Application of an in-hospital, surgeon-led anti-osteoporotic medication algorithm in patients with hip fractures improves persistence to medication and can prevent the second fragility fracture.

INTRODUCTION: Secondary fracture prevention is an essential part of hip fracture treatment. Despite this, many patients are discharged without the appropriate anti-osteoporotic medication. The aim of this study is to report the outcomes of the application of an in-hospital, surgeon-led anti-osteoporotic medication algorithm to patients with hip fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study followed patients with hip fractures who were treated at a tertiary referral hospital between 2020 and 2022. At discharge, anti-osteoporotic medication according to the Arbeitsgemeinschaft für Osteosynthesefragen (AO) Foundation algorithm was prescribed to all patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the risks of non-persistence to medication and of secondary fracture. RESULTS: Two hundred thirteen consecutive patients were prospectively followed. Mean follow-up was 17.2 ± 7.1 months. Persistence to medication at 2 years was 58% (95%CI 51-65%). A secondary osteoporotic fracture occurred in 1/126 (0.8%) persistent patients and 9/87 (11.4%) non-persistent patients. Multivariable Cox regression analysis confirmed that persistence to medication was significantly associated with a lower risk of secondary fracture (cause-specific hazard ratio [csHR] 0.05; 95%CI 0.01-0.45; p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: The application of the surgeon-led AO Foundation algorithm enables the in-hospital initiation of anti-osteoporotic treatment, leading to better persistence to medication and decreased incidence of secondary osteoporotic fractures.

A carbapenem-focused antimicrobial stewardship programme implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in a setting of high endemicity for multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria.

BACKGROUND: Greece is among the countries characterized by high rates of antimicrobial resistance and high consumption of antibiotics, including carbapenems. OBJECTIVES: To measure the impact of a carbapenem-focused antimicrobial stewardship programme (ASP) on the antibiotic consumption and patient outcomes in a Greek tertiary hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A quasi-experimental, before-after study, comparing a 12 month pre-intervention period with a 12 month intervention period in which a carbapenem-focused ASP was implemented. RESULTS: A total of 1268 patients were enrolled. The proportion of admitted patients who received carbapenems decreased from 4.1% (842 of 20 629) to 2.3% (426 of 18 245) (-1.8%; P < 0.001). A decrease of -4.9 DDD/100 patient-days (PD) (95% CI -7.3 to -2.6; P = 0.007) in carbapenem use and an increase in the use of piperacillin/tazobactam [+2.1 DDD/100 PD (95% CI 1.0-3.3; P = 0.010)] were observed. Thirty-day mortality following initiation of carbapenem treatment and all-cause in-hospital mortality remained unaltered after ASP implementation. In contrast, length of hospital stay increased (median 17.0 versus 19.0 days; P < 0.001), while the risk of infection-related readmission within 30 days of hospital discharge decreased (24.6% versus 16.8%; P = 0.007). In the post-implementation period, acceptance of the ASP intervention was associated with lower daily hazard of in-hospital death [cause-specific HR (csHR) 0.49; 95% CI 0.30-0.80], lower odds of 30 day mortality (OR 0.36; 95% CI 0.18-0.70) and higher rate of treatment success (csHR 2.45; 95% CI 1.59-3.77). CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and maintaining a carbapenem-focused ASP is feasible, effective and safe in settings with high rates of antimicrobial resistance, even during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Hellenic Emergency Laparotomy Study (HELAS): A Prospective Multicentre Study on the Outcomes of Emergency Laparotomy in Greece.

BACKGROUND: Emergency laparotomy (EL) is accompanied by high post-operative morbidity and mortality which varies significantly between countries and populations. The aim of this study is to report outcomes of emergency laparotomy in Greece and to compare them with the results of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA). METHODS: This is a multicentre prospective cohort study undertaken between 01.2019 and 05.2020 including consecutive patients subjected to EL in 11 Greek hospitals. EL was defined according to NELA criteria. Demographics, clinical variables, and post-operative outcomes were prospectively registered in an online database. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of post-operative mortality. RESULTS: There were 633 patients, 53.9% males, ASA class III/IV 43.6%, older than 65 years 58.6%. The most common operations were small bowel resection (20.5%), peptic ulcer repair (12.0%), adhesiolysis (11.8%) and Hartmann's procedure (11.5%). 30-day post-operative mortality reached 16.3% and serious complications occurred in 10.9%. Factors associated with post-operative mortality were increasing age and ASA class, dependent functional status, ascites, severe sepsis, septic shock, and diabetes. HELAS cohort showed similarities with NELA patients in terms of demographics and preoperative risk. Post-operative utilisation of ICU was significantly lower in the Greek cohort (25.8% vs 56.8%) whereas 30-day post-operative mortality was significantly higher (16.3% vs 8.7%). CONCLUSION: In this study, Greek patients experienced markedly worse mortality after emergency laparotomy compared with their British counterparts. This can be at least partly explained by underutilisation of critical care by surgical patients who are at high risk for death.

