The enduring world forest carbon sink.

The uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by terrestrial ecosystems is critical for moderating climate change1. To provide a ground-based long-term assessment of the contribution of forests to terrestrial CO2 uptake, we synthesized in situ forest data from boreal, temperate and tropical biomes spanning three decades. We found that the carbon sink in global forests was steady, at 3.6 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1990s and 2000s, and 3.5 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 2010s. Despite this global stability, our analysis revealed some major biome-level changes. Carbon sinks have increased in temperate (+30 ± 5%) and tropical regrowth (+29 ± 8%) forests owing to increases in forest area, but they decreased in boreal (-36 ± 6%) and tropical intact (-31 ± 7%) forests, as a result of intensified disturbances and losses in intact forest area, respectively. Mass-balance studies indicate that the global land carbon sink has increased2, implying an increase in the non-forest-land carbon sink. The global forest sink is equivalent to almost half of fossil-fuel emissions (7.8 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 in 1990-2019). However, two-thirds of the benefit from the sink has been negated by tropical deforestation (2.2 ± 0.5 Pg C yr-1 in 1990-2019). Although the global forest sink has endured undiminished for three decades, despite regional variations, it could be weakened by ageing forests, continuing deforestation and further intensification of disturbance regimes1. To protect the carbon sink, land management policies are needed to limit deforestation, promote forest restoration and improve timber-harvesting practices1,3.

No growth stimulation of Canada's boreal forest under half-century of combined warming and CO2 fertilization.

Considerable evidence exists that current global temperatures are higher than at any time during the past millennium. However, the long-term impacts of rising temperatures and associated shifts in the hydrological cycle on the productivity of ecosystems remain poorly understood for mid to high northern latitudes. Here, we quantify species-specific spatiotemporal variability in terrestrial aboveground biomass stem growth across Canada's boreal forests from 1950 to the present. We use 873 newly developed tree-ring chronologies from Canada's National Forest Inventory, representing an unprecedented degree of sampling standardization for a large-scale dendrochronological study. We find significant regional- and species-related trends in growth, but the positive and negative trends compensate each other to yield no strong overall trend in forest growth when averaged across the Canadian boreal forest. The spatial patterns of growth trends identified in our analysis were to some extent coherent with trends estimated by remote sensing, but there are wide areas where remote-sensing information did not match the forest growth trends. Quantifications of tree growth variability as a function of climate factors and atmospheric CO2 concentration reveal strong negative temperature and positive moisture controls on spatial patterns of tree growth rates, emphasizing the ecological sensitivity to regime shifts in the hydrological cycle. An enhanced dependence of forest growth on soil moisture during the late-20th century coincides with a rapid rise in summer temperatures and occurs despite potential compensating effects from increased atmospheric CO2 concentration.

A Canadian upland forest soil profile and carbon stocks database.

