconomic factors to dispensing and persistent use of lipid- and blood pressure-lowering medication following hospital admission for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke/transient ischaemic attack). Data from 8285 people with such events aged ≥45 years from the Australian 45 and Up Study with linked medication data were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) for combined lipid- and blood pressure-lowering dispensing at three-months following hospital discharge and for 12-month persistent use, in relation to education, income, and level of medication subsidisation. Overall, 56% were dispensed guideline-recommended medications at three months and 37% persistently used them across 12 months. After adjusting for demographic factors, type of CVD and history of CVD hospitalisation, RRs for lowest (no educational qualifications) compared to highest education level (university degree) were 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.22) for medication dispensing and 1.15 (1.02, 1.29) for persistent medication use; 1.14 (1.06, 1.22) and 1.17 (1.04, 1.32) respectively for lowest (<$20,000) versus highest (≥$70,000) household pre-tax income; and 1.25 (1.17, 1.33) and 1.28 (1.15, 1.43) respectively for those receiving highest versus lowest subsidisation. There was little to no evidence of a relationship of income and education to medication use after adjustment for medication subsidisation. While preventive medication use is sub-optimal, subsidisation is substantially associated with increased use and accounts for most of the relationship with socioeconomic position, suggesting subsidy schemes are working in the intended direction.

Burden of cardiovascular diseases in older adults using aged care services.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in older adults using community and residential care services. METHODS: The study population comprised people aged 45+ from the 45 and Up Study (2006-09, n = 266,942) in Australia linked with records for hospital stays, aged care service and deaths for the period 2006-14. Follow-up time for each person was allocated to three categories of service use: no aged care, community care and residential care, with censoring at date of death. We calculated the prevalence at baseline and entry to aged care, and incidence rates for major CVD and six cardiovascular diagnoses, seven cardiovascular interventions (collectively CV interventions), cardiovascular-related intensive care unit stays and cardiovascular death. RESULTS: The prevalence of major CVD at entry into community care and residential care was 41% and 58% respectively. Incidence per 1,000 person-years of all major CVD hospitalisations and CV interventions, respectively, was 182.8 (95% CI: 180.0-185.8) and 37.0 (95% CI: 35.6-38.4) for people using community care, and 280.7 (95% CI: 272.2-289.4) and 11.7 (95% CI: 9.8-13.9) for people using residential care. Similar trends were observed for each of the CVD diagnoses and interventions. Crude incidence rates for cardiovascular deaths per 1,000 person-years were 1.4 (95% CI: 1.3-1.5) in no aged care, 13.3 (95% CI: 12.6-14.1) in community care, and 149.7 (95% CI: 144.4-155.2) in residential care. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate the significant burden of CVD in people using both community-based and residential aged care services and highlights the importance of optimising cardiovascular care for older adults.

Use of health and aged care services in Australia following hospital admission for myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and heart failure (HF) are the leading cause of death amongst the older population worldwide. The aim of this study is to investigate trajectories of use of health and aged care services after hospital admission for MI, stroke or HF among community-dwelling people not previously receiving aged care services. METHODS: The study population comprised people aged 65+ years from the 45 and Up Study with linked records for hospital stays, aged care services and deaths for the period 2006-14. Among those with an index hospital admission for MI, stroke or HF, we developed Sankey plots to describe and visualize sequences and trajectories of service use (none, re-hospitalization, community care, residential care, death) in the 12 months following discharge. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), for commencing community care and entering residential care (and the other outcomes) within 3, 6 and 12 months, compared to a matched group without MI, stroke or HF. RESULTS: Two thousand six hundred thirty-nine, two thousand five hundred and two thousand eight hundred seventy-three people had an index hospitalization for MI, stroke and HF, respectively. Within 3 months of hospital discharge, 16, 32 and 29%, respectively, commenced community care (multivariable-adjusted HRs: 1.26 (95%CI:1.18-1.35), 1.53 (95%CI:1.44-1.64) and 1.39 (95%CI:1.32-1.48)); and 7, 18 and 14%, respectively, entered residential care (HRs: 1.25 (95%CI:1.12-1.41), 2.65 (95%CI:2.42-2.91) and 1.50 (95%CI:1.37-1.65)). Likewise, 26, 15 and 28%, respectively, were rehospitalized within 3 months following discharge (multivariable-adjusted HRs: 4.78 (95%CI:4.31-5.32), 3.26 (95%CI:2.91-3.65) and 4.94 (95%CI:4.47-5.46)). CONCLUSIONS: Older people hospitalized for major CVD may be vulnerable to transition-related risks and have poor health trajectories, thus emphasizing the value of preventing such events and care strategies targeted towards this at-risk group.