Retrospective analysis of outcomes of outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) for necrotising otitis externa.

Necrotising otitis externa (NOE) is an uncommon but life-threatening infection that requires prolonged systemic antimicrobial therapy. This study aims to identify factors associated with treatment response and outcome in patients with NOE treated through outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT). We performed a retrospective analysis of patients with NOE treated over a 4-year period (January 2018-January 2022) at a tertiary referral hospital in Derbyshire, UK. We defined OPAT failure as unplanned readmission within 30 days of discontinuation of OPAT. Prolonged duration of therapy was defined as length of parenteral antimicrobial treatment of more than 8 weeks. A total of 46 cases of NOE were reviewed. OPAT failure and prolonged therapy were recorded in 9 (19.6%) and 23 (50.0%) episodes respectively. Facial nerve involvement (odds ratio [OR], 14.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.76-76.60; p = 0.002), dementia (OR, 7.65; 95% CI, 1.23-47.46; p = 0.029), Charlson comorbidity score (OR, 1.41 per unit increase; 95% CI, 1.00-2.00; p = 0.049) and peak CRP level (OR, 1.03 per unit increase; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06; p = 0.027) were associated with increased risk of treatment failure. Facial nerve involvement (OR, 16.30; 95% CI, 2.60-102.31; p = 0.003) and peak CRP level (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.07; p = 0.016) were also associated with an increased need for prolonged antimicrobial therapy. In addition, extent of disease (based on imaging findings) was linked to prolonged therapy (OR, 22.89; 95% CI, 3.62-144.76; p = 0.001). NOE could be effectively managed as outpatient via OPAT. However, vigorous antimicrobial treatment and close monitoring of patients with pre-existing comorbidities, facial nerve paralysis, extensive disease and markedly elevated inflammatory markers are essential to optimise clinical outcomes.

Burden of multidrug and extensively drug-resistant ESKAPEE pathogens in a secondary hospital care setting in Greece.

Bacterial antibiotic resistance (AMR) is a significant threat to public health, with the sentinel 'ESKAPEE' pathogens, being of particular concern. A cohort study spanning 5.5 years (2016-2021) was conducted at a provincial general hospital in Crete, Greece, to describe the epidemiology of ESKAPEE-associated bacteraemia regarding levels of AMR and their impact on patient outcomes. In total, 239 bloodstream isolates were examined from 226 patients (0.7% of 32 996 admissions) with a median age of 75 years, 28% of whom had severe comorbidity and 46% with prior stay in ICU. Multidrug resistance (MDR) was lowest for Pseudomonas aeruginosa (30%) and Escherichia coli (33%), and highest among Acinetobacter baumannii (97%); the latter included 8 (22%) with extensive drug-resistance (XDR), half of which were resistant to all antibiotics tested. MDR bacteraemia was more likely to be healthcare-associated than community-onset (RR 1.67, 95% CI 1.04-2.65). Inpatient mortality was 22%, 35% and 63% for non-MDR, MDR and XDR episodes, respectively (P = 0.004). Competing risks survival analysis revealed increasing mortality linked to longer hospitalisation with increasing AMR levels, as well as differential pathogen-specific effects. A. baumannii bacteraemia was the most fatal (14-day death hazard ratio 3.39, 95% CI 1.74-6.63). Differences in microbiology, AMR profile and associated mortality compared to national and international data emphasise the importance of similar investigations of local epidemiology.