"A Canadian upland forest soil profile and carbon stocks database" was compiled in phases over a period of 10 years to address various questions related to modeling upland forest soil carbon in a national forest carbon accounting model. For 3,253 pedons, the SITES table contains estimates for soil organic carbon stocks (Mg/ha) in organic horizons and mineral horizons to a 100-cm depth, soil taxonomy, leading tree species, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, province or territory, terrestrial ecozone, and latitude and longitude, with an assessment of the quality of information about location. The PROFILES table contains profile data (16,167 records by horizon) used to estimate the carbon stocks that appear in the SITES table, plus additional soil chemical and physical data, where provided by the data source. The exceptions to this are estimates for soil carbon stocks based on Canadian National Forest Inventory data (NFI [2006] in REFERENCES table), where data were collected by depth increment rather than horizon and, therefore, total soil carbon stocks were calculated separately before being entered into the SITES table. Data in the PROFILES table include the carbon stock estimate for each horizon (corrected for coarse fragment content), and the data used to calculate the carbon stock estimate, such as horizon thickness, bulk density, and percent organic carbon. The PROFILES table also contains data, when reported by the source, for percent carbonate carbon, pH, percent total nitrogen, particle size distribution (percent sand, silt, clay), texture class, exchangeable cations, cation and total exchange capacity, and percent Fe and Al. An additional table provides references (REFERENCES table) for the source data. Earlier versions of the database were used to develop national soil carbon modeling categories based on differences in carbon stocks linked to soil taxonomy and to examine the potential of using soil taxonomy and leading tree species to improve accuracy in modeled predictions. The current database is being used to develop soil carbon model parameters linked to soil taxonomy and leading tree species and, by various governmental and nongovernmental organizations, to improve digital mapping of ecosite types and soil properties regionally, nationally, and internationally. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2018. Information contained in this publication or product may be reproduced, in part or in whole, and by any means, for personal or public non-commercial purposes, without charge or further permission, unless otherwise specified. You are asked to: exercise due diligence in ensuring the accuracy of the materials reproduced; indicate the complete title of the materials reproduced, and the name of the author organization; indicate that the reproduction is a copy of an official work that is published by Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) and that the reproduction has not been produced in affiliation with, or with the endorsement of, NRCan. Commercial reproduction and distribution is prohibited except with written permission from NRCan. For more information, contact NRCan at copyright.droitdauteur@nrcan-rncan.gc.ca.

Climate change mitigation strategies in the forest sector: biophysical impacts and economic implications in British Columbia, Canada.

Managing forests to increase carbon sequestration or reduce carbon emissions and using wood products and bioenergy to store carbon and substitute for other emission-intensive products and fossil fuel energy have been considered effective ways to tackle climate change in many countries and regions. The objective of this study is to examine the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector by developing and assessing potential mitigation strategies and portfolios with various goals in British Columbia (BC), Canada. From a systems perspective, mitigation potentials of five individual strategies and their combinations were examined with regionally differentiated implementations of changes. We also calculated cost curves for the strategies and explored socio-economic impacts using an input-output model. Our results showed a wide range of mitigation potentials and that both the magnitude and the timing of mitigation varied across strategies. The greatest mitigation potential was achieved by improving the harvest utilization, shifting the commodity mix to longer-lived wood products, and using harvest residues for bioenergy. The highest cumulative mitigation of 421 MtCO2e for BC was estimated when employing the strategy portfolio that maximized domestic mitigation during 2017-2050, and this would contribute 35% of BC's greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050 at less than $100/tCO2e and provide additional socio-economic benefits. This case study demonstrated the application of an integrated systems approach that tracks carbon stock changes and emissions in forest ecosystems, harvested wood products (HWPs), and the avoidance of emissions through the use of HWPs and is therefore applicable to other countries and regions.

Relationships between individual-tree mortality and water-balance variables indicate positive trends in water stress-induced tree mortality across North America.

Accounting for water stress-induced tree mortality in forest productivity models remains a challenge due to uncertainty in stress tolerance of tree populations. In this study, logistic regression models were developed to assess species-specific relationships between probability of mortality (Pm ) and drought, drawing on 8.1 million observations of change in vital status (m) of individual trees across North America. Drought was defined by standardized (relative) values of soil water content (Ws,z ) and reference evapotranspiration (ETr,z ) at each field plot. The models additionally tested for interactions between the water-balance variables, aridity class of the site (AC), and estimated tree height (h). Considering drought improved model performance in 95 (80) per cent of the 64 tested species during calibration (cross-validation). On average, sensitivity to relative drought increased with site AC (i.e. aridity). Interaction between water-balance variables and estimated tree height indicated that drought sensitivity commonly decreased during early height development and increased during late height development, which may reflect expansion of the root system and decreasing whole-plant, leaf-specific hydraulic conductance, respectively. Across North America, predictions suggested that changes in the water balance caused mortality to increase from 1.1% yr-1 in 1951 to 2.0% yr-1 in 2014 (a net change of 0.9 ± 0.3% yr-1 ). Interannual variation in mortality also increased, driven by increasingly severe droughts in 1988, 1998, 2006, 2007 and 2012. With strong confidence, this study indicates that water stress is a common cause of tree mortality. With weak-to-moderate confidence, this study strengthens previous claims attributing positive trends in mortality to increasing levels of water stress. This 'learn-as-we-go' approach - defined by sampling rare drought events as they continue to intensify - will help to constrain the hydraulic limits of dominant tree species and the viability of boreal and temperate forest biomes under continued climate change.