Education-related variation in coronary procedure rates and the contribution of private health care in Australia: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary Australian evidence on socioeconomic variation in secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) care, a possible contributor to inequalities in cardiovascular disease outcomes, is lacking. This study examined the relationship between education, an individual-level indicator of socioeconomic position, and receipt of angiography and revascularisation procedures following incident hospitalisation for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or angina, and the role of private care in this relationship. METHODS: Participants aged ≥45 from the New South Wales population-based 45 and Up Study with no history of prior ischaemic heart disease hospitalised for AMI or angina were followed for receipt of angiography or revascularisation within 30 days of hospital admission, ascertained through linked hospital records. Education attainment, measured on baseline survey, was categorised as low (no school certificate/qualifications), intermediate (school certificate/trade/apprenticeship/diploma) and high (university degree). Cox regression estimated the association (hazard ratios [HRs]) between education and coronary procedure receipt, adjusting for demographic and health-related factors, and testing for linear trend. Private health insurance was investigated as a mediating variable. RESULTS: Among 4454 patients with AMI, 68.3% received angiography within 30 days of admission (crude rate: 25.8/person-year) and 48.8% received revascularisation (rate: 11.7/person-year); corresponding figures among 4348 angina patients were 59.7% (rate: 17.4/person-year) and 30.8% (rate: 5.3/person-year). Procedure rates decreased with decreasing levels of education. Comparing low to high education, angiography rates were 29% lower among AMI patients (adjusted HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56-0.90) and 40% lower among angina patients (0.60, 0.47-0.76). Patterns were similar for revascularisation among those with angina (0.78, 0.61-0.99) but not AMI (0.93, 0.69-1.25). After adjustment for private health insurance status, the HRs were attenuated and there was little evidence of an association between education and angiography among those admitted for AMI. CONCLUSIONS: There is a socioeconomic gradient in coronary procedures with the most disadvantaged patients being less likely to receive angiography following hospital admission for AMI or angina, and revascularisation procedures for angina. Unequal access to private health care contributes to these differences. The extent to which the remaining variation is clinically appropriate, or whether angiography is being underused among people with low socioeconomic position or overused among those with higher socioeconomic position, is unclear.

