Incidence of Type 2 diabetes among occupational classes in Sweden: a 35-year follow-up cohort study in middle-aged men.

AIMS: To assess if low occupational class was an independent predictor of Type 2 diabetes in men in Sweden over a 35-year follow-up, after adjustment for both conventional risk factors and psychological stress. METHODS: A random population-based sample of 6874 men aged 47-56 years without a history of diabetes was divided into five occupational classes and the men were followed from 1970 to 2008. Diabetes cases were identified through the Swedish inpatient and death registers. Subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% CIs from competing risk regressions, cumulative incidence and conditional probabilities were calculated, after accounting for the risk of death attributed to other causes. RESULTS: A total of 907 (13%) men with diabetes were identified over 35 years with a median follow-up of 27.9 years. The cumulative incidence of diabetes, when taking into account death as a competing event, was 11% in high officials, 12% in intermediate non-manual employees, 14% in assistant non-manual employees, 14% in skilled workers, and 16% in unskilled and semi-skilled workers. Men with unskilled and semi-skilled manual occupations had a significantly higher risk of diabetes than high officials (reference) after adjustment for age, BMI, hypertension, smoking and physical activity (SHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.08-1.78). Additional adjustment for self-reported psychological stress did not attenuate the results. CONCLUSIONS: A low occupational class suggests a greater risk of Type 2 diabetes, independently of conventional risk factors and psychological stress.

Increasing evidence-based treatments to reduce coronary heart disease mortality in Sweden: quantifying the potential gains.

OBJECTIVES: Between 1986 and 2002, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Sweden fell by more than 50%. Approximately one-third (4800 fewer deaths) of this decline in age-adjusted CHD mortality could be attributed to treatments in patients with CHD and primary prevention medications. High treatment levels were achieved in some cases, but in others, only 50-80% of eligible patients received appropriate therapy. We therefore examined to what extent increasing the use of specific treatments in eligible patients might have reduced CHD mortality rates in Sweden. DESIGN AND METHODS: We used the previously validated IMPACT CHD model to combine data on CHD patient numbers, medical and surgical uptake levels and treatment effectiveness. We estimated the number of deaths prevented or postponed for 2002 (baseline scenario) and for an alternative scenario (if at least 60% of eligible patients were treated). RESULTS: If treatments were increased to consistently cover at least 60% of eligible patients, approximately 8900 deaths could have been postponed or prevented, representing a potential gain of approximately 4100 fewer deaths than actually occurred in 2002. Approximately 45% of the 4100 gain would have come from primary prevention with statins, 23% from acute coronary syndrome treatments, 15% from secondary prevention therapies and 15% from treatments for heart failure. CONCLUSION: Increasing the proportion of eligible patients with CHD who receive evidence-based treatment could have resulted in approximately 4100 fewer deaths in 2002, almost doubling the actual mortality reduction. These findings further emphasize the importance of aggressively identifying and treating patients with CHD and high-risk individuals.

Increased fracture frequency in adult patients with hypopituitarism and GH deficiency.

Fracture frequency was studied in 107 hypopituitary patients with GH deficiency (GHD) (69 men, mean age 53 years, range 18-74 and 38 women, mean age 54 years, range 31-73). Routine hormonal replacement therapy was given, except GH. Five male patients and 15 female patients with untreated hypogonadism were allocated to a separate group. The mean duration of hypopituitarism was 13.4 years. The prevalence of a history of fractures was assessed using questionnaires. A subsample of the Göteborg WHO MONICA Project was used as a reference population (n = 323). The total fracture frequency was threefold higher (P < 0.001) in patients (24.1%) compared with controls (8.7%) (odds ratio 3.49) (1.85-6.56; 95% confidence intervals). In men (n = 64) the fracture frequency was 25.0%, compared with 7.8% among the controls (P < 0.001). In women (n = 23) the fracture frequency was 21.7%, compared with 9.5% among the controls (P = 0.08). The odds ratios for fracture frequency were 3.97 (1.81-8.40; 95% confidence intervals) and 2.64 (0.89-7.81; 95% confidence intervals) in men and women respectively. In conclusion, adult hypopituitary patients with GHD had a threefold increased fracture frequency compared with controls. Further studies are needed to ascertain whether long-term recombinant human GH treatment can reduce the fracture rate in hypopituitary patients with GHD.

