Obesity Risk-Factor Variation Based on Island Clusters: A Secondary Analysis of Indonesian Basic Health Research 2018.

Obesity has become a rising global health problem affecting quality of life for adults. The objective of this study is to describe the prevalence of obesity in Indonesian adults based on the cluster of islands. The study also aims to identify the risk factors of obesity in each island cluster. This study analyzes the secondary data of Indonesian Basic Health Research 2018. Data for this analysis comprised 618,910 adults (≥18 years) randomly selected, proportionate to the population size throughout Indonesia. We included 20 variables for the socio-demographic and obesity-related risk factors for analysis. The obesity status was defined using Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m2. Our current study defines 7 major island clusters as the unit analysis consisting of 34 provinces in Indonesia. Descriptive analysis was conducted to determine the characteristics of the population and to calculate the prevalence of obesity within the provinces in each of the island clusters. Multivariate logistic regression analyses to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) was performed using SPSS version 27. The study results show that all the island clusters have at least one province with an obesity prevalence above the national prevalence (35.4%). Six out of twenty variables, comprising four dietary factors (the consumption of sweet food, high-salt food, meat, and carbonated drinks) and one psychological factor (mental health disorders), varied across the island clusters. In conclusion, there was a variation of obesity prevalence of the provinces within and between island clusters. The variation of risk factors found in each island cluster suggests that a government rethink of the current intervention strategies to address obesity is recommended.

Predicting Obesity in Adults Using Machine Learning Techniques: An Analysis of Indonesian Basic Health Research 2018.

Obesity is strongly associated with multiple risk factors. It is significantly contributing to an increased risk of chronic disease morbidity and mortality worldwide. There are various challenges to better understand the association between risk factors and the occurrence of obesity. The traditional regression approach limits analysis to a small number of predictors and imposes assumptions of independence and linearity. Machine Learning (ML) methods are an alternative that provide information with a unique approach to the application stage of data analysis on obesity. This study aims to assess the ability of ML methods, namely Logistic Regression, Classification and Regression Trees (CART), and Naïve Bayes to identify the presence of obesity using publicly available health data, using a novel approach with sophisticated ML methods to predict obesity as an attempt to go beyond traditional prediction models, and to compare the performance of three different methods. Meanwhile, the main objective of this study is to establish a set of risk factors for obesity in adults among the available study variables. Furthermore, we address data imbalance using Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) to predict obesity status based on risk factors available in the dataset. This study indicates that the Logistic Regression method shows the highest performance. Nevertheless, kappa coefficients show only moderate concordance between predicted and measured obesity. Location, marital status, age groups, education, sweet drinks, fatty/oily foods, grilled foods, preserved foods, seasoning powders, soft/carbonated drinks, alcoholic drinks, mental emotional disorders, diagnosed hypertension, physical activity, smoking, and fruit and vegetables consumptions are significant in predicting obesity status in adults. Identifying these risk factors could inform health authorities in designing or modifying existing policies for better controlling chronic diseases especially in relation to risk factors associated with obesity. Moreover, applying ML methods on publicly available health data, such as Indonesian Basic Health Research (RISKESDAS) is a promising strategy to fill the gap for a more robust understanding of the associations of multiple risk factors in predicting health outcomes.