Tobacco smoking and risk of 36 cardiovascular disease subtypes: fatal and non-fatal outcomes in a large prospective Australian study.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Evidence on the relation of smoking to different subtypes of CVD, across fatal and non-fatal outcomes, is limited. METHODS: A prospective study of 188,167 CVD- and cancer-free individuals aged ≥ 45 years from the Australian general population joining the 45 and Up Study from 2006 to 2009, with linked questionnaire, hospitalisation and death data up to the end of 2015. Hazard ratios (HRs) for hospitalisation with or mortality from CVD among current and past versus never smokers were estimated, including according to intensity and recency of smoking, using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, urban/rural residence, alcohol consumption, income and education. Population-attributable fractions were estimated. RESULTS: During a mean 7.2 years follow-up (1.35 million person-years), 27,511 (crude rate 20.4/1000 person-years) incident fatal and non-fatal major CVD events occurred, including 4548 (3.2) acute myocardial infarction (AMI), 3991 (2.8) cerebrovascular disease, 3874 (2.7) heart failure and 2311 (1.6) peripheral arterial disease (PAD) events. At baseline, 8% of participants were current and 34% were past smokers. Of the 36 most common specific CVD subtypes, event rates for 29 were increased significantly in current smokers. Adjusted HRs in current versus never smokers were as follows: 1.63 (95%CI 1.56-1.71) for any major CVD, 2.45 (2.22-2.70) for AMI, 2.16 (1.93-2.42) for cerebrovascular disease, 2.23 (1.96-2.53) for heart failure, 5.06 (4.47-5.74) for PAD, 1.50 (1.24-1.80) for paroxysmal tachycardia, 1.31 (1.20-1.44) for atrial fibrillation/flutter, 1.41 (1.17-1.70) for pulmonary embolism, 2.79 (2.04-3.80) for AMI mortality, 2.26 (1.65-3.10) for cerebrovascular disease mortality and 2.75 (2.37-3.19) for total CVD mortality. CVD risks were elevated at almost all levels of current smoking intensity examined and increased with smoking intensity, with HRs for total CVD mortality in current versus never smokers of 1.92 (1.11-3.32) and 4.90 (3.79-6.34) for 4-6 and ≥ 25 cigarettes/day, respectively. Risks diminished with quitting, with excess risks largely avoided by quitting before age 45. Over one third of CVD deaths and one quarter of acute coronary syndrome hospitalisations in Australia aged < 65 can be attributed to smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Current smoking increases the risk of virtually all CVD subtypes, at least doubling the risk of many, including AMI, cerebrovascular disease and heart failure. Paroxysmal tachycardia is a newly identified smoking-related risk. Where comparisons are possible, smoking-associated relative risks for fatal and non-fatal outcomes are similar. Quitting reduces the risk substantially. In an established smoking epidemic, with declining and low current smoking prevalence, smoking accounts for a substantial proportion of premature CVD events.

A Prospective Study of Health Conditions Related to Alcohol Consumption Cessation Among 97,852 Drinkers Aged 45 and Over in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that people who develop serious health conditions are likely to cease drinking alcohol (sometimes known as "sick-quitters"). We quantified the likelihood of quitting drinking in relation to the onset of a variety of health conditions. METHODS: Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of ceasing alcohol consumption after diagnosis of 28 health conditions and 4 general indicators of health were derived from logistic regression among 97,852 drinkers aged ≥ 45 years between baseline (2006 to 2009) and median 5.3 years of follow-up in the New South Wales 45 and Up Study. Incident health conditions at follow-up were self-reported. RESULTS: At follow-up, 9.6% (n = 9,438) of drinkers had ceased drinking. Drinking cessation was significantly associated with 24 of 32 health conditions examined: 15.4% of participants with newly diagnosed diabetes quit drinking (OR for quitting vs. continuing 1.77, 95% CI: 1.60 to 1.96), 16.4% with Parkinson's disease (1.71, 1.35 to 2.17), 17.8% with poor memory (1.68, 1.43 to 1.97), 19.2% with hip fracture (1.64, 1.30 to 2.06), 14.7% with stroke (1.45, 1.27 to 1.66), 12.5% with depression (1.40, 1.26 to 1.55), 15.0% with breast cancer (1.38, 1.18 to 1.61), 12.3% with heart disease (1.34, 1.25 to 1.44), and 13.3% with osteoarthritis (1.22, 1.12 to 1.33). Strong associations with quitting were observed in those with a decline in self-rated overall health (2.93, 2.53 to 3.40) and quality of life (2.68, 2.24 to 3.21). Some health conditions not significantly associated with quitting were prostate cancer, melanoma, nonmelanoma skin cancer, hay fever, and hearing loss. Findings were generally consistent for men and women, by age group and by smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnosis with a variety of health conditions appears to prompt drinking cessation in older adults.