Effect of ethanol and sodium arsenite on HSP-72 formation and on survival in a murine endotoxin model.

Recently, investigators reported that prophylactic hyperthermia and induction of heat shock proteins (HSPs) decreased mortality from endotoxin. Although the mechanism by which hyperthermia protects is unknown, two possible etiologies are induction of HSPs and/or production of cytokines, interleukin-1 alpha (IL-1 alpha) or tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha). The purpose of this study was to determine if in vivo administration of sodium arsenite (NaAsO2) or ethanol, inducers of HSPs in isolated cells, induced HSP-72 production in lung, liver, kidney, and duodenum (organs known to induce HSP-72 by heat) and improved survival from endotoxin. Female ND4 mice were injected intraperitoneally with either NaAsO2 (5.25 mg/kg body weight) or ethanol (4.0 g/kg), immediately, 8 or 18 h prior to Escherichia coli endotoxin injection (20 mg/kg). Both compounds improved short-term (24 h) survival twofold (p < .01), but failed to improve long-term (7 days) survival. Simultaneous injection of ethanol with endotoxin improved both short-term survival twofold (p < .01), and long-term survival 5-fold (p < .001). Ethanol induced HSP-72 in kidney, 50% that of the standard (i.e., pooled livers isolated from heat-treated mice); NaAsO2 induced HSP-72 in kidney (approximately 50% of standard) and liver (approximately 21% of standard). Neither ethanol nor NaAsO2 alone increased circulating concentrations of IL-1 alpha or TNF-alpha. However, ethanol given concurrently with endotoxin produced a significant decrease in TNF-alpha compared to endotoxin alone (p < .01).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Calcium antagonists decrease plasma and tissue concentrations of tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukin-1 beta, and interleukin-1 alpha in a mouse model of endotoxin.

Calcium plays an important role in the toxic effects of endotoxin, and calcium antagonists also have been shown to improve survival in animals challenged with endotoxin. Calcium may be involved in regulating cytokine production. Therefore, the protective effect of calcium-antagonists in endotoxin may be due to decreased cytokine formation and/or systemic release. In a mouse model of endotoxin, dantrolene (10 mg/kg) and azumolene (20 mg/kg), drugs that decrease calcium release from intracellular stores, or diltiazem (20 mg/kg), a calcium channel blocker, decreased plasma tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin-1 alpha (IL-1 alpha), and IL-1 beta (47.2, 63.2, and 62.4%, respectively, p < .05) when the animals were injected intraperitoneally with endotoxin. Dantrolene and azumolene decreased IL-1 alpha by 56.6 and 65.4%, respectively, (p < .05) and IL-1 beta by 51.7 and 69.7%, respectively (p < .05). Diltiazem had no effect on IL-1 alpha or IL-1 beta. Dantrolene decreased TNF-alpha in lung (26.1%), liver (29.4%), and spleen (35.4%) (p < .05) and IL-1 alpha in lung (30.0%) and liver (25.4%) (p < .05). The present findings indicate that calcium-antagonists may be efficacious in treating cytokine mediated inflammatory disorders.

Swallowing dysfunction after cardiac operations. Associated adverse outcomes and risk factors including intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography.

The frequency, importance to patient outcomes, and independent predictors of postoperative swallowing dysfunction documented by barium cineradiography were examined in 869 patients undergoing cardiac operations over a 12-month period. Swallowing dysfunction was diagnosed in 34 patients (4% incidence) and was associated with documented pulmonary aspiration in 90% of these patients, increased frequency of pneumonia (p < 0.0001), need for tracheostomy (p = 0.0002), length of stay in the intensive care unit (p = 0.0001), and duration of hospitalization after the operation (p = 0.0001). Independent predictors of postoperative swallowing dysfunction determined by multivariate logistic regression included age (p < 0.001), length of tracheal intubation after the operation (p = 0.001), and intraoperative use of transesophageal echocardiography (p = 0.003). Dysfunctional swallowing after cardiac operations, a serious complication significantly related to postoperative respiratory morbidity and extended length of hospitalization, is more common in older patients. An association between intraoperative use of transesophageal echocardiography and swallowing dysfunction was also observed in our patients.