Complications of modern pancreaticoduodenectomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the past decades, the perioperative management of patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) has undergone major changes worldwide. This review aimed to systematically determine the burden of complications of PD performed in the last 10 years. DATA SOURCES: A systematic review was conducted in PubMed for randomized controlled trials and observational studies reporting postoperative complications in at least 100 PDs from January 2010 to April 2020. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane RoB2 tool for randomized studies and the methodological index for non-randomized studies (MINORS). Pooled complication rates were estimated using random-effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was investigated by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. RESULTS: A total of 20 randomized and 49 observational studies reporting 63 229 PDs were reviewed. Mean MINORS score showed a high risk of bias in non-randomized studies, while one quarter of the randomized studies were assessed to have high risk of bias. Pooled incidences of 30-day mortality, overall complications and serious complications were 1.7% (95% CI: 0.9%-2.9%; I2 = 95.4%), 54.7% (95% CI: 46.4%-62.8%; I2 = 99.4%) and 25.5% (95% CI: 21.8%-29.4%; I2= 92.9%), respectively. Clinically-relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula risk was 14.3% (95% CI: 12.4%-16.3%; I2 = 92.0%) and mean length of stay was 14.8 days (95% CI: 13.6-16.1; I2 = 99.3%). Meta-regression partially attributed the observed heterogeneity to the country of origin of the study, the study design and the American Society of Anesthesiologists class. CONCLUSIONS: Pooled complication rates estimated in this study may be used to counsel patients scheduled to undergo a PD and to set benchmarks against which centers can audit their practice. However, cautious interpretation is necessary due to substantial heterogeneity.

External validity and clinical usefulness of a risk prediction model for 30 day unplanned hospitalization in patients receiving outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) is increasingly used to treat a variety of infections. However, hospital readmissions remain relatively common. We examined the external validity and clinical usefulness of a previously derived risk prediction model for 30 day unplanned hospitalization in patients receiving OPAT. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at two large teaching hospitals in the UK. The design comprised quasi-external temporal validation on patients from the same OPAT setting as the model development, and broader external validation on patients from a different setting. The model predictors were age, prior hospitalizations in the preceding 12 months, Charlson comorbidity score, concurrent IV antimicrobial therapy, type of infection and mode of OPAT treatment. Discriminative ability, calibration and clinical usefulness were assessed. RESULTS: Data from 2578 OPAT patients were analysed. The rates of 30 day unplanned hospitalization were 11.5% (123/1073), 12.9% (140/1087) and 25.4% (106/418) in the model derivation, temporal validation and broader external validation cohorts, respectively. The discriminative ability of the prediction model was adequate on temporal validation (c-statistic 0.75; 95% CI: 0.71-0.79) and acceptable on broader validation (c-statistic 0.67; 95% CI: 0.61-0.73). In both external cohorts, the model displayed excellent calibration between observed and predicted probabilities. Decision curve analysis showed increased net benefit across a range of meaningful risk thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: A simple risk prediction model for unplanned readmission in OPAT patients demonstrated reproducible predictive performance, broad clinical transportability and clinical usefulness. This model may help improve OPAT outcomes through better identification of high-risk patients and provision of tailored care.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the proportion and associated mortality of polymicrobial (vs monomicrobial) pulmonary and bloodstream infections by Acinetobacter baumannii complex.

BACKGROUND: Differentiating Acinetobacter baumannii complex (ABC) infection from colonization remains difficult and further complicated in polymicrobial infections. PURPOSE: To assess the frequency of polymicrobial ABC infections and associated mortality. We hypothesized a lower mortality in polymicrobial infections if ABC isolation reflects colonization in some polymicrobial infections. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted in PubMed, Scopus and CENTRAL for studies reporting ABC pulmonary and bloodstream infections. The proportion of infections that were polymicrobial and the magnitude of the association between polymicrobial (vs monomicrobial) infection and mortality were estimated with meta-analyses. RESULTS: Based on 80 studies (9759 infections) from 23 countries, the pooled proportion of polymicrobial infection was 27% (95% CI 22-31%) and was similarly high for bloodstream and pulmonary infections. Polymicrobial infection was variably and insufficiently defined in most (95%) studies. Considerable heterogeneity (I2 = 95%) was observed that persisted in subgroup analyses and meta-regressions. Based on 17 studies (2675 infections), polymicrobial infection was associated with lower 28-day mortality (OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.58-0.98, I2 = 36%). However, polymicrobial infection was not associated with in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.69-1.35, I2 = 0%) based on 14 studies (953 infections). The quality of evidence (GRADE) for the association of polymicrobial (vs monomicrobial) infection with mortality was low and at high risk of bias. CONCLUSION: Polymicrobial ABC infections are common and may be associated with lower 28-day mortality. Considering the heterogeneity of polymicrobial infections and limitations of the available literature, more research is required to clarify the clinical impact of polymicrobial (vs monomicrobial) ABC infection.

Pandrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria: a systematic review of current epidemiology, prognosis and treatment options.

BACKGROUND: The literature on the epidemiology, mortality and treatment of pandrug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) is scarce, scattered and controversial. OBJECTIVES: To consolidate the relevant literature and identify treatment options for PDR GNB infections. METHODS: A systematic search in MEDLINE, Scopus and clinical trial registries was conducted. Studies reporting PDR clinical isolates were eligible for review if susceptibility testing for all major antimicrobials had been performed. Characteristics and findings of retrieved studies were qualitatively synthesized. RESULTS: Of 81 studies reviewed, 47 (58%) were published in the last 5 years. The reports reflected a worldwide dissemination of PDR GNB in 25 countries in 5 continents. Of 526 PDR isolates reported, Pseudomonas aeruginosa (n=175), Acinetobacter baumannii (n=172) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (n=125) were most common. PDR GNB were typically isolated in ICUs, but several studies demonstrated wider outbreak potential, including dissemination to long-term care facilities and international spread. All-cause mortality was high (range 20%-71%), but appeared to be substantially reduced in studies reporting treatment regimens active in vitro. No controlled trial has been performed to date, but several case reports and series noted successful use of various regimens, predominantly synergistic combinations, and in selected patients increased exposure regimens and newer antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: PDR GNB are increasingly being reported worldwide and are associated with high mortality. Several treatment regimens have been successfully used, of which synergistic combinations appear to be most promising and often the only available option. More pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic and outcome studies are needed to guide the use of synergistic combinations.

Treatment options for K. pneumoniae, P. aeruginosa and A. baumannii co-resistant to carbapenems, aminoglycosides, polymyxins and tigecycline: an approach based on the mechanisms of resistance to carbapenems.

The management of carbapenem-resistant infections is often based on polymyxins, tigecycline, aminoglycosides and their combinations. However, in a recent systematic review, we found that Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) co-resistant to carbapanems, aminoglycosides, polymyxins and tigecycline (CAPT-resistant) are increasingly being reported worldwide. Clinical data to guide the treatment of CAPT-resistant GNB are scarce and based exclusively on few case reports and small case series, but seem to indicate that appropriate (in vitro active) antimicrobial regimens, including newer antibiotics and synergistic combinations, may be associated with lower mortality. In this review, we consolidate the available literature to inform clinicians dealing with CAPT-resistant GNB about treatment options by considering the mechanisms of resistance to carbapenems. In combination with rapid diagnostic methods that allow fast detection of carbapenemase production, the approach proposed in this review may guide a timely and targeted treatment of patients with infections by CAPT-resistant GNB. Specifically, we focus on the three most problematic species, namely Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter baumannii. Several treatment options are currently available for CAPT-resistant K. pneumonia. Newer ß-lactam-ß-lactamase combinations, including the combination of ceftazidime/avibactam with aztreonam against metallo-ß-lactamase-producing isolates, appear to be more effective compared to combinations of older agents. Options for P. aeruginosa (especially metallo-ß-lactamase-producing strains) and A. baumannii remain limited. Synergistic combination of older agents (e.g., polymyxin- or fosfomycin-based synergistic combinations) may represent a last resort option, but their use against CAPT-resistant GNB requires further study.

Learning across the UK: a review of public health systems and policy approaches to early child development since political devolution.