Socioeconomic variation in absolute cardiovascular disease risk and treatment in the Australian population.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), preventable through appropriate management of absolute CVD risk, disproportionately affects socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals. The aim of this study was to estimate absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in absolute CVD risk and treatment in the Australian population using cross-sectional representative data on 4751 people aged 45-74 from the 2011-12 Australian Health Survey. Poisson regression was used to calculate prevalence differences (PD) and ratios (PR) for prior CVD, high 5-year absolute risk of a primary CVD event and guideline-recommended medication use, in relation to socioeconomic position (SEP, measured by education). After adjusting for age and sex, the prevalence of high absolute risk of a primary CVD event among those of low, intermediate and high SEP was 12.6%, 10.9% and 7.7% (PD, low vs. high = 5.0 [95% CI: 2.3, 7.7], PR = 1.6 [1.2, 2.2]) and for prior CVD was 10.7%, 9.1% and 6.7% (PD = 4.0 [1.4, 6.6], PR = 1.6 [1.1, 2.2]). The proportions using preventive medication use among those with high primary risk were 21.3%, 19.5% and 29.4% for low, intermediate and high SEP and for prior CVD, were 37.8%, 35.7% and 17.7% (PD = 20.1 [9.7, 30.5], PR = 2.1 [1.3, 3.5]). Proportions at high primary risk and not using medications among those of low, intermediate and high SEP were 10.6%, 8.8% and 4.7% and with prior CVD and not using medications were 8.5%, 6.3% and 4.1%. Findings indicate substantial potential to prevent CVD and reduce inequalities through appropriate management of high absolute risk in the population.

Absolute cardiovascular disease risk and lipid-lowering therapy among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and their use of lipid-lowering therapies. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative data from 2820 participants aged 18-74 years who provided biomedical data for the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Measures Survey component of the 2012-13 Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Survey. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prior CVD and use of lipid-lowering medications were ascertained at interview. 5-year absolute risk of a primary CVD event was calculated with the Australian National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance algorithm, with categories low (< 10%), moderate (10-15%) and high risk (> 15%). RESULTS: Among participants aged 35-74 years, 9.6% (95% CI, 7.2-12.0%) had prior CVD; 15.7% (95% CI, 13.0-18.3%) were at high, 4.9% (95% CI, 3.3-6.6%) at moderate, and 69.8% (95% CI, 66.8-72.8%) at low absolute primary CVD risk. 82.6% of those at high primary risk were identified on the basis of clinical criteria. High primary absolute risk affected 1.1% (95% CI, 0.0-2.5%) of 18-24-year-olds, 4.7% (95% CI, 2.0-7.5%) of 25-34-year-olds, and 44.2% (95% CI, 33.1-55.3%) of 65-74-year-olds. Lipid-lowering therapy was being used by 52.9% (95% CI, 38.2-67.6%) of people aged 35-74 years with prior CVD and by 42.2% (95% CI, 30.5-53.8%) of those at high primary CVD risk. CONCLUSION: Absolute CVD risk is high among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, and most of those at high risk are undertreated. Substantial proportions of people under 35 years of age are at high risk, but are not targeted by current guidelines for absolute CVD risk assessment, compromising CVD prevention in this population.

Developing a positive patient experience with nurses in general practice: An integrated model of patient satisfaction and enablement.

AIM: To develop a conceptual model that provides a comprehensive understanding of the structures and processes underpinning patient enablement and satisfaction in general practice nurse consultations. BACKGROUND: Current evidence regarding patient satisfaction and enablement arising from general practice nursing care is either quantitative or qualitative. To date, no studies have integrated the results of mixed methods research to provide a deeper understanding of processes that facilitate their achievement. DESIGN: A concurrent mixed methods study. METHODS: Our 2013-2014 concurrent mixed methods study comprised a quantitative study that analysed variables identified in interviews with general practice nurses, patients and practice managers with data from a cross-sectional survey of 678 patients receiving nursing care in 21 general practices; and a qualitative study that used a grounded theory approach to in-depth interviews with nurses and patients from these same practices. Using joint displays, we compared and integrated the results of the multilevel analyses and the grounded theory model derived from these studies. FINDINGS: We conceptualized a model-'developing a positive patient experience with nurses in general practice'-in which time, continuity of care, nursing scope of practice and autonomy, and patients' health conditions provide platforms for the processes of triggering healthcare partnerships and tailoring care in nurse consultations. CONCLUSION: This model builds on previous evidence describing processes and characteristics that optimize the quality of care in general practice nurse consultations. It provides a practical tool to inform education and training for general practice nurses and other clinicians.

Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4-14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5-<25·0 kg/m(2). FINDINGS: All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0-25·0 kg/m(2) (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98-1·02 for BMI 20·0-<22·5 kg/m(2); 1·00, 0·99-1·01 for BMI 22·5-<25·0 kg/m(2)), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09-1·17 for BMI 18·5-<20·0 kg/m(2); 1·51, 1·43-1·59 for BMI 15·0-<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07-1·08 for BMI 25·0-<27·5 kg/m(2); 1·20, 1·18-1·22 for BMI 27·5-<30·0 kg/m(2)). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0-<35·0 kg/m(2)) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41-1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0-<40·0 kg/m(2)) was 1·94, 1·87-2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0-<60·0 kg/m(2)) was 2·76, 2·60-2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m(2), mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m(2) units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34-1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26-1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34-1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27-1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m(2) units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m(2)) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47-1·56, for BMI measured at 35-49 years vs 1·21, 1·17-1·25, for BMI measured at 70-89 years; pheterogeneity<0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46-1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26-1·33; pheterogeneity<0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI. INTERPRETATION: The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.

Variation in readmission and mortality following hospitalisation with a diagnosis of heart failure: prospective cohort study using linked data.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalisation for heart failure is common and post-discharge outcomes, including readmission and mortality, are often poor and are poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine patient- and hospital-level variation in the risk of 30-day unplanned readmission and mortality following discharge from hospital with a diagnosis of heart failure. METHODS: Prospective cohort study using data from the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study, linking baseline survey (Jan 2006-April 2009) to hospital and mortality data (to Dec 2011). Primary outcomes in those admitted to hospital with heart failure included unplanned readmission, mortality and combined unplanned readmission/mortality, within 30 days of discharge. Multilevel models quantified the variation in outcomes between hospitals and examined associations with patient- and hospital-level characteristics. RESULTS: There were 5074 participants with a heart failure admission discharged from 251 hospitals; 1052 (21%) had unplanned readmissions, 186 (3.7%) died, and 1146 (23%) had either/both outcomes within 30 days of discharge. Crude outcomes varied across hospitals, but between-hospital variation explained little of the total variation in outcomes (intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) after inclusion of patient factors: 30-day unplanned readmission ICC = 0.0125 (p = 0.24); death ICC = 0.0000 (p > 0.99); unplanned readmission/death ICC = 0.0266 (p = 0.07)). Patient characteristics associated with a higher risk of unplanned readmission included: being male (male vs female, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.00-1.37); prior hospitalisation for cardiovascular disease (aOR = 1.44, 1.08-1.91) and for anemia (aOR = 1.36, 1.14-1.63); comorbidities at admission (severe vs none: aOR = 1.26, 1.03-1.54); lower body-mass-index (obese vs normal weight: aOR = 0.77, 0.63-0.94); and lower social interaction scores. Similarly, risk of 30-day mortality was associated with patient- rather than hospital-level factors, in particular age (≥85y vs 45-< 75y: aOR = 3.23, 1.93-5.41) and comorbidity (severe vs none: aOR = 2.68, 1.82-3.94). CONCLUSIONS: The issue of high readmission and mortality rates in people with heart failure appear to be system-wide, with the variation in these outcomes essentially attributable to variation between patients rather than hospitals. The findings suggest that there are limitations in using these outcomes as hospital performance measures in this patient population and support the need for patient-centred strategies to optimise heart failure management and outcomes.