Carbon dynamics on agricultural land reverting to woody land in Ontario, Canada.

The 2015 Paris Agreement reinforces the importance of the land sector and its contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions. Thus, there is growing interest in improving estimates of the GHG balance in response to land-use changes (LUCs) involving agriculture and forestry, for national-scale reporting, and for carbon (C) offsets. Large agricultural areas in Europe, Russia and North America are reverting to forest, either naturally or through planting, after abandonment of agricultural land, and this trend may have a substantial impact on carbon budgets. We report results of a pilot project in the Mixedwood Plains ecozone of eastern Canada to analyze the change in the C budget on a landscape over 15 years on abandoned cropland where woody vegetation is regenerating. Thirty-six plots (2 km × 2 km) with paired aerial photographs taken circa 1994 and circa 2008 at a scale of 1:10,000 or larger were randomly selected from the 20 km × 20 km National Forest Inventory (NFI) grid. A spatially-explicit version of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) was used to estimate impacts of LUC on C stocks and fluxes. Polygons identifying areas of LUC within each photo plot were delineated, classified, and evaluated to provide input data for the model. The rate of C accumulation in our study area was found to be relatively constant over the entire simulation period, at 1.07 Mg C/ha/yr. Abandoned agricultural land reverting to woody lands could play an important role in regional and national C sequestration in Canada, but more research is required to quantify the areal extent of this LUC.

Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming.

An increasing number of studies conclude that water limitations and heat stress may hinder the capacity of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) trees, a dominant species of Canada's boreal forests, to grow and assimilate atmospheric carbon. However, there is currently no scientific consensus on the future of these forests over the next century in the context of widespread climate warming. The large spatial extent of black spruce forests across the Canadian boreal forest and associated variability in climate, demography, and site conditions pose challenges for projecting future climate change responses. Here we provide an evaluation of the impacts of climate warming and drying, as well as increasing [CO2 ], on the aboveground productivity of black spruce forests across Canada south of 60°N for the period 1971 to 2100. We use a new extensive network of tree-ring data obtained from Canada's National Forest Inventory, spatially explicit simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and its drivers, and multivariate statistical modeling. We found that soil water availability is a significant driver of black spruce interannual variability in productivity across broad areas of the western to eastern Canadian boreal forest. Interannual variability in productivity was also found to be driven by autotrophic respiration in the warmest regions. In most regions, the impacts of soil water availability and respiration on interannual variability in productivity occurred during the phase of carbohydrate accumulation the year preceding tree-ring formation. Results from projections suggest an increase in the importance of soil water availability and respiration as limiting factors on NPP over the next century due to warming, but this response may vary to the extent that other factors such as carbon dioxide fertilization, and respiration acclimation to high temperature, contribute to dampening these limitations.

Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain.

A large carbon sink in northern land surfaces inferred from global carbon cycle inversion models led to concerns during Kyoto Protocol negotiations that countries might be able to avoid efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions by claiming large sinks in their managed forests. The greenhouse gas balance of Canada's managed forest is strongly affected by naturally occurring fire with high interannual variability in the area burned and by cyclical insect outbreaks. Taking these stochastic future disturbances into account, we used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to project that the managed forests of Canada could be a source of between 30 and 245 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1) during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012). The recent transition from sink to source is the result of large insect outbreaks. The wide range in the predicted greenhouse gas balance (215 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1)) is equivalent to nearly 30% of Canada's emissions in 2005. The increasing impact of natural disturbances, the two major insect outbreaks, and the Kyoto Protocol accounting rules all contributed to Canada's decision not to elect forest management. In Canada, future efforts to influence the carbon balance through forest management could be overwhelmed by natural disturbances. Similar circumstances may arise elsewhere if global change increases natural disturbance rates. Future climate mitigation agreements that do not account for and protect against the impacts of natural disturbances, for example, by accounting for forest management benefits relative to baselines, will fail to encourage changes in forest management aimed at mitigating climate change.

