A sustainable blue economy may not be possible in Tanzania without cutting emissions.

Balancing blue growth with the conservation of wild species and habitats is a key challenge for global ocean management. This is exacerbated in Global South nations, such as Tanzania, where climate-driven ocean change requires delicate marine spatial planning (MSP) trade-offs to ensure climate resilience of marine resources relied upon by coastal communities. Here, we identified challenges and opportunities that climate change presents to the near-term spatial management of Tanzania's artisanal fishing sector, marine protected areas and seaweed farming. Specifically, spatial meta-analysis of climate modelling for the region was carried out to estimate the natural distribution of climate resilience in the marine resources that support these socially important sectors. We estimated changes within the next 20 and 40 years, using modelling projections forced under global emissions trajectories, as well as a wealth of GIS and habitat suitability data derived from globally distributed programmes. Multi-decadal analyses indicated that long-term climate change trends and extreme weather present important challenges to the activity of these sectors, locally and regionally. Only in few instances did we identify areas exhibiting climate resilience and opportunities for sectoral expansion. Including these climate change refugia and bright spots in effective ocean management strategies may serve as nature-based solutions: promoting adaptive capacity in some of Tanzania's most vulnerable economic sectors; creating wage-gaining opportunities that promote gender parity; and delivering some economic benefits of a thriving ocean where possible. Without curbs in global emissions, however, a bleak future may emerge for globally valuable biodiversity hosted in Tanzania, and for its coastal communities, despite the expansion of protected areas or curbs in other pressures. Growing a sustainable ocean economy in this part of the Global South remains a substantial challenge without global decarbonization.

Identifying priority sites for whale shark ship collision management globally.

The expansion of the world's merchant fleet poses a great threat to the ocean's biodiversity. Collisions between ships and marine megafauna can have population-level consequences for vulnerable species. The Endangered whale shark (Rhincodon typus) shares a circumglobal distribution with this expanding fleet and tracking of movement pathways has shown that large vessel collisions pose a major threat to the species. However, it is not yet known whether they are also at risk within aggregation sites, where up to 400 individuals can gather to feed on seasonal bursts of planktonic productivity. These "constellation" sites are of significant ecological, socio-economic and cultural value. Here, through expert elicitation, we gathered information from most known constellation sites for this species across the world (>50 constellations and >13,000 individual whale sharks). We defined the spatial boundaries of these sites and their overlap with shipping traffic. Sites were then ranked based on relative levels of potential collision danger posed to whale sharks in the area. Our results showed that researchers and resource managers may underestimate the threat posed by large ship collisions due to a lack of direct evidence, such as injuries or witness accounts, which are available for other, sub-lethal threat categories. We found that constellations in the Arabian Sea and adjacent waters, the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of California, and Southeast and East Asia, had the greatest level of collision threat. We also identified 39 sites where peaks in shipping activity coincided with peak seasonal occurrences of whale sharks, sometimes across several months. Simulated collision mitigation options estimated potentially minimal impact to industry, as most whale shark core habitat areas were small. Given the threat posed by vessel collisions, a coordinated, multi-national approach to mitigation is needed within priority whale shark habitats to ensure collision protection for the species.

Environmental effects on the distribution of corallimorpharians in Tanzania.

This study examined the distribution and abundance of corallimorpharians (Cnidaria, Anthozoa) in Tanzania in relation to different aspects of the coral reef environment. Five reefs under varying degrees of human disturbance were investigated using the line intercept transect and point technique. Corallimorpharian growth and the composition of the substratum were quantified in different habitats within reefs: the inner and middle reef flat, the reef crest, and at the 2 and 4 m depths on the reef slope. Corallimorpharians occurred on all the reefs and 5 species were identified: Rhodactis rhodostoma, R. mussoides, Ricordea yuma, Actinodiscus unguja and A. nummiforme. R. rhodostoma was the dominant corallimorpharian at all sites. Within reefs, they had the highest densities in the shallow habitats. While R. rhodostoma occurred in all habitats, the other corallimorpharian species showed uneven distributions. Corallimorpharians ranked second, after scleractinian coral, in percent living cover. Results from this study suggested that corallimorpharians benefitted from disturbance compared with other sessile organisms. They preferred inhabiting areas with dead coral, rock and rubble whilst live coral was avoided. There was a positive relationship between percent cover of corallimorpharians and water turbidity and they dominated the more disturbed reefs, i.e. reefs that were affected by higher nutrient loads and fishing.