Socioeconomic variation in incidence of primary and secondary major cardiovascular disease events: an Australian population-based prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) disproportionately affects disadvantaged people, but reliable quantitative evidence on socioeconomic variation in CVD incidence in Australia is lacking. This study aimed to quantify socioeconomic variation in rates of primary and secondary CVD events in mid-age and older Australians. METHODS: Baseline data (2006-2009) from the 45 and Up Study, an Australian cohort involving 267,153 men and women aged ≥ 45, were linked to hospital and death data (to December 2013). Outcomes comprised first event - death or hospital admission - for major CVD combined, as well as myocardial infarction and stroke, in those with and without prior CVD (secondary and primary events, respectively). Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for each outcome in relation to education (and income and area-level disadvantage), separately by age group (45-64, 65-79, and ≥ 80 years), adjusting for age and sex, and additional sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: There were 18,207 primary major CVD events over 1,144,845 years of follow-up (15.9/1000 person-years), and 20,048 secondary events over 260,357 years (77.0/1000 person-years). For both primary and secondary events, incidence increased with decreasing education, with the absolute difference between education groups largest for secondary events. Age-sex adjusted hazard ratios were highest in the 45-64 years group: for major CVDs, HR (no qualifications vs university degree) = 1.62 (95% CI: 1.49-1.77) for primary events, and HR = 1.49 (1.34-1.65) for secondary events; myocardial infarction HR = 2.31 (1.87-2.85) and HR = 2.57 (1.90-3.47) respectively; stroke HR = 1.48 (1.16-1.87) and HR = 1.97 (1.42-2.74) respectively. Similar but attenuated results were seen in older age groups, and with income. For area-level disadvantage, CVD gradients were weak and non-significant in older people (> 64 years). CONCLUSIONS: Individual-level data are important for quantifying socioeconomic variation in CVD incidence, which is shown to be substantial among both those with and without prior CVD. Findings reinforce the opportunity for, and importance of, primary and secondary prevention and treatment in reducing socioeconomic variation in CVD and consequently the overall burden of CVD morbidity and mortality in Australia.

Absolute risk of cardiovascular disease events, and blood pressure- and lipid-lowering therapy in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and treatment in Australian adults. DESIGN, PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional representative study of 9564 people aged 18 years or more who had participated in the 2011-12 Australian National Health Measures Survey (response rate for those aged 45-74 years: 46.5%). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prior CVD was ascertained and 5-year absolute risk of a primary CVD event calculated (using the Australian National Vascular Disease Prevention Alliance algorithm; categories: low [< 10%], moderate [10-15%], and high [> 15%] risk) on the basis of data on medical history, risk factors and medications, derived from interviews, physical measurements, and blood and urine samples. RESULTS: Absolute CVD risk increased with age and was higher among men than women. Overall, 19.9% (95% CI, 18.5-21.3%) of Australians aged 45-74 years had a high absolute risk of a future CVD event (an estimated 1 445 000 people): 8.7% (95% CI, 7.8-9.6%) had prior CVD (estimated 634 000 people) and 11.2% (95% CI, 10.2-12.2%) had high primary CVD risk (estimated 811 000 people). A further 8.6% (95% CI, 7.4-9.8%, estimated 625 000) were at moderate primary CVD risk. Among those with prior CVD, 44.2% (95% CI, 36.8-51.6%) were receiving blood pressure- and lipid-lowering medications, 35.4% (95% CI, 27.8-43.0%) were receiving only one of these, and 20.4% (95% CI, 13.9-26.9%) were receiving neither. Corresponding figures for high primary CVD risk were 24.3% (95% CI, 18.3-30.3%); 28.7% (95% CI, 22.7-34.7%); and 47.1% (95% CI, 39.9-54.3%). CONCLUSIONS: About one-fifth of the Australian population aged 45-74 years (about 1.4 million individuals) were estimated to have a high absolute risk of a future CVD event. Most (estimated 970 000) were not receiving currently recommended combination blood pressure- and lipid-lowering therapy, indicating substantial potential for health gains by increasing routine assessment and treatment according to absolute CVD risk.

Not all hours are equal: could time be a social determinant of health?