Inward- versus outward-focused bioeconomy strategies for British Columbia's forest products industry: a harvested wood products carbon storage and emission perspective.

BACKGROUND: British Columbia's (BC) extensive forest resources provide climate change mitigation opportunities that are available to few other jurisdictions. However, as a consequence of the Mountain Pine Beetle outbreak and large-scale wildfires, BC is anticipating reduced roundwood harvest for the next decades. Progress towards more climatically efficient utilization of forest resources is needed. This research quantitatively compared the greenhouse gas emission consequences of nine harvested wood products trade and consumption strategies. Inward-focused strategies use wood products within Canada to achieve emission reduction objectives, while outward-focused strategies encourage exports of wood products. RESULTS: In the business-as-usual baseline scenario, average emissions arising from BC-originated harvested wood products between 2016 and 2050 were 40 MtCO2e yr-1. The estimated theoretical boundaries were 11 MtCO2e yr-1 and 54 MtCO2e yr-1, under the scenarios of using all harvests for either construction purposes or biofuel production, respectively. Due to the constrained domestic market size, inward-focused scenarios that were based on population and market capacity achieved 0.3-10% emission reductions compared to the baseline. The international markets were larger, however the emissions varied substantially between 68% reduction and 25% increase depending on wood products' end uses. CONCLUSIONS: Future bioeconomy strategies can have a substantial impact on emissions. This analysis revealed that from a carbon storage and emission perspective, it was better to consume BC's harvests within Canada and only export those products that would be used for long-lived construction applications, provided that construction market access beyond the US was available. However, restricting export of wood products destined for short-lived uses such as pulp and wood pellets would have significant economic and social impacts. On the other hand, inward-focused strategies had a small but politically and environmentally meaningful contribution to BC's climate action plan. This study also revealed the conflicts between a demand-driven bioeconomy and targeted environmental outcomes. A hierarchical incentive system that could co-exist with other market drivers may help achieve emission reduction goals, but this would require a better quantitative understanding of wood products' substitution effects. While the analyses were conducted for BC, other regions that are net exporters of wood products may face similar issues.

Temporally-differentiated biogenic carbon accounting of wood building product life cycles.

Although standards have identified temporary carbon storage as an important element to consider in wood product LCAs, there has been no consensus on a methodology for its accounting. This work aims to improve the accounting of carbon storage and fluxes in long-life wood products in LCA. Biogenic carbon from harvested roundwood logs were tracked using the Carbon Budget Model Framework for Harvested Wood Products (CBMF-HWP). Carbon flows through wood product manufacturing, building life and end-of-life phases, and carbon stocks and fluxes from harvest to the atmosphere were estimated. To cover the products commonly used in the Canadian building industry, a range of softwood products types, provinces and territories and building lifetimes were considered. In addition, policy scenarios were considered in order to model the effects of dynamic parameters through time as a policy target is reached. Most wood products have similar emissions profiles, though cross-laminated timber has higher sawmill emissions and oriented-strand board has higher initial post-demolition emissions. The region of construction is also predictive of the initial post-demolition emissions. Higher recycling rates shift materials from landfills into subsequent product systems, thus avoiding landfill emissions. Landfill decay rates are affected by climate and results in a large range of landfill emissions. The degree of postponement of end-of-life emissions is highly dependent upon the wood product type, region and building lifespan parameters. This work develops biogenic carbon profiles that allows for modelling dynamic cradle-to-grave LCAs of Canadian wood products. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s42452-020-03979-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Natural climate solutions for Canada.