Sunlight increases serum 25(OH) vitamin D concentration whereas 1,25(OH)2D3 is unaffected. Results from a general population study in Göteborg, Sweden (The WHO MONICA Project).

OBJECTIVE: To determine serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3] and its 1-hydroxylated metabolite [1,25(OH)2D3] and relate them to anthropometric data, life-style habits, blood pressure and selected biochemical analytes. DESIGN: Random population samples of men and women. SETTING: Göteborg, Sweden, population size 450,000 inhabitants. The study was performed within the framework of the WHO MONICA Project. SUBJECTS: 2000 randomly selected subjects were invited to the main MONICA screening. Out of those 1421 (71%) participated. Fifty individuals in each of four age-groups, 25-64 years, were selected at random for the present analyses (184 men and 198 women). RESULTS: The concentration of 25(OH)D3 was similar in both sexes whereas 1,25(OH)2D3 concentration was higher in women than in men (P = 0.01). 25(OH)D3 correlated positively to sun exposure, physical activity and negatively to intact parathyroid hormone (PTH) in both sexes, and also negatively to blood pressure in men. The remaining significant relationship for 25(OH)D3, when age and sun exposure were taken into account in multivariate analyses, was a negative correlation to intact PTH in both sexes. 1,25(OH)2D3 correlated positively to intact PTH in both men and women, negatively to height in men, positively to fibrinogen in men and positively to psychological stress and osteocalcin in women. When all variables were included in multivariate analyses 1,25(OH)2D3 concentration correlated negatively to age and positively to intact PTH and osteocalcin in both sexes together. CONCLUSIONS: Sunlight was the only external factor that influenced 25(OH)D3 concentration whereas 1,25(OH)2D3 was unaffected by sun exposure. 1,25(OH)2D3 was not related to environmental or life style factors but declined by age and correlated positively to intact PTH and osteocalcin. SPONSORSHIP: Grants from the Swedish Medical Research Council and the Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation.

Prevalence of left ventricular diastolic filling abnormalities in adult cardiac surgical patients: an intraoperative echocardiographic study.

The incidence of left ventricular (LV) diastolic abnormalities in adult cardiac surgical patients has not previously been adequately investigated. The present study was performed to characterize LV diastolic filling patterns by performing transesophageal Doppler echocardiographic (TEE) studies in patients undergoing cardiac surgical procedures and thus indirectly assess diastolic function in these patients. Doppler TEE studies were performed and transmitral flow (TMF) and pulmonary venous flow (PVF) velocities were recorded in 104 patients intraoperatively. Peak early (E) and late (A) TMF velocities and systolic (S) and diastolic (D) forward PVF velocities were assessed and deceleration time (DT) was measured in all patients. For analysis, the study patients were classified into three groups according to the ratio of the TMF E to A velocity curves: group I with E/A ratio less than 1.0, group II with E/A ratio of 1.0 to less than 2.0, and group III with E/A ratio of 2.0 or greater. A filling pattern of abnormal LV relaxation was found in 73 patients (E/A < 1.0), a normal or pseudonormal pattern was present in 27 patients (1.0 < or = E/A < or = 2.0), and restrictive filling in 4 patients (E/A > 2.0). Patients with impaired relaxation had a greater incidence of recent myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure (CHF) than those with normal or pseudonormal filling patterns. Within group II, patients with CHF had higher TMF E deceleration rates and lower PVF S/D ratios compared with those without CHF (P < .05). Doppler echocardiographic examination of TMF and PVF velocities suggests that abnormalities in diastolic function are prevalent in adult cardiac surgical patients.

"Nonspecific" chest pain associated with high long-term mortality: results from the primary prevention study in Göteborg, Sweden.

