Changing epidemiology of maternal mortality in rural India: time to reset strategies for MDG-5.

OBJECTIVE: To understand changes in epidemiology of maternal mortality in rural India in the context of increasing institutional deliveries and implementation of community-based interventions that can inform policies to reach MDG-5. METHODS: This study is a secondary analysis of prospectively collected community-based data of every pregnancy and its outcomes from 2002 to 2011 in a rural, tribal area of Gujarat, India as part of safe-motherhood programme implemented by voluntary organisation, SEWA Rural. The programme consisted of community-based interventions supported by a first referral unit, and promotion of institutional deliveries. For every maternal death, a verbal autopsy was conducted. The incidence rates for maternal mortality according to place, cause and timing of maternal deaths in relation to pregnancy were computed. Annual incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for caste and maternal education, were estimated using Poisson regression to test for linear trend in reduction in mortality during the study period. RESULTS: Thirty-two thousand eight hundred and ninety-three pregnancies, 29,817 live births and 80 maternal deaths were recorded. Maternal mortality ratio improved from 607 (19 deaths) in 2002-2003 to 161 (five deaths) in 2010-2011. The institutional delivery rate increased from 23% to 65%. The trend of falling maternal deaths was significant over time, with an annual reduction of 17% (adjusted IRR 0.83 CI 0.75-0.91, P-value <0.001). There were significant reductions in adjusted incidence rate of maternal deaths due to direct causes, during intrapartum and post-partum periods, and those which occurred at home. However, reductions in incidence of maternal deaths due to indirect causes, at hospital and during antepartum period were not statistically significant. Most maternal deaths are now occurring at hospitals and due to indirect causes. CONCLUSION: Gains in institutional deliveries and community-based interventions resulting in fewer maternal deaths due to direct causes should be maintained. However, it would be essential to now prioritize management of indirect causes of maternal mortality during pregnancy at community and hospitals for further reduction in maternal deaths to achieve MDG-5.

Estimating under-reporting of COVID-19 cases in Indian states: an approach using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has spread to all states in India. Due to limitations in testing coverage, the true extent of the spread may not be fully reflected in the reported cases. In this study, we obtain time-varying estimates of the fraction of COVID-19 infections reported in the different states. METHODS: Following a methodology developed in prior work, we use a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate the true fraction of cases reported in different states. We also develop a delay adjusted test positivity estimation method and study the relationship between the estimated test positivity rate for each state and the estimated fraction of cases reported. SETTING: We apply this method of analysis to all Indian states reporting at least 100 deaths as of 10 October 2020. RESULTS: Our analysis suggests that delay-adjusted case fatality ratios observed in different states range from 0.47% to 3.55%. The estimated fraction of cases reported in different states ranges from 39% to 100% for an assumed baseline case fatality ratio of 1.38%, from 18.6% to 100% for an assumed baseline case fatality ratio of 0.66%, and from 2.8% to 19.7% for an assumed baseline case fatality ratio of 0.1%. We also demonstrate a statistically significant negative relationship between the fraction of cases reported in each state and the testing positivity rate. CONCLUSIONS: The estimates provide a means to quantify and compare the trends of reporting and the true level of current infections in different states. This information may be used to guide policies for prioritising testing in different states, and also to analyse the time-varying effects of different quarantine measures adopted in different states.

Prevalence of risk factors of non-communicable diseases in Kerala, India: results of a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors in Kerala. DESIGN: A community-based, cross-sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS: In 2016-2017 a multistage, cluster sample of 12 012 (aged 18-69 years) participants from all 14 districts of Kerala were studied. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: NCD risk factors as stipulated in the WHO's approach to NCD risk factors surveillance were studied. Parameters that were studied included physical activity score, anthropometry, blood pressure (BP), and fasting blood glucose (FBG) and morning urine sample to estimate dietary intake of salt. RESULTS: The mean age was 42.5 years (SD=14.8). Abdominal obesity was higher in women (72.6%; 95% CI 70.7 to 74.5) compared with men (39.1%; 95% CI 36.6 to 41.7), and also higher among urban (67.4%; 95% CI 65.0 to 69.7) compared with rural (58.6%; 95% CI 56.6 to 60.5) residents. Current use of tobacco and alcohol in men was 20.3% (95% CI 18.6 to 22.1) and 28.9% (95% CI 26.5 to 31.4), respectively. The estimated daily salt intake was 6.7 g/day. The overall prevalence of raised BP was 30.4% (95% CI 29.1 to 31.7) and raised FBG was 19.2% (95% CI 18.1 to 20.3). Raised BP was higher in men (34.6%; 95% CI 32.6 to 36.7) compared with women (28%; 95% CI 26.4 to 29.4), but was not different between urban (33.1%; 95% CI 31.3 to 34.9) and rural (29.8%; 95% CI 28.3 to 31.3) residents. Only 12.4% of individuals with hypertension and 15.3% of individuals with diabetes were found to have these conditions under control. Only 13.8% of urban and 18.4% of rural residents did not have any of the seven NCD risk factors studied. CONCLUSION: Majority of the participants had more than one NCD risk factor. There was no rural-urban difference in terms of raised BP or raised FBG prevalence in Kerala. The higher rates of NCD risk factors and lower rates of hypertension and diabetes control call for concerted primary and secondary prevention strategies to address the future burden of NCDs.

Risk factors of post-traumatic stress disorder in tsunami survivors of Kanyakumari District, Tamil Nadu, India.

CONTEXT: In this study, we assessed the relation of possible risk factors with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the survivors of December 2004 tsunami in Kanyakumari district. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified cases (n=158) and controls (n=141) by screening a random sample of 485 tsunami survivors from June 2005 to October 2005 using a validated tool, "Impact of events scale-revised (IES-R)," for symptoms suggestive of PTSD. Subjects whose score was equal to or above the 70(th) percentile (total score 48) were cases and those who had score below or equal to 30(th) percentile (total score 33) were controls. Analysis was done using statistical package for the social sciences to find the risk factors of PTSD among various pre-disaster, within-disaster and post-disaster factors. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that PTSD was related to female gender [odds ratio (OR) 6.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.26-12.39], age 40 years and above (OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.23-4.63), injury to self (OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.55-5.67), injury to family members (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.05-4.15), residence in urban area (area of maximum destruction) (OR 3.37, 95% CI 1.35-8.41) and death of close relatives (OR 3.83, 95% CI 1.91-7.68). Absence of fear of recurrence of tsunami (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.17-0.60), satisfaction of services received (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.36-0.92) and counseling services received more than three times (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.78) had protective effect against PTSD. CONCLUSIONS: There is an association of pre-disaster, within-disaster and post-disaster factors with PTSD, which demands specific interventions at all phases of disaster, with a special focus on vulnerable groups.