Alongside the steep reductions needed in fossil fuel emissions, natural climate solutions (NCS) represent readily deployable options that can contribute to Canada's goals for emission reductions. We estimate the mitigation potential of 24 NCS related to the protection, management, and restoration of natural systems that can also deliver numerous co-benefits, such as enhanced soil productivity, clean air and water, and biodiversity conservation. NCS can provide up to 78.2 (41.0 to 115.1) Tg CO2e/year (95% CI) of mitigation annually in 2030 and 394.4 (173.2 to 612.4) Tg CO2e cumulatively between 2021 and 2030, with 34% available at ≤CAD 50/Mg CO2e. Avoided conversion of grassland, avoided peatland disturbance, cover crops, and improved forest management offer the largest mitigation opportunities. The mitigation identified here represents an important potential contribution to the Paris Agreement, such that NCS combined with existing mitigation plans could help Canada to meet or exceed its climate goals.

Implications of differing input data sources and approaches upon forest carbon stock estimation.

Site index is an important forest inventory attribute that relates productivity and growth expectation of forests over time. In forest inventory programs, site index is used in conjunction with other forest inventory attributes (i.e., height, age) for the estimation of stand volume. In turn, stand volumes are used to estimate biomass (and biomass components) and enable conversion to carbon. In this research, we explore the implications and consequences of different estimates of site index on carbon stock characterization for a 2,500-ha Douglas-fir-dominated landscape located on Eastern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We compared site index estimates from an existing forest inventory to estimates generated from a combination of forest inventory and light detection and ranging (LIDAR)-derived attributes and then examined the resultant differences in biomass estimates generated from a carbon budget model (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)). Significant differences were found between the original and LIDAR-derived site indices for all species types and for the resulting 5-m site classes (p < 0.001). The LIDAR-derived site class was greater than the original site class for 42% of stands; however, 77% of stands were within +/-1 site class of the original class. Differences in biomass estimates between the model scenarios were significant for both total stand biomass and biomass per hectare (p < 0.001); differences for Douglas-fir-dominated stands (representing 85% of all stands) were not significant (p = 0.288). Overall, the relationship between the two biomass estimates was strong (R(2) = 0.92, p < 0.001), suggesting that in certain circumstances, LIDAR may have a role to play in site index estimation and biomass mapping.

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests.

BACKGROUND: The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013-2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) "forest reference level", which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model. RESULTS: Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013-2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110-120 Mt CO2/year (capped at 70-80 Mt CO2/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000-2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000-2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests. CONCLUSIONS: Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

A systems approach to assess climate change mitigation options in landscapes of the United States forest sector.

BACKGROUND: United States forests can contribute to national strategies for greenhouse gas reductions. The objective of this work was to evaluate forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios from 2018 to 2050 by applying a systems-based approach that accounts for net emissions across four interdependent components: (1) forest ecosystem, (2) land-use change, (3) harvested wood products, and (4) substitution benefits from using wood products and bioenergy. We assessed a range of land management and harvested wood product scenarios for two case studies in the U.S: coastal South Carolina and Northern Wisconsin. We integrated forest inventory and remotely-sensed disturbance data within a modelling framework consisting of a growth-and-yield driven ecosystem carbon model; a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions from commodity production, use and post-consumer treatment; and displacement factors to estimate avoided fossil fuel emissions. We estimated biophysical mitigation potential by comparing net emissions from land management and harvested wood products scenarios with a baseline ('business as usual') scenario. RESULTS: Baseline scenario results showed that the strength of the ecosystem carbon sink has been decreasing in the two sites due to age-related productivity declines and deforestation. Mitigation activities have the potential to lessen or delay the further reduction in the carbon sink. Results of the mitigation analysis indicated that scenarios reducing net forest area loss were most effective in South Carolina, while extending harvest rotations and increasing longer-lived wood products were most effective in Wisconsin. Scenarios aimed at increasing bioenergy use either increased or reduced net emissions within the 32-year analysis timeframe. CONCLUSIONS: It is critical to apply a systems approach to comprehensively assess net emissions from forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios. Although some scenarios produced a benefit by displacing emissions from fossil fuel energy or by substituting wood products for other materials, these benefits can be outweighed by increased carbon emissions in the forest or product systems. Maintaining forests as forests, extending rotations, and shifting commodities to longer-lived products had the strongest mitigation benefits over several decades. Carbon cycle impacts of bioenergy depend on timeframe, feedstocks, and alternative uses of biomass, and cannot be assumed carbon neutral.

