Universal Framework for Record Ages under Restart.

We propose a universal framework to compute record age statistics of a stochastic time series that undergoes random restarts. The proposed framework makes minimal assumptions on the underlying process and is furthermore suited to treat generic restart protocols going beyond the Markovian setting. After benchmarking the framework for classical random walks on the 1D lattice, we derive a universal criterion underpinning the impact of restart on the age of the nth record for generic time series with nearest-neighbor transitions. Crucially, the criterion contains a penalty of order n that puts strong constraints on restart expediting the creation of records, as compared to the simple first-passage completion. The applicability of our approach is further demonstrated on an aggregation-shattering process where we compute the typical growth rates of aggregate sizes. This unified framework paves the way to explore record statistics of time series under restart in a wide range of complex systems.

Reversible target-binding kinetics of multiple impatient particles.

Certain biochemical reactions can only be triggered after binding a sufficient number of particles to a specific target region such as an enzyme or a protein sensor. We investigate the distribution of the reaction time, i.e., the first instance when all independently diffusing particles are bound to the target. When each particle binds irreversibly, this is equivalent to the first-passage time of the slowest (last) particle. In turn, reversible binding to the target renders the problem much more challenging and drastically changes the distribution of the reaction time. We derive the exact solution of this problem and investigate the short-time and long-time asymptotic behaviors of the reaction time probability density. We also analyze how the mean reaction time depends on the unbinding rate and the number of particles. Our exact and asymptotic solutions are compared to Monte Carlo simulations.

Extreme events in stochastic transport on networks.

Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier studies of extreme events on complex networks had focused only on the nodal events. If random walks are used to model the transport process on a network, it is known that degree of the nodes determines the extreme event properties. In contrast, in this work, it is shown that extreme events on the edges display a distinct set of properties from that of the nodes. It is analytically shown that the probability for the occurrence of extreme events on an edge is independent of the degree of the nodes linked by the edge and is dependent only on the total number of edges on the network and the number of walkers on it. Further, it is also demonstrated that non-trivial correlations can exist between the extreme events on the nodes and the edges. These results are in agreement with the numerical simulations on synthetic and real-life networks.

Depolarization of opinions on social networks through random nudges.

Polarization of opinions has been empirically noted in many online social network platforms. Traditional models of opinion dynamics, based on statistical physics principles, do not account for the emergence of polarization and echo chambers in online network platforms. A recently introduced opinion dynamics model that incorporates the homophily factor-the tendency of agents to connect with those holding similar opinions as their own-captures polarization and echo chamber effects. In this work, we provide a nonintrusive framework for mildly nudging agents in an online community to form random connections. This is shown to lead to significant depolarization of opinions and decrease the echo chamber effects. Though a mild nudge effectively avoids polarization, overdoing this leads to another undesirable effect, namely, radicalization. Further, we obtain the optimal nudge probability to avoid the extremes of polarization and radicalization outcomes.

Evolution of honesty in higher-order social networks.

Sender-receiver games are simple models of information transmission that provide a formalism to study the evolution of honest signaling and deception between a sender and a receiver. In many practical scenarios, lies often affect groups of receivers, which inevitably entangles the payoffs of individuals to the payoffs of other agents in their group, and this makes the formalism of pairwise sender-receiver games inapt for where it might be useful the most. We therefore introduce group interactions among receivers and study how their interconnectedness in higher-order social networks affects the evolution of lying. We observe a number of counterintuitive results that are rooted in the complexity of the underlying evolutionary dynamics, which has thus far remained hidden in the realm of pairwise interactions. We find conditions for honesty to persist even when there is a temptation to lie, and we observe the prevalence of moral strategy profiles even when lies favor the receiver at a cost to the sender. We confirm the robustness of our results by further performing simulations on hypergraphs created from real-world data using the SocioPatterns database. Altogether, our results provide persuasive evidence that moral behavior may evolve on higher-order social networks, at least as long as individuals interact in groups that are small compared to the size of the network.

First detection of threshold crossing events under intermittent sensing.

The time taken by a random variable to cross a threshold for the first time, known as the first passage time, is of interest in many areas of sciences and engineering. Conventionally, there is an implicit assumption that the notional "sensor" monitoring the threshold crossing event is always active. In many realistic scenarios, the sensor monitoring the stochastic process works intermittently. Then, the relevant quantity of interest is the first detection time, which denotes the time when the sensor detects the random variable to be above the threshold for the first time. In this Letter, a birth-death process monitored by a random intermittent sensor is studied for which the first detection time distribution is obtained. In general, it is shown that the first detection time is related to and is obtainable from the first passage time distribution. Our analytical results display an excellent agreement with simulations. Furthermore, this framework is demonstrated in several applications-the susceptible infected susceptible compartmental and logistic models and birth-death processes with resetting. Finally, we solve the practically relevant problem of inferring the first passage time distribution from the first detection time.

The evolution of trust and trustworthiness.

Trust and trustworthiness form the basis for continued social and economic interactions, and they are also fundamental for cooperation, fairness, honesty, and indeed for many other forms of prosocial and moral behaviour. However, trust entails risks, and building a trustworthy reputation requires effort. So how did trust and trustworthiness evolve, and under which conditions do they thrive? To find answers, we operationalize trust and trustworthiness using the trust game with the trustor's investment and the trustee's return of the investment as the two key parameters. We study this game on different networks, including the complete network, random and scale-free networks, and in the well-mixed limit. We show that in all but one case, the network structure has little effect on the evolution of trust and trustworthiness. Specifically, for well-mixed populations, lattices, random and scale-free networks, we find that trust never evolves, while trustworthiness evolves with some probability depending on the game parameters and the updating dynamics. Only for the scale-free network with degree non-normalized dynamics, we find parameter values for which trust evolves but trustworthiness does not, as well as values for which both trust and trustworthiness evolve. We conclude with a discussion about mechanisms that could lead to the evolution of trust and outline directions for future work.