BACKGROUND: The syndrome angina pectoris with effort-related chest pain or discomfort is usually easy to recognize. However, vague and nonspecific symptoms may cause little reason for extensive evaluation. The prognosis of such patients in the general population has so far not been well described. HYPOTHESIS: The study was undertaken to investigate long-term prognosis in men with chest pain considered to be nonspecific in comparison with men with typical angina pectoris (AP) or prior myocardial infarction (MI), and men without chest pain. METHODS: At the second screening of the Göteborg Primary Prevention Study in 1974-1977, 6,488 men aged 51 to 59 years at baseline were available for the present analysis. Men who had responded positively to a postal questionnaire about chest pain during exercise or at rest were interviewed by a physician according to a Rose questionnaire at the screening examination. Those with typical or probable AP were further examined by single experienced physician. The following four groups were formed: Group 1: men who did not complain of chest pain (n = 5,545). Group 2: men who had not consulted any doctor because of chest pain, but who had chest pain according to a questionnaire (n = 441); these men were not considered to have AP according to a three-step examination by experienced physicians. Group 3: typical AP (n = 232). Group 4: men who had suffered an MI (n = 134). RESULTS: During 16 years of follow-up, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality for Groups 1-4 was 8.0, 19.5, 24.8, and 48.5%, respectively. Mortality from all cardiovascular diseases was 11.5, 24.5, 31.2, and 59.0%, respectively. Noncardiovascular disease mortality was 14.1, 17.7, 14.3, and 8.7%, respectively. Thus, the relative risk (RR) for CHD mortality among men with nonspecific chest pain (Group 2) was 2.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.20, 3.50], for all cardiovascular disease mortality 2.46 (95% CI 2.00, 3.02), and for noncardiovascular disease mortality 1.60 (95% CI 1.28, 2.00). Total mortality in this group was as high (44%) as among those with typical AP (45%), but the highest mortality was found among men with a previous MI (68%). In men without chest pain it was 26%. Patients of Groups 2-4 had higher levels of cardiovascular risk factors than those in Group 1. Neither any specific questions in the Rose questionnaire, nor electrocardiographic changes at rest (uncommon) were of prognostic significance. Serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and smoking were significant predictors of outcome, both with respect to fatal CHD and to total mortality during the 16-year follow-up. CONCLUSION: We found a high cardiovascular as well as noncardiovascular mortality among patients with chest pain who had not been considered to have AP at a three-step examination procedure. It is important to be suspicious of early CHD symptoms in men (and women?) with "nonspecific" chest symptoms and to analyze their cardiovascular risk factor pattern further because they are at considerably higher risk for future events than those in whom CHD is not suspected.

[Prognosis is often poor in chest pain not interpreted as angina pectoris. Simultaneous occurrence of cardiovascular risk factors increases the risk of premature death]. / Prognosen ofta dålig vid bröstsmärta som inte tolkas som angina pectoris. Samtidig förekomst av kardiovaskulära riskfaktorer ökar risken för förtidig död.

BACKGROUND: Typical angina pectoris is easy to recognize, but coronary insufficiency may present with nonspecific chest discomfort. AIMS OF STUDY: We wanted to investigate long-term prognosis in men with different types of chest pain. METHODS: A random population sample comprising 5,773 men aged 51-57 years at baseline were followed for 16 years. RESULTS: Mortality due to coronary heart disease was 8.0% among men without chest pain, 19.5% (total mortality 44%) among those with non-specific chest pain, 24.8% (total mortality 45%) among those with typical angina and 48.5% among those with a history of myocardial infarction at baseline. CONCLUSION: Non-specific chest pain is associated with poor prognosis, and coronary risk factors have strong predictive value.

Trends in mortality after first hospitalization with atrial fibrillation diagnosis in Sweden 1987 to 2006.