Delineating managed land for reporting national greenhouse gas emissions and removals to the United Nations framework convention on climate change.

Land use and management activities have a substantial impact on carbon stocks and associated greenhouse gas emissions and removals. However, it is challenging to discriminate between anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic sources and sinks from land. To address this problem, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change developed a managed land proxy to determine which lands are contributing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Governments report all emissions and removals from managed land to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change based on this proxy, and policy interventions to reduce emissions from land use are expected to focus on managed lands. Our objective was to review the use of the managed land proxy, and summarize the criteria that governments have applied to classify land as managed and unmanaged. We found that the large majority of governments are not reporting on their application of the managed land proxy. Among the governments that do provide information, most have assigned all area in specific land uses as managed, while designating all remaining lands as unmanaged. This designation as managed land is intuitive for croplands and settlements, which would not exist without management interventions, but a portion of forest land, grassland, and wetlands may not be managed in a country. Consequently, Brazil, Canada and the United States have taken the concept further and delineated managed and unmanaged forest land, grassland and wetlands, using additional criteria such as functional use of the land and accessibility of the land to anthropogenic activity. The managed land proxy is imperfect because reported emissions from any area can include non-anthropogenic sources, such as natural disturbances. However, the managed land proxy does make reporting of GHG emissions and removals from land use more tractable and comparable by excluding fluxes from areas that are not directly influenced by anthropogenic activity. Moreover, application of the managed land proxy can be improved by incorporating additional criteria that allow for further discrimination between managed and unmanaged land.

Mapping the environmental limitations to growth of coastal Douglas-fir stands on Vancouver Island, British Columbia.

Coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii spp. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) occurs over a wide range of environmental conditions on Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Although ecological zones have been drawn, no formal spatial analysis of environmental limitations on tree growth has been carried out. Such an exercise is desirable to identify areas that may warrant intensive management and to evaluate the impacts of predicted climate change this century. We applied a physiologically based forest growth model, 3-PG (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth), to interpret and map current limitations to Douglas-fir growth across Vancouver Island at 100-m cell resolution. We first calibrated the model to reproduce the regional productivity estimates reported in yield table growth curves. Further analyses indicated that slope exposure is important; southwest slopes of 30 degrees receive 40% more incident radiation than similarly inclined northeast slopes. When combined with other environmental differences associated with aspect, the model predicted 60% more growth on southwest exposures than on northeast exposures. The model simulations support field observations that drought is rare in the wetter zones, but common on the eastern side of Vancouver Island at lower elevations and on more exposed slopes. We illustrate the current limitations on growth caused by suboptimal temperature, high vapor pressure deficits and other factors. The modeling approach complements ecological classifications and offers the potential to identify the most favorable sites for management of other native tree species under current and future climatic conditions.

Improving carbon monitoring and reporting in forests using spatially-explicit information.

