Adapting our Flood Risk Policies to Changing Conditions.

Flooding causes more damage and severely impacts more people worldwide than any other natural disaster. Flood risk in many parts of the United States is projected to increase due to both continued floodplain development and climate change. Many of our institutions and public policies are not designed to address these changing risk conditions. The practice of grandfathering insurance premiums in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)-allowing an insured to keep a lower rate even when risk has increased-is one such policy. We link a flood hazard model to a flood insurance premium calculator in order to provide illustrative calculations of the possible impact of grandfathering on program revenue and policyholder premiums due to sea level rise for a New York City neighborhood. We conclude by discussing how to preserve the financial soundness of the NFIP while addressing the affordability of insurance in the face of increasing flood risk.

Disasters as Learning Experiences or Disasters as Policy Opportunities? Examining Flood Insurance Purchases after Hurricanes.

Flood insurance is a critical risk management strategy, contributing to greater resilience of individuals and communities. The occurrence of disasters has been observed to alter risk management choices, including the decision to insure. This has previously been explained by learning and behavioral biases. When it comes to flood insurance, however, federal disaster aid policy could also play a role since recipients of aid are required to maintain insurance. Using a database of flood insurance policies for all states on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States between 2001 and 2010, this article uses fixed effects models to examine how take-up rates respond to the occurrence of hurricanes and tropical storms, as well as disaster declarations and aid requirements. Being hit by at least one hurricane in the previous year increases net flood insurance purchases by 7.2%. This effect dies out by three years after the storm. A presidential disaster declaration for floods increases take-up rates by 6.7%. When disaster aid grants are made available to households, take-up rates increase by 5%; this accounts for the majority of the increase in policies after occurrence of a hurricane. When the models are estimated taking into account which policies are required by disaster aid, hurricanes are estimated to lead to only a 1.5% increase in voluntary purchases. This overlooked federal policy that disaster aid recipients insure is responsible for a majority of insurance purchases postdisaster.

Strategically placing green infrastructure: cost-effective land conservation in the floodplain.

Green infrastructure approaches have attracted increased attention from local governments as a way to lower flood risk and provide an array of other environmental services. The peer-reviewed literature, however, offers few estimates of the economic impacts of such approaches at the watershed scale. We estimate the avoided flood damages and the costs of preventing development of floodplain parcels in the East River Watershed of Wisconsin's Lower Fox River Basin. Results suggest that the costs of preventing conversion of all projected floodplain development would exceed the flood damage mitigation benefits by a substantial margin. However, targeting of investments to high-benefit, low-cost parcels can reverse this equation, generating net benefits. The analysis demonstrates how any flood-prone community can use a geographic-information-based model to estimate the flood damage reduction benefits of green infrastructure, compare them to the costs, and target investments to design cost-effective nonstructural flood damage mitigation policies.

Insurance-sector tools to combat biodiversity loss.

Risk transfer can facilitate nature-positive investments.

Designing payments for ecosystem services: Lessons from previous experience with incentive-based mechanisms.

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) policies compensate individuals or communities for undertaking actions that increase the provision of ecosystem services such as water purification, flood mitigation, or carbon sequestration. PES schemes rely on incentives to induce behavioral change and can thus be considered part of the broader class of incentive- or market-based mechanisms for environmental policy. By recognizing that PES programs are incentive-based, policymakers can draw on insights from the substantial body of accumulated knowledge about this class of instruments. In particular, this article offers a set of lessons about how the environmental, socioeconomic, political, and dynamic context of a PES policy is likely to interact with policy design to produce policy outcomes, including environmental effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and poverty alleviation.

The challenge of degraded environments: how common biases impair effective policy.

Economic activity can damage natural systems and reduce the flow of ecosystem services. The harms can be substantial, as our case studies vividly illustrate. Most degraded landscapes have at least some potential to be reclaimed. However, uncertainty plagues decision making regarding degradation and reclamation, in relation to the extent of the damage, the success of reclamation, and how exposure will change in the future. We examine how a range of observed decision biases can lead to far-from-optimal policies regarding how much degradation to allow and when, as well as how and how much, to reclaim degraded sites. Despite our focus on degraded landscapes, we believe these are generic biases present in a wide range of risk situations. Our three case studies show these biases at work. The first two studies are of mining operations in the United States and Canada, and the third is of climate change.

Can Parametric Microinsurance Improve the Financial Resilience of Low-Income Households in the United States?: A Proof-of-Concept Examination.

Natural disaster risk is escalating around the globe and in the United States. A large body of research has found that lower-income households disproportionally suffer from disasters and are less likely to recover. Poorer households often lack the financial resources for rebuilding, endangering other aspects of wellbeing. Parametric microinsurance has been used in many developing countries to improve the financial resilience of low-income households. This paper presents a review of the evidence for implementing parametric microinsurance in the U.S., with spillover lessons for other highly developed countries. We discuss the benefits and the challenges of microinsurance in a US context and explore 4 possible distribution models that could help overcome difficulties, with policies being provided: (1) by an aggregator, (2) through a mobile-based technology, (3) by linking to other products or retailers, or (4) through a public sector insurer.

New insights into US flood vulnerability revealed from flood insurance big data.

Improvements in modelling power and input data have vastly improved the precision of physical flood models, but translation into economic outputs requires depth-damage functions that are inadequately verified. In particular, flood damage is widely assumed to increase monotonically with water depth. Here, we assess flood vulnerability in the US using >2 million claims from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). NFIP claims data are messy, but the size of the dataset provides powerful empirical tests of damage patterns and modelling approaches. We show that current depth-damage functions consist of disparate relationships that match poorly with observations. Observed flood losses are not monotonic functions of depth, but instead better follow a beta function, with bimodal distributions for different water depths. Uncertainty in flood losses has been called the main bottleneck in flood risk studies, an obstacle that may be remedied using large-scale empirical flood damage data.