BACKGROUND: To examine trends in 3-year mortality after a first hospitalization with diagnosed atrial fibrillation in a large cohort with and without important comorbidities. METHODS: The Swedish Hospital Discharge and Cause of Death Registries were linked to investigate trends in mortality for all patients 35 to 84 years hospitalized for the first time with a discharge diagnosis (principal or contributory) of atrial fibrillation in Sweden during 1987 to 2006.We performed an analysis of temporal trends in mortality stratified for presence or absence of co-morbidities affecting survival. RESULTS: Exactly 376,000 patients (56% male, mean age 72 years) with a first diagnosis of atrial fibrillation during 1987­2006 were identified and followed for 3 years. Patients with one or more of the prespecified comorbidities had the highest mortality and the largest absolute decline in mortality, but patients without these comorbidities had a slightly larger relative decline (absolute risk reduction in 3-year mortality (AAR) from 42.5 to 34.7%, Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.76; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.74 to 0.77 versus ARR 16.2% to 11.7%, HR 0.71; 0.68 to 0.74. In patients aged below 65 years,with no comorbidities, there was minimal change inmortality, and they still had a 2 times increased mortality compared to the general population (SMR 1.95; 1.84-2.06). CONCLUSIONS: Survival after a first hospitalization with a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation improved regardless comorbidities. Patients aged < 65 years old without diagnosed comorbidities still had a poor prognosis compared to the general population.

Twenty-year trends in incidence and 1-year mortality in Swedish patients hospitalised with non-AMI chest pain. Data from 1987-2006 from the Swedish hospital and death registries.

OBJECTIVE: To study trends for 20 years in incidence and 1-year mortality in hospitalised patients who received a diagnosis of either angina or unexplained chest pain (UCP) in Sweden. DESIGN AND SETTING: Register study of all patients aged 25-84 years identified from the Swedish National Hospital Discharge Register who were hospitalised with a first-time diagnosis of UCP or angina pectoris during 1987 to 2006. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 378 454 patients, 235 855 with UCP and 142 599 with angina. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 1-Year mortality and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). RESULTS: From the period 1987-1991 to 2002-2006, the observed 1-year mortality rate in men and women with UCP aged 25-74 years decreased from 2.19% to 1.45% and from 1.85% to 0.91%, respectively. SMRs decreased from 1.67 (95% CI 1.39 to 1.95) and 1.63 (1.27 to 2.00) to 1.09 (0.96 to 1.23) and 0.88 (0.75 to 1.00). Corresponding decreases in 1-year mortality for a discharge diagnosis of angina were from 6.50% to 2.49% in men and from 4.80% to 1.68% in women, with SMRs decreasing from 2.69 (2.33-3.05) and 2.59 (2.06-3.12) to 1.09 (0.93-1.25) and 1.05 (0.81-1.29), respectively. Similar changes occurred in patients aged 75-84 years. Only men with UCP aged 75-84 years still retained a slightly increased mortality (SMR 1.14 (1.01-1.28)). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of patients admitted with chest pain in which acute myocardial infarction has been ruled out has improved for the past 20 years, such that the 1-year mortality of these patients is now similar to that in the general population.

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154,012 participants in 31 cohorts

Trends in overweight and obesity from 1985 to 2002 in Göteborg, West Sweden.

OBJECTIVE: To study secular trends in overweight and selected correlates in men and women in Göteborg, Sweden. DESIGN: Cross-sequential population-based surveys. SUBJECTS: A total of 2931 female and 2691 male subjects aged 25-64 y participated in WHO MONICA surveys (1985, 1990, 1995) and the INTERGENE study (2002). MEASUREMENTS: Body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), prevalence of overweight (BMI> or =25 kg/m(2)), and obesity (BMI> or =30 kg/m(2)). RESULTS: Mean body weight increased by 3.3 kg for women and 5 kg for men, with a significant upward trend for BMI in men but not women over the 17-y observation period. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased significantly in both sexes over the period. The largest increase was observed in men, and in women aged 25-34 y. In 2002, the prevalence of overweight was 38% in women and 58% in men, and the prevalence of obesity was 11% in women and 15% in men. No significant secular trends were observed for WHR, but there was an upward trend in prevalence of WHR>0.85 in women. A decreased prevalence of smoking in both sexes was observed together with an increase in reported leisure time physical activity. No significant secular trends were observed in rates of self-reported diabetes, although the risk of diabetes attributable to obesity was 24%. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that 25-64-y-olds in the recent survey were more overweight and obese than earlier studied MONICA participants. The increase in BMI was more pronounced in men while abdominal obesity increased principally in women. Although obesity and overweight are clearly important risk factors for type 2 diabetes, the number of diabetics remains low and any secular increase is not yet apparent.