BACKGROUND: Understanding and quantifying carbon (C) exchanges between the biosphere and the atmosphere-specifically the process of C removal from the atmosphere, and how this process is changing-is the basis for developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. Monitoring forest systems and reporting on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals are now required components of international efforts aimed at mitigating rising atmospheric GHG. Spatially-explicit information about forests can improve the estimates of GHG emissions and removals. However, at present, remotely-sensed information on forest change is not commonly integrated into GHG reporting systems. New, detailed (30-m spatial resolution) forest change products derived from satellite time series informing on location, magnitude, and type of change, at an annual time step, have recently become available. Here we estimate the forest GHG balance using these new Landsat-based change data, a spatial forest inventory, and develop yield curves as inputs to the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to estimate GHG emissions and removals at a 30 m resolution for a 13 Mha pilot area in Saskatchewan, Canada. RESULTS: Our results depict the forests as cumulative C sink (17.98 Tg C or 0.64 Tg C year-1) between 1984 and 2012 with an average C density of 206.5 (±0.6) Mg C ha-1. Comparisons between our estimates and estimates from Canada's National Forest Carbon Monitoring, Accounting and Reporting System (NFCMARS) were possible only on a subset of our study area. In our simulations the area was a C sink, while the official reporting simulations, it was a C source. Forest area and overall C stock estimates also differ between the two simulated estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Both estimates have similar uncertainties, but the spatially-explicit results we present here better quantify the potential improvement brought on by spatially-explicit modelling. We discuss the source of the differences between these estimates. This study represents an important first step towards the integration of spatially-explicit information into Canada's NFCMARS.

Modelling forest carbon stock changes as affected by harvest and natural disturbances. II. EU-level analysis.

BACKGROUND: Forests and the forest sector may play an important role in mitigating climate change. The Paris Agreement and the recent legislative proposal to include the land use sector in the EU 2030 climate targets reflect this expectation. However, greater confidence on estimates from national greenhouse gas inventories (GHGI) and more comprehensive analyses of mitigation options are needed to seize this mitigation potential. The aim of this paper is to provide a tool at EU level for verifying the EU GHGI and for simulating specific policy and forest management scenarios. Therefore, the Carbon Budget Model (CBM) was applied for an integrated assessment of the EU forest carbon (C) balance from 2000 to 2012, including: (i) estimates of the C stock and net CO2 emissions for forest management (FM), afforestation/reforestation (AR) and deforestation (D), covering carbon in both the forest and the harvest wood product (HWP) pools; (ii) an overall analysis of the C dynamics associated with harvest and natural disturbances (mainly storms and fires); (iii) a comparison of our estimates with the data reported in the EU GHGI. RESULTS: Overall, the average annual FM sink (-365 Mt CO2 year-1) estimated by the CBM in the period 2000-2012 corresponds to about 7 % of total GHG emissions at the EU level for the same period (excluding land use, land-use change and forestry). The HWP pool sink (-44 Mt CO2 year-1) contributes an additional 1 %. Emissions from D (about 33 Mt CO2 year-1) are more than compensated by the sink in AR (about 43 Mt CO2 year-1 over the period). For FM, the estimates from the CBM were about 8 % lower than the EU GHGI, a value well within the typical uncertainty range of the EU forest sink estimates. For AR and D the match with the EU GHGI was nearly perfect (difference <±2 % in the period 2008-2012). Our analysis on harvest and natural disturbances shows that: (i) the impact of harvest is much greater than natural disturbances but, because of salvage logging (often very relevant), the impact of natural disturbances is often not easily distinguishable from the impact of harvest, and (ii) the impact of storms on the biomass C stock is 5-10 times greater than fires, but while storms cause only indirect emissions (i.e., a transfer of C from living biomass to dead organic matter), fires cause both direct and indirect emissions. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents the application of a consistent methodological approach, based on an inventory-based model, adapted to the forest management conditions of EU countries. The approach captures, with satisfactory detail, the C sink reported in the EU GHGI and the country-specific variability due to harvest, natural disturbances and land-use changes. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive study of its kind at EU level, i.e., including all the forest pools, HWP and natural disturbances, and a comparison with the EU GHGI. The results provide the basis for possible future policy-relevant applications of this model, e.g., as a tool to support GHGIs (e.g., on accounting for natural disturbances) and to verify the EU GHGI, and for the simulation of specific scenarios at EU level.