Time can be thought of as a resource that people need for good health. Healthy behaviour, accessing health services, working, resting and caring all require time. Like other resources, time is socially shaped, but its relevance to health and health inequality is yet to be established. Drawing from sociology and political economy, we set out the theoretical basis for two measures of time relevant to contemporary, market-based societies. We measure amount of time spent on care and work (paid and unpaid) and the intensity of time, which refers to rushing, effort and speed. Using data from wave 9 (N = 9177) of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia Survey we found that time poverty (> 80 h per week on care and work) and often or always rushing are barriers to physical activity and rushing is associated with poorer self-rated and mental health. Exploring their social patterning, we find that time-poor people have higher incomes and more time control. In contrast, rushing is linked to being a woman, lone parenthood, disability, lack of control and work-family conflicts. We supply a methodology to support quantitative investigations of time, and our findings underline time's dimensionality, social distribution and potential to influence health.

A record linkage study of antidepressant medication use and weight change in Australian adults.

OBJECTIVE: Antidepressant use is widespread. While weight gain is a commonly reported side-effect of antidepressant use and has the potential to affect population health, there is little large-scale population-based evidence on the issue, particularly for long-term use (⩾12 months). The aim of this study is to investigate the association between antidepressant use and weight change, including whether this relationship varies according to antidepressant class, recency of use, duration of use and dose. METHODS: Annual percentage weight change was calculated from self-reported weight at two time-points from 20,751 participants aged ⩾45 years from the 45 and Up Study - a population-based cohort study from New South Wales, Australia. Antidepressant use, ascertained from linked pharmaceutical data, from 19 months before baseline until end of follow-up (mean = 3.3 years of follow-up), was categorised as current, past-only, non-persistent or non-use. The association between antidepressant use and weight change was modelled using linear and multinomial logistic regressions and according to antidepressant class, recency, duration and dose. RESULTS: Antidepressants were dispensed to 23% of participants (n = 4748) during the study period. Current antidepressant users were significantly more likely to gain >3% of their body weight annually than non-users (adjusted relative risk ratio = 1.19; 95% confidence interval: [1.03, 1.38]); the risk increased with increasing dose among current users (p[trend] = 0.003). Risk of weight gain did not vary significantly according to antidepressant class, recency or duration of use; however, statistical power was limited. No significant associations were found between antidepressant use and weight loss. CONCLUSION: Current antidepressant use was associated with modest but statistically significant annual gains in weight, with similar effects observed across the different classes of antidepressants used.

Characteristics of antidepressant medication users in a cohort of mid-age and older Australians.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate antidepressant use, including the class of antidepressant, in mid-age and older Australians according to sociodemographic, lifestyle and physical and mental health-related factors. METHODS: Baseline questionnaire data on 111,705 concession card holders aged ⩾45 years from the 45 and Up Study-a population-based cohort study from New South Wales, Australia-were linked to administrative pharmaceutical data. Current- and any-antidepressant users were those dispensed medications with Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification codes beginning N06A, within ⩽6 months and ⩽19 months before baseline, respectively; non-users had no antidepressants dispensed ⩽19 months before baseline. Multinomial logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted relative risk ratios (aRRRs) for predominantly self-reported factors in relation to antidepressant use. RESULTS: Some 19% of the study population (15% of males and 23% of females) were dispensed at least one antidepressant during the study period; 40% of participants used selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) only and 32% used tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) only. Current antidepressant use was markedly higher in those reporting: severe versus no physical impairment (aRRR 3.86(95%CI 3.67-4.06)); fair/poor versus excellent/very good self-rated health (4.04(3.83-4.25)); high/very high versus low psychological distress (7.22(6.81-7.66)); ever- versus never-diagnosis of depression by a doctor (18.85(17.95-19.79)); low-dose antipsychotic use versus no antipsychotic use (12.26(9.85-15.27)); and dispensing of ⩾10 versus <5 other medications (5.97(5.62-6.34)). Sociodemographic and lifestyle factors were also associated with use, although to a lesser extent. Females, older people, those with lower education and those with poorer health were more likely to be current antidepressant users than non-users and were also more likely to use TCAs-only versus SSRIs-only. CONCLUSIONS: Use of antidepressants is substantially higher in those with physical ill-health and in those reporting a range of adverse mental health measures. In addition, sociodemographic factors, including sex, age and education were also associated with antidepressant use and the class of antidepressant used.