Risk of coronary events by baseline factors during 28 years follow-up and three periods in a random population sample of men.

AIMS: To investigate the predictive value of risk factors for coronary events measured in midlife during three separate periods over a follow-up period extending through 28 years. METHODS: A total of 7437 men aged 47-55 years and free of myocardial infarction at baseline were examined. Risk of coronary events (nonfatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths) was analysed for the entire period and for 0-15, 16-21 and 22-28 years' follow-up, using age-adjusted and multiple Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Age, diabetes, elevated blood pressure and serum cholesterol were all independently associated with increased risk of coronary events for the entire 28 years as well as for each of the periods. A family history of coronary events amongst fathers, mothers and siblings was independently significant for the entire follow-up period, and the risk did not decline with extended follow-up. Effort-related chest pain was a strong and independent risk factor for the first 21 years but not thereafter. The importance of smoking decreased over time and was not significantly associated with outcome during the last period. Stress was also significant for the entire 28 years, but in selected periods only up to 21 years. Body mass index, low physical activity and low social class were inconsistently or not at all related to outcome in multiple analyses.

Hospitalizations for atrial fibrillation in the general male population: morbidity and risk factors.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the incidence, prevalence, aetiology, risk factors and prognosis of hospitalizations for atrial fibrillation. SUBJECTS: A random population sample of 7495 men aged 47-55 years was first examined in 1970-73. During follow-up until 1996 (mean 25.2 years) 754 men were hospitalized with a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: In the age groups of 55-64, 65-74 and 75-79 years, the incidence rate was 2.0, 5.8 and 17.3 per 1000 person years, and the prevalence 1.2, 4.2 and 8.0%, respectively. Definite or possible coronary heart disease was diagnosed in 46.0%, heart failure in further 20.2% and valvular heart disease or cardiomyopathy in 4.5%. In bivariate analysis adjusted for age, the following factors were significantly associated with future hospitalization for fibrillation: a family history of myocardial infarction, stroke in mother, dyspnoea at entry, alcohol abuse, high body stature and body weight, high blood pressure but not diabetes, high serum cholesterol, high heart rate, smoking, coffee consumption or psychological stress. Significant risk factors in multivariate analysis were age, odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] -1.11 (1.07, 1.16) per year, hospitalization for coronary heart disease or heart failure -6.77 (5.17, 8.87), stroke in mother - 1.49 (1.15, 1.93), high body stature -1.04 (1.03, 1.06) per cm, high body mass index (BMI) -1.07 (1.04, 1.10) per kg m(-2), as well as hypertension -1.33 (1.07, 1.65). After a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, mortality was increased by 3.3 times. CONCLUSION: In spite of a clinical association with coronary heart disease, risk factors for atrial fibrillation were only partly the same. Prevention includes avoidance of weight gain and control of blood pressure as well as prevention of myocardial infarction and heart failure.

Independent importance of psychosocial factors for prognosis after myocardial infarction.