BACKGROUND: Giving children the best start in life is critical for their future health and wellbeing. Political devolution in the UK provides a natural experiment to explore how public health systems contribute to children's early developmental outcomes across four countries. METHOD: A systematic literature review and input from a stakeholder group was used to develop a public health systems framework. This framework then informed analysis of public health policy approaches to early child development. RESULTS: A total of 118 studies met the inclusion criteria. All national policies championed a 'prevention approach' to early child development. Political factors shaped divergence, with variation in national conceptualizations of child development ('preparing for life' versus 'preparing for school') and pre-school provision ('universal entitlement' or 'earned benefit'). Poverty and resourcing were identified as key system factors that influenced outcomes. Scotland and Wales have enacted distinctive legislation focusing on wider determinants. However, this is limited by the extent of devolved powers. CONCLUSION: The systems framework clarifies policy complexity relating to early child development. The divergence of child development policies in the four countries and, particularly, the explicit recognition in Scottish and Welsh policy of wider determinants, creates scope for this topic to be a tracer area to compare UK public health systems longer term.

Evaluation of health-related quality of life in patients receiving outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) in a UK setting.

BACKGROUND: Studies assessing the benefits of outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) have paid less attention to patient-centered factors such as patients' experiences and their health-related quality of life (HRQoL). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Prospective before-and-after quasi-experimental study enrolled adult patients receiving OPAT at a tertiary hospital in Derbyshire, UK, between October 2022 and October 2023. Consenting patients completed paired EQ-5D-3 L questionnaires before OPAT initiation and upon completion of therapy or 30 days after its commencement (whichever occurred first). Changes and predictors of change in HRQoL indicators and associations with clinical outcomes (treatment failure, adverse events, and 30-day unplanned readmission) were examined. RESULTS: Health state index and visual analogue scale (EQ VAS) scores of 162 enrolled patients at baseline were significantly lower than the UK population averages, but the patients experienced significant improvements in both scores and in four EQ-5D dimensions (mobility, self-care, usual activities, and pain/discomfort). Baseline health index and EQ VAS scores were significant independent predictors of positive changes in HRQoL scores. CONCLUSIONS: OPAT is associated with improved patient-reported quality of life and facilitates early return to work or school. Nevertheless, it is crucial to closely monitor patients with a lower baseline quality of life to optimize their overall OPAT experience.

Global prevalence of cefiderocol non-susceptibility in Enterobacterales, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cefiderocol is a last resort option for carbapenem-resistant (CR) Gram-negative bacteria, especially metallo-ß-lactamase-producing Pseudomonas aeruginosa and CR Acinetobacter baumannii. Monitoring global levels of cefiderocol non-susceptibility (CFDC-NS) is important. OBJECTIVES: To systematically collate and examine studies investigating in vitro CFDC-NS and estimate the global prevalence of CFDC-NS against major Gram-negative pathogens. DATA SOURCES: PubMed and Scopus, up to May 2023. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Eligible were studies reporting CFDC-NS in Enterobacterales, P. aeruginosa, A. baumannii, or Stenotrophomonas maltophilia clinical isolates. RISK-OF-BIAS ASSESSMENT: Two independent reviewers extracted study data and assessed the risk of bias on the population, setting, and measurement (susceptibility testing) domains. DATA SYNTHESIS: Binomial-Normal mixed-effects models were applied to estimate CFDC-NS prevalence by species, coresistance phenotype, and breakpoint definition (EUCAST, CLSI, and FDA). Sources of heterogeneity were investigated by subgroup and meta-regression analyses. RESULTS: In all, 78 studies reporting 82 035 clinical isolates were analysed (87% published between 2020 and 2023). CFDC-NS prevalence (EUCAST breakpoints) was low overall but varied by species (S. maltophilia 0.4% [95% CI 0.2-0.7%], Enterobacterales 3.0% [95% CI 1.5-6.0%], P. aeruginosa 1.4% [95% CI 0.5-4.0%]) and was highest for A. baumannii (8.8%, 95% CI 4.9-15.2%). CFDC-NS was much higher in CR Enterobacterales (12.4%, 95% CI 7.3-20.0%) and CR A. baumannii (13.2%, 95% CI 7.8-21.5%), but relatively low for CR P. aeruginosa (3.5%, 95% CI 1.6-7.8%). CFDC-NS was exceedingly high in New Delhi metallo-ß-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales (38.8%, 95% CI 22.6-58.0%), New Delhi metallo-ß-lactamase-producing A. baumannii (44.7%, 95% CI 34.5-55.4%), and ceftazidime/avibactam-resistant Enterobacterales (36.6%, 95% CI 22.7-53.1%). CFDC-NS varied considerably with breakpoint definition, predominantly among CR bacteria. Additional sources of heterogeneity were single-centre investigations and geographical regions. CONCLUSIONS: CFDC-NS prevalence is low overall, but alarmingly high for specific CR phenotypes circulating in some institutions or regions. Continuous surveillance and updating of global CFDC-NS estimates are imperative while cefiderocol is increasingly introduced into clinical practice. The need to harmonize EUCAST and CLSI breakpoints was evident.

Effectiveness and safety of a disposable elastomeric continuous infusion pump for outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) in a UK setting.

We evaluated the effectiveness and safety of continuous antimicrobial infusion using a disposable elastomeric device in an outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) setting. We conducted a retrospective analysis of all patients who received either flucloxacillin (n = 131 episodes) or piperacillin/tazobactam (n = 301 episodes) as continuous infusion via elastomeric devices over 5 years (January 2018-December 2022) at a tertiary referral hospital in Derbyshire, UK. Overall, 81 adverse events were recorded in 77 (18%; 77/432) patient-episodes. Most adverse events were vascular access-related (59%; 4.6 events per 1000 OPAT-days), including one line-related infection (0.2%; 0.1 events per 1000 OPAT-days). 165 (38%) patient-episodes experienced at least one incident of incomplete infusion. Successful outcome (cure or improvement) occurred in 364 (84%) episodes. Our findings suggest that elastomeric infusion pumps are safe and effective for administering selected antimicrobial agents in OPAT. However, close monitoring of patients and the device are essential to ensure optimal delivery of prescribed therapy.

Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for serious complications after emergency laparotomy.

PURPOSE: Emergency laparotomy (EL) is a common operation with high risk for postoperative complications, thereby requiring accurate risk stratification to manage vulnerable patients optimally. We developed and internally validated a predictive model of serious complications after EL. METHODS: Data for eleven carefully selected candidate predictors of 30-day postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade > = 3) were extracted from the HELAS cohort of EL patients in 11 centres in Greece and Cyprus. Logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) was applied for model development. Discrimination and calibration measures were estimated and clinical utility was explored with decision curve analysis (DCA). Reproducibility and heterogeneity were examined with Bootstrap-based internal validation and Internal-External Cross-Validation. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program's (ACS-NSQIP) model was applied to the same cohort to establish a benchmark for the new model. RESULTS: From data on 633 eligible patients (175 complication events), the SErious complications After Laparotomy (SEAL) model was developed with 6 predictors (preoperative albumin, blood urea nitrogen, American Society of Anaesthesiology score, sepsis or septic shock, dependent functional status, and ascites). SEAL had good discriminative ability (optimism-corrected c-statistic: 0.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79-0.81), calibration (optimism-corrected calibration slope: 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.03) and overall fit (scaled Brier score: 25.1%, 95% CI 24.1-26.1%). SEAL compared favourably with ACS-NSQIP in all metrics, including DCA across multiple risk thresholds. CONCLUSION: SEAL is a simple and promising model for individualized risk predictions of serious complications after EL. Future external validations should appraise SEAL's transportability across diverse settings.

Risk of venous thromboembolism in outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT): A systematic review and meta-analysis.

The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) is not fully understood and the optimal strategy for thromboprophylaxis remains unclear. This systematic review investigated the incidence of VTE in OPAT settings (PROSPERO CRD42022381523). MEDLINE, CINAHL, Emcare, Embase, Cochrane Library and grey literature were searched from earliest records to 18 January 2023. Primary studies reporting non-catheter-related VTE or catheter-related thromboembolism (CRT) events in adults who received parenteral antibiotics in home or outpatient settings were eligible. In total, 43 studies involving 23 432 patient episodes were reviewed, of which 4 studies reported non-catheter-related VTE and 39 included CRT. Based on generalised linear mixed-effects models, pooled risk estimates of non-catheter-related VTE and CRT were 0.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0-0.7%] and 1.1% [95% CI 0.8-1.5%; prediction interval (PI) 0.2-5.4%]. Heterogeneity was largely attributed to risk of bias by meta-regression (R2 = 21%). Excluding high-risk-of-bias studies, CRT risk was 0.8% (95% CI 0.5-1.2%; PI 0.1-4.5%). From 25 studies, the pooled CRT rate per 1000 catheter-days was 0.37 (95% CI 0.25-0.55; PI 0.08-1.64). These findings do not support universal thromboprophylaxis or routine use of an inpatient VTE risk assessment model in the OPAT setting. However, a high index of suspicion should be maintained, especially for patients with known risk factors for VTE. An optimised protocol of OPAT-specific VTE risk assessment should be sought.

Artificial Intelligence in Surgical Risk Prediction.

Risk prediction and stratification of short-term and long-term postoperative outcomes are growing in importance and scope of application in everyday clinical practice [...].

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Preventive Measures against Healthcare-Associated Infections from Antibiotic-Resistant ESKAPEE Pathogens: A Two-Center, Natural Quasi-Experimental Study in Greece.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented stress on healthcare systems worldwide, forming settings of concern for increasing antimicrobial resistance. We investigated the impact of SARS-CoV-2 preventive measures against healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) from antibiotic-resistant bacteria in two tertiary-care hospitals. We compared infection rates between March 2019 and February 2020 (pre-intervention period) and March 2020 and February 2021 (COVID-19 intervention period) from drug-resistant ESKAPEE bacteria (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus; vancomycin-resistant Enterococci; carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterobacter species and Escherichia coli). Over 24 months, 586 drug-resistant ESKAPEE HAIs occurred in 439 patients (0.3% of 179,629 inpatients) with a mean age of 63 years, with 43% being treated in intensive care units (ICUs), and having a 45% inpatient mortality rate. Interrupted time series analysis revealed increasing infection rates before the intervention that were sharply interrupted by abrupt drops for most pathogens and henceforth remained stable in the ICUs but progressively increased in ordinary wards. In the ICUs, the pooled infection rate was 44% lower over the intervention period compared to the pre-intervention period (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.56, 95%CI 0.41-0.75, p < 0.001). Pooled infection rates in the wards were slightly higher over the COVID-19 period (IRR 1.12, 95%CI 0.87-1.45, p = 0.368). The findings confirmed the ancillary beneficial impact of the enhanced bundle of transmission-based precautions adopted against SARS-CoV-2 in rapidly constraining antimicrobial-resistant HAIs in two Greek hospitals.

Prospective multicenter external validation of postoperative mortality prediction tools in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy.

BACKGROUND: Accurate preoperative risk assessment in emergency laparotomy (EL) is valuable for informed decision making and rational use of resources. Available risk prediction tools have not been validated adequately across diverse health care settings. Herein, we report a comparative external validation of four widely cited prognostic models. METHODS: A multicenter cohort was prospectively composed of consecutive patients undergoing EL in 11 Greek hospitals from January 2020 to May 2021 using the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) inclusion criteria. Thirty-day mortality risk predictions were calculated using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP), NELA, Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM), and Predictive Optimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk tools. Surgeons' assessment of postoperative mortality using predefined cutoffs was recorded, and a surgeon-adjusted ACS-NSQIP prediction was calculated when the original model's prediction was relatively low. Predictive performances were compared using scaled Brier scores, discrimination and calibration measures and plots, and decision curve analysis. Heterogeneity across hospitals was assessed by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 631 patients were included, and 30-day mortality was 16.3%. The ACS-NSQIP and its surgeon-adjusted version had the highest scaled Brier scores. All models presented high discriminative ability, with concordance statistics ranging from 0.79 for P-POSSUM to 0.85 for NELA. However, except the surgeon-adjusted ACS-NSQIP (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.742), all other models were poorly calibrated ( p < 0.001). Decision curve analysis revealed superior clinical utility of the ACS-NSQIP. Following recalibrations, predictive accuracy improved for all models, but ACS-NSQIP retained the lead. Between-hospital heterogeneity was minimum for the ACS-NSQIP model and maximum for P-POSSUM. CONCLUSION: The ACS-NSQIP tool was most accurate for mortality predictions after EL in a broad external validation cohort, demonstrating utility for facilitating preoperative risk management in the Greek health care system. Subjective surgeon assessments of patient prognosis may optimize ACS-NSQIP predictions. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Diagnostic Test/Criteria; Level II.

Editorial for the Special Issue: "Epidemiology, Prognosis and Antimicrobial Treatment of Extensively Antibiotic-Resistant Bacterial Infections".

The increasing consumption of broad-spectrum antimicrobials is fuelling a vicious cycle leading to extensively drug-resistant (XDR) and pandrug-resistant (PDR) bacteria [...].