AIMS: As a primary aim it was tested whether the 10-year prognosis after a myocardial infarction is related to psychological stress, lack of social support, anxiety, and/or depressive tendency. A secondary aim was to analyse the prognostic importance of a series of other psychosocial factors as well as interactions. METHODS: Non-selected patients aged below 65 years with a first infarction (230 men and 45 women) were followed for 10 years with 100% assessment of morbidity and cause-specific mortality. Baseline somatic and psychosocial variables were collected with the aid of standard, validated questionnaires. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, factors increasing risk for coronary mortality included female sex (hazard ratio, +/- 95% confidence interval) 2.47 (1.06, 5.71), signs of left ventricular failure 3.93 (1.87, 8.26), ventricular dysrhythmia 3 months after the infarction 5.45 (2.21, 13. 42), high depression scores 3.16 (1.38, 7.25) and lack of social support 2.75 (1.29, 5.89). All-cause mortality was significantly related to left ventricular failure, ventricular dysrhythmias, and high depression scores with borderline significance for female sex and social support. Prognosis was affected during the entire follow-up period. It was not significantly associated with age, marital status, education, extra work, mental strain at work or in the marriage, anxiety, dissatisfaction with family life, problems with children, dissatisfaction with the financial situation, life events, anger-in, irritability, type A behaviour, or health locus of control. Incidence of nonfatal infarction was not associated with any of the baseline variables. CONCLUSION: In addition to known somatic predictors of prognosis after a myocardial infarction, prognosis is strongly influenced by depression and lack of social support, but not to a series of other psychosocial factors. It is recommended to use self-reporting scales to detect prognostically important psychosocial problems.

Relative importance of improved hospital treatment and primary prevention. Results from 20 years of the Myocardial Infarction Register, Göteborg, Sweden.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse to what extent declines in incidence and mortality of coronary artery disease can be attributed to improved hospital and post-hospital treatment in contrast to how much is due to primary prevention. DESIGN: A register for non-fatal and fatal myocardial infarction and sudden coronary death registered in in-hospital as well as out-of-hospital events between 1975 and 1994. SETTING: City of Göteborg, Sweden, with 450,000 inhabitants. RESULTS: Seventy-one per cent of the decline in attacks could be attributed to a decline in first infarctions. Of the decrease in coronary deaths, 63% was due to a decline in out-of-hospital mortality. Previous registrations for myocardial infarction were considerably more common amongst people who died in hospital (29%) than amongst those who died out-of-hospital (11-16%) or who survived an infarction (11-13%). Out-of-hospital resuscitation contributed to about half of the reduction in out-of-hospital mortality. Thus, most of the decline in incidence and about half of the decline in sudden coronary deaths was due to primary preventive measures. Population data on risk factors indicate a decline of 37% between 1963 and 1995 in coronary risk amongst consecutive cohorts of 50-year-old men in the community. CONCLUSION: Out-of-hospital resuscitation, treatment in coronary care units and post-infarct treatment improved considerably, but changes in primary risk factors were also of major importance for the decline in incidence and mortality.

Coronary heart disease attack rate, incidence and mortality 1975-1994 in Göteborg, Sweden.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data from the Göteborg myocardial infarction register were used to investigate trends in attack rate, incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarction and mortality from coronary heart disease in persons aged 64 and below during the period 1975-1994. RESULTS: Myocardial infarction was defined according to strict criteria which remained the same throughout the study period. Attack rate and incidence were 3-5 times higher among men than women. The ratio of recurrent infarcts out of all attacks increased with increasing age and was 14%, 20% and 24% for men aged 35-44, 45-54, and 55-64, respectively. Corresponding rates for women were 8%, 14%, and 22%, respectively. Both attack rate and incidence decreased significantly by 2.1-3.9% per year during the study period for most age groups. The 28-day fatality rate (hospitalized as well as non-hospitalized cases) tended to decline, but significantly so only in the oldest men. The same was true for 28-day fatality among hospitalized patients. The majority of all coronary heart disease deaths occurred outside hospital in people unaware they had coronary heart disease. Mortality from coronary heart disease decreased by 2.0-6.8% per year during the study period. In-hospital treatment of myocardial infarction with intravenous beta-blockers followed by oral treatment, nitroglycerin and thrombolytics increased during the study period. Coronary surgery and angioplasty were used in less than 5% of patients during the study period, but increased substantially in 1994. CONCLUSION: Coronary heart disease and mortality in ages below 65 years are now decreasing in Sweden. Decreasing short-term mortality is almost certainly due to more efficient treatment in hospital, but as the majority of coronary heart disease deaths occur outside hospital and in people unaware they have coronary heart disease, primary